How to calculate a possible earning from an ICO?

Lordmancer

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Quote from: Stella27 on November 27, 2017, 01:04:14 AM

Actually there is no actual figure or calculations of your earnings from ICO because what the project have is only the whitepaper. Yes they do have the target selling price but it still depends on how much the investors are willing to sell by the time it gets listed in the market.

This is exactly what I'm talking about! The majority of ICOs have nothing except for White Paper. Lordmancer II has a product, has a market and it is possible to make some calculations. Of course there are many facts that can influence on the result, but in general, we have at least a model.

Have you reviewed the model? What do you think?

Stella27

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Actually there is no actual figure or calculations of your earnings from ICO because what the project have is only the whitepaper. Yes they do have the target selling price but it still depends on how much the investors are willing to sell by the time it gets listed in the market.

Lordmancer

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Quote from: bear100 on November 24, 2017, 08:04:39 AM

Mobile games? Maybe its a growing industry, but it will face some restrictions. Like mobile devices performance. Besides, I have a powerful cell phone, but I don't play many games. I download only free ones.
But what I really put my money in - games on pc and ps4. Its more profitable industry, I think.

Mobile gaming generates 40% of total gaming revenue! It was $40 bln in 2016. And exact this part of the gaming industry is growing faster than all others.

You can dislike mobile games, but the fact is that it is the biggest gaming market and it will become even bigger.

sufferer123

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I personally do not think that the future price of a plant can be estimated today. If someone dies, the project falls, and if one of the top officials pulls out of the project, the project may fall too. A number of factors such as this can affect the future price of the project.

chidrawarster

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ICO's only succeed if they have good ideas, good products and long term plans.Most of the ICO's i see, they do for obtaining funds and later on we do not know their whereabouts. But there are many ICO's who wants to invest long term and make a business model for better growth and performance. Still , i see after the ICO's as well, price rises only if there is demand and vice versa. Nobody can predict the ICO's softcap or hardcap and still it may go in nay direction.

xYuyan

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it's interesting but I don't think we can ever truly predict the price...we can assume it will be higher than X based on prior ICOs though. for example, if you buy into an ICO at $0.1 per, I think its very highly likely you will make profit even if you sell day 1 (so long as you do so before the price dumps down to nothingness)

Lordmancer

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We make a game with real cryptoeconomy

Quote from: adam1230 on November 24, 2017, 09:52:51 AM

Prediction method is really nice as you can see on this spreadsheet :
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18jvEqrD9mWJDif-dv8dwPwgsLzrmQpS90MeV3rGE5Yg/edit#gid=2070992587

It is not possible to predict future price of any commodities so there is no chance to predict %100 that an ICO will be up 76x
But logic makes sense and these calculations will be a light to determine the options.

Sure, it is not possible to predict the exact price. But at least there is a basis.

adam1230

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Prediction method is really nice as you can see on this spreadsheet :
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18jvEqrD9mWJDif-dv8dwPwgsLzrmQpS90MeV3rGE5Yg/edit#gid=2070992587

It is not possible to predict future price of any commodities so there is no chance to predict %100 that an ICO will be up 76x
But logic makes sense and these calculations will be a light to determine the options.

BlackPanda

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Merit: 1001

Quote from: Text on November 24, 2017, 08:24:26 AM

Future prices of a coin can't be calculated because it is unpredictable, it is not base how the project or product establish. It also depends on the demand by its popularity. Great and unique projects last long because of their promising future plans. But some believes that big whales controlled the markets flow, the pumps and dumps. And these bounty hunters that make a massive sell off after receiving the token from a successful ICO.

Nothing in the world of digital currencies can be precisely predicted. everything goes so quickly and beyond expectations, that we may feel that the predictions that are now in circulation are not appropriate. everything is limited to speculation and there is no definite calculation that can ensure the price of an altcoin or Bitcoin. So do not be too hopeful of ICO's predictions and expectations, believe in the instincts we have and I'm sure it will help us make the right decisions. It will not guarantee, but at least we will get the power of mentality when our choices fail.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: BitcoinHodler on November 24, 2017, 09:24:46 AM

you can't measure these things. that is why many consider investing in an ICO as gambling. even if some of them have a "product" as you say, it doesn't really change anything in my opinion. that "product" still has to have some demand for them to be able to grow and sustain their prices.

and so far all the ICOs that i have seen were full of "talk" and pretty words. they all seem like they are going to change the world when they get the money, but as soon as they receive it and cash it out, all the development and pretty words stop.

Not just only full of talk but also have lots of flowering words and promises when they are still on the funding state but when the ICO has finished those words would really be neglected already and doesnt even make updates regarding on the project only seldom legit projects,devs would really mind on their promises that they made this is why i dont see these ICO's are really worth to invest. Calculating can be possible but i dont rely on that one because on the end of the sale or after that there are lots of factors that do deecrease your profitability.

BitcoinHodler

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HODLing is an art, not just a word...

you can't measure these things. that is why many consider investing in an ICO as gambling. even if some of them have a "product" as you say, it doesn't really change anything in my opinion. that "product" still has to have some demand for them to be able to grow and sustain their prices.

and so far all the ICOs that i have seen were full of "talk" and pretty words. they all seem like they are going to change the world when they get the money, but as soon as they receive it and cash it out, all the development and pretty words stop.

mautenisis

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Theres no telling how much will the coin will go,you may profit but not good as trading mostly ICOs failed so i prefer to stay away from ICOs.

asayoyaasa

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even if the product was success the token or coin him self can be faill i mean if the demand high the price raise and the opposite can happend too.

Text

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Future prices of a coin can't be calculated because it is unpredictable, it is not base how the project or product establish. It also depends on the demand by its popularity. Great and unique projects last long because of their promising future plans. But some believes that big whales controlled the markets flow, the pumps and dumps. And these bounty hunters that make a massive sell off after receiving the token from a successful ICO.

SureLockLoans

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Quote from: bear100 on November 24, 2017, 08:04:39 AM

Mobile games? Maybe its a growing industry, but it will face some restrictions. Like mobile devices performance. Besides, I have a powerful cell phone, but I don't play many games. I download only free ones.
But what I really put my money in - games on pc and ps4. Its more profitable industry, I think.

The mobile industry is really booming, even free games generate revenue through advertisements or in game purchases. PC industry is still quite big but I believe the market cap of mobile apps is far bigger.

Quote from: pawanjain on November 24, 2017, 08:08:38 AM

It depends on the way how you are at your managing skills and your analyzing skills. The process to accomplish a successful ICO includes many tasks and if you are confident enough about the value of your coin then you will be able to calculate the possible earning from the ICO with more accuracy. If the project is in need in the real world then it will be well established then the token will have real value and will be sold rapidly. So after finding a real project you will be able to calculate the cost and earnings from the ICO.

You won't be able to calculate it accurately. A coins success is determined by public involvement and whether or not it's hyped and how much news coverage is gets. You can make an educated guess on how much you are going to earn but certainly not pin point accuracy.

pawanjain

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Nothing lasts forever

It depends on the way how you are at your managing skills and your analyzing skills. The process to accomplish a successful ICO includes many tasks and if you are confident enough about the value of your coin then you will be able to calculate the possible earning from the ICO with more accuracy. If the project is in need in the real world then it will be well established then the token will have real value and will be sold rapidly. So after finding a real project you will be able to calculate the cost and earnings from the ICO.

bear100

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Mobile games? Maybe its a growing industry, but it will face some restrictions. Like mobile devices performance. Besides, I have a powerful cell phone, but I don't play many games. I download only free ones.
But what I really put my money in - games on pc and ps4. Its more profitable industry, I think.

tamango

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Quote from: Lordmancer on November 24, 2017, 07:09:34 AM

It is common that the majority of ICOs can’t calculate or even create a model of the future price of its token. The problem is almost all ICOs have only a white paper. No product, no exact plans, and even no existing market.

It is why we usually make decisions based on faith, not calculations.

We tried to make a model of the Lord Coin token price which is used in Lordmancer II (http://lordmancer2.io)

Dislike the majority of projects, Lordmancer II already has a product and we can use some benchmarks from the market.

Let's see the result: https://hackernoon.com/lord-coin-economics-model-how-to-calculate-a-future-price-of-a-gaming-token-db04de0cff9c

I think your Idea is very good, I read the document and it's very interesting. I wish many other ICO will adopt such a model like this...
But I think also that many people don't even read the whitepaper....wasting their money sometimes in some ICO that has a good "look" but that are poor in contents...

shandi albert

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FXPay.io

Idea. Creation of a unique trade offer. The reading presentation should understand the value of the coin, see the practical use, the "sick" Will pull the product out of the target audience. Positioning, motivation, work from objections have occurred at this stage.

I welcome you.. Cheesy

Lordmancer

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Activity: 476

Merit: 101

We make a game with real cryptoeconomy

It is common that the majority of ICOs can’t calculate or even create a model of the future price of its token. The problem is almost all ICOs have only a white paper. No product, no exact plans, and even no existing market.

It is why we usually make decisions based on faith, not calculations.

We tried to make a model of the Lord Coin token price which is used in Lordmancer II (http://lordmancer2.io)

Dislike the majority of projects, Lordmancer II already has a product and we can use some benchmarks from the market.

Let's see the result: https://hackernoon.com/lord-coin-economics-model-how-to-calculate-a-future-price-of-a-gaming-token-db04de0cff9c

Topic: How to calculate a possible earning from an ICO? (Read 323 times)