How many TH/s is currently needed to competently compete for each block...

franky1

legendary

Activity: 4410

Merit: 4766

Quote from: odolvlobo on February 26, 2017, 02:56:57 PM

In other words, you don't believe that probability and statistics are real.

Ok, then what are the percentages? How do you determine them? Show me how you know that 0.99% of the hash rate will get more than 50% of the blocks.

its not based on the entire network.
because all them small pools are adding hashpower 'to the network stats' but not solving blocks.

its more about the luck.
if you have more hashpower your going to get luckier because you are processing more hashes to actually find a result.

in short a block is not produced by combining all the hashpower of the network because each pool is separate.
the hashpower of the pool has more meaning than the hashpower of the network

EG
i could add 1 billion asics solo mining each. but never get a single block in a whole year.
even if them 1 billion asics are more than the network hashrate

all i would be doing is wasting electric

tertius993

hero member

Activity: 1029

Merit: 712

Quite: in the short term luck will have a big impact but in the long run statistics will win.

The problem of course being that as hash rate goes up and the difficulty increases, you will have to keep investing to maintain a given percentage of the total hash rate.

odolvlobo

legendary

Activity: 4466

Merit: 3391

Quote from: franky1 on February 26, 2017, 02:52:42 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on February 26, 2017, 02:49:36 PM

If you have X% of the total hash rate, then you will mine X% of the blocks. That's how it works.

In your example, the total hash rate is 5000 x 20 + 5 x 200 = 101000. The small miners will each mine 0.019% (20/101000) of the blocks and the big miners will each mine 0.19% (200/101000) of the blocks.

nope

its not fixed maths..
its LUCK

in short the large pools even with just 200peta or 101000peta will get the majority of blocks

In other words, you don't believe that probability and statistics are real.

Ok, then what are the percentages? How do you determine them? Show me how you know that 0.99% of the hash rate will get more than 50% of the blocks.

franky1

legendary

Activity: 4410

Merit: 4766

Quote from: odolvlobo on February 26, 2017, 02:49:36 PM

If you have X% of the total hash rate, then you will mine X% of the blocks. That's how it works.

In your example, the total hash rate is 5000 x 20 + 5 x 200 = 101000. The small miners will each mine 0.019% (20/101000) of the blocks and the big miners will each mine 0.19% (200/101000) of the blocks.

nope

its not fixed maths..
its LUCK

in short the large pools even with just 200peta or 101000peta will get the majority of blocks

odolvlobo

legendary

Activity: 4466

Merit: 3391

Quote from: franky1 on February 26, 2017, 02:31:28 PM

Quote from: JasonXG on February 26, 2017, 02:13:37 PM

Obviously you get your % chance of solving a block by comparing your hashrate to the hashrate of the entire network.

wrong.
there could be 5000 pools with under 20 peta each
and then 5 pools with 200peta each
it does not mean that for every 50th block one of the 5000 pools will get a block. - (where one small pool is a 50th of the large pools combined)
it does not even mean that over 5050 blocks every pool would have atleast 1 block - (where hashrate of network is divided by blocks produced equally)
also small pools 100000 vs bigpools 1000 totalling 101000 does not mean that the majority of blocks are solved by the small pools (where they have combined 100x(~90% of) hashrate)
the truth is that the 5 large pools will get more lucky to solve the blocks and the small pools will be waiting near forever

If you have X% of the total hash rate, then you will mine X% of the blocks. That's how it works.

In your example, the total hash rate is 5000 x 20 + 5 x 200 = 101000. The small miners will each mine 0.019% (20/101000) of the blocks and the big miners will each mine 0.19% (200/101000) of the blocks.

Kprawn

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1074

Quote from: piramida on February 25, 2017, 01:58:18 AM

even at 1 block a week average he could go several months without a block easily. so don't be financially responsible Wink

start small and join a pool, grow with experience - that is a much better way for a small miner. if you start investing 200k with no knowledge of details you will get burned.

I wonder what the best yield would be, if you mine that 1 block alone, compared to 1 or 2 blocks with a pool being shared with loads of other

people. Yes, you might be more lucky with the combined pool and you will have a steady income, but your yield might be lower? I have always

just mined in a pool, because I thought it would mean that you would get a steady income from that. Roll Eyes

franky1

legendary

Activity: 4410

Merit: 4766

Quote from: JasonXG on February 26, 2017, 02:13:37 PM

Obviously you get your % chance of solving a block by comparing your hashrate to the hashrate of the entire network.

wrong.

there could be 5000 pools with under 20 peta each
and then 5 pools with 200peta each

it does not mean that for every 50th block one of the 5000 pools will get a block. - (where one small pool is a 50th of the large pools combined)
it does not even mean that over 5050 blocks every pool would have atleast 1 block - (where hashrate of network is divided by blocks produced equally)

also small pools 100000 vs bigpools 1000 totalling 101000 does not mean that the majority of blocks are solved by the small pools (where small pools combined are 100x big pools(~99% of hashrate)

the truth is that the 5 large pools will get more lucky to solve the blocks and the small pools will be waiting near forever

JasonXG

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 500

Wow a st member asking this. I dont even know what to say. Did you go to school ?
Obviously you get your % chance of solving a block by comparing your hashrate to the hashrate of the entire network. Remember when you had cookies at school and had to device them ? Yes that's call arithmetic.

odolvlobo

legendary

Activity: 4466

Merit: 3391

Network hash rate is approximately 3800000 TH/s, so

To have a 1% chance of getting the next block, you need 38000 TH/s.
To have a 1% chance of getting at least one of the 144 blocks each day, you need 265 TH/s.

To have a 50% chance of getting the next block, you need 1900000 TH/s.
To have a 50% chance of getting at least one of the 144 blocks each a day, you need 18250 TH/s

bitillionaire

sr. member

Activity: 369

Merit: 250

phm.link

Quote from: piramida on February 25, 2017, 01:58:18 AM

even at 1 block a week average he could go several months without a block easily. so don't be financially responsible Wink

start small and join a pool, grow with experience - that is a much better way for a small miner. if you start investing 200k with no knowledge of details you will get burned.

I'm still not sure what kind of scratch he can actually raise. I'm setting the bar reasonably high to see how comfortable he is getting in at that price. Clearly if we will be more successful mining to a pool, we will do that.

piramida

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1010

Borsche

even at 1 block a week average he could go several months without a block easily. so don't be financially responsible Wink

start small and join a pool, grow with experience - that is a much better way for a small miner. if you start investing 200k with no knowledge of details you will get burned.

bitillionaire

sr. member

Activity: 369

Merit: 250

phm.link

Quote from: franky1 on February 25, 2017, 01:04:06 AM

antpool has 16.7% of the network with 550peta

works out as about 25peta if you want a good chance of 1 block a day

although luck plays a hand in it and having more hash increases the chances.
but without getting too detailed in all the if's and buts/ luck/chance/competition... if you stick to say 25peta

it works out as about 1800-2000 bitmain s9 asics(13.5th).

.. based on very simplified quick maths. as there's no point trying to do accurate maths because there is no 'guarantee'.
like i said its based on averages, luck and chance.

Thanks.

I consulted elsewhere and we determined that to hit 1 block a week, the real minimum is around 75 bitmain s9s.

The guy I'm asking for's goal was only 1 block per month, however, but I won't give him advice at any lower than 75 bitmain s9s with proper upgrades as necessary and no expectation of actual earnings.

franky1

legendary

Activity: 4410

Merit: 4766

antpool has 16.7% of the network with 550peta

works out as about 25peta if you want a good chance of 1 block a day

although luck plays a hand in it and having more hash increases the chances.
but without getting too detailed in all the if's and buts/ luck/chance/competition... if you stick to say 25peta

it works out as about 1800-2000 bitmain s9 asics(13.5th).

.. based on very simplified quick maths. as there's no point trying to do accurate maths because there is no 'guarantee'.
like i said its based on averages, luck and chance.

bitillionaire

sr. member

Activity: 369

Merit: 250

phm.link

of Bitcoin block rewards?

Asking for a friend who is examining the mining industry.

Thanks.

Topic: How many TH/s is currently needed to competently compete for each block... (Read 557 times)