When did you first hear about the internet? Used internet in 4th grade (2001)
When did you get your first email address? Aroud 2002-2003
When did you send your first email to someone you didn't know about something you wanted to buy? Around 2006-2007
When did you first use the internet to chat to someone you didn't know? 2003-2004
When did you first use the internet to do something with your local government office? 2006-2007
When did you first buy something online, and how much did you spend? 2011- 2012 Don't remember what it was
Topic: How to forecast when Bitcoin is going mainstream! (Read 1395 times)
Thank you for the examples - just imagine how the answers would be for a non technical audience!
Looking at the answers, there is a gap of years between having heard of the Internet, and using the internet to make contact with someone else. Bitcoin is going to have the same sort of gap between people having heard of it, and actually using it - and that looks to be a good 5 years or more.
So, if you are non technical and just heard of Bitcoin, its going to be 5 years before you actually spend your first BTC.
As soon as that happens, BTC will stop increasing in value except for inflation, so I would guess that we are looking at a final value of Bitcoin being in the range of $30,000 per coin by 2020.
Anyone agree?
Looking at the answers, there is a gap of years between having heard of the Internet, and using the internet to make contact with someone else. Bitcoin is going to have the same sort of gap between people having heard of it, and actually using it - and that looks to be a good 5 years or more.
So, if you are non technical and just heard of Bitcoin, its going to be 5 years before you actually spend your first BTC.
As soon as that happens, BTC will stop increasing in value except for inflation, so I would guess that we are looking at a final value of Bitcoin being in the range of $30,000 per coin by 2020.
Anyone agree?
That's a pretty bearish value in my opinion.
When my hairdresser knows what it is it's mainstream (and it's not yet).
i would say bitcoin is considered main stream when you can stop someone in the street and say:
"do you know what bitcoin is or do you atleast know someone that has some"
and the answer would be yes
EG i know what euro is and i know someone that has some. but i do not have them myself...
yet euro's are mainstream
it does not take 100% of public ownership to become mainstream. infact it probably takes less then 5%
EG very early 1960's
i know what a TV is and i know someone on my street that owns one
"do you know what bitcoin is or do you atleast know someone that has some"
and the answer would be yes
EG i know what euro is and i know someone that has some. but i do not have them myself...
yet euro's are mainstream
it does not take 100% of public ownership to become mainstream. infact it probably takes less then 5%
EG very early 1960's
i know what a TV is and i know someone on my street that owns one
The answers will give you an idea of how long it will take before bitcoin is mainstream.
When did you first hear about the internet?
When I was 13 or 14 y.o. (Late 1990s).
When did you get your first email address?
When I was 19 y.o (early 2000s).
When did you send your first email to someone you didn't know about something you wanted to buy?
Never
When did you first use the internet to chat to someone you didn't know?
In 2005.
When did you first use the internet to do something with your local government office?
Late 2000s. When I was 24 or 25.
When did you first buy something online, and how much did you spend?
When I was 25. Bought one VCD for $2.
Thank you for the examples - just imagine how the answers would be for a non technical audience!
Looking at the answers, there is a gap of years between having heard of the Internet, and using the internet to make contact with someone else. Bitcoin is going to have the same sort of gap between people having heard of it, and actually using it - and that looks to be a good 5 years or more.
So, if you are non technical and just heard of Bitcoin, its going to be 5 years before you actually spend your first BTC.
As soon as that happens, BTC will stop increasing in value except for inflation, so I would guess that we are looking at a final value of Bitcoin being in the range of $30,000 per coin by 2020.
Anyone agree?
Looking at the answers, there is a gap of years between having heard of the Internet, and using the internet to make contact with someone else. Bitcoin is going to have the same sort of gap between people having heard of it, and actually using it - and that looks to be a good 5 years or more.
So, if you are non technical and just heard of Bitcoin, its going to be 5 years before you actually spend your first BTC.
As soon as that happens, BTC will stop increasing in value except for inflation, so I would guess that we are looking at a final value of Bitcoin being in the range of $30,000 per coin by 2020.
Anyone agree?
1) 1995 (I remember the advertising hype about Windows 95 and TV shows reading out new email addresses they could be contacted at)
2) 1999 (When I got my first PC, an IBM Aptiva
)
3) Don't think I've ever done that
4) 1999 (Yahoo chat rooms)
5) 2001 (College scholarship application)
6) 2006 (Playstation game from Ebay)
I'm in my late 20s
2) 1999 (When I got my first PC, an IBM Aptiva
)3) Don't think I've ever done that
4) 1999 (Yahoo chat rooms)
5) 2001 (College scholarship application)
6) 2006 (Playstation game from Ebay)
I'm in my late 20s
I'm probably younger than the previous posters but Let's see...
When did you first hear about the internet? in the 90's
When did you get your first email address? in the early 2000's
When did you send your first email to someone you didn't know about something you wanted to buy? early 2000's
When did you first use the internet to chat to someone you didn't know? early 2000's
When did you first use the internet to do something with your local government office? I don't think I've ever done this as of yet..
When did you first buy something online, and how much did you spend? I first purchased something online around 2005
But I definitely agree that Bitcoin has the potential to take off and reach greater heights than now.
When did you first hear about the internet? in the 90's
When did you get your first email address? in the early 2000's
When did you send your first email to someone you didn't know about something you wanted to buy? early 2000's
When did you first use the internet to chat to someone you didn't know? early 2000's
When did you first use the internet to do something with your local government office? I don't think I've ever done this as of yet..
When did you first buy something online, and how much did you spend? I first purchased something online around 2005
But I definitely agree that Bitcoin has the potential to take off and reach greater heights than now.
Yep. I was in my 30's during the 1990's and people would laugh at me when I told them about the Internet and its possibilities.
These same people would never admit to that now. They are likely saying they were early adopters.
I remember when it was difficult just to figure out how to first log onto the Internet.
I put up one of the first large New England newspapers to go online, in 1999 creating a database driven website for them before there was canned software - written in PHP and MySQL. I had people call me, the Webmaster, asking how to click the links so they could read the full article. People didn't even know how to do that, the Internet was so new.
Bitcoin is at that stage now. The potential for growth is like that of the Internet in 1996 in my estimation. Think of how much the Internet has grown in the last 18 years. That is what is in the future for Bitcoin.
These same people would never admit to that now. They are likely saying they were early adopters.
I remember when it was difficult just to figure out how to first log onto the Internet.
I put up one of the first large New England newspapers to go online, in 1999 creating a database driven website for them before there was canned software - written in PHP and MySQL. I had people call me, the Webmaster, asking how to click the links so they could read the full article. People didn't even know how to do that, the Internet was so new.
Bitcoin is at that stage now. The potential for growth is like that of the Internet in 1996 in my estimation. Think of how much the Internet has grown in the last 18 years. That is what is in the future for Bitcoin.
Here is a simple test to highlight how few people have a practical knowledge of bitcoin.
When did you first hear about the internet?
When did you get your first email address?
When did you send your first email to someone you didn't know about something you wanted to buy?
When did you first use the internet to chat to someone you didn't know?
When did you first use the internet to do something with your local government office?
When did you first buy something online, and how much did you spend?
The answers will give you an idea of how long it will take before bitcoin is mainstream.
I am an Uber geek, and a reasonably old one, so I've been online since the early 90s - but my relatives are different, and that is who you ask the questions above to!
We need to get to at least 30% of the population being able to answer yes to a bitcoin version of the above before you can say its reached mainstream!
When did you first hear about the internet?
When did you get your first email address?
When did you send your first email to someone you didn't know about something you wanted to buy?
When did you first use the internet to chat to someone you didn't know?
When did you first use the internet to do something with your local government office?
When did you first buy something online, and how much did you spend?
The answers will give you an idea of how long it will take before bitcoin is mainstream.
I am an Uber geek, and a reasonably old one, so I've been online since the early 90s - but my relatives are different, and that is who you ask the questions above to!
We need to get to at least 30% of the population being able to answer yes to a bitcoin version of the above before you can say its reached mainstream!
1) somewhere in the 90's
2) Somewhere in the 90's
3) what?
4) we used to chat on the internet all the time when i was at school, probably somewhere in the early 90's
5) somewhere in the 2000's
6) somewhere in the 2000's, probably a small transaction.
however, consider this:
Three interesting things can be seen in this chart
1) People adopt new technology quicker as time progresses.
2) People adopt technology that is simular to new technology faster than they adopt entirely new technology (look at color tv versus computers, and cellphones vs computers), also apperantly things that enhance other things, like VCR, seem to catch on quicker as well. (also, VCR is simular to tapes)
3) all technologies start slow at first, then go exponential, and then flatten out once almost everyone who wants them, has them. (this supports the theory that bitcoin will continue to grow exponentially until the market gets saturated)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI
Here is a simple test to highlight how few people have a practical knowledge of bitcoin.
When did you first hear about the internet?
When did you get your first email address?
When did you send your first email to someone you didn't know about something you wanted to buy?
When did you first use the internet to chat to someone you didn't know?
When did you first use the internet to do something with your local government office?
When did you first buy something online, and how much did you spend?
The answers will give you an idea of how long it will take before bitcoin is mainstream.
I am an Uber geek, and a reasonably old one, so I've been online since the early 90s - but my relatives are different, and that is who you ask the questions above to!
We need to get to at least 30% of the population being able to answer yes to a bitcoin version of the above before you can say its reached mainstream!
When did you first hear about the internet?
When did you get your first email address?
When did you send your first email to someone you didn't know about something you wanted to buy?
When did you first use the internet to chat to someone you didn't know?
When did you first use the internet to do something with your local government office?
When did you first buy something online, and how much did you spend?
The answers will give you an idea of how long it will take before bitcoin is mainstream.
I am an Uber geek, and a reasonably old one, so I've been online since the early 90s - but my relatives are different, and that is who you ask the questions above to!
We need to get to at least 30% of the population being able to answer yes to a bitcoin version of the above before you can say its reached mainstream!
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