Topic: How much can you predict this sh*t?! Or is it pure gamble? (Read 730 times)

Could technical analysis predict Elon Musk's statements or China's statements? Could technical analysis predict that BNB would become 680 from 20 USD? Could technical analysis predict that Zcash would immediately drop from the very first day ATH and never ever reaching that one?

What can technical analysis predict in an emotionally driven market? I guess, nothing significant.

I guess that's purely risky with pure gamble when it comes to shtcoins. Joining presale and the sell after the listed. Some project team rug the project. I experienced joining the presale and get scam. I didn't do it ever again. Trading is lot harder but if I do it properly with some knowledge and combination of TA and FA, I know I can get profit.  It takes time and hard work before you can get profit in trading, there are times that you really doubt yourself unlike others that they have already background in trading like stocks and forex trading.

Technical analysis will not help you if someone decides to sell a large amount of bitcoins at the market price to buy a house or a yacht.  And if this amount of BTC is really large, it will lead to a sharp decline in the price and possibly cause stop loss sales, which will again lead to a further decline in the price.

if you really updated on the project where you make an investment then for sure you can prevent such scenario. Indeed most of the reason that can really affect the project nowadays is from social media.. If you used to visit the social media using some related content about the project or making research then you're smart investor, what i mean every day you always have an information such what's the situation of the project and etc just to prevent such scenario in my opinion.

Trading will be not gamble if we did it with knowledge and patience. On the any market, there are always 2 trend, that is bearish and bullish. We can predict it when that trend start and when will end from the history of the market. From my analysis, the trend of bullish market will happening for every 3-4 year. If we look closely, the history of crypto market, we can see 3 time of Bitcoin bull run and then turn in to bearish. I think for the dumped of currently market will end and bounce back later because this market still on bullish period.

Investing or trading shitcoins/memecoins/hyped coins should always be considered as a short term venture. You cannot expect to hold a shit coin or in simple words, a coin that has no value outside its market price because that would eventually result in loss and almost very rarely profit. Imagine someone holding dogecoins when it was something like $0.001 or so and now they can say they are millionaires but that was pure luck and this happens like once in a billion times.

Predicting the price of any cryptocurrency is nearly impossible because you don't know how many traders and investors are there and what they feel about the coin. But at least when you invest in a utility coin, you can rest assured that someday people will realize the potential and then you reap rewards.

Well, there are other reasons as well like the announcements being made in the market be it Paypal supporting bitcoins purchase or be it Musk disapproving the bitcoin payments for his company. The market doesn't completely rely on these news but at least it gives a hint in which direction the market will move.

Some other reasons for dump might be competition in the market. A lot of people started selling their Ethereum when they heard a new giant is coming in the name of PolkaDot but I don't think that was true as Ethereum continues to grow. If a better coin than Bitcoin arrives in the market, which although is hard, I am sure the popularity of Bitcoin will take a hit.

If you are planning to invest or buying one of the Shitc**ns this is not a pure gamble instead it is a pure risky to invest.
Maybe out of 100% there is only 5% chances for you to get earnings with it dude in my own assessment. Though, for now I cannot deny a lot of the shitcoins in the market are rising while bitcoin price value was down. But just like the other says do it at your own risk.

You can really compare between the two into those traders or investors who do make use of technicals and to those who do just blindly make out some moves without any basis.
There are really differences to those who are experience and to those who are just starting or doesnt really know much about these things.Its not pure gamble
if you do apply something on it like some sort of analysis that you made up. Predicting is always been hard due to lots of factors
but due to experience you would able to sustain yourself.

Well, TA and Fundamental analysis are a part of trading. Though it was accepted that we can't predict the exact price of Bitcoin nor seeing its direction but it is a need for us to make market analysis and continue doing that, and why? Because it was necessary and that TA's places an important role in trading otherwise, you will be badly. And you can see a big difference when are trading knowing nothing compared to when you have some idea of what is going on in the market.

The market is very volatile and unpredictable, no matter the amount of indicators you make use of they can't still tell the future, they can only help you know whee the market is heading, no technical analysis is 100% correct, that's why you see even prefessional traders have losing trades, prices go up when there are goodnews and vice versa for price going down, that's why you need both technical analysis and fundamental to predict market movements.

There is always a pattern in the crypto market, I believe that technical analysis is a strong way that traders could rely on. Support/Resistance,  Historical Data, Market patterns, and other factors matters that can help people raise their winning chance in trading. Those reasons for pump and dump that you provided were justifiable but if the market doesn't react on technicals, why would traders study hard learning all about charts?

There's no such patter because this market doesnt really react on technicals on precise manner so its really hard to tell.
Reasons for rise?
1. Adoption/Recognition
2. Hype/Shill
3. Unknown factor(Increase by its own)

Reason for dumps?
1. FUD
2. Hacking incidents
3. Profit taking
4. Again, no actual reason

This is a very nice way to put it since those are words everyone can understand, the traders that are successful do not really try to predict when or at what level the price will turn around or things like that, they try to enter the market when a specific setup happens.

They do this because they know the particular setup they are chasing has a higher probability to give them profits than if they just entered the market randomly, this is why good traders can spend full days or even weeks without making a single trade as not a single setup takes place, but once it does they are decisive and enter the market as soon as it happens, and as you say if someone could predict what the market will do in an accurate way then that person very quickly would become one of the richest persons around the world even if his capital was minimal, which is why predicting what the market will do accurately is impossible.

yes, but the existence of large disposals by owners of large capital can certainly affect market prices. sometimes it can be detrimental and beneficial to some people

It's because no one truly knows where the market will head to in the next minutes that the SL (Stop Loss) is advised to be used. Trading is highly speculative in nature. Some people have even likened it to gambling (which it isn't, anyway). Perhaps may be because it also has the same risk which gambling has. But generally life itself is risk just like every other business is. On what pushes price up, I will say it's FOMO. Nothing else. The fear of missing out creates the urgent demand for a certain project and that gets more people struggling to buy in without knowing why others started buying in the first place. This scramble causes more people to buy at whatever price that's available for them and price goes up more.

There are some specific things that cause market price to go up which block halving is one of the thing, market manipulation, good news, influential person or company accumulation, mining diffculty, level of market demand and supply.

market manipulation (though it help in price increase but it also use to cause dump in price either), fud news, influential person or company exit, mining diffculty, level of market demand and supply.


We can tell when it will happen but the market will bounce back up when it reaches the resistance level though we seem to currently be in altcoin season.

You could win if you have patience.
Many were get mad on the market because they fail to get their target price, they even send more complaints about their losses but they didn't find out that it was their fault.
Buy low and sell high but sometimes it happens that it changes to Buy low and sell Low.

People must have to understand how volatility works. It is natural to see that the market moves up and down, and there is no way to tell exactly what will happen next. If we could say that this just like a gamble, life is a gamble anyway, the same as investing.

If the holder, who has thousands of bitcoins in his account, decides that he urgently needs a yacht and he sells BTC at the market price, this will entail a dump of bitcoin, and with it the dump of the entire market. So very often, such spontaneous decisions to sell BTC have nothing to do with politics or any other news.

sometimes analysis can approach accuracy in reading market price movements, but as we know in a matter of seconds the predictions we believe can change drastically because they are confused by whales who are able to pump and dump at any time

No one can really say, it's just like a gamble, though I wouldn't call it a gamble lol, they are two different things. But same way that you will have to do some research on bets and know which one team is likely to win or lose or what's likely to be the score, that's similar to what you're doing in technical analysis. In technical analysis, you don't really get the actual price of what the asset is going to be in the near future, it's just like you're guessing what it's going to be by using some patterns that shows you what's likely to be the next outcome.

So it's just like a 50/50 thing, and you have to go by that and knowing very well that this may happen, and if not, then it's going to be the other. And that's just how it's meant to be, because I can't imagine what it would be like if everyone is hundred percent certain of what is going to be the next move in the market, just can't imagine that.

There is high probability that top coin will recover after some drop especially now during the bull run. From my experience, price go down often during the weekend and also the trading volume go down also. However, the price pickup back during the week. This is not always the case but it happen most often

well , its not pure gamble , the sentiment like policy etc also contributes to the price of btc or altcoin , even though mostly for shitcoin, its just go high for no reason. from now on , almost every week we got pumped and dumped heavly , as long u confident , u still win on this bull season.

I cannot agree or accept your point. Market is moved by whales but not all the times. When individuals like you and me are trading in same direction, we will make impact like whales and I do believe these days, this kind of market movements are happening time to time, by considering the adoption level of bitcoins globally.

Yeah reputed coins and technical parts are perfect combination to make easy profits from crypto markets and when we are trading with the help of technical and fundamental analysis then trading is becoming a scientific approach and definitely not a gamble.

I guess we can use any analysis, based on many factors, and that can give us an idea about where the price is heading! But that will not work all the time, simply new players and whales can disturb the market and push the price in the way they like, and that can be different from our plans! So it's not like there's some strategy or analysis that can help all the time, sometimes you simply need to rely on your intuition and do what you think it's the best! It's not a pure gamble if you are trading with well-known coins, but if you trading with some shitcoins, where most coins are pump and dump schemes then it is pure gambling!

The market was too unpredictable and very difficult to determine what could be the price of the coin we hold it now.
Now if the price value in the market is getting high or low it is simply because there are whales behind to control the
market, this is the main reason for the movement of the price for sure anyway.

That's too risky especially in trading, we should have our own analysis to fully understand the market and this makes you more profitable.
In terms of predicting the market price, it is still not sure even if you do your analysis because cryptomarket is very volatile and if you're going to predict the price of shitcoins, that's pure gambling because no one predicted that price accurately, its about hype for every shitcoins, they are just scalpers for sure.

Even you have exemplary skills you can never know the market direction. You can simply make a prediction but not we can say that it is correct. I have to praise you or to anyone of he can do that because ever since there's no one.
Jut to believe that the market will remain decentralized and unpredictable. Although there is such market manipulation made by whales still not a thing that could change.

It depends on the market news because when Tesla purchased a big chunk of Bitcoins, for example, it was obvious the price of Bitcoins will rise and it did by some decent value.

But, when fake news is out and there are rumors about something then it is hard to distinguish and movement can be different from what we expected. At the same time, if you are skilled then you can easily identify market direction accurately. Hence, predicting market trend is completely different from gambling. So, do not get confused yourself.

This much I can answer for you. Price goes up when the demand for Bitcoin increases in the market or there are more investors in the market because of moves like Paypal allowing the purchase of bitcoins. The price drops when the demand decreases while the supply is increasing which is rare actually because the bitcoins are limited and supply is always going to shrink slowly but surely.

The only reason BTC might ever fall off would be is some other coin matches and surpasses Bitcoin in terms of popularity and use cases.

if you have more learning on how the market moves you can predict it more accurately . This is not pure gambling where all works randomly

Price go up when someone buys and price goes down when someone's sells .
Both works effectively if the action is done in large volumes . you will know if your one of it that sells or buy and you can also know if you watch and read news , social media and other sources but make sure they are legit because false information will not move the price in a right direction .
That's the pattern that all are following until now

The core reasons for rise and fall of the market is supply and demand. But having information on supply and demand alone will not make a person to predict the direction of market easily. This is the reason, we are going for technical and fundamental analysis. So, it is still predictable rise and fall hence it cannot be gambling unlike OP mentioning.

Through mathematical formula. Yeah, every technical analysis is based on maths hence we can rely on them. A scientific approach may not fail for no reasons hence all analyzing methods are working one always.

Indeed, pure gambling would not be an exact definition as the analytical tools each have their own contributions, they are not a random occurrence, they are the values of experience accumulation, helping users to link images of the past and perceive the future. This prediction cannot be one hundred percent accurate or represent the whole picture of the market, it is just a piece of the puzzle for us to see the layout, following the right layouts and plans will have a clearer view of the future picture and vice versa, blind perception and lack of connection will make us turn mind games into gambling

for the problem of the pattern of rising or falling prices I think this is a classic questionable thing. What caused it? I think this is a question whose answer is analysis. by doing analysis and research we can find out what the main factors are the decline and increase.
well, then how do you analyze it? here everyone has their own method of analysis, we cannot equate people's answers here because there are different methods. so I think this method is workable

Not always bouncing back because still lower to low is possible. So, there cannot be anything in pre-assumed way. But, you need to make use of technical things to predict market rather than going for assuming anything by your own. If you are making use of your intuition power to predict the turning point of markets then also you got only half chances to hit what you want .

Predicting market direction will be possible only through kind of mathematical process. There are different kinds of strategies are available to predict market directions still there will be no guarantee for effective predictions of market direction because it is having lots of factor to influence it.

TA knowledge is not sufficient in crypto market, it may help you understand what's going on but when it comes to specific alts, they behave differently and you need to consider some factors like development progress, capability of the dev team, community support, trading volume and others. And also, if you are following a specific project, you need to subscribe their social media channels because you will get a hint on what may possibly happen because they will give some insights on what's going on. I found out that most projects here are more active in socmed than in their respective ANN threads.

You nailed it. Even if you have you TA or know to analyze and read the market chart this will not guarantee a 100% outcome because sometimes there are few sudden factors that could affect the movement of a particular coin. But with the help of analysis, it mitigates the risk of losing your trades. It would be only a gamble if we trade without taking any analysis. Loss is just normal, it is part of trading, not all the time you will have a fruitful outcome and you should know it.

At past my pattern only buy above buy wall, sometimes it is work. But if keep dump i set order again above another buy wall in less price. I think that is my trading way and although not much analysis honestly but i don't think that i gambling with it.

That is not news. Whoever needs to be told they will not get all their predictions right, are surely in the wrong sector!

Candlestick analysis? High percentage to gain income? Which world did you come teleport out from? This is crypto:) People make money doing shitty TAs in bullruns and lose doing fantastic TAs in bear markets;)

It's not 100% a gamble. You use history, technical analysis, and a possible movement due to people hyping a coin.
When you start considering all of that, you lessen the risk of losing in short or long runs. It's difficult, but it's better than just blindly buying and selling right?
Chances of you winning the trade gets higher and it's more satisfying if you make profits. Lose some and learn from the mistakes you've done. Win and identify how you did it then savor the moments.

Others are relying on past and historical performance that's why there's always repetitive speculation whenever the price goes up or down.

To avoid confusion on what to do, don't read other's views but instead, make your own analysis about the current trend.

No one will know for sure when the price will go up and when the price will go down, this is indeed true. Looking at the news and market conditions does not fully guarantee certain price fluctuations either. We will not also know what percentage of profits and losses we will get with certainty either. Therefore, the importance of technical analysis. Talking about technical analysis, of course, cannot be separated from the charts that are used to view and monitor price movements in the market. The use of these charts is very important for monitoring the price movements of various assets in the financial markets. From this chart / graph, it makes it easier for traders to read and find out previous patterns of price movements, then make an analysis of future price movements.

Although our predictions and analysis are not certain to be true, at least we have a price record, past price chart recordings can also be used as a benchmark to compare it with the current price chart. To read price movements in the market we also need to use the right timeframe, and adjust it to the type of trading being carried out, such as if you want to do daily trading, then we can use the medium timeframe, namely D1 and after that look for the highest and lowest prices in that time. that you have taken. If we can read the chart, it will make it easier for us in the future, so that we can predict where the price will move in the future.

Prediction is the easiest way to do, everyone can do this but to ask if we have got the correct prediction? None for sure.
It is a 50/50 and the chances are either to gain profit or lose your money. It is pure gamble right but sadly, many times that we got unlucky.

Anyway, people are happy doing this. And I don't think this gonna be an issue since we are doing this before. That is why I keep my prediction alone, I'd never share coz they can do themselves as well. And besides, there is no right and wrong prediction but all of this are just uncertain.

Indeed, there are no traders who can predict 100% accurately, because there are many things that can make the coins we buy change suddenly.
So no matter how good the analysis we do to predict coin price movements, we won't always be able to make a profit when trading. So it is normal
if we experience losses when trading, most importantly the percentage of losses that we experience is not more than the percentage of our winnings.

it is hard to say that in trading it is not 100% that all of your prediction is accurate but if you know how to analyze and reading candlestick you have high percentage in gaining income.yes you gamble in that coin but it is part of trading, not all the time you are gaining sometimes you lose and it is normal for traders and investors.

You shouldn't do futures trading if you still don't understand it. I think the idea of asking which coin your friend have bought is a good start for new traders.

But as time passes, you'll have your own reference and you're going to learn from your own experience which shall make you rely on your own experience. And those coins that you've bought, they're all good to me.

It would really be a gamble if you were just trying to predict the movement of the prices that it why traders are using indicators and having knowledge on technical analysis as well as being able to understand and get to know the coin very well to help out on doing decision on what is supposed to do on different situation when it comes to trading. You were too lucky if what you were doing on your trading is all out of prediction. There are other ways traders do their thing assessing and dealing with certain coins enabling them to get along the market having successful trades.

Honestly, in trading i'm pure gamble. I have zero experience in analysis and sometimes only ask my friend what coin that he bought or maybe do future trading in which coin. Coins that i bought myself usually only BTC, ETH, or BNB which i will hold for longer time and sell when get a little profit.

Going back on crypto market into those early years then price movement is never been predictable ever since even up to now but the thing i do notice that
wayback technical analysis doesnt really bite or shall we say it not really that effective because price volatility could easily fucked you up
but now based up on observation on where it is somehow following those TA's.Im aint sure on this one but only based on observation and
i might be wrong.

those coins from ICO's which really pain in the ass, a lots of people got scammed since the developers just ride with crypto's popularity back then, we have to realized that in current situation where more institutional investors are involved.

They managed to review and assess the ful potential of this industry, with them working inside this market we can see more and more growth and those who are in the top list gained much better attentions, you've got to take some time to assess and do your good research in order to participate and invest with teams that have a much better views for future success of their projects.

Crypto market now is way different from 2017 to 2018 puma and dump due to many indicators and influential people and companies we're involved now in crypto market. What we can learn from 2018 dump is that there are really altcoins from ICO which are not worth saving as they can do exit scam anytime. We can focus on analysing top altcoins or be active in trading to know which coin have potential for some growth in just a short time and take advantage of that to trade.

Trading is not completely gambling. You can control your outcomes. When gambling, you don't know what the results are going to be. There are no data, nothing that can help you predict what's going to happen next. But in case of trading, you have some control over the outcomes. There are indicators that allows you to know what might happen next. If an event takes place that might negatively affect the crypto market, we know what's going to happen. Again, when an event takes place which favors the crypto market, we also then know what's going to happen, right? And then there are those people that just gets lucky haha (look at doge. Anyone who owned large amount of doge at the beginning of the year is already drowning in profits).

It's a demand and supply market. Most of the BTC and ETH lately are going out of the exchanges compared to how much they are coming in so you can easily say that the demand is the same but supply is getting low. Obviously, the price will increase. If you are talking about short-term pumps and dumps then there is nothing to pin point for these. These happen when someone creates a panic FUD or fake news may be, which is FOMO. Most of the short-term trading is a pure gamble but in the long run, you can see the implementation and the reflection of that on the price.

First, based on my level of knowledge, very low liquidity causes a coin to go up like 50 or over percent when there is a buy and also go down the same percentage or even more when there is a sell, for both scenarios, the percentage the coin goes up or down when there is a buy or sell depend on the amount being traded on those two sides.
It is not even advisable to trade on coins like this cus buying can be easy but selling is always a pain in the butt cus close to zero wants to buy the coin which is the reason for the low liquidity.
But for already established coins, it's is slightly possible to predict when the coin will go up or down if you know how to read chart and do TA which in full is technical analysis and FA which in full is fundamental analysis, I believe with this two skills and the ability to read chart, one can predict what next is going to happen to a coin, whether it's gonna go up or down.

I have been a gambler myself and I have traded cryptocurrencies too and I can say that both are there are some differences in both.
Winning in gambling is purely out of luck unless we play those poker games and similar games where we can use strategies to defeat the opponent.
Trading is similar to gambling when we invest in shitcoins in the hope of higher returns.
Trading is better than gambling when we invest in potential coins and do technical as well as fundamental analysis on it.
I have recently started learning technical analysis and I have gained some profits due to this.
With all the experience I have I can say that trading has a little edge over gambling.

its quite difficult for some people to chart and understand the market direction, to these kinds of people trading will be like a gamble. untill you the knowledge of supply and demand, high and low and the like you will always think trading is a gamble. its usually obvious when its at the bottom for any good trader and at the top.

Impossible if your prediction is correct correctly, if there is someone who can do it many times you should be careful. maybe he's not human. Even if your prediction is so sure with 70% it might not happen in the next few times. Everyone can only analyze what will happen next. Maybe you can learn how to chart a coin price in the market. but it is only learning by prediction, not learning what will happen later. If you can guess 100% certainty with the increase in the price of the coins that you hold maybe I can learn from you.

One of the most important thing about the crypto market is that no one can accurately predict the market all of the time. You should know that even the accuracy  is not 100%. It is possible to predict the market accurately (not with 100% certainty) some of the time, but no one can predict it accurately all of the time.
The only reason it seems as though some of the power to predict the market is because they've come to understand the technical analysis of the market and know to reach formed chart patterns of the market. That is why it seems as though, their predictions come true.
Understand technical analysis and you'd be able to do this as well

That's the definitive answer to that question in my opinion because if prediction is as accurate as we wish it to be then probably we will be fighting each other because our predictions do not match and will not be of interest to everyone so we will actively try to change the future. We should know by now with all the movies about future predictions gone wrong, it will be bad for us.

i agree.. Using indicators can help but not 100% accurate and you still need more time and results before you can predict the movement of the growth rate. Its like a gamble actually i can say that also as it becomes more unpredictable especially when the market start struggling.. But using some indicators or tools sometimes its more easier to win than gambling..  

Ps. Only knowledge and skills is a must when it comes to this situation OP so better to learn some important stuff about trading to prevent risky situation..

Its easy to predict but you have no guarantee that it will happen especially if you are dealing with the shitcoins. The market moves so fast for a busy person so if you don't have enough time to spend on this market, you'd better hold good coins and wait until it reaches your target price. This market is pure of risk and luck most of the time, no one knows if that specific project will boom or not, so this can also be considered as gambling especially the altcoins.

Perhaps, you are answering it already "Nobody knows" and definitely there is no pattern to show us. It all becoming unpredictable and no one could change it. We are here just to make a prediction and the fact that we live that way for so long, we don't need to wonder if we our prediction is wrong because that it is really it was, none have done so well. All predictions are not 100% accurate so bear it.

Supply and Demand works for the good coins but if you’re dealing with the shitcoins, I guess its more of a hype that dictate the price and price manipulation that it makes pump and dump. TA also works with good coins if you know how to use it, but TA is useless with the shitcoins. You have to know first on where to trade or invest.

I believe it is sometimes luck, and sometimes predicting. How? Well if you can read the carts and know what indicators are and how to use them, you can "predict" what will happen, sometimes what you say will happen and that is great, and sometimes it will not happen and something else will happen and you will be unlucky. No chart is a guaranteed to be correct, sometimes unexpected stuff happens, sometimes someone tweets about it .

So we can't guarantee charts, there is a chance as much as it could be right, it could be wrong as well. This means you are "gambling" but at least with a data and not just shooting a dart in the dark type of deal, and if you are lucky those data should happen without any outside impact, and if you are unlucky then something unexpected would happen and that is going to make you wrong. So there is one part (TA) that makes you predicting somethings, but it is also luck as well.

No one knows exactly where the price will go. In the case of a dump, you need to wait for how the price of the coin will behave at the support level. The main thing is not to rush to open an order. In the event of a breakdown of support, you need to open a short. If you see that the price has rebounded, open long.

The pattern that you can compare it with is through looking at the past bull run of 2017. You get the idea how low it could be the market can and reach after the bull run.
And about knowing and getting some idea when the price should go up, there's really no way to find it if there will be an instant rise. But you check the news as it's one of the indicators and to become better, you need to be a good chart reader.

It is simply supply and demand, OP.
Just like what pooya87 said, what particular coin are you pointing at?
Bitcoin is unstable and you should know that.

I rely solely on technical analysis, especially in a hectic and volatile market. So, from my four years of trading experience, I can say that with a greater degree of probability it is possible to predict a maximum of 3-5 candlesticks. This is what I do. I'll take a small profit from the movement and sleep well.

I can tell you that you are true. I tried to do some trading (usually I do holding) and my friend did much better with his feel and hyped coins. I was doing analysis and he did much better over the last month.

Trend is your friend. Just follow this instruction and you will never be lost.

At the moment, cryptocurrency is the trend of the world so that making money with it is simple. Just put your money in a good project as well as well manage your fund well and you will definitely make a great income here. This "trend pattern" has a high correct percentage so don't doubt it

What I know for many people who know when it goes up and down is with analysis techniques and several indicators and with how much news happens this can also lead to a reference where prices can go up and down but what I know they look at the chart and analyze it there. not necessarily accurate.
Actually there is a lot that has to be combined, usually it can happen when one of them doesn't enter, so that's where we have to understand yet in this matter, and well this is actually shitcoin going like gambling no one knows even now only news can bring their direction.

With so many people who lose, I think there are not a few people who consider it a gamble, but if we can see it from a business perspective, then I don't think this is the case. of course everything in trading is an opportunity and we have to make that opportunity to make a profit. but many people are greedy here.

If there is one trader who knows to predict this stuff or the market price movement accurately, it might be that trader is the richest man in the crypto space.  The crypto market price isn't predictable or unpredictable, there's no way to know the future result even though people trying to have strategies on it (FA or FA analysis).  By the way, I'd to tell you that the price will go down if it goes down, there's no infinite Bitcoin always on the high price, and also know that you can't control its movement.

You need more practice in trading and meanwhile knowing that trading is a sort of gambling.

What coin are we talking about here?

If you want to know what causes the price to go up, there are plenty of reasons why it goes like that especially this bull season there's a lot of factors you can think of but it doesn't mean it won't go down. So just like what you said, it could be a 50/50 chance it would go up or down because this is due to some reasons and one of the reason is the movement of the traders plus the news it could affect almost everything.

Altcoins and Bitcoin may move on their own depending on what the news brings and the traders movement. It may look like a gamble but there are plenty of ways to predict where the price would headed.

Well, predictions here at least have some form of basis, though their movement depending on that basis is actually a hit or miss. Basis' can still be gathered and studied, assumptions can be made that has actual backing and reasoning, but the movement of charts would still end up being 50/50 no matter what. It's predictable, yes, with the right basis and factors, but it can also be said to be a complete gamble since the "right" factors and basis is rather unknown to you, not to mention that the market basis is quite vague at times plus, add that to its high volatility.

Plus, if it was that easy to predict the market, everyone would be rich ngl.

Predict or pure gamble? I think it depends on the person who is doing trading. If he is using technical analysis learned from youtube tutorials or from a friend, I think it is more on predicting how the market and price charts will go. But if we say gambling, we do not do analysis or we do not look on price charts when we decide to buy a coin.
Causes of prices? I am not good at this actually but recently I noticed that whales or big time investors makes the price hype like Elon musk. Another is the demand and supply of a coin. Like on our Economics subject, if demands becomes higher than the supply the price rise.

It seems you are having a hard time trading these days.

Yes, it tough to trades when it's choppy. It's difficult to trade with these kinds of price actions, especially sideways, and Bitcon does sideways too.

Trading is a gamble when you enter on a trade without any basis, like only random. Technical analysis is your friend, candle patterns, momentum indicators, moving averages, supports, and resistances, etc. will help you slightly to spot if price go up or down.

I also agree with you that good and bad news have a lot of influence but in some cases it often depends on luck. Even if the market movement is very good predict may not be profitable for a long time, but all in all you have to make a decision on how much risk you are willing to take. all of the above have tried to give you an idea but in the case of trading with the good and bad news indicators are much more important.

the trend could be predicted but the price will not exactly be predicted. it's a pure gamble when suddenly a coin would just rankup without notice. but it's the same situation when a coin is pumping up despite the chart indicating that it can't sustain the price. you could only say it's manipulated but then it's still profitable to not sell if you haven't done it yet.

You forgot to mention what "this" is? Is it bitcoin, some particular altcoin you have in mind, altcoins in general or tokens? They each are different.

Generally speaking you can't predict altcoin movements because their movements are always based on pump and dumps and as manipulations go, a P&D is not predictable ever.

But movements of a particular altcoin or token can be predicted at certain times. For example we all know that tokens that are released are going to be dumped after release as soon as the team holding the majority of it gains access to idiots who are willing to pay money for the vaporware. Or an altcoin that is pumped out of nowhere and has run out of steam is going to get dumped soon.
Same with their pumps, there are certain signs to the shitcoin pumpers. For example they start hyping that shitcoin with some irrelevant news such as its having, release of some new software version, an arbitrary fork, an airdrop... it is also visible on the charts with the increase in volume, obviously increase in price and the buy walls placed by pumpers to artificially push the price up.

If you are looking at bitcoin market it is a different story from above. That is more predictable because the market movements are mostly logical and can be analyzed if you know technical and fundamental analysis. You'll also need some experience to know what makes the market move and what is just there to fool weak hands.
By knowing bitcoin moves you could also predict altcoin moves since they always get dumped no matter what direction bitcoin is going as long as it is going in some direction. In other words 20% rise or 20% fall in bitcoin causes the same dump in altcoins.

The problem here is you actually trying to predict price movements. If someone could with good accuracy, then gawd damn he/she must be one of the richest people now. Traders just use charts to check out the odds of prices going up/down(by really tight percentages), but not necessarily predict them.

The thing with patterns is that even if they exist sooner or later someone is going to figure out the existence of such pattern and will begin to take advantage of it, and when enough people do this then the profitability of such system goes down to the point it does not work anymore.

This is what makes the markets so difficult, you cannot just create a strategy and think that strategy is going to work forever, this means that becoming a trader is a process and not a goal and studying the markets is something that you will need to keep doing for the rest of your trading days if you want to obtain profits, newbies never get this which is why even if they enjoy some early success they end up eventually losing it all when their strategy does not work anymore.

Depends entirely on what coin we are discussing here. It is pretty clear that everything has reason to go down and up! Most of the crypto is driven by public investments and institutional news around us. Let us say on one fine day MtGox publishes they are going to bu 250 more bitcoins, then boom, the market goes crazy high and people start doing FOMO investments so that they dont loose the good entry point. On the other hand it could be reverse news of this from an institutional book maker.

We have seen prices going down from China blackout, to bans in Indian market to Alon Crypto city scams. This is just non ending thing and you do have to keep an eye on everything.

In fact crypto market is very volatile. One tweet can change the realm of coin's universe.  

Basically, market forces of demand and supply; the more the demand against supply the higher the value and the more the supply against demand the lower the value. There are lots of other factors which affects demand and supply, such as news updates (positive or negative), market sentiment etc.

In the short term it is much more difficult to predict, especially if you have to use technical analysis, but using fundamental analysis, one can have a rough idea of the (expected) value of a coin and know when it's underpriced which would indicate a price rebound in the future.

Technical analysis based on lot of indicators may give an idea about the future price movements but there is no one can predict it accurately if they did it then they are just lucky though. Trading is purely speculation so its not completely a gamble but kind of thing so you need luck and skills to be successful here.

Also, make use of the news sources and whale indicators.

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?