Topic: How to predict the start of a new Bull Market using a data driven model (Read 270 times)

This project looks great.
Nevertheless, it is necessary to take into account that the market has unpredictable phases and amplitudes of fluctuations. It depends on the fundamental indicators, and on the crypto market. And also data sample is still small to create statistics with large time intervals.

History might indeed not repeat itself one by one, but it does rhyme, according to leading economists. In fact many financial experts like Peter Schiff made mistakes predicting the future (stock market collapse) by examining past events and taking them into context. If we get a stock market crash this year, then his methodology was right, he was just a off with the timeline.

All in all I think it's better to rely on data than on endless speculation that is rooted primary in our minds.

indeed history does not repeat itself, but history will not change and from that we can learn and analyze to conclude what happens in the future.

Isn't that the case already now? At my almost workplace everyone talked about crypto 6 months ago, then it was quietening down and now people moved on and rarely talk. Also the volume is low and google trends show record low search requests for all block chain related terms. If this is not the bottom than I don't what else needs to happen.

Market isn't predictable, but Technical Analysis rely on previous support and resistance areas for future ones, this for me is the predictability of the market. A bull run is definitely on the horizon...BTC might even test new lows before this happens. Let's be optimistic

Definitely right and was supposed to say the same thing which History doesn't repeat and its not a sure thing even though we do see its previous price path but doesn't mean it would guaranteed to happen once again but I would say sooner or later there would really be a possible recovery because not all the times market would be like this which is on dump state. We might see a growth but this would be a slow and on gradual aspect I believe.

If market is predictable no one can ever loses. But then all of us hopes that the market will uprise. Let's see what will happen all of us just waiting and hoping that it back to track.

Nice analysis and it is nice seeing someone defending their position with actual data, and while I find this interesting at the same time for long term holders that is not really a problem, we know there is going to be another bull market in the future, we do not know when but as long as you keep holding your coins then you will be here to get all the profits, so predicting the next bull market is only a problem for traders.

You did a good analysis..I agree with you..When we look at the graphics in the past years, I think it will be the same thing this year.

History doesn't repeat itself. We could even see bitcoin testing new lows before going up again but your model can help people to gauge how close the market is bottoming. Another way to gauge market bottom is when the crypto market is boring and many people have already cut their losses.

explaining the bull run is easy :
Bull run is when panic sellers stop selling they're bag low and the whales are all in Long

your analysis is very reasonable and easy to understand, I agree with you that history is important. if we always see it, then we will know that the pattern is always the same.

Still even with the data that you have presented it is still a 50/50 percent chance that it will have a bull run in December and the speculation of some people having a dip in prices this month came out true but what we can only do now is be ready in the bull run the is yet to come whether it will be sooner or whether it will come until next year.

I also don't know if data driven models work in crypto but it's probably better to rely on data than your gut feeling,  instincts or emotions. I did this in the past the outcome was not something very fruitful,  to put it lightly

I think you can be right, we will see it. I don't know if data driven models work well for crypto, we'll see.

I think this is impossible. If the market is predictable. Then you can only rely on intuition. Otherwise there will be no ups and downs.

Yes, we all will hope for it! We are all very tired of the endless fall of the market and we already want growth. Therefore, we pray and hope that in November the market will be green

Though it is data driven it may be wrong but the date for next bull run seems very reasonable for me. Not too late also not early.

prediction differs, because no one is really know what it is going on in the future. Focusing on the instant fluctuation is more practical

Market wont really have bear market forever and time comes sooner or later there would be a bullish trend or rather a gradual increase of prices on most coins in the market.
Cryptocurrency do have that big potential for long term and we know that but the thing that put us on hesitations is on the volatility itself and this is why we do really think and giving out negative speculations.

Good day. November is still a long way to go but its good news nevertheless. Still hoping the bull run will come early. The market is covering slowly. Well at least we will be having a merry Christmas by the looks of it. Just hodl. Not selling altcoins at a loss.

The date in november is not really the point, no one can predict the exact date. But the reason I shared this is I think many are not aware that the cycles are much longer and therefore the current situation is nothing to worry about.

I think if more people would connect these dots then there was less panic and anxiety in this space.

Well, it would be nice, but last December was so great for crypto, because of the hype, that it will change so many things.
It didn't.
However, it could. There are some genuine great ideas. Howeverm most of the crypto world is just based on wrong ideas in my opinion, and destined to fall.

I mean, I completely believe there will be another bull market at some point, but I can't help but think of the phrase you common hear over and over again in relation to traditional investments:

"Past performance does not necessarily predict future results."

Just because previous bear markets have lasted x amount of time, does not in any way mean this one will be a similar length of time.

your predict in november will be a bull run, so many my friend predict thats november will be a green and green for cryptocurrency...i hope its happen before october

Lot's of people are currently worried and think about leaving the market.

People saying that alts go to zero and it's game over for Bitcoin or the previous atm will never be reached again.

After reading this you will come to the conclusion that there is no reason for that at all.

I am sharing here a model used to calculate the average time between Bull and Bear Markets as well as the percentage of the Bitcoin price increase during the bull run and the decline following the Bear Market.

It is called Predictive Analytics, and based on examining historical data, identify patterns and predict the future.

You can use this analysis to precisely predict the next Bull run and the approximate price appreciation.

Price Appreciation vs Depreciation in Bull vs Bear Markets


In the recent years Bull Runs the price of Bitcoin increased by 2900%, 1000%, 995%, 1950%
On average the price appreciation of Bitcoin was: 1698%

In the following Bear Markets the price of Bitcoin decreased by 93%, 72%, 72%, 68%
On average the price depreciation of Bitcoin was: 76%

Average Timelines of Bull and Bear Markets  

Average duration of Bull Markets in recent years: 420 days
Average duration of Bull Markets in recent years: 315 days

Duration of current Bear Market: 222 days

Mathematical projection of new bull market: 92 days

Based on this model it is likely we will see a new bull market start on 15.11. 2018

Now this is not speculation, but a predictive analysis based on historical data.

The data points to 2 main conclusions.

1. During a Bull Market the prices increase significantly more than they decrease during a Bear Market.
2. Once a cycle changes it takes a lot of time for a reversal, during these times the value consistently increase or decreases

Looking at this model, there is no reason for any panic, we are well with the parameters.

In the past the market has always recovered, in other words after a long bear market there was always a new bull market, It is normal that after a 6 months bear market people are starting to loose hope. But if you look at the data 6 months are not that long.

I hope this helped you to get some hope and a more positive outlook.

(In case it did you give a more positive outlook I would welcome some merit, thanks)