How to estimate Bitcoin's Future Value

BitChick

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Quote from: halfawake on July 13, 2013, 06:06:16 PM

A calculation like this has already been made in the bitcoin presentation Why you should invest in bitcoin. Tuur Demeester calculated that the value of one bitcoin would be $500,000 if it takes over the entire world's financial system. I'd like to the exact part of that presentation, but I didn't make a mental note of where in the presentation he said that.

The "good stuff" in Tuur Demeester's presentation is a little after 26 minutes into the presentation.

Not to say that the entire presentation is not good. It is just pretty nice to see good reasons for the price to be valued so high.

halfawake

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A calculation like this has already been made in the bitcoin presentation Why you should invest in bitcoin. Tuur Demeester calculated that the value of one bitcoin would be $500,000 if it takes over the entire world's financial system. I'd like to link to the exact part of that presentation, but I didn't make a mental note of where in the presentation he said that.

Bungeebones

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A list of financial market players that will be hit the hardest by Bitcoin would include credit card companies, Western Union, Moneygram and all the banks.

An idea occurred to me if one were to take the daily volumes transacted by all the credit cards, add it to the daily volumes sent internationally by Western Union and moneygram and perhaps some fraction of the amount on deposit with world banks and compare all that to the volume of Bitcoin you could start to get an estimate of its real value. I don't think only one day's worth of transactions in Bitcoin would be sufficient, though, so perhaps 3 to five days worth into Bitcoin might be closer to what would be need in the global transaction "slush fund". That amount doesn't include any reserves either.

All that money flowing through those inefficient system today will all eventually move to the more efficient one (i.e. Bitcoin). In order for Bitcoin to even handle the daily trade then each coin would have to rise in value enough to do that. I bet its a BIG number.

Topic: How to estimate Bitcoin's Future Value (Read 1113 times)