Topic: How to know Feb 7 was the optimal buy point 2019. (Read 539 times)

I am averaged out short from ~10k. Bitcoin recently hit $13,700 at that price bitcoin would need $23.4 million of investment every day (1800btc) to maintain that price. Due to my research I know how much the miners invest in bitcoin/day, and quite frankly I find it hard to believe that it can maintain this price for very long. There is a reason bitcoin goes up AND down, and my metrics and analytics chart and document the actual cash flows of the market.

Aaron

P.S. Dont overestimate the size of the bitcoin market, very few institutional investors and large movers and shakers are willing to or should be investing in bitcoin. Without my metrics that is

People are delusional.

I think a lot got brainwashed by idiots with ties to Tyler Jenks, the man behind Hyperwave saying that the price was 'guaranteed' to hit the $1000 level. There was even a bet from one of their shills, which was a bet of 1BTC that Bitcoin would reach $1500 before $6500 on Bitstamp, and we know how that ended. Not sure if anyone took that bet, but I wouldn't mind seeing these losers bleed a bit.

We also have Alesio Rastani who still doesn't seem too confident that the bottom is in yet. Every large move in Bitcoins price and he uploads a video. Such a leech.

What you post in the op is the right thing and many of us here did not understand risk at all. When bitcoin went down below $3200 people were still saying that bitcoin is going to gone down below that amount and that is heading towards $1000 but that was the bottom and those that were able to buy then and are still holding will seriously make profits because they understand risk and has invested at the right time.

Unfortunately if you want to prove if the strategy you have created is profitable you have no option but to test it against the previous prices, as long as you do not use information that should be unavailable to you at that day, like using the next day price, then any test that you run will effectively give you an idea of how well your strategy preformed in the past and how it will perform in the future, now the strategy created by the OP is really interesting to say the least but I do not use fundamentals in my strategy so I do not how effective it can be.

It means a lot that you said that, thank you. I am honored.

You might be interested in the new risk analysis that I posted here:

https://www.amsinger.org/price-floor-in-action

I am happy to work hard for my clients. I hope you consider becoming one.

Truly, thank you for the compliment.

Aaron

Most of them are, but my algos find the creation cost. That is the true price floor. No charts or magic, just true calcs.

The creation cost is the pre-purchase price of bitcoin. People that spend millions of dollars a day pre purchasing bitcoin are willing to buy it for less than the pre purchase price fo sho. They are also willing to sell it to people that are willing to pay 9255

Aaron

What an intelligent and hardwork displayed on your site. This will take an enormous time to accomplish. I have already bookmarked the page for regular visitation. You are indeed a guru, big thumb up for you.

Just keep buying when spare cash is available. Trying to find the floor is a futile exercise with so many people or self proclaimed experts saying the floor is xyz, in fact most of them are completely wrong

There was a great buy time on May 2 just like feb 7. It is not as complicated as others would have you believe.

The only reason BTC, ETH, BCH, or LTC have value is because of the cash flow and sunk investment behind these coins. I have updated my sample analysis page to show people the true amount of money going through these coins and creating the price floor:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

I offer this current information to my clients, and even give month old information out for free because I am trying to help people understand what they are investing in. For most people BTC is a seasonal investment once or twice a year at the right time and a sell here and there. I want people to get in at the right time and out at the right time, it is my duty. I got wrecked in Nov 2018 I don't want other people to go through that.

Aaron

Which news sites are reporting on crypto cash flow? Which news sites use algorithmic methods of fundamental financial analysis?

I've been to crypto news sites. They are complete gossip houses full of FOMO nonsense.

If you can back up what you are saying I will gladly concede and tell you, "This news site is showing people the true fundamentals of BTC, ETH, BCH, and LTC. Exactly the same way that I am."

For some reason I don't think I will have to say that

Check out the new risk analysis:

https://www.amsinger.org/price-floor-in-action

Thank you for your questions.

I am short because with my analysis I understand the current risk levels. I cannot share current data, that is reserved for clients, but I have made a risk analysis for May 2 compared to May 27 you can find that here:

https://www.amsinger.org/price-floor-in-action

At this stage of my trading I only operate based on risk and patience. I don't feed into the hype or FOMO. Simply cold hard numbers.

If not me then who? The mighty oak started as a little acorn With new subscribers I can continue to fund my research. I can expand into exchange tracking and true volume information, arbitrage, and grow into even more.

As for the emotional people, my clients and I will be glad to take their money.

Aaron

I have heard similar things about miners shorting at 4500 with intentions to payback their coins later. It makes sense.

The exchanges exist to give miners liquidity. That is their main purpose.

At the end of 2018 there was also an efficiency upgrade that served to tank the price even more. It was a perfect storm.

I made these fundamentals so people can understand the basic cash flow of bitcoin. It is not magic and dreams. If you think bitcoin will increase from here I wish you success

Knowing the price floor? This is always been the quest of most people who do make trade and invest.

We do only say such things when it do already happen.On those times you cant really make such easy buy
because doubts and fear is already been experienced and thoughts on mind that it might even hit more lower
price is there and that's why I don't really believe into these tools or technicals because this market is always been
unpredictable.

I'm not really into analyzing historical prices or prices that have already happened in the past since they will always end up accurate because you aren't really predicting anything. Its like how news websites so the reason why BTC have moved after it had already happened, they'll try to connect every news they deemed worthy of connectin with the price movement. With your "miner's are buying BTC rather than creating them" analysis shows the same thing as what news sites are showing.

That is the beauty of the markets, some whales may decide to try to manipulate the price but if another group of whales see this they could try to get advantage of it and make the manipulators pay, as an example if a group of whales decided to try to keep the price low by selling coins and shorting the market another group of whales could begin to buy their coins at such incredible discount, eventually the whales that are manipulating the market will either run out of money or just realize they have being losing money and then the market will go back to its natural level.

I agree with the majority of your statements, I think it should have been very obvious that earlier this year prices were bottoming, simply because the market sentiment was just so bearish in the mainstream, as well as the fact that it was apparent there was a period of consolidation and sideways movement that usually signal the price floor, as it's getting tested.

However, would you be able to explain why exactly you are short at the moment, perhaps based off not only your own compiled statistics but other factors as well?

Also, educating others by yourself will not stabilize the market. There are much bigger investors and traders, especially those on leverage, that simply have way further influence over the market than the average trader. And besides, people will always be influenced by their emotions no matter what.

You can actually follow what miners do with their coins since everything here is transparent. Aside from some occasional selling on spot exchanges to cover operational costs, miners tend to hold on to their coins fairly long.

Miners will never intentionally sell the market down to such degree because that affects their profitability. Selling the market down like that is similar to shooting yourself in the foot. Even Bitmain isn't that stupid.

What tanked the price seems to be a descending triangle that generally has a bias to break out lower, and that's exactly what happened. BCH vs BSV hashwar might have slightly increased the probability of breaking out lower.

I've been reading about the break from $6k for some months now and some also speculate that the reason for the fall wasn't simply because of BCH but mainly miners finally capitulating and selling off their coins after holding the mined coins to create an artificial price floor at $6k. The miners might've anticipated the price would rise again without the selling pressure from all the daily mined BTC, but after it didn't the miners finally sold off their coins and the drop to $3k happened. Nobody really knows in the end, though this certainly makes sense.

In retrospect we were all told the selling was false from that twitter war and fork split to BCH.   How that can also kick onto BTC was a surprise to all of us I guess but the important part was the forcing selling and artificial also because it was just selling from a long term holder almost deliberately to bring down the price of the main chain which then kicks onto the value of all other crypto pretty much.

It didnt click in my head but we all know fake moves like this can be inverse to the apparent price action.   Price went down in a fake move, hence it was a reasonable time to buy in on an average cost basis like you mention.
Cant say I saw that at the time but I've seen it a few times in various markets that short term selling can provide a fake out.   The move up has also been a surprise but is related to this I think

Feb prices were a series of lows rising, that trend at the time was quite slow but it was an incline and more bullish then given credit for.   As it was such a regular trend it probably should have been better rated as a good buy

I strongly agree with the opinion that you stated that it is very difficult to determine about bitcoin, because bitcoin has its own uniqueness which is sometimes difficult to understand. so determining the bottom part of the price is also difficult to understand, especially maybe there are also many who have different conclusions.
what is clear is that bitcoin is heading towards a fairly good improvement.

Buying at the bottom is the dream of all investors but no-one knows where the bottom is including the whale manipulators. They can try are create the bottom but there is always another whale with a different idea

I find the lowest limit by finding the most efficient machine cost. If the hash rate is stable there is not logical way for bitcoin to cross the price floor of the most efficient miner without miners having to shut down computers and lower the hash rate. Bitcoin only has "no risk" (by this I meant negligible 8% risk of lowering to the lowest price floor) when it is close to the floor. When it is high above the floor the risk can be astronomical.

I specifically made this price floor to understand EXACTLY how much speculation was in the market. By knowing the cost of "prepaid" bitcoins that miners are mining I know how much bitcoin is traded for wholesale. If I contrast that with the spot price on markets I know the retail. It is not worth buy expensive retail bitcoin during high speculation.

It is about investing in bitcoin at the appropriate times and selling bitcoin at the appropriate times. Knowing my data would of told you to buy bitcoin on Feb 7, during march, or on May 2. Not very many people have access to the true bitcoin price floor. Many of the "top" traders were predicting $2000/$1000 on feb 7, when that was just a ridiculous emotional response. Ignorant of the true mechanics of bitcoin.

I am trying to build a client base of intelligent traders, so I can expand my fundamentals and dig deeper into understanding this new market. No FOMO or speculation, just logic and numbers

Thank you for your comment.

Aaron

Hindsight is always 20/20. What is difficult is predicting where the "true floor" is, which I think a lot of the times TA alone is unable to do so if you don't take into account a lot of the macro factors alongside with some technical analysis.

I think that the easiest way to realise at that stage where the market was at and why it was bottoming was looking at the mainstream investor sentiment, which was extremely bearish, and there was a general fear and uncertainty within the market. Heck, you've got Tom Lee lowering his outlandish predictions - that how bad things were getting.

Going against the market sentiment and looking at the fundamentals of bitcoin at that stage was the rational thing to do, and if you did so, you would have realised that bitcoin was vastly undervalued, and looking at historical trends of bear markets bottoming out at around 20-25% of the peak price beforehand, you would have came to the same conclusion, without any TA.

The analysis you presented is quite clear and opens my mind to speculation about price and risk. But my question is if indeed bitcoin has no risk then how do we determine the lowest bitcoin floor or the last floor.
Everyone here I'm sure only a few understand about science, even they only rely on speculation and FOMO. So how do you determine the lowest bitcoin price limit?

At the previous hash rate it was physically unable to go below that point because that would mean the miners were mining at negative profit (which is fundamentally stupid). No one does anything in a business sense for negative profit. Miners are intelligent people, and if they weren't able to mine for profit they would switch off their machines and use their electricity money to buy bitcoin or simply wait.

The hash rate is a real thing, and when it is at a point there has to be X amount of money going to electricity and Y amount of money invested in assets and infrastructure. If the price was going to go below $3300 the hash rate would of dropped to the correct new price floor.

Manipulation is rampant in crypto. Pump and dumps are very profitable. There will always be volatility in crypto. I just want to help my clients be able to see what is happening and know their risk so they can profit too.

Aaron  

You know, I do not think that fundamental analysis works in the cryptocurrency market. In my opinion, technical analysis works very well in this market. And loading the brain additionally also makes no fundamental analysis.

Thank you for your support. I made these analytics so that people can see what the true value of crypto is. I no longer trade on feelings, emotions, or where I think bitcoin will be in a year. I trade now with these metrics which tell me the cash flow and assets (i.e. the actual investments) of crypto. I am now immune to scams and I know my risk.

I made this stuff for people so they don't have to learn the technical terms and research halving and know what mining equipment is coming out. I do all that for you

My pleasure,

Aaron

On your likn it seems like you are trying to analyze the BTC price basing on mining cost, electricity cost etc. which is wrong by default. If miner had to pay X amount of money to mine a coin then it doesn't mean that the price won't get under that point. People are buying different assets and then selling it for lower price to fix their losses. Miners can't force people to hodl their coins.
And I'm just curious:
Why da fuck electricity cost at 9:40 AM is different from cost on 10:30 AM ?

So let me ask you this, did you just realize that $3370 was btc price floor now that it has risen to 7k+ or you already new this since february 7 and you didn't made your post then? because i see your publication is very recent,
And again you already know where this current price floor is judging from your post but i don't see you mentioning it here so that when the time comes we can make reference to your earlier post to compare if is right or wrong
thanks for taking your time to educate us

According to the article you posted:


Can some mining experts here refute or prove his theory though? I think I would consider this 'controversial' though. I never heard of miners just go and stop mining and then started to buy bitcoins. Although we have a lot of discussions about the dropping hash rate at that time.

Anyway, goodluck to your project, looks like you just gave us a glimpse on your theory. The thing though is that you need to subscribe $19.99 to have "access to the weekly fundamental email as well as daily fundamental website updates. "

I know that science is evolving every day, and even the technical analysis is evolving as well, everything is evolving. But let's be honest here ... Who really had absolute guarantees that $3300 was the lowest price that bitcoin would reach? I saw a lot of pessimistic comments and all the pessimistic comments that I saw, had the idea that the price would fall to $2500 and others said it would fall to $1000. it was as if most people were convinced that the price would not recover in the next two years. I had already lost all hope that I would see more than $8000 still in this year of 2019.

Great analysis and I'm amazed by how you analyzed and predict the future of the market that easy and advanced.
Let's say your analyzation could possibly happen but keep in mind that the market could go into another situation surprisingly and unexpectedly. Sometimes, it goes in a different path more than what we expect.

By all means provide your methods here. I am open to the idea of certain methods providing insights on the market. I recall some of the leading technical analysts out there, such as Tone Vays and Tyler Jenks, missing the bottom - assuming we are out of the bear market. I haven't looked at your methods so I can't really critique them.

Historically, buying and holding has worked out well for investors. This strategy has also worked for Amazon investors.

As per checking your analysis, I have seen how you have observed every single detail of the market movement. It will be a big help for those who are having confusions about the volatility of the market. It's good too and everything is actually easy to understand.

I am impressed with this analysis and data presented on your site. Indeed, this can help for us who are into bitcoin so that we can ascertain where is the floor price against the actual coin price. Interestingly, when the coin price is below the actual price miners would be participating in the market buying more bitcoin so these people are themselves playing with the market this way. I am not good with technical terms and understanding with cryptocurrency so this guide can be of big help to widen my knowledge. Thanks for sharing, Aaron.

It is less about precisely timing the market, and more about understanding the basic cash flow and asset amounts active in bitcoin. How can you dollar-cost average if you have no idea where the floor is. If I think bitcoin can go to zero from any height dollar cost averaging doesn't work. If I know the baseline operating floor for bitcoin I can more effectively dollar cost in.

https://www.amsinger.org/fundamental-method

This is an explanation of the best practices for dollar-cost averaging into bitcoin. With an understanding of the baseline, you can gauge the speculation. If you know the speculation you can sell for a premium and buy for a discount.

Aaron

In my view people should not attempt to precisely time this market, because it is so volatile and erratic, and possibly manipulated. I prefer to dollar-cost average during bear markets and buy strategically during bull markets. The best time to buy was during the latter part of 2018, IMO.

Hey guys,

I have published my data and complete analysis here on my site:

https://www.amsinger.org/open-research

This is the true reason bitcoin didn't go below the $3370 point. It had gone below 4 of the 5 price floors, but it did not go through the true price floor. This is why it is called the TRUE price floor. The price went to $4160 16 days later.

If you had access to this data, you would have seen that an investment in bitcoin at this time had virtually no risk. Understanding risk is the cornerstone of investing. That is why it is called investing and not gambling.

If you are curious to see how you can get use price floors in your trading and understand your risk, check out my sample analysis page:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

The current fundamentals to BTC , BCH, ETH, and LTC are available.

Trading without knowing the fundamentals and risk is like flying without an altimeter. Don't be a fool, know your risk.

Aaron

P.S. The current price of bitcoin has a very different price floor and risk level than Feb 7. It is good to know where the true floor is. Currently I am short, but I know EXACTLY where I am long. I am trying to educate people on what is actually happening, and hopefully stabilize the crypto markets. Please let me know what you think!