how many whales are trading in the last 24 hours from analyzing the blockchain?

franklin2058

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Quote from: franklin2058 on August 06, 2021, 02:48:06 AM

how many whales are trading in the last 24 hours from analyzing the blockchain?

In other words, how many whale active addresses are there?

Please give me specific steps to know this in confidence from analyzing the blockchain. I just downloaded the full blockchain. I can obtain the data from glassnode, but I would like to check it for my self.

Thanks in advance.

NOBODY answers my question, just some useless comments, so I guess I have to read the source code by myself.

Sterbens

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Activity: 1848

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Duelbits.com

It's hard to get that far in detecting the whole thing you're trying to find. Because it will take a long time, it's not even possible to find a pattern that refers to a particular address which they will avoid, in order to maintain anonymity.

joniboini

legendary

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Maybe you have to define what do you mean by whales first. Address who holds 1 BTC and above? Or more? Keep in mind that whales won't use their main wallet to trade, so don't be fooled. Who knows for sure if those hundreds of addresses holding 1 BTC are controlled by one person?

As an alternative, you can also monitor exchange addresses and track big deposits. It's not accurate but probably better than blindly searching from millions of BTC addresses.

Ararbermas

sr. member

Activity: 2016

Merit: 283

I think whales is more on long term and i never heard that they preferred short term because in my view for them it's just a waste of time. Maybe you said that because of the candles in the chart that suddenly shows a false break out and suddenly continually decreasing, if I'm correct then you have a wrong thoughts mate. Because there's a different story behind of every candles in chart wherein no whales are involved especially within 24hours. Seems impossible to be honest and how they can make good return from it?

fillippone

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Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

Quote from: pooya87 on August 06, 2021, 03:00:56 AM

Trades don't take place on the blockchain, instead majority of bitcoin trading takes place on centralized exchanges.

Exactly, whales trade on the OTC (Over The Counter) desks, seldom associated with an exchange.
The whale deposits his bitcoin on an exchange, the OTC desks trades with an opposite interest outside of the books visible by anyone, then the whale withdraw the stablecoin resulting from the sell (of course the opposite side of the trade does the opposite transaction).

So, while the magic happens outside of the blockchain, we still see the deposit/withdraw at the exchange.

Quote from: odolvlobo on August 06, 2021, 02:55:32 AM

I am extremely skeptical of any statements by anyone saying that "whales did this" or "whales did that". It is impossible to accurately associate addresses with people or companies just by analyzing the blockchain. Even with heuristics and advanced surveillance techniques, I don't believe anyone can be as accurate as they want you to believe.

Of course you are right: every blockchain analysis does an heuristic-based deduction on what is visible on the public ledger.
This is also the very reason why every blockchain analysis based is deeply flawed (Taproot is going to potentially fix that).

tranthidung

legendary

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Whales don't trade like tiny investors. They are hodlers so they do neither use all their Bitcoin to trade nor trade too regularly.

You can get some overview on whale distributions & on-chain activities with following resources. In the past 30 days, there are around 150k BTC was withdrawn from exchanges. [1]

They are for on-chain activities but you can not connect them to trading activities.

[1] https://www.viewbase.com/exchange

Bitcoin_Arena

copper member

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฿itcoin for all, All for ฿itcoin.

You only get to know about Whales on chain when they move the Bitcoins from one address to another, but you won't be able to know when they traded once the Bitcoins are off chain (in centralized exchanges) So there no way of getting answer to your question

Maybe you can use the net cash in flow and out flow, to and from exchanges respectively, but still you can't single out whales in this case.

Husires

legendary

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You must identify whales and accordingly you can analyze the blockchain to see how many currencies are moved daily.
Most of the whale's movements are in foreign markets or indirect investment in derivatives stocks or GBTC.
You can record all bitcoin blockchain data and then know the directions of the whales, but it will not help you to accurately predict the price.

Rely on third parties for analysis and you will find more accurate data than doing it yourself, glassnode for example.

GreatArkansas

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Quote from: fillippone on August 06, 2021, 06:35:04 PM

Glassnode has a few interesting statistics about whales.
(.....)

Another alternative here is CryptoQuant[https://cryptoquant.com/]. But these kinds of platforms is on-chain analysis only.
So we can't able to see what's happening inside the exchanges. But I believee that there are still some whales using the chain to make their move, like manipulating somehow the onchain analysis so they can have better trading position.

fillippone

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Glassnode has a few interesting statistics about whales.
For example, look at this post.

Also, you can look at the graph reported just above the mentioned post.

odolvlobo

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Quote from: franklin2058 on August 06, 2021, 03:21:07 AM

Quote from: odolvlobo on August 06, 2021, 02:55:32 AM

I am extremely skeptical of any statements by anyone saying that "whales did this" or "whales did that". It is impossible to accurately associate addresses with people or companies just by analyzing the blockchain. Even with heuristics and advanced surveillance techniques, I don't believe anyone can be as accurate as they want you to believe.

I do NOT want to "associate addresses with people or companies", I DO know there are addresses with large balances, I would like to know which address is changing its balance.

It's easy to "know which address is changing its balance" by looking at the block chain, but that information says nothing about whales and nothing about trading. Simply stated, you cannot determine who is trading what by looking at the block chain because trading is done completely off-chain.

On the other hand, DeFi protocols on Ethereum might be a different situation.

franklin2058

jr. member

Activity: 49

Merit: 3

Quote from: Rehan Zakir on August 06, 2021, 08:29:39 AM

I want to ask you that please tell me that how you do this. Downloading full block chain data is a difficult task and then check the whole data from this meta data. and then calculate the whales addresses. This whole process is a very lengthy task and also very difficult. If you calculate all the details so please tell the number of addresses and the date and time when you monitor.

Downloading full block chain data is NOT a difficult task. calculate the whales addresses is what I want to asked so I don't know.

Rehan Zakir

member

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I want to ask you that please tell me that how you do this. Downloading full block chain data is a difficult task and then check the whole data from this meta data. and then calculate the whales addresses. This whole process is a very lengthy task and also very difficult. If you calculate all the details so please tell the number of addresses and the date and time when you monitor.

franklin2058

jr. member

Activity: 49

Merit: 3

Quote from: odolvlobo on August 06, 2021, 02:55:32 AM

I am extremely skeptical of any statements by anyone saying that "whales did this" or "whales did that". It is impossible to accurately associate addresses with people or companies just by analyzing the blockchain. Even with heuristics and advanced surveillance techniques, I don't believe anyone can be as accurate as they want you to believe.

I do NOT want to "associate addresses with people or companies", I DO know there are addresses with large balances, I would like to know which address is changing its balance.

pooya87

legendary

Activity: 3472

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Trades don't take place on the blockchain, instead majority of bitcoin trading takes place on centralized exchanges. So instead of blockchain analysis you should ask a centralized exchange to give you access to their database so that you can analyze what everyone is doing. Obviously they won't do that.

What you see some people do (like the scam site known as whalealert) is looking at the transactions and whenever it suites their trading goals they release it as a whale selling or buying bitcoin. Obviously no-one can know what that transaction was. Even if you can say for sure that it was from or to an exchange you still can't know if it was a buy/sell.

odolvlobo

legendary

Activity: 4466

Merit: 3391

I am extremely skeptical of any statements by anyone saying that "whales did this" or "whales did that". It is impossible to accurately associate addresses with people or companies just by analyzing the blockchain. Even with heuristics and advanced surveillance techniques, I don't believe anyone can be as accurate as they want you to believe.

franklin2058

jr. member

Activity: 49

Merit: 3

how many whales are trading in the last 24 hours from analyzing the blockchain?

In other words, how many whale active addresses are there?

Please give me specific steps to know this in confidence from analyzing the blockchain. I just downloaded the full blockchain. I can obtain the data from glassnode, but I would like to check it for my self.

Thanks in advance.

Topic: how many whales are trading in the last 24 hours from analyzing the blockchain? (Read 178 times)