How Will Bitcoin Futures affect Bitcoin and Altcoin Prices?

logicgate

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on December 18, 2017, 06:30:17 AM

everyone's been saying that futures don't affect the spot market, but today's action seems to prove the opposite. upon CME futures launch, the futures market instantly dumped $2300 in ~2 hours on high volume. the spot market reacted to it immediately, dropping about $1500. given that this happened right at the market open, i tend to think it's not a coincidence. the spot market followed CME.

and that volume profile looks like some big guys are shorting the CME contracts. not sure how wise that is. Tongue

Quote from: BrewMaster on December 18, 2017, 01:01:47 AM

altcoin prices won't be affected by anything apart from their individual pump and dumps.

i beg to differ. altcoin prices are highly correlated to bitcoin. if bitcoin crashes, the altcoin market will crash even harder since BTC is the primary base pair and due to thin books.

Altcoins are also gaining some of values to fascinate their investor but they will never come close to bitcoin and a single chance for use to buy bitcoin at some lower prices will give a havoc to the alts and they will again come down to earth and this is true and now investors are also going for eth because it is the 2nd trustable crypto and people are getting minute profit from it as well so there is no chance for altcoin to rise.

oblivi

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Now that we've had CBOE for a week and CME for a couple of days it's safer to make a conclusion, and it's clear that futures haven't had a clear impact on the price. The current dip is just normal behaviour of the Bitcoin price which tends to dip during price discovery after an all time high and re-test previous resistance points. I haven't seen an stampede of bulls shorting at all.

STT

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The simple answer to this is contracts for a price with a solid exchange should be preferable to large money then getting directly involved. I think it means a reduced price volatility within online exchanges as now holdings of BTC can be hedged. Nobody needs to go out in panic because price fell if they gain via their futures contract on the lower price.

Its a reduction but not elimination clearly.

So far as alt coins, I also think its a positive. Less frequent large scale moves in the main exchangable crypto means we should see increased stability as a ratio. It helps people see growth more easily in their exchange prices, graphs make sense. Investor confidence rises in startup projects like new crypto and tokens which improves the overall investment cycle perhaps.

It should be a positive long term effect, I dont know we see it immediately. Come back in 6 months maybe, a bit like the block reward change we all speculated on in 2016 - it took a while to effect

justdimin

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Quote from: Victorycoin on December 06, 2017, 02:08:11 PM

Quote from: dveddfe on December 02, 2017, 07:58:44 PM

..as speculators that was left out of the bitcoin run up, will get a chance to trade bitcoin futures as an alternative thereby reducing the desire to purchase bitcoins or altcoins.

Those futures are certainly not for all comers because they're traded in lot and there's usually minimum lot set by the exchange and only those with the financial muscles are able to pick those up. Besides the transactions are going to be cash settled and knowing that demand and supply moves prices, we can't miss to see the price of Bitcoin responding to market bias in the Futures market.

The market will most definitely be responding as time goes on. This is new though, with a whole huge decentralized market and then having the futures by the side betting on the value, that seems something that the wall street guy would not want to try their manipulation tactics on, but in the long run, I believe this is a good thing as we will at least have another interesting journey ahead with the futures market.

kryptqnick

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Quote from: DamCryp on December 04, 2017, 10:26:57 AM

Prediction are that these futures will create stability, as orders are triggered in big moves that will prevent huge rises or drops in short periods of time. I do belive people will still want to own the underlyning asset just like in gold you see people owning the metal as safe haven ieven if they can invest in futures. At the end of the day a BTC is a BTC a future is a bet you don't own the asset

I don't think they can succeed in regulating bitcoin and making it more stable. Firstly, lots of people will still deal with bitcoin the old way, they won't go through these CME contracts, because there would be no reason to do that. Secondly, we don't know whether enough people would like to use these contracts instead of dealing with other stocks they usually buy/sell. Thirdly, I am not sure if CME is actually interested in stabilization of bitcoin, because they also aim to make some profits and price fluctuations are needed for that.

upsidedown75

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Quote from: meer45 on December 04, 2017, 01:25:50 PM

I think it is going to increase the price in the long term, since some of that "big money" will start coming in. However, we might expect fewer of the "wild swings" which we have experienced a number of times so far, where the price may go up or down by 1K within a day.

It may, it may not. No one really knows. The futures market will be on its own while the bitcoin market will be on its own.

Nevertheless, this is still a good step forward even though the wall street guys cannot be trusted, but I believe with what I am seeing with the chats so far, things are getting better, rather than the huge rush in prices and the high level of volatility.

beerlover

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Quote from: DamCryp on December 04, 2017, 10:26:57 AM

Prediction are that these futures will create stability, as orders are triggered in big moves that will prevent huge rises or drops in short periods of time. I do belive people will still want to own the underlyning asset just like in gold you see people owning the metal as safe haven ieven if they can invest in futures. At the end of the day a BTC is a BTC a future is a bet you don't own the asset

Yes, but I would not want to be too comfortable on that as well though. It will sure affect the stability of the prices but looking at some of the predictions they have had so far, I am sure bitcoin has really beaten the imagination. However, it is a start; we cannot really say much for now until after we keep rolling for years to see the dramas that would unfold within these periods.

I am not sure there would be any destroyed desire to purchase bitcoin just because they were left out. Futures is a totally different ball game and everything is more like gambling and predicting prices, but this is a world that cannot easily be manipulated which I am sure the goons in the wall street will really want to have their hands on but in the long run, I do not see anything negative much happening to bitcoin as a whole.

figmentofmyass

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everyone's been saying that futures don't affect the spot market, but today's action seems to prove the opposite. upon CME futures launch, the futures market instantly dumped $2300 in ~2 hours on high volume. the spot market reacted to it immediately, dropping about $1500. given that this happened right at the market open, i tend to think it's not a coincidence. the spot market followed CME.

and that volume profile looks like some big guys are shorting the CME contracts. not sure how wise that is. Tongue

Quote from: BrewMaster on December 18, 2017, 01:01:47 AM

altcoin prices won't be affected by anything apart from their individual pump and dumps.

i beg to differ. altcoin prices are highly correlated to bitcoin. if bitcoin crashes, the altcoin market will crash even harder since BTC is the primary base pair and due to thin books.

Lancusters

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Now futures are testing only with bitcoins. I think it's not a good idea so we don't know how this will end. On the basis of information about futures we can roughly predict what will be the rising price of bitcoin, but for those who are involved in such transactions, this can be a big problem. Speculators knowing the volume of payments can easily manipulate the price.

nl247

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Quote from: mafostedu on December 18, 2017, 01:13:31 AM

Futures for altcoins? no way, it will never happen, and maybe it if happen it will only be for Ethereum or whatever the most important altcoin after bitcoin is during those times.

But i doubt that it will happen in a near time.

We cannot say how the altcoins will fair for now, but in the long run, some altcoins will really do well and get the attentions. It would not be only Ethereum, it would be a large market and that is why in the long run, only Alts with products and solid project backing will last. However, for now, we just have to keep seeing the response to the market and how the starting of the bitcoin market and the future market really end up. As far as I am concerned, there is still going to be a lot of drama ahead.

reda

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Quote from: DeltaX on December 18, 2017, 05:31:25 AM

Quote from: mafostedu on December 18, 2017, 01:13:31 AM

Futures for altcoins? no way, it will never happen, and maybe it if happen it will only be for Ethereum or whatever the most important altcoin after bitcoin is during those times.

But i doubt that it will happen in a near time.

Another altcoin that will have the futures trade just like litecoin or bitcoin cash, it may be possible in my opinion if the altcoin gets very good track in the crypto history and it should be added into the futures. trade, but as you can see the fact that the futures trade didn't give a lot of the impact to the crypto market. Because there will be no money will be flying to the crypto marketcapitalization or at least to pump the price.

Most of the people hold the bitcoin for the future invest. If bitcoin releas in the market places prices will be go down. Then it will wait for the prices incres. So you will thing for the bitcoin prices information and gather some informarion the chooose the coin and invest for the future growth. Bitcoin altcoin is differ. One coin increas the prices other coin will be down. So it will some time affect the future. But both of coin will be use in the market place. So you will get some information for plan to work and process.

DeltaX

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Quote from: mafostedu on December 18, 2017, 01:13:31 AM

Futures for altcoins? no way, it will never happen, and maybe it if happen it will only be for Ethereum or whatever the most important altcoin after bitcoin is during those times.

But i doubt that it will happen in a near time.

Another altcoin that will have the futures trade just like litecoin or bitcoin cash, it may be possible in my opinion if the altcoin gets very good track in the crypto history and it should be added into the futures. trade, but as you can see the fact that the futures trade didn't give a lot of the impact to the crypto market. Because there will be no money will be flying to the crypto marketcapitalization or at least to pump the price.

player514

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Quote from: mafostedu on December 18, 2017, 01:13:31 AM

Futures for altcoins? no way, it will never happen, and maybe it if happen it will only be for Ethereum or whatever the most important altcoin after bitcoin is during those times.

But i doubt that it will happen in a near time.

In the near future, I agree with you probably not. I guess it all boils down to what time has really come to -- with bitcoin, just a month can double your money and this level of growth has basically never been seen before, so it messes with what people agree upon when they say "long term." If you're talking about maybe the next year or two, yes it's possible that it won't be a thing, but if we're talking about the next decade, I think it's more than likely we'll see options for the Altcoins. Think about it through the growth of eth and litecoin that we've been seeing over the past few months. That level just can't be pushed to the side and forgotten about.

mafostedu

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Futures for altcoins? no way, it will never happen, and maybe it if happen it will only be for Ethereum or whatever the most important altcoin after bitcoin is during those times.

But i doubt that it will happen in a near time.

TERA2

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Deb Rah Von Doom

Unless altcoins also have futures, futures will bring the alt.btc ratios DOWN first because it's an advantage that only bitcoin has and second because the money is supporting fake bitcoins and not real bitcoins which would be on altcoin exchanges.

BrewMaster

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There is trouble abrewing

altcoin prices won't be affected by anything apart from their individual pump and dumps.

bitcoin price on the other hand may be affected for a short while, like in one or two months because of these new markets and mostly because people are having weird but wild expectations out of them. and whenever people expect these things they usually act on it. so if they expect a drop they may sell and cause some small but short term drops.
in long term i am expecting much more popularity because of these and as a consequence price will rise a lot more.

Victorycoin

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Quote from: dveddfe on December 02, 2017, 07:58:44 PM

..as speculators that was left out of the bitcoin run up, will get a chance to trade bitcoin futures as an alternative thereby reducing the desire to purchase bitcoins or altcoins.

Those futures are certainly not for all comers because they're traded in lot and there's usually minimum lot set by the exchange and only those with the financial muscles are able to pick those up. Besides the transactions are going to be cash settled and knowing that demand and supply moves prices, we can't miss to see the price of Bitcoin responding to market bias in the Futures market.

meer45

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I think it is going to increase the price in the long term, since some of that "big money" will start coming in. However, we might expect fewer of the "wild swings" which we have experienced a number of times so far, where the price may go up or down by 1K within a day.

DamCryp

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Prediction are that these futures will create stability, as orders are triggered in big moves that will prevent huge rises or drops in short periods of time. I do belive people will still want to own the underlyning asset just like in gold you see people owning the metal as safe haven ieven if they can invest in futures. At the end of the day a BTC is a BTC a future is a bet you don't own the asset

dveddfe

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Both the CBOE and CME announced Bitcoin futures trading will be available around mid December. I think the demand for bitcoin will be reduced as the result of this implication as speculators that was left out of the bitcoin run up, will get a chance to trade bitcoin futures as an alternative thereby reducing the desire to purchase bitcoins or altcoins.

Don't get me wrong through, the demand for crypto currencies will still be high in the near term and foreseeable future.

Topic: How Will Bitcoin Futures affect Bitcoin and Altcoin Prices? (Read 580 times)