How much will Trump affect the market long-term?

Mpamaegbu

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Quote from: ? on December 21, 2024, 01:56:32 PM

What are your thoughts?

My thoughts are simple – Bitcoin will continue to be influenced by market dynamics subject to the law of demand and supply. There will be spikes and then cool off period too. However, I expect more spikes than fall in January leading to the week of Trump's swearing -in, thereafter (possibly, a week later) it will dip as investors will take short term profit. The crash we see now is momentarily. I'm not even perturbed a bit by whatever Powell says or how weak hands try to read FUD into his comments. Those who are taking profit now will rejoin at a higher level and they're likely to be the loser for it.

Bitcoin hasn't even doubled its 2021 ATH to create a new circle ATH. I don't know why anyone should be scared now that it's dipping. Even without Trump winning the election and making supportive comments towards Bitcoin, it still would do a double of previous ATH. Now, put in the favourable fundamentals we've ATM. Nonetheless, everyone shouldn't expect a one time spike to get to new ATH. There's bound to be ups and downs as price journeys to a fresh high.

Botnake

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Quote from: pooya87 on December 21, 2024, 10:35:38 PM

There are already a bunch of topics about this which you should read.

In short I think it is too soon to predict because so far there has only been empty talks. But there are a lot of red flags. A lot of restrictions could be applied by the US government that wants full control and surveillance if they start accumulating bitcoin and continue their "regulation" of exchanges and other services. That would significantly slow down adoption.

I also personally predict US government's market manipulations in the future if they go ahead with what they've said so far. Meaning they could start pump and dumping bitcoin, crashing its price to make a lot of money and cover part of their massive budget deficit. This would also have a significantly negative impact on the adoption.

Yes, I've also read that behind this strategic reserve, it's as good to say that US influence should remain on the top, and that they will be able to control now the over all bitcoin supply. Others also said that this a way for Trump to stop other countries from using bitcoin as a currency, but will always stick to dollar as the only currency.

While this may be a green flag for others, but some couldn't help it but oversee it as a red flag.

Solosanz

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Not sure what the question you asked, obviously any implementation that make people to adopt Bitcoin will affect the long term.

Although I'm not a fan of Bitcoin ETF, but since SEC accepting Bitcoin ETF, the Bitcoin price is keep continue day by day. If Bitcoin ETF wasn't accepted, I doubt Bitcoin would reach $100K.

Bitcoin fees wasn't really high when Bitcoin reach new ATH, so people or institution bought Bitcoin in off chain, it could be ETF.

Ambatman

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Long term is quite hard to gauge and based on speculations
But some route I believe it could take is
1. The BSR policy not been implemented which would sprang a short term bearish momentum and Bullish returns in the long run.

2.The BSR implemented but the US making regulations to be in control or making dollar remain valid. This would be bullish in the short term bearish in the mid when they start selling and returns bullish in the Long term.

3. BSR implemented and proved successful spranging other nation to adopt it.
Bullish, Bullish and super bullish.

Iranus

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Quote from: Fiatless on December 21, 2024, 03:24:40 PM

The interest rate reduction should have been good for the market since people will have more money to invest. But just as you said it was Jerome Powell's statement that the Central Bank cannot hold Bitcoin except some laws are amended by the Congress that affected the market negatively.

The Feds Chairman seems to be against Trump's plan to make Bitcoin a reserve currency. He has also made it clear that he will not resign even if the incoming president pushes for it. His standing is coming from his belief that the president doesn't have the power to sack him.

Trump's ability to make Bitcoin a reserve currency will depend mainly on his ability to lobby Congress to amend existing laws to include using Bitcoin as reserve. If this challenge is surmounted and Trump continues with his agenda, Bitcoin will experience an upward movement because other countries might join the US to buy and hodl Bitcoin.

Jerome Powell has said that the Fed has no right nor intention to hold bitcoin but he also acknowledged bitcoin's potential. He said whether the US government can hold bitcoin is up to Congress to decide. That is not their concern because the Fed is a private company, not part of the government.

Not just cryptocurrencies, the entire US stock market also evaporated more than $1.5 trillion after Powell's speech. The main reason is because he said the Fed will only cut interest rates twice in 2025 instead of four times as previously planned. That raises doubts that inflation remains out of control and could get worse if Trump sparks a trade war.

We should be realistic that the idea of turning bitcoin into reserve is not as simple as we think. The 12 branches of the Federal Reserve are the ones holding the national reserves, not the government or anyone else. So proposals to make bitcoin a national reserve or push for law changes would not be easy to implement even if they came from Trump.

https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1869489825902146036

Synchronice

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Quote from: ? on December 21, 2024, 01:56:32 PM

Good day,

Trump has just recently confirmed the BTC reserve and I am wondering how much you guys think Trump will affect the entire market long-term?

After what we saw after the elections, I definitely think this is a green flag.

What are your thoughts?

It's not possible to correctly predict Trump's long-term effect on the market because I'm afraid that things won't go the way we all wish. He said it many times that he wants to mine the rest of the Bitcoins in the USA, which means that he wants to centralize Bitcoin mining and it's devastating for the eco-system. If he manages to succeed in that, then it basically means that Trump will be able to set regulations on Bitcoin miners and he will censorship mining, i.e. he will be able to ban any transaction he wishes. I don't think Trump is going to succeed in this plan but I believe that he is not a crypto messiah.

We have to wait and see what happens when Trump will officially take office as US president. Then we will see what he really wants to do. You guys also should not forget that there is an ongoing war between Russia & Ukraine and Israel-Middle East conflict. If something very bad happens, then no one will have time for crypto.

Porfirii

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Quote from: bittraffic on December 22, 2024, 05:44:45 AM

We're still going to wait til he sits in his office. He does have plans but its already making damages even before he sits down. Tarriff and economic war is what Trump is up to. Future is uncertain until things happen.

Yes, this thread is pure speculation, but these chats are also positive for the morale. Long-term almost nothing is certain, but making projections can be fun.

I like to think that if they finally create a BTC reserve, there will be less coins in circulation and, therefore, more valuable, but we can't be sure. And if they don't? will it have a negative, or just a not positive impact in the price?

Charles-Tim

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Quote from: Fiatless on December 21, 2024, 03:24:40 PM

The interest rate reduction should have been good for the market since people will have more money to invest. But just as you said it was Jerome Powell's statement that the Central Bank cannot hold Bitcoin except some laws are amended by the Congress that affected the market negatively.

Do not let the news that you read confuses you. Normally, increase in interest rate will reduce inflation in theory. Also decrease in interest rate can cause inflation in theory. Many countries are using increase in interest rate to tackle inflation. I am surprised to see the opposite on the recent news. Also a news like this in the past make assets like bitcoin, gold and others to fall. Although, as bitcoin do fall, it use to recover back.

davis196

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Quote from: ? on December 21, 2024, 01:56:32 PM

Good day,

Trump has just recently confirmed the BTC reserve and I am wondering how much you guys think Trump will affect the entire market long-term?

After what we saw after the elections, I definitely think this is a green flag.

What are your thoughts?

It seems that the crypto markets aren't impressed with Trump's confirmation of a Bitcoin strategic reserve. The BTC price dropped below 97K and it's heading towards levels below 95K USD. The news coming from the Federal Reserve(no new interest rate cuts) probably had a bigger influence over the current Bitcoin price. Anyway, I'm still positive about a big price pump in the first quarter of 2025.
Nobody knows what would be the long term affect of Trump's policies over the crypto markets. Trump is a pretty unpredictable guy. His high tariff policies would most likely increase inflation and hit the American economy. The Republican party disliked Trump's budget policies.
I don't have a crystal ball and I can't predict the future.

naira

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Quote from: ? on December 21, 2024, 01:56:32 PM

Good day,

Trump has just recently confirmed the BTC reserve and I am wondering how much you guys think Trump will affect the entire market long-term?

After what we saw after the elections, I definitely think this is a green flag.

What are your thoughts?

It depends on his policy after he is officially inaugurated, but if we refer to his statements during the campaign, the market movement should have a positive impact. Trump himself pushed for more attention to the growth of crypto in the US. Some bitcoin investors and traders need to remain independent in order to take advantage of every profit momentum while anticipating.

bittraffic

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We're still going to wait til he sits in his office. He does have plans but its already making damages even before he sits down. Tarriff and economic war is what Trump is up to. Future is uncertain until things happen.

moneystery

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Quote from: ? on December 21, 2024, 01:56:32 PM

What are your thoughts?

we can't fully conclude because he hasn't even been sworn in as president yet. but i think that trump's effect on the market in the long run will tend to be positive seeing how he hasn't even been sworn in as president yet but can already have a positive impact on the market. even though i'm not sure that it will continue to be positive, it's very possible that he makes decisions that can affect the market, but it should be in a positive direction. let's just see if he can bring good things to the market in the long run, if not then he's not just better than sleepy joe.

Fara Chan

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Quote from: ? on December 21, 2024, 01:56:32 PM

Good day,

Trump has just recently confirmed the BTC reserve and I am wondering how much you guys think Trump will affect the entire market long-term?

After what we saw after the elections, I definitely think this is a green flag.

What are your thoughts?

What did you see after the election that made you think it was a red flag? Because from what I saw through some media, Trump has more sponsors and also people who like him so he has been able to win the election very wisely and Trump has also received some donations from Ripple, Kraken and Ondo for his inauguration so I don't think Trump will be a danger to crypto enthusiasts and also Bitcoin enthusiasts at this time and also in the future. And in fact I think that Trump can have a very good influence on Bitcoin enthusiasts and also other coins in the future because he is a person who is very supportive of Bitcoin at this time.

TheUltraElite

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So anyway, I applied as a merit source :)

Long term, I cant say right now a lot of things can happen in the four years of his 2nd term. At present he has effectively pumped bitcoin enough for this followers to cash out and wait for the next dump.

Although everyone in the forum seems very happy with this, politicians always do this and people will eventually see through this farce. They are doing what celebrities have done for shady businesses and altcoins. Pump and dump.

Maybe one good thing is the rise of the price. Lets hope this holds and we can go further from there.

shinratensei_

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it will depends heavily on trump's decision and whether or not he will stick to his promises.

people are optimistic with the strategic bitcoin reserve after trump's confirmation and it gives a good sentiment, on the other hand there's also variable that makes bitcoin somewhat bearish for short term outlook right now.
I can feel that things might change when we're finally on the new year, as of now, bitcoin price just gonna follow the december sentiment of sell off due to the upcoming holidays, after all people need money and BTC price is quite good right now, some of them definitely gonna realize their PnL despite the fact that BTC can still go up further, no doubt.

however, I expect good things to come for bitcoin.

ancafe

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Quote from: ? on December 21, 2024, 01:56:32 PM

Trump has just recently confirmed the BTC reserve and I am wondering how much you guys think Trump will affect the entire market long-term?

After what we saw after the elections, I definitely think this is a green flag.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been very vocal in his opposition to Trump’s policies and the bitcoin price has been correcting in the last few days. This means there is little certainty about the long term impact of Trump. Some states are planning bitcoin as a strategic reserve currency and that could have an impact if all three of them are successful in making it work. In the long term we don’t know how Trump’s decision will affect bitcoin or not but it should have a positive effect.

What danger do you mean because after the election is over and bitcoin gets a significant increase moment it should be a good thing and that is what most people hope for.

Rabata

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Quote from: ? on December 21, 2024, 01:56:32 PM

Good day,

Trump has just recently confirmed the BTC reserve and I am wondering how much you guys think Trump will affect the entire market long-term?

After what we saw after the elections, I definitely think this is a green flag.

What are your thoughts?

Trump has been making a long-term plan for Bitcoin and the crypto space since the election campaign and is taking various steps according to that plan. In the meantime, Trump has announced a strategic reserve plan for Bitcoin. Implementing this step means that he will definitely take the world of Bitcoin to another level. Trump estimates that along with implementing his plan, the increase in interest from the world's strong Bitcoin holders indicates that the entire market will reach 16 trillion. I am sure that if Trump implements his words and people around the world think positively about it, then this is possible. Not only Trump, but also big countries are planning to make a strategic reserve plan for Bitcoin. In the coming days, there will be another war, that of Bitcoin. Who will lead there will depend on who has how many Bitcoins in his possession.

Lida93

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Quote from: JiiBs on December 21, 2024, 05:56:44 PM

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Quote from: Charles-Tim on December 21, 2024, 02:06:29 PM

Some people can think that the interest rate news is only the reason for the fall of bitcoin price recently below $100 thousand but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says the Fed is not allowed to own bitcoin.

The question now is will Trump be able to make bitcoin as strategic reserve currency? Although, I three states in United States are in the move to make bitcoin a strategic reserve.

The Feds aren’t allowed to own Bitcoin but the states can? Why is that, aren’t them parts and parcel of the same government? Except I’m not understating something here.

As a federal union each states constituting the USA does enjoy some level of autonomy and I think that's what gives those interested states in bitcoin the right to want to make bitcoin their state's reserve currency even though the Fed Reserve Chair J. Powell says the Fed can't own bitcoin it has nothing to do with the federating units. The step Trump would have to take to see to his vision of having the USA to own bitcoin as Fed reserve currency is by working on majority of Congress men to key to his vision by amending the USA constitution, and we don't know how fast this could happen.

Darker45

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Everything will be known when Trump actually assumes office. All these words, promises, confirmatory statements, and the like are for now mere talks. We will see whether Trump actually walks the talk when his presidency starts.

I'm optimistic, though. He's pro crypto. Congress has a good number of pro-crypto lawmakers as well. If they're serious in translating their words into actual policies, regulations, and laws, I guess they can do it.

As to the long term, it depends on several factors. For one, a nation's crypto stance could change as soon as leaders change. It's also a big factor how well Trump establishes pro-crypto policies during his presidency. If the Bitcoin strategic reserve is put into place and there's indeed a global domino effect following it, the long-term will be more bullish.

pooya87

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There are already a bunch of topics about this which you should read.

In short I think it is too soon to predict because so far there has only been empty talks. But there are a lot of red flags. A lot of restrictions could be applied by the US government that wants full control and surveillance if they start accumulating bitcoin and continue their "regulation" of exchanges and other services. That would significantly slow down adoption.

I also personally predict US government's market manipulations in the future if they go ahead with what they've said so far. Meaning they could start pump and dumping bitcoin, crashing its price to make a lot of money and cover part of their massive budget deficit. This would also have a significantly negative impact on the adoption.

Miles2006

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Quote from: ? on December 21, 2024, 01:56:32 PM

Good day,

Trump has just recently confirmed the BTC reserve and I am wondering how much you guys think Trump will affect the entire market long-term?

After what we saw after the elections, I definitely think this is a green flag.

What are your thoughts?

Bitcoin price must not be centered regarding Trump choice of words always, his action is needed more probably afterwards we can decide if this is a great impact. Viewing bitcoin price recently seems surprising well it’s as a result of Trump victory even if this trend will last or not for awhile now bitcoin market is doing great with the unstable prediction, let’s not forget Trump will stay for long IMO let’s give all this some time before concluding maybe I will read more on Trump spoken words concerning bitcoin.

JiiBs

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Quote from: ? on December 21, 2024, 01:56:32 PM

Good day,

Trump has just recently confirmed the BTC reserve and I am wondering how much you guys think Trump will affect the entire market long-term?

After what we saw after the elections, I definitely think this is a green flag.

What are your thoughts?

I really wish you would have dropped a link yo where the rest of us that might be interested in this news could read it for ourselves.
I haven’t come by this but, it concerns what I’m about at least and coming form a figure that have come by some influence in recent time, it would be cool having to read what that is to gain an insight on how it could go in the coming days.

Quote from: Charles-Tim on December 21, 2024, 02:06:29 PM

Some people can think that the interest rate news is only the reason for the fall of bitcoin price recently below $100 thousand but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says the Fed is not allowed to own bitcoin.

The question now is will Trump be able to make bitcoin as strategic reserve currency? Although, I three states in United States are in the move to make bitcoin a strategic reserve.

The Feds aren’t allowed to own Bitcoin but the states can? Why is that, aren’t them parts and parcel of the same government? Except I’m not understating something here.

icalical

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Trump's announcement about Bitcoin reserve for US raise Bitcoin's price over $107,000. This most likely a good news obviously, but there is also some other who thinks volatility of Bitcoin would be dangerous for a national reserve. There is no plan in concrete as of now, so the long term impact is not clear. His pro crypto stance may boost market confidence in the short term, but it's hard to predict if this will lead to stability or just more unpredictability. As always with crypto, it's a rollercoaster, keeping an eye on developments before jumping in might be the smarter move.

Fiatless

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Quote from: Charles-Tim on December 21, 2024, 02:06:29 PM

Some people can think that the interest rate news is only the reason for the fall of bitcoin price recently below $100 thousand but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says the Fed is not allowed to own bitcoin.

The question now is will Trump be able to make bitcoin as strategic reserve currency? Although, I three states in United States are in the move to make bitcoin a strategic reserve.

The interest rate reduction should have been good for the market since people will have more money to invest. But just as you said it was Jerome Powell's statement that the Central Bank cannot hold Bitcoin except some laws are amended by the Congress that affected the market negatively.

The Feds Chairman seems to be against Trump's plan to make Bitcoin a reserve currency. He has also made it clear that he will not resign even if the incoming president pushes for it. His standing is coming from his belief that the president doesn't have the power to sack him.

Trump's ability to make Bitcoin a reserve currency will depend mainly on his ability to lobby Congress to amend existing laws to include using Bitcoin as reserve. If this challenge is surmounted and Trump continues with his agenda, Bitcoin will experience an upward movement because other countries might join the US to buy and hodl Bitcoin.

Charles-Tim

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Some people can think that the interest rate news is only the reason for the fall of bitcoin price recently below $100 thousand but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says the Fed is not allowed to own bitcoin.

The question now is will Trump be able to make bitcoin as strategic reserve currency? Although, I three states in United States are in the move to make bitcoin a strategic reserve.

Odusko

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Quote from: ? on December 21, 2024, 01:56:32 PM

Good day,

Trump has just recently confirmed the BTC reserve and I am wondering how much you guys think Trump will affect the entire market long-term?

After what we saw after the elections, I definitely think this is a green flag.

What are your thoughts?

Well for the long-term impact of Donald Trump's administration on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency it all depends on the regulations that are formulated and implemented by the government as regards Bitcoin reserves and cryptocurrency adoptions within the USA, this has to do with the infrastructure development to support the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem.
If we focus so much on the acclaimed Bitcoin reserves by the government, this doesn't add up so much to the market, since the profits of such government reserves are not used to advance the crypto cause, state Bitcoin reserves and ETFs all means for individuals and government to take advantage of the Bitcoin volatilities, so we shouldn't make mentioned of Bitcoin reserves as support for Bitcoin.

?

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Good day,

Trump has just recently confirmed the BTC reserve and I am wondering how much you guys think Trump will affect the entire market long-term?

After what we saw after the elections, I definitely think this is a green flag.

What are your thoughts?

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