Topic: How will CBDCs will impact Bitcoin? (Read 509 times)

Like paper money/fiat, I believe the CBDC will always be under the control of a central bank. It's centralized, not decentralized.

Stable coins are not true crypto also and I suppose that they are even more risky than fiat currencies. So there are some negative sides both of stable coins and of CBDC. Problems with understanding a difference between true crypto (decentralized) and centralized imitations of true crypto (stable coins, CBDC and much more) is already a negative impact of popularized by governments CBDC.

In terms of transaction mechanism, fiat (paper money) also has decentralized conditions at some point, such as self-custody, no censorship, (possibly) the transaction footprint can be reduced for privacy purposes, etc.
If cbdc is made referring to the features of paper money without removing any of the innate capabilities, then the importance of CBDC for people (imo) can outperform bitcoin, even transactions should be able to work without an internet network.

I think it is not going to be an alternative to bitcoin but more like alternative to usdt, which means that there will be a lot of people who will use it, and it will be very much liked. All these people who claim that it will hurt crypto do not know what they are talking about, if a government is doing CBDC that means they are actually promoting crypto to a point and that's a good thing.

I believe that we are going to be doing just fine and it should be something we really enjoy and promote ourselves as well. If a government accepted it and uses it, that means they are actually quite fine about crypto as well and that means we can promote crypto saying the government promotes it as well.

CBDC is digital fiat, so its actually worse than cash. In short, they want to create money without spending in paper and ink, i know very well as my country has been doing it for years and even made the first State backed crypto (a CBDC before the acronym was invented) which was an absolute failure (they themselves don't use it despite their propaganda).

Just as current fiat doesn't realty affect bitcoin, neither will this. CBDCs are NOT an alternative to Bitcoin, they miss all the fundamental features that make bitcoin more valuable. Its only alleviating the State from spending in printing and custody of physical banknotes.

CBDCs and Bitcoin have a different purposes. Therefore, I don't see much impact the CBDC will cause on Bitcoin than it making people know there's a certain cryptocurrency ^{(which is Bitcoin)} was the main reason that give the government idea of creating their own CBDC which I believe will make people that only see BTC as a scam to literally to some surfing about it.

I have a different opinion about bitcoin from you. I do not like bitcoin as a currency, I prefer it as an asset or a commodity like gold. To be a currency it has to have a stable value and be controlled by the government, you can't expect a currency not approved by the government, that will never happen and if bitcoin becomes stable, it will be no different from the current government CBDC. But if it is an asset like gold then its value will always fluctuate according to the demand from which we can make a profit.

I don't think the @OP is trying to say CBDC will make Bitcoin price decreased since he's only asking what's the impact of CBDC to Bitcoin, it can be good or bad. Actually if people are using Bitcoin as a currency, it doesn't really mean it make Bitcoin price decreased too, we need a trading volume since it's a sign if people has a high to buy Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin should be used as a currency since it's the best way to increase huge Bitcoin adoption.

Some governments promote CBDC as a better and safer crypto so there will be some impact as decent number of potential Bitcoin users will not learn about it enough to start using. In another hand using digital money will give an experience of doing so and motivate some others for learning more and to know about Bitcoin what is an impact also. May be impact will be not too big but some impact will be.

But yes, CBDC is just another form of fiat, I totally agree.

CBDCs in several countries have been launched for several years, but you can see for yourself that it doesn't affect the price of bitcoin at all, that's also what will happen in the future, with the massive use of CBDC, it won't make bitcoin prices depressed because many people use bitcoin as an investment asset. rest assured that bitcoin is the only asset that can stand up to any pressure.

So far, the list is small, especially if you consider the tiny population of some of these places and basically only Nigeria being a major country among them. IMO, given that the talks of CBDCs have been around for years, this actually shows how little interest in the actual implementation turns out to be. It's not significant enough yet to have any impact on Bitcoin. If CBDCs do become widespead, I don't believe they'll compete with cryptos. However, as side effect might be a less friendly stance of the govs regarding cryptos, along the lines 'use our controlled and regulated currencies, not decentralized ones'. It's still early to talk of that, though, as it's unclear whether CBDCs will ever get widespead, and whether that would have an anti-crypto tendency.

Of course, fiat is not completely anonymous but the government will not be able to control us completely like CBDCs.

Regulation is certainly inevitable but in my opinion, it is not good for the market but more specifically for us. Once the regulations are enacted, the scam projects will disappear or the scammers will be properly punished and the interests of investors will be protected. But with regulation, the government will control everything we do, we will lose our privacy. We got into crypto because we hate government control and banks and bitcoin has given us the freedom, the right to own our own property. But now the government wants to control us again, that doesn't make us any better.

Somehow you interpret cryptocurrency itself, if because they use blockchain then Norwegian CBDC is a cryptocurrency^[1].
Other facts are that several experimental CBDC projects use blockchain as the basis for the ledger^[2], have even been started since 2015.

1. https://cointelegraph.com/news/norwegian-central-bank-uses-ethereum-to-build-national-digital-currency
2. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405959521001399#tbl2

But lots of coins are just masking under true crypto and are centralized in fact or partly centralized. So it is always important to keep in mind that only decentralized decisions could be true crypto, not only when you are faced with CBDC. Of course CBDC is not true crypto, but formally it is a currency which uses cryptography for emission... non true crypto, but... So IMO we should be always on our's guard, and look not only on a formal part but on a content part at the first.

Which kind of regulation are we talking about? cause it will differ in consequence regarding what kind of regulation.

If people still have the option to use Bitcoin and CBDC is not being heavily enforced as a sole basis of the payments system, it won't bother a thing to Bitcoin. CBDC is just another way of payment method for the FIAT that currently exists, each has its own pros and cons, and so does Bitcoin. So, if there isn't any draconian regulations, bitcoin will stand on its own, since it offers unique way of features and benefit that people could make use of.

Sure CBDC won't have any  impact  on bitcoin, if something impacts bitcoin, it can only be regulation, regulation will affect bitcoin so much. The government created CBDC their purpose is not to compete with bitcoin but to bring convenience to them. Using CBDC will help them save a lot of things such as printing costs or storage, transportation...and manage us better.

People still are using digital mode of fiat payments like your wallet is connected to your bank account and you can pay through your banking system and I think CDBC are not different from them and have they affected btc in the opposite direction? They are actually decentralised and those CDBC the government plan on to bring are still under their control so what difference will it make to use them? So in my opinion btc will always have its impact over people.

Regarding central banks' digital currencies there are already many articles and the point of creating them is interesting to me, we all know that bitcoin is created to become a big competitor for the fiat currencies with a limited supply in which governments cannot have any control on it, so that's not surprising to see the governments are trying to create a computer for bitcoin but if you look deep inside it you can understand CBDC is not different than the traditional fiat currency because both of them are centralised and being controlled by the governments. 

I believe CBDCs are worst than fiat currencies in terms of inflation. There are less production cost for CBDCs than fiat currencies. Much less infrastructures for minting, maintenance and so on. Governments can mint $T in one click when they want to do this without prerequisite to have paper, polymer, print, printing machines, human resources etc. This brings convenience to governments that in turn will make their inflationary management worse.

CBDCs will never compete directly with Bitcoin. What they compete is usage demand from their citizens by choosing either fiat currencies or CBDCs.

The majority of other countries are also developing their own CBDCs and we will see them within the next year or two. If we talk about the impact of CBDCs on bitcoin, they don't really have any effect on bitcoin, as you said they are stable coins but issued by the government, not private companies.

But they will greatly affect our privacy, once CBDC is implemented and obligatory, we will be completely controlled by the government. It's something I almost don't want to happen, but it's going to be hard to avoid.

CBDC does not compete with bitcoin as long as there is fiat and digital money. Once this type of money ceases to exist and banks switch to CBDC only, cryptocurrencies will immediately become illegal. I don't think it will happen soon, but when it does, we will be facing a digital concentration camp with social ratings and lack of freedom. In China, this is already an accepted practice.

1.This question has been asked a million times on the forum. Asking it one more time doesn't add anything to the conversation. You are a Legendary Member, you should already know this.
2.The countries in your list aren't financial and technological global superpowers. I'm 99% sure that their CBDC projects will fail in the long term. Even if they launch CBDCs, their impact over crypto will be close to zero.
3.I'm still waiting to see a global superpower like China or the USA launching CBDCs. AFAIK, for some reason their CBDC projects aren't launched. Maybe I'm wrong about China. Anyway, a China CBDC won't impact crypto at all, because crypto is basically banned in China.

If we talking about criminals use fiat to launder money, it must be huge amount. Do you know how big and heavy if you carry large cash? you will need few suitcase in order to bought it, of course it will bring attention for police to check your suitcase. Although you may have other way to hide it, but it's still big and heavy, it will be hard to avoid it.

I absolutely know if he mean a paper cash, but as I said above it's not anonymous since you can still interact with other people in real life and you can't bring huge amount cash since it's big and heavy, which make it's not anonymous.

Not much. CBDCs are still fiat currencies that are made digital. They're not much different from the fiat that we use through fiat online wallets. It's just that there's no more hard cash representing them. They remain centralized because they're still issued by governments' central banks. They are still subject to the same inflationary mechanism. They're still continuously devalued. They're still under the control and decision of a few powerful individuals. The disadvantage, however, is that they're more easily tracked, monitored, frozen, seized, confiscated.   

The point is it doesn't actually compete against Bitcoin.

this has been said a lot before, CBDC will never be able to impact bitcoin, CBDC is just a digital version of fiat today and we can see that fiat is not a competitor to bitcoin, so CBDC is no different. But with the advent of CBDC, I am really afraid that our privacy will be more tightly controlled by the government, they can know our assets and can freeze anytime they want. CBDC is something very bad.

I do not think it will affect Bitcoin greatly.  Those the implements CBDC's hasn't been a Bitcoin fan anyway.  Besides, CBDC and Bitcoin has different market and target audience.   So I do not think that it will make Bitcoin market crash or whatever.


It is centralized so definitely not a competitor of Bitcoin because people who had experience decentralization will never wanted go back to centralization as much as possible.  Besides I think nothing changes because it is the same as fiat money but in digital form.

Many think it will because they think this is another competitor and it was bigger than the normal crypto because it was backed by the government or the banks but they didn't realize that these CBDC's are slightly different with cryptos. They are pretty much the same with local currencies but they are only digitalized for online use.

Some btc or crypto users will try them and maybe like them only to make things more easier for them but it doesn't mean they will totally migrate there. There will always be a demand for btc because this was still the main crypto. Btc is the future of money while CBDC's is the future form of the traditional currencies.

People do not realize what CBDC really is, and that's why they are so afraid of it. The reality is that it's something simple, it's USDT or BUSD basically but controlled by the government. First of all, when we get in and out of exchanges KYC means we are already tracked, which means when you turn your USD into USDT that means you are already tracked. So instead of trusting a company in the Bahamas and buying usdt, or trusting CZ and buying busd, you will trust the American government and buy their CBDC instead for example. I still wouldn't trust the nations listed in OP's message, but if a big nation does it, then I will trust it.

CBDC, in my personal view, will assist Bitcoin. It will have no effect on Bitcoin. We are having some issues with Bitcoin trades locally, such as p2p where Bitcoin is not legal. CDBC would make trading more efficient and faster. Centralized coins, which are infrequently controlled by the government, will not compete with decentralized currencies such as Bitcoin. So I'm positive about CDBC. At the very least, the government recognizes the significance of Bitcoin.

I do think CBDC will be massively used compared to cryptocurrency and in some cases, people will also be using CBDC to buy cryptocurrency as it would be allowed also.


This no KYC is probably just from the beginning but after a few years of adoption, they will be asking KYC. Nonetheless, CBDC is also here to stay.
Only those with tinfoil will keep hiding thier crypto unlinked to thier CBDC app account.

This is just the right way to look at it. I think there is really nothing new about the whole CBDC system from one having a local bank mobile bal and following up on his day yo day transactions. It'd as normal as it gets and for me, I doubt I would have any reason to key into the CBDC idea, I still see it to have nothing to offer other than being some fiat in an app.
Without operating the app to see what it's enter phase has to offer or the services there in, I would expect it to create a room for swapping and trading currencies else, what they only archive is some virtual fiat and nothing more.

I think he mean the paper cash transaction from person to person unless someone will identify the fingerprint of the owner which makes them trackable but I do agree on logic with paper cash deal since its a physical circulation which no one monitor the flow from person to person.

---

Back to the topic, Many discuss this before when stablecoin first introduce that it will be affected Bitcoin and look exactly what happening on crypto market by just Tether manipulating its supply.  I wonder what will the implications if USDT became rouge. I don’t want to completely ignore CBDC but let’s not worried about until it was already making some noise in the market.

I don’t think CBDC’s will negatively impact bitcoin at all. If anything it’ll probably push people towards bitcoin. CBDC’s are controlling & restrictive, where as bitcoin is great for people to control their own wealth.

Nobody wants the government being able to control their shopping & what they spend. CBDC’s are one step closer to social credit scores & literally nobody wants that. I suggest you buy bitcoin before CBDC’s come in & governments ban you from buying bitcoin.

Bitcoin is the future, CBDC’s are restrictive. Do not let anybody have the chance to stop you spending your money how you want to. Bitcoin is empowering & governments don’t like that.

Both fiat currencies and CBDCs are traceable but with CBDCs and blockchain technology, governments can have more easily to do their works.

With fiat currencies, in countries with good laws and regulations, their governments can have enough data to trace flow of your money and can more easily to detect money laundering. This is a good example on how regulations can contribute to help society better.

After the Terra and FTX collapses and some related entities, I believe more regulations will be executed soon but it is good for cryptocurrency and blockchain ecosystems in future.

Fiat is not completely anonymous but it can still be anonymous, just like criminals use fiat to launder money and do their evil deeds without being detected by the police. But if we get rid of fiat completely and replace it with CBDC, things can be very different because the government can control everything even our smallest actions.

But it is true that CBDC cannot affect bitcoin because in my opinion bitcoin is not a currency but an asset more like gold, but regulation will affect bitcoin.

I disagree. It doesn't matter on the location, what matters is the "HOW". For example when PayPal, credit cards, debit cards or even bitcoin were created they didn't change anything in the existing monetary system. You can and do still use cash and all existing methods are usable, the only difference is that now you have multiple options to choose from depending on the level of privacy, security and convenience you need.

Most probably CBDC will be another extra options on top of existing ones that won't change a thing in existing options.
However, HOW they enforce its usage makes the difference. If some government (be it Argentinean or Canadian government) decided to go full dictator mode and force everyone to use only CBDC and nothing else then it would be different than if they were suggesting it as an extra option with "benefits"(!) that you could freely choose to use.

Agreeing with NeuroticFish that this has been talked about and talked about over and over.

But, I was discussing this the other day with some other people and one of them pointed out that there is no answer to this question other then:

'It depends where you are' Most of the places listed in the OP are smaller nations. If say picking on a random country on the map...Argentina....did it that would have a different impact then if say Canada did it then if the Philippines did it.

So, thinking about it the answer is, there is no answer.....

-Dave

I don't think it will have a big impact on Bitcoin. On the contrary, it might bring new set of investors on the market. I mean if people realizes what CBDC is, as government might have total control of everyone as they can be track then perhaps they will shift to crypto such as BTC.

And we don't need to wait though, as far as I know there are countries who are already doing a test pilot and so far we are not affected by it in any form.

I'm thinking about the same impact that Tether made to bitcoin. When there are new printed Tether in the circulation, it buffs the price of bitcoin.

So in theory, that could be the same for CBDCs as we've got new sets and versions of Tether that might inject a lot of money again to the market. Well, that's what I can think of since it's just another version of a stable coin.

You can follow that website, CBDCtracker.org and get more updates and more details about countries that already launched or might launch their CBDCs. There are some main categories: Cancelled, Research, Proof of concept, Pilot, Launched on that website.

You are asking about a story between an egg and a chicken. There would be no Bitcoin if there are no fiat currencies and centralization, inflation from them. There would be no CBDCs if there is no Bitcoin.

All of cryptocurrency types will co-exist and they will interact with each other, support each other, compete with other in order to upgrade themselves better and bring more convenience to human.

i predict it will be Visa/mastercard running it in some fashion

CBDC is not where bank of england do everything for the british CBDC

what will happen is BOE will issue the initial premine of a few trillion CBDC£

smart contract it out to half a dozen commercial banks/payment services
and the commercial banks/services then handle the customer service/supervision stuff, because simple fact and logic there are not enough ministers/senators, civil servants to watch ever ones picnic and coffee purchases.. nor do they want or care to spy on everyone personally

..
if you research the chinese CBDC its not the PBOC thats handling it all. they have distributed the reserves(pre mine) to half a dozen commercial payment services
Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei, JD.com and UnionPay

the structure of the e-yuan
is the PBOC issue new currenct and share it down to the commerical payment services. the commercial services then have their own customers, so the commercial services then do the customer registration part and keep those databases inside the commercial services..

payments flow between the commercial services
if the commercial services find something suspicious they report that to the chinese department that deals with crimes.. not the PBOC and not the PRC
the police then see if its criminally suspicious, to then seek a court order via the court devision. which then gets the cops access to request more personally identifiable information about the individual account holder from the commercial service

oh and guess what folks
china. i said it china's CBDC has it where the payment services have 3 levels of account
amounts under monthly wage spends account level have no KYC. if you want to increase your income/expenditure limit. you can register for simple KYC and if your wealthy or run a business then you have to full KYC

..
its much the same as how the UK/US system works now..
and no, the US/UK system now of normal fiat is not where "government" are sat at computers watching everyones transaction.. they are reactive to reports cent by commercial banks

will people please do your research and use the search function instead of forming a silly opinion and then come in seeking people to agree with an opinion you might already have formed pre ask.

im not siding with anything but just writing what i have found out in my own research and observations.. but i keep seeing silly posts of people with no knowledge forming an opinion about something. asking a question hoping to get an answer that aligns with an opinion they have
 

I'm just wondering how much you can withdraw from your banks without getting asked why you always withdraw your money. Banks will ask you regarding what's the reason you withdraw your money and they're actually already know what have you done with your money, they just want to verify it. Don't forget someone that you've traded can expose your illegal business (if you did for criminal) and there's many CCTV can trace you.

Fiat isn't anonymous and CBDC will not give any impact to Bitcoin.

Can you buy today anonymous irreversible payment things with your card?
Or, even better, can you withdraw paper fiat from your card?
Also, can you buy Bitcoin with your card or with bank transfer?
Well, same will have to happen with CBDCs too.

CBDCs will be competition for Visa/Mastercard (centralized, fiat related), CBDCs will be competition for stable coins (centralized). Bitcoin (decentralized), as I said, will be pretty much unaffected.

Sure, but paper fiat cash is the most anonymous form of value you can find, whereas a CBDC is a representation of fiat paper cash that is fully trackable. So, with heavy regulation in place against cryptos won't this have a negative effect over Bitcoin?

You really need a 101th topic on this? Every week new topics pop up asking about this.
I've linked a very few of them:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5416457
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/cbdcs-cannot-save-weak-currencies-5419584
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/cbdcs-are-like-a-digital-prison-but-bitcoin-is-the-key-5419179
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/are-cbdcs-good-for-the-economy-5409436


Short answer: little to no impact. CBDCs are just another representation of fiat.

to normal fiat people they will just see it as another phone app. like paypal or venmo

certain CBDC are not as "overwatch" as tinfoil hat's proclaim
many of them have like a dozen different commercial banks being the account providers. where the commercial banks do the KYC.
and where within the commercial bank app. there are 3 levels of account
account limits(spendability amount per month) =under $xxx has no KYC
(imagine it like virtual debit card)
then basic kyc for above min salary to below small business amounts. then full KYC for the wealthier/business accounts

of course the currency inside the apps is not going to be deflationary so again its just fiat in a new app

so people will still, much like today want to hedge that inflation via a deflationary asset

CBDCs are coming, and they spell the end of the Private monetary policy as we know it. The list of countries adopting CBDCs is growing at a fast pace:

The Bahamas
Antigua and Barbuda
St. Kitts and Nevis
Monserrat
Dominica
Saint Lucia
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Grenada
Nigeria

Governments have already understood the sheer potential of the Blockchain to impose Total monetary control.

So, how do you guys think will affect Bitcoin?