I am using the politician mentions technique
Whenever the government is planning to do something, its because they have decided they don't like the risk something new creates. Because politicians don't do anything unless someone tells them that there is something to worry about - you know that if a politician knows, then the whole world does too - you've hit mainstream!
So, I do a search every week on these official sites for terms to do with bitcoin. If there is nothing there, it means I have at least another month before we hit the top!
Topic: how to call the top (Read 676 times)
Bitcoin is better known now than it was in June 2011 - now that was a bubble.
If this rise is a bubble - and we cannot really say definitively that it is or is not, to be honest - then it might be just the start of one. Also, no one can really predict accurately how severe the subsequent bear market will be. I doubt there'll be a 92% drop like in 2011, but it could easily be 30%, maybe 50%, easily. Then again, consider the current price, about US$190/BTC. One could buy some BTC right now, say. Or wait for the "bubble" to peak - let's say it rises to $700 but then a bear market ensues and the bottom is at $350, a 50% drop. $350 is still more than $190, so in that scenario, buying now would still be better value than buying in later. But for all we know, the price could drop from $700 to $40 (doubtful but possible).
If this rise is a bubble - and we cannot really say definitively that it is or is not, to be honest - then it might be just the start of one. Also, no one can really predict accurately how severe the subsequent bear market will be. I doubt there'll be a 92% drop like in 2011, but it could easily be 30%, maybe 50%, easily. Then again, consider the current price, about US$190/BTC. One could buy some BTC right now, say. Or wait for the "bubble" to peak - let's say it rises to $700 but then a bear market ensues and the bottom is at $350, a 50% drop. $350 is still more than $190, so in that scenario, buying now would still be better value than buying in later. But for all we know, the price could drop from $700 to $40 (doubtful but possible).
But if you are planning on selling near the top and these are the signs why wouldn't you just use them? I see no reason to switch to a fiat currency when you would already have the currency used in common exchanges, assuming your criteria was met.
Yea its tough to say. I would have to assess the situation when we get there. On the one hand i would say that the end game is to move my btc into silver or gold, but who knows we could be mining asteroids by then which could cause gold and silver to be worthless as a money. Perhaps an element that is so rare that even when we mine asteroids its incredibly valuable, iridium or osmium maybe?
But if you are planning on selling near the top and these are the signs why wouldn't you just use them? I see no reason to switch to a fiat currency when you would already have the currency used in common exchanges, assuming your criteria was met.
-Your grandma asks you how to retrieve her lost password from mtgox.
I'll be a happy man when this day arrives!
Also, seeing the price of Bitcoin ticking along the bottom of CNN, or any other news channel that does this all day long.
I often hear people talking about price targets, "if bitcoin reaches X dollars per coin than i will sell because that X dollars will be the top". I reject this notion. Prices give us very little useful information in this regard. anyone looking at price charts for bitcoin would say we are in a bubble but this simply isnt the case. I could knock on every door in my neighborhood and ask each person what is bitcoin and not one of them would have even heard of it, there is no such thing as a bubble that no one has heard of.
I plan to look for real world signs to help me to understand when we near the top so i am going to start this list and i want you guys to help me fill it in.
You know we are near the top when:
-Amazon.com announces they will be accepting bitcoins for online payments.
-Your grandma asks you how to retrieve her lost password from mtgox.
-A government announces they will allow payment of taxes in bitcoin.
I plan to look for real world signs to help me to understand when we near the top so i am going to start this list and i want you guys to help me fill it in.
You know we are near the top when:
-Amazon.com announces they will be accepting bitcoins for online payments.
-Your grandma asks you how to retrieve her lost password from mtgox.
-A government announces they will allow payment of taxes in bitcoin.
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