In the more than six years since the global financial crisis, there have been a large number of excellent speculative opportunities. Gold tripled, crude oil fell 80%, the Australian dollar fell 2000 points, and Bitcoin increased ten thousand-fold. So with all these investment opportunities, why not go all in? In 1992 George Soros went all in and broke the Bank of England.
The way Soros makes an all in bet is different than ordinary investors. He will wait for a key moment that has a high probability of being a reversal point, then he will go all in. Ordinary investors often make many bets that each have a 50% chance to win - but 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% means that an investor than makes several all in bets will lose eventually.
Go all in before the market reverses
In 2012, George Soros shorted the Japanese yen and profited one billion dollars.
In 2013, Soros moved to the Australian dollar market. The Australian central bank cut interest rates for the first time. When the AUD was at the highest point (1.06), Soros took a one billion dollar short position, and the AUD subsequently declined.
Go all in and catch the reversal point At the end of 2013, the China A-share market was coming to the reversal point after a long decline; after several rounds of volatility, finally there was a breakthrough:
Where is the next opportunity to go all in? Which market will have the next opportunity to go all in? U.S. stocks, A-shares, gold, and crude oil seem to lack of clear direction. But the monthly Bitcoin chart shows a very clear long downward trend:
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