Hypothetically.....How many bitcoin do I need to have today?

darkangel11

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Don't let others control your BTC -> self custody

Quote from: cellard on June 09, 2017, 10:20:16 AM

Quote from: CryptosapienZA on June 09, 2017, 10:12:15 AM

Lets assume I wanted to have $1.6million in bitcoin in 20years. If we ASSUME the growth in the price of bitcoin remains as is for the next 10 years, and not so much in the next(you can pick a %) Roll Eyes

. How many bitcoin would I need to have today?

It's impossible to predict how bitcoin will grow. I believe bitcoin will grow on bubble-burst cycles with huge pumps, dumps and new floors.

Most people believe in 21 BTC being a good goal. Think in terms of total supply. 21 puts you in a limited group of 1 million (less, considering current supply + lost BTCs)

This should put you in a wealthy situation sooner or later. If you want $1.6mm.. then you'll need $71k per coin. It's probably realistic in 20 years.

That's too much by far. Bitcoin has only 2 ways. It will either keep growing and become accepted by most countries, possibly even as a secondary currency, an alternative in case the main financial system goes to hell, or die. If the former happens, even 1BTC will be worth a fortune!
Let's do some math. in 10 years almost all coins will be mined and at least 10% will be permanently lost or unusable (Satoshi's stash, lost keys and passwords) We'll be left with with maybe 18 something million in circulation. The population of Japan is 126 million, so there won't be enough coins to supply the Japanese, not to mention the rest of the world. When people realize that they'll buy out everything.

CryptosapienZA

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Quote from: skorupi17 on June 09, 2017, 12:25:52 PM

Quote from: CryptosapienZA on June 09, 2017, 10:12:15 AM

Lets assume I wanted to have $1.6million in bitcoin in 20years. If we ASSUME the growth in the price of bitcoin remains as is for the next 10 years, and not so much in the next(you can pick a %) Roll Eyes

. How many bitcoin would I need to have today?

What do you mean by:

Quote

...the growth in the price of bitcoin remains as is...

Bitcoin's price growth is currently unstable and there are many ups and downs on its price within hours only. So can you enlighten us and explain your statement I just quoted in mathematical way.

Obviously that you cannot have a perfect answer for this, you even told us to assume a percentage of bitcoin's price growth after 10 years.

Why do you have to stick to a target if you can continue earning and buying from this day forward. That way, you may surpass your target.

The question was not intended to have one answer. Its a hypothetical question, and one can present their assumptions and argument.

CryptosapienZA

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Quote from: jonald_fyookball on June 09, 2017, 11:31:25 AM

Quote from: CryptosapienZA on June 09, 2017, 10:12:15 AM

Lets assume I wanted to have $1.6million in bitcoin in 20years. If we ASSUME the growth in the price of bitcoin remains as is for the next 10 years, and not so much in the next(you can pick a %) Roll Eyes

. How many bitcoin would I need to have today?

The question can't be answered precisely since the current rate of growth can be measured in different ways. You can't measure it "from the beginning" since it was worth 0 at the beginning, and the first 1-2 years saw astronomical growth.

But lets use some conservative figures.

According to my math, if price doubles each year, you need 0.55 BTC ...or if price increases only 50% each year, you need 9.9 BTC. (current price is $2830)

100% annual return = 2^10 = growth of 1024x = 10240%. 1.6M/1024 = $1562.5 = 0.55 BTC

50% annual return = 1.5^10 = growth of 57x = 5700%. 1.6M/57 = $28,070 = 9.9 BTC

EDIT: this is for 10 years, not 20. 20 years is harder to predict and the rates would slow down.

Thank you.

Cryptogott

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You should aim at least for 10 bitcoins. 21 is also fine but it is becoming impossible with every day passing.

skorupi17

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Quote from: CryptosapienZA on June 09, 2017, 10:12:15 AM

Lets assume I wanted to have $1.6million in bitcoin in 20years. If we ASSUME the growth in the price of bitcoin remains as is for the next 10 years, and not so much in the next(you can pick a %) Roll Eyes

. How many bitcoin would I need to have today?

What do you mean by:

Quote

...the growth in the price of bitcoin remains as is...

Bitcoin's price growth is currently unstable and there are many ups and downs on its price within hours only. So can you enlighten us and explain your statement I just quoted in mathematical way.

Obviously that you cannot have a perfect answer for this, you even told us to assume a percentage of bitcoin's price growth after 10 years.

Why do you have to stick to a target if you can continue earning and buying from this day forward. That way, you may surpass your target.

btccashacc

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I'm just gonna say that no one can really give you a correct answer to your question since we can't predict the future. However if we're optimist that the bitcoin's price would be skyrocket within 20 years i think you must save maybe arround 10-20 bitcoins starting from now and hoping the price would be hit 100k dollars or more. You know what 20 years it is a long journey we don't know what will happen in the future, there's only two possibilities it could be up or it could be nothing.

KnightElite

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We can't predict the value of the bitcoin in the next few years. The progress of the bitcoin is always up and down so it is very hard to predict what it is the value in the next 10 years.

shintosai

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hypothetically well after ten years for me you need 8 btc its just a wild guess without any supporting facts though but like we have seeing how fast the grow of bitcoin we really can't say when it will goes to that value, just keep holding what you can afford to hold and trust the system.

European Central Bank

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Quote from: oegarod on June 09, 2017, 11:35:50 AM

Right now holding a complete bitcoin is quite a good thing. Very few has got the chance of holding big number of bitcoin. Right now even a single bitcoin is more than enough as the price is expected and predicted to increase much higher.

one isn't enough, unless you're 12 now. the more you have the faster you arrive at your goal. if anyone can afford more and can afford the risk they need to be bolder than that. you need returns while you can still enjoy them.

the difference between holding 1 and 5 or 10 coins might get you where you want to be a decade or two quicker.

xskl0

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Bitcoin SV is Bitcoin

I'm optimist, I think 1.5 BTC can be enough

oegarod

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Right now holding a complete bitcoin is quite a good thing. Very few has got the chance of holding big number of bitcoin. Right now even a single bitcoin is more than enough as the price is expected and predicted to increase much higher.

tondiego

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If Bitcoin is going to be mainstream currency one day, which is very likely to happen in few years from now, then even 1 mBTC would be more than enough.

I don't know why, but majority of people interested in Bitcoins are still thinking about Bitcoin only in its basic units (not knowing it can be handled in smaller units), which is one of the biggest issue for wider adoption. Everybody wants to own a coin. Why?! Bitcoin is also mBTC.

21 million of Bitcoins is way too small number in terms of regular people owning at least one whole coin.

tittensor

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Quote from: CryptosapienZA on June 09, 2017, 10:12:15 AM

Lets assume I wanted to have $1.6million in bitcoin in 20years. If we ASSUME the growth in the price of bitcoin remains as is for the next 10 years, and not so much in the next(you can pick a %) Roll Eyes

. How many bitcoin would I need to have today?

If in 2037 the price of Bitcoin is 100.000$ / BTC, I think you need 16 BTC now if you want can sell it and get $1.6million in 20 years. I can't give you a value exactly, all is just predictable in future!

jonald_fyookball

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Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political

Quote from: CryptosapienZA on June 09, 2017, 10:12:15 AM

Lets assume I wanted to have $1.6million in bitcoin in 20years. If we ASSUME the growth in the price of bitcoin remains as is for the next 10 years, and not so much in the next(you can pick a %) Roll Eyes

. How many bitcoin would I need to have today?

The question can't be answered precisely since the current rate of growth can be measured in different ways. You can't measure it "from the beginning" since it was worth 0 at the beginning, and the first 1-2 years saw astronomical growth.

But lets use some conservative figures.

According to my math, if price doubles each year, you need 0.55 BTC ...or if price increases only 50% each year, you need 9.9 BTC. (current price is $2830)

100% annual return = 2^10 = growth of 1024x = 10240%. 1.6M/1024 = $1562.5 = 0.55 BTC

50% annual return = 1.5^10 = growth of 57x = 5700%. 1.6M/57 = $28,070 = 9.9 BTC

EDIT: this is for 10 years, not 20. 20 years is harder to predict and the rates would slow down.

iluvpie60

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In 10 years if bitcoin follows the same growth the price would be like 20,000 or a little higher. It is only going up by a thousand ish dollars per year. Or if you take from when it was created it has gone up what, 550 dollars per year average?

Also depends on if another coin is more widely used. Im sure ETH will be worth more than BTC in a few years. Nobody really knows though.

European Central Bank

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Quote from: elektra on June 09, 2017, 10:58:03 AM

Where is this 21 bitcoin number coming from and why 21?

it makes you one in a million. but in reality it makes you one in far fewer. millions of coins will be lost, hoarded by small numbers of people and there's satoshi's coins too. it may only be possible for one or two hundred thousand people.

as for the op's question, impossible to answer but to be certain of a decent shot and assuming bitcoin is still alive i'd want a minimum of 40-50 but that's not really attainable. the other answer is buy as many as you're comfortable with and sit tight.

Dudeperfect

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Quote from: elektra on June 09, 2017, 10:58:03 AM

Where is this 21 bitcoin number coming from and why 21?

Well, I guess that since the total number of bitcoins will never exceed 21 million, people are preferring to hold at least 21 bitcoins. There is no logic behind it.

I believe that even 1 to 5 bitcoins are enough for someone if he is willing to get good returns in next 15 to 20 years.

elektra

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Where is this 21 bitcoin number coming from and why 21?

YuginKadoya

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It is really hard to predict right now, because bitcoin might fluctuate in a way that we would not know, but in a safe way to predict it would be 30 bitcoin would be a great number but regarding of what you are doing in earning or buying it, I might say is keep on earning or buying bitcoin as much as you can because you might never know what will awaits for us.

Chin Cheng

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Since it is a hypothetical question there is no correct answer since it all depends upon how bitcoin will fair in the next five years,with the movement in price we have now,things are positive and lets see how we can attract more investors into bitcoin.

Topic: Hypothetically.....How many bitcoin do I need to have today? (Read 1023 times)