Can someone please help me with crunching some numbers. At current pace the original Bitcoin is 2.63 times more profitable than Bitcoin Cash according to
https://cash.coin.dance/blocks. They are currently mining at 26% of the original difficulty with approx 24-48 blocks per 24h. Difficulty was reduced from 100% to 26% because there is a mechanism when blocks are really slow (I think less than 6 blocks over 12h), but that might not happen again.
So if we make the assumption that they continue with current pace 1 block/h and price stays around 0.1BTC, how long will it take for them to reach same profit level as bitcoin and how much has been lost in total compared to if they would mine Bitcoin instead? Difficulty will be adjusted after 2016 blocks, that is 84 days! Can the miners afford that, it's a huge gamble?
144 Bitcoin blocks are mined each day. That is 151200 BTC over 84 days.
If 24 BCH blocks are mined each day, that would result in 25200 BCH over 84 days.
Converted to dollars, that is $429M with Bitcoin compared to $7M with BCH. BCH is currently at 5-10% of Bitcoin hashrate? Let say it's 5%, that means they would make $429M/20=$21.45M over 84 days if they stay with Bitcoin instead of $7M with bitcoin Cash. That is a huge loss..
