Topic: I believe theses quotes should now kill BS&T. (Read 7998 times)

Just started a readin' this thread, pausin' to comment. The same song came to my mind, but a better link is warranted: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YZBNfYvIMs

~Bruno~

Thats another valid point ,

if pirate gets run over by a bus tomorrow  ,and hes got around 500k of everyones coins in some encrypted account or  wallet that nobody knows the password except him.........

is there any partners or any failsafe in place for investors to withdraw deposits  ? 

I had around 5k coins deposited with pirates accounts  and i have reduced it to 1k recently because thats all im comfortable losing when things go wrong

If i had more confidence ,i would put the 5000 back in ,even more but too much risk depends on the  too little information being given out 

~2% was based on 0.5% fee over 2 trades, assuming he has the 500k volume limit (which may not have even been the case for much of his "banking" days).

He claims 10% profit per week (on a post somewhere on this forum a few months back)...which means over 7 days, roughly 1.5% per day growth on average. ~1.5% + 0.5% = ~2%. I don't particularly think it makes a big difference even if he paid no fees...1% "confident" profit per day on a massively volatile and sometimes utterly stagnant market is living on the edge of insanity. Firstly you have to be right almost all the time, and secondly you have to be so perfectly right on big moves that any wrongs are minor are easily absorbed. Apple did well with the iPad, but they will certainly produce some crap products in the future, and had a hell of a lot of shit before it too...that's just normal business wins and fails.

In the early days I gave him some coins, but it wasn't because he was claiming arbitrage...at the early stage he said he was earning coins through local business transactions, the specifics of which he wanted to keep anonymous for the sake of his safety, and should anything "happen to him" during transactions the coins would be safe and returned somehow. Over time his ability to accept coin with little need for rejection (which implied either his business grew perfectly with however many coins he had, or the coins weren't really relevant to any real world productivity) made me rethink the situation and I cashed out. I don't regret doing so, even though he still seems to be doing just fine.

Unless pirate is the exchange himself.... He can easily untaint coins, in person exchange for large amounts, mixing services, etc.

https://mtgox.com/fee-schedule

0.25% for 30-day volumes of over 500K is the lowest it goes.

Actually, with any sort of volume on Gox, your fees are much less than that.  So reduce your numbers even further.

I think he's referring to TWO trades - one buy and one sell. Most exchanges are about .5% each. You have to cover a one point spread between your buy and sell.

I don't think the quotes will kill BS&T...only a missing interest payment will, like pretty much every other business/ponzi ever.

If it's a ponzi, it's been masterfully executed from the start.

I personally suspect it started as a legitimate attempt to make some money using other people's money, at a time when it was easily possible; day trading, RL trading, whatever, and I was willing to support it and make some btcs. I was an early investor, and I could feel that optimistic burn of being onto a good thing. After a couple months RL events meant I had to withdraw my funds and deal with other things, I thought long and hard about still leaving btc in a 'savings' account there. There were various things that went through my mind, but the one that stuck was:

"How can somebody so confidently earn ~2% a day in this market legitimately? No one is so godlike that they can produce this amount indefinitely just via trading highs and lows on a daily basis - especially considering the heavy 1% trade fees." I know it's possible, but not predictable nor likely. I realize a lot could have been made through bitcoinica leveraging and market manipulation, but even that has its limits (like it crashing / being broken into constantly).

The alternative reason given, that money is flowing from the outside->in also doesn't really add up. Why would a group continuously pay 10% per week just to keep buying/selling bitcoins from Pirate? Who is so stupid and wasteful as to do or need that? Who is paying pirate 10% per week to borrow off him? Laundering, if that, would mean a million bank/IRS issues. It makes no sense in a large scale...when I first joined, I simply assumed it was something akin to money laundering (hence the anonymity), but pirate has devoutly claimed otherwise, and that wouldn't make sense either in the amounts he deals with (my own estimate is that he owes around 300k btc based on needing $135k in btc to pay interest, steadily increasing "min/max limits" + nominal re-invested interest over time etc etc). The whole PPT thing spreads the responsibility nicely).

I think it's quite possible he has made massive amounts of money via bitcoinica, and is using those funds as his buffer to trading for now, while hoping / acting to push the price back down so he can rebuy more cheaply. This would make this more of an investment bank than a ponzi, I imagine, and the price rise might be concerning, but it may also just be a case of w/e if the cash buffer is there. Again this proves nothing.

Granted it may just be that I, like hundreds of others on these forums, just can't think of how it's done so consistently and legitimately without any real service being offered that anyone here has even used. Instead of making me jealous, however, it would be most sensible to assume the simplest answer to be true. I haven't visited these forums for a few months (due to said RL events), but I'm quite surprised to see the mounting pressure on pirate. He is responding to critics very differently now than he was when I was active previously - definitely more hostile, but also more erratic/irrational. Even Apple is quite open about how it went from being a $5/share company to $650. What's the big deal? If everyone could do it, like Pirate has claimed, how could it be that hundreds of people wracking their brains could not also conceive of it? The more I think of it, the more clearly my intuition speaks.

At the end of the day, it's not a ponzi until it fails to pay what it says it will. Anyone investing today simply has faith that pirate is a better trader than them.

I share the same view, so far I have only one person on ignore although there are several that I'm almost certain I wont care about their post.

It seems that in the last two days I hit quite a few nerves since my ignore count went from below first shade of yellow to the current 12+ which is fine, I do admit I paid little attention to being effective in communicating my positions and may have been a bit too blunt and persistent.

While the ignore counter is kind of annoying -- it's being abused the same way the old simple reputation system was -- its announced usage can be an indicator of people being emotionally compromised. "I will now ignore you, take that!" or something.

I never felt that skimming over pointless posts is harder than using the ignore button, you lose part of the discussion's context with it. My ignore list remains empty, and I fail to see any disadvantage of that.

Yeah I'm devastated..   

 

I'm sure you're crushed, hazek.   

It seems that there is just no reasoning with you. If your mind is that closed, there's nothing I can do here. Welcome to my ignore list. I hope you enjoy your stay.

Great, thank you for answering.

For the record: No, absolutely not.

Just for the record: Are you in any way shape or form involved with pirate or his business?

I've noticed that there are large bets (total of 635 btc) placed on this issue on our site:

Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default before the end of 2012

If the bettors are here, thank you for your trust. We'll do our best to be a fair judge. For further clarification here is what we put on the page as the definition of "default":


Don't hesitate to contact us for questions, or think that the statement is resolved. For people who wonder, all the bets are moved to an off-site cold wallet.

Btw pirate finally realized he can't handle the forums anymore and decided to move to a more controllable environment where can be in absolute control of what PR potential "investors" are exposed to - his very own irc channel: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1010582

My two cents..


I started off with a very small amount of bitcoin and have been steadily growing it through trading. I use almost every exchange relative to their volume with the exception of Gox, and I also mix in some triangle trading. On a good day, when I have lots of computer time, I can pull 1% - IT IS POSSIBLE. Could I do it every day if I had the time? maybe.

That said, I have a hard time believing pirate. If he was trading himself he would just keep those returns for himself. If he has these "large investors" that want to buy large amounts at a premium that are worried about moving the market...well, that just doesn't make any sense on so many levels. Rich people can buy their own BTC - they certainly don't need pirate. C'mon people, use your heads.

Ok, let me make it clearer just for you:


Supposedly, it's his business model:


Now I don't know about you but I don't know of a business that can run by not doing what their business model says that they do. Either pirate was operating as usual when the exchange rate increased and made the profits he paid his "investors" or he didn't run his business and didn't pay his "investors". It can't be that he didn't run his business but was able to pay his "investors". There should either be loses or there should be no profits. We appear to have neither.

Unless you are willing to claim that pirate can predict the future and knew exactly when to jump back into BTC just before the price increase to avoid loses, my argument makes perfect sense.


Because that's not what he says is his business model. He specifically said, explicitly, that he is using other people's money as a hedge against fiat to BTC conversion risk. Why would he then after incurring these type of loses not transfer them to his clients if that is what is his business model?

I cut that part of your post because I didn’t see you making any logical points in it…just some vague speculation that pirate must have lost money because the price of bitcoins rose and because we didn’t hear anything about losses either pirate or his investors are lying? How can you possibly know pirate was in USD at the time when the market moved up? And even if he was, how can you possibly know he doesn’t have sufficient profits saved up from last month to cover it? You can’t know, and that’s why I’ll ask you again:

Some of us also know that it is possible to bet on red 8 times in a row and win every time, while "reinvesting" all the wins.
This does not mean that this strategy has any decent risk/reward expectation.

I also noticed it, again now. We've had the selective derailing before, it has not worked in the past, but they do it again and again and again; just burying the main arguments with repetitions or focusing on the fuzziest part of the topic.

It may or may not be unintentional, but it's annoying. Thanks for keeping it up and consequently pointing out the buried stuff, hazek.

I already did, I can't help you if you cut that part of my post.

No they don’t. Please point out to me where in the above list of facts you see reference to any wrongdoing, scamming, stealing, or any kind of unethical conduct whatsoever. You can’t point to that, because there hasn’t been any.

Yes, you repeated yourself very nicely. However as I already pointed out, you have defamed someone’s reputation and business, on the basis of what exactly? A forum post which allegedly proves you know more about trading then he does? When you accuse someone of scamming, it is a serious allegation where the onus is on you to provide the evidence backing it up. If you cannot do so, you should not be making the statements in the first place. Sure nobody is going to sue you, but it’s ethically and morally bankrupt of you to act this way.


If it’s so easy for you to cooperate with all your friends from the speculation forum, then why haven’t you done so? I’ll tell you why, because there’s a lot of risk in it. The speculation forum is full of sharks, with people often trying to trick others into doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing. If only there was a way to cooperate with other traders without the risk of them screwing you… Oh wait, there is. And pirate already thought of it.

One other HUGE HUGE problem with pirate's story:

Would it not be more accurate to say that it is very likely a ponzi i.e. with probability of that way higher than 50%?

Because there is no any evidence of any value producing economic activity, only evidence of taking deposits and paying "dividends".

It has ALL of properties of ponzi except the default (just yet).

I cannot agree more.

In other words you are perfectly content with people losing their hard earned money if it turns out you did in fact "invest" and defended "investing" in a ponzi scam.

Interesting.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/z-91653 shows that Pirate is holding at least 32353 BTC in a wallet controlled by him and that number is possibly much higher if things like other wallets and offline storage are counted in. If Pirate's business is legit, why in the hell is he holding 32k+ BTC over which he pays 7% weekly?! Shouldn't he be using those BTC for his mysterious business or at least force withdrawals if he can't use that much BTC right now?

Yeah they do. Please explain to me how is he able to "successfully" do what he hints at that he is doing..


.. even after the recent significant BTCUSD exchange rate increase! Why I'm asking you this? Well this is precisely the event he claims he is using other people's money rather than his own as a hedge against losses ergo his "investors" should have lost money since BTCUSD went up about 30% in the last 30 days and even spiked almost 20% in just a span of 4 days.

So either his clients lost money with their "investments" in the last 30 days but they are keeping quiet or lying about it and he is legit, or they didn't in which case it's him who is either lying that he is using their money as a hedge where if he is legit he himself took the loss or he is lying and isn't doing what he hints at that he is doing.

Point is someone is lying, now you tell me who is lying about what.

I can actually conclusively prove arbitrage and daytrading impossible. I can rule out options because they must have negative profitability!

Order book trading and Arbitrage for example: volume is not just too small. Combined with spreads within the week, it keeps him below interest paid, probably rendering everything but private loans lossy trades because of locking up funds, and if not, they have too little fund requirement for making borrowing the money profitable.

Check volume and arbitrage: He's fucked even if he participates in every single trade on Gox, fucked by far! 200k weekly, roughly 2% spread, this locks up enormous resources to get the spiking trades.

Again! This isn't some faint evidence. The guy is lying, he's listing businesses that just can't work profitably with his footprint. We all know he holds at least high five-digits on paper, the market just doesn't cut it for this, and one coin can't do two things at once just like that!

You need outright absurd assumptions like him perfectly predicting everything and being in every trade and it still gets hard! Are you guys calling Pirateat40 a God?

Bitcoin Consultancy is not now, nor have they ever been, involved with GLBSE.

Yep, I have formulated the same thoughts: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/btcst-why-many-people-here-are-massive-scammers-and-suckers-91552

Okay, let's just assume that the business Pirate is running is not a ponzi.
I hope we can all agree that nobody can prove it isn't a ponzi.
I also hope that we can all agree on the fact that it could possibly be a ponzi, because it has a lot of its properties.

So under the assumption that it _isn't_ a ponzi, isn't it still a very bad thing people are defending it? What's to stop people from defending a real ponzi once it comes along, if people are defending Pirate's operation with ponzi-like properties without any real evidence to debunk the ponzi claims? In my opinion this is far worse than Pirate's operation possibly being a ponzi. People are defending a possible Ponzi Scheme, without any evidence to prove that it isn't one!


Disclaimer: I have a trivial amount of BTC invested with Pirate, because I honestly don't know what to believe.

coin_toss: I get now that I can't show it without a trader that sounds trustworthy. But I said that from the start! Get someone who knows what he's talking about.

• Arbitrage has insufficient volume as explained above, in addition to it being clear from his comments he doesn't have the skill.
• Local transactions should cause price fluctuations as explained above, which I don't see. Pirateat should have enough Gox trading experience from arbitraging the dark trades alone to never make the mistake in the OP.
• Local transactions on this volume should leave a footprint somewhere. Where the hell are they, who is borrowing at such unethical rates and who says they're not just an excuse for a default?

I have just posted two of these with little change! Do pretty much copy-pasted arguments I just refuted without changing them! Flooding tactics on my threads will get you blacklisted and put to question after the default.


On the trading money: the Gox order book is not that big, and gathering traders to cooperate on the speculation forum is possible. the manipulation can only be of the visible size in the order book, remember? What did we see, 40k walls? Yea, I don't have that, but together with all the traders I know? Take a guess.

I'm not saying it is especially bad you share a common false belief, but in this case you'll have to drop it. Manipulation is not an infinite money source. It works at times, but only so long, and spreads vanish the longer it does. I actually eat manipulators in my trading (I do volatility dampening at times), so would I see it, I'd be getting the funds in the end.

Sadly, I don't get a super huge amount of manipulation to prey on, and competition is rather stiff.

Allow me to remind you of what pirate says he does with this money: local transactions, market arbitrage, and private loans to network members. Last time I checked ‘market arbitrage’ includes the possibility of buying and selling on exchanges as required. And this is somehow worse than running a ponzi scheme? You have funny ideas about right and wrong Vandroiy.


When did he implicitly confirm a theory that's bullshit from the start? On the contrary, if it turns out he's buying and selling coins on the exchanges, as well as engaging in local transactions, that would be entirely consistent with what he said he’s doing. And whoever said he was doing it without losses? All traders make losses. It’s part of the deal. But unless you are operating hand to mouth, you don't pass on your losses on to your investors unless you absolutely have to. If your profits are high enough, you simply absorb the losses and get on with the job.


You’re putting words into my mouth which I never said. Perhaps you missed the part where i said 'large number of bitcoins.' Do you have access to the (possibly) largest bitcoin wallet of them all? Do you have access to one of the top five wallets? If not, then I do not think it would be easy for you to make 1% a day. Its doable, but certainly not easy. I'm sure you're a competent trader, but you don't have access to the same pot of resources pirate does. Don't feel too bad, you're in the same boat as just about everyone else.

Some of us know those returns are possible. During my best I made 40% per month return for 8 months. Made a killing and haven't had to work a day since then. But the thing that makes absolutely no sense is sharing those returns with strangers. Even with a small amount invested by now if he was running anything legit he would buy back most of the investments and just keeping profits for himself. It has passed the point where the explanation of "hedging risk of volatile btc market" makes any sort of sense. As the interest payouts far exceed what would have been lost by now. When you get these types of returns you keep it private, because it won't last long, and you make a nice life for yourself. You don't payout to strangers.

I can, man, and yea, I can't deny it is pretty damn hilarious. Really, sometimes feels like I'm on the wrong side. I can't even back out now, because of all the slander accusations and bet offers. I mean, lol this is at least the third time you're openly talking about this. It's a farce.

I don't get the "anything sentence" thing though.



coin_toss, imsaguy:

Yes, it might not work in court. But it's true. And your version of it is much much worse, because any real application of it means Pirateat is frequently shorting BTC with customers' money! Going deeper into these "theories" make things worse, not better.

Keep on this "exercise" for me. Last full week volume was low around 250k BTC, with overall price drifting on the order of the 2% in question. This week already saw 200k at no overall price change (using bitcoincharts weekly OHLC, http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg150zigWeeklyztgOzm1g10zm2g25zv). 20k give or take? Hell knows what the market will do, but this isn't deciding it. And in whatever case, Pirateat40 has to buy back these coins, so all he can do is a temporary delay of the price-change!

It's not just about the "exercise" content. He implicitly confirmed a theory on his business that's bullshit from the start, and now he's shown that he probably couldn't do it without losses, let alone 3300% pa! Magical arbitrage? You did not ask a trader. That or you just took the first guy with posts on the speculation forum and half his coins in BS&T.



Read this again. Dude, what. So everyone with lots of BTC is a colossal idiot, and traders especially? You're aware we could just add our funds together, right? Gee, thanks for telling me I'm a fucking idiot at something I've been doing effectively for years, right to my face. I missed out on a factor 6 this year already, one that was relatively simple to get? Are you serious?

You're insulting me far more than psy could with any amount of "jealous son of a bitch" shouts.

If you're asking me if I believe an experienced trader can consistently make 1% a day trading one of the more volatile markets in the world, when he controls perhaps the largest bitcoin wallet of them all, the answer is obviously yes.

As for borrowing money at the rate of 1% a day, clearly you would only do that if you couldn't find access to funds at a cheaper rate. If pirate could get get a cheaper rate I'm sure he would. But he can't. Perhaps you haven't noticed, but borrowing money to put into bitcoin is not exactly considered a 'safe investment' in the eyes of a bank or VC. Why do you think there have been so few bitcoin companies receiving VC funding? Who exactly would he borrow this money from, if not other bitcoiners? Perhaps you think he should be paying bitcoiners a lesser rate? You're right, he probably should be. Fortunately for his lenders, there are enough threads like this one spreading the seeds of doubt that many lenders would not accept a lesser rate. Thus the 1% continues.


Sorry but this is not the way to rebut an argument. Personal attacks and smear campaigns will only get you so far. If you're going to continue with these posts, sooner or later you will have to provide some EVIDENCE supporting your position. Until then, you fail.

As for your statements about ethics. Let me ask you a question. Do you honestly belive it is ethical to attempt to destroy someone's reputation and livelihood based on your 'hunch.' Further, do you honestly believe it is legal to say and do what you have done relying on the evidence you have?

Apart from the pizza-for-bitcoins market which yielded 3741% annually compounded over the following two years (or would have, if jercos had held on to his 10000 BTC).

ok, thank you for your explanation.

but: no. i do not think its a ponzi.
i think he operates a bitcoinica like dark exchange (of course i dont know).

and yes: if i would KNOW that its a ponzi you are right that participating in it is unethically.

the question for me is: is it unethical to invest in something which you dont really now (could be firearms drugs and so on - there are things which i consider worse than ponzis).

i thought very long about it and came to the conclusion that it is ok - because you never know for sure what your invested money is used for.

with your explanation bfl and "mysterios investor who crashed glbse mining market after bfl's announcement" are unethically too -> there are ALWAYS "victims" in any finance market or transaction. one wins and another one loses: thats the hole point of risk management.

i am all for educating finance-n00bs (i see myself as one).
make good explanations: whats a ponzi, howtos about risk management and money management. but thats enough.

This is a very reasonable request. I'll explain my position on this one.

It is very very likely that what we are talking about here is a ponzi scheme. I cannot say for certain, as there is no proof. But probabilities are damning.

Let's assume that you understand that this is likely a ponzi and wish to invest into a known ponzi scheme as a high risk/high reward investment. This is your position, is it not correct?

This means that you hope to profit at expense of victims of this ponzi scheme. At expense of naive people who are not capable to understand risks they take with such "investments" and have not received any professional advise on the matter. Nor they had those risks disclaimed to them by ponzi operators or exchanges involved in this. On each and every step of all of this there are numerous and clear violations of relevant laws.

Do you really think that in the real world thy make early ponzi investors to disgorge ill gotten profits in favor of victims because those ponzi "investments" were in any shape or form ethical?

Anyone claiming that investing in a ponzi while knowing that this is a ponzi or likelty a ponzi is in any shape of form ethical, either has a very strange idea about ethics or just plain malicious.

Ponzi is not a victimless crime. Moreover it is an indisputable fact that MOST ponzi scheme "investors" are victims (eventually).

I hope you are not going to argue that participating in and/or promoting a venture that is either a fraud or very likely a fraud (ponzi is a form of fraud) with intent to profit is Ethical.

I honestly believe that the question is not whether early ponzi investors and more so promoters and apologists like you and all those operators of PPT's and even GLBSE are acting ethically. This one is clear.

The question is more about whether early ponzi investors and more so promoters and apologists like you and all those operators of PPT's and even GLBSE itself, meaning specifcally Nefario and Bitcoin Consultancy Ltd (if they are still involved with GLBSE) are malefactors.

i see bitcoins as a hole as a very risky investment. pirate is a lot more risk.
whats your problem with investing in ultra-risky investments? they tend to give much more reward (if any)


wow.
i do consider me as a very ethical person. please dont insult me (or at least: give me a reasonable explanation why do you think that i am unethical).


now you tell me you know UPCOMING market moving events?
do you front-running? you can tell the future?
of course... if i would have the ability to look in the future i wouldn't invest in pirate...i would make my money otherwise

btw. if you KNOW upcoming market moving events and dont share them: this is something i would call unethical.


yes, maybe thats true.
thats always a possibility with very risky investments. even with btc this is still possible (but i dont hope so)


i do own btc too. and i am not fully invested with pirate.

No!

Anyone with any appreciation for risk/reward of such "investment" will not put a single dime into this. Risk of complete loss of capital that is put into this now shall expect negative ROI on this "investment".

Anyone with any shred of decency or who even only tries to be ethical would not put a single penny into this.

Anyone who knows about upcoming market moving events would not put a single dime into this.

Anyone who puts his money into this now or does not pull his money out of this now (or perhaps within 1-3 week period starting now) will most likely regret this decision.

Anyone who holds any of those PPT bonds and does not sell em rather very soon will regret this decision.

Anyone who wants to shut up people speaking up about this should really disclaim his PPT/Pirate/wtc holdings.

Let's wait and see. Time will tell and this will happen rather sooner than many think it will.

Disclaimer: I own some BTC.

just see it that way:

invest your btc for 14 weeks and it has doubled (dont reinvest your interest).
regardless what happens to pirate now: you'll win at least a little.

Do you really believe in miracle of >3000%  annual returns trading some market?

Do you really believe in miracle of CONSISTENT 1% a day returns?

Do you really believe that, if this even possible, it makes any sense to leverage it by borrowing money to trade with at 3000% APR?

Have you ever traded anything?

How about a modicum of common sense?

Do you suffer from Stockholm Syndrome or just want more suckers to be sucked into this for personal gain or is it something else?

Go troll somewhere else, clown

Lets review the facts:
-pirate borrows large quantities of money from his investors
-pirate claims to use this money for 'local transactions, market arbitrage, and private loans to network members.'
-pirate does not reveal exactly how he makes money, and in return pays a high interest rate
-pirate has done this successfully for over 8 months

To the people in the anti-pirate camp, these facts somehow prove pirate is running a ponzi. They say that it is simply not possible to earn 1% a day on a large investment. The truth is, its not possible for THEM to earn 1% a day on a large investment. To someone who knows what they're doing, and has a large number of bitcoins under their control, it would be relatively simple to make 1% a day - even if all you did was trade on Mt.Gox. This isn't the NYSE, where you have countless wealthy individuals and institutional players moving into and out of stocks, and where duties of disclosure apply. This is the wild west of bitcoin, where most 'traders' are kids with a video card and where the price can fluctuate more in a day than a conventional market would in a year. And people are honestly surprised at 1% a day?

Please don't put me in the same "anything sentence" as you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cP-c2Aq47Cs

If you could only see your comments through my eyes.  Sadly, you picked the wrong battle to fight and only time will show how wrong you were.  Hey, but time heals everything so it's all good.

The other worst thing is having 50 million pirate related threads cluttering up the board. Its almost spam.

Well, unlike Pirateat40 about me I am not saying he is stupid. I said he's an incompetent trader, but that's a different thing. I've pretty much shown it, and it's a really useful part of the argument in this case.

Pirateat40 is pretty good at what he does, and certainly not stupid. Look how he acts like he doesn't care at all, and tries to put on a facade of me having said nothing of meaning.

Leaving money with him after reading this thread, though... and all the others that point out massive problems... yeah. Sorry, that's just stupid. I could just not care, but I'm in too deep now. My reputation is unusable until this ends because I'm accused of massive slander.

+1^∞

If the shoe fits...

All these people harping on about pirate are the worst thing about the whole debacle.    Perhaps they're right, perhaps not,  but the words these people use and the sheer gall of the "I'm smart and you're stupid" attitude they all have is appalling.

I don't gamble. I just wish that there were proof (from both sides, but meh); indeed such proof as would stand in a courtroom, not speculation. I don't see him advertising at all, or drawing anyone in, or what have you. This concern perhaps extends to his lenders that are making him more accessible to others, but really that is just additional risk for someone to consider (pirate risk + lender risk).

I recall Deepbit when it was becoming large and perceived as a threat. There was all kinds of fuss and FUD, and he had a gentlemen's agreement to cease advertising. A year or so later, he is still going strong, still without any advertising, and seemingly without fail. I know this is no analog to Pirate's operation, but I'd like to think that it could be resolved similarly: just let it run and see what happens.

I'm sure you wish to do your duty to prevent scams, but really, I think that your bullheaded forging ahead is causing some to invest purely out of spite for your (and others') further discomfit. I think it needs to be laid to rest and put to bed, and when it fails you can say "I told you so".

Maybe Pirate can share with Theymos exactly what he does if Theymos agrees to an NDA.

Then he can say whether its illegal or shady and decide if the forum and by extension Mt Gox could be held to blame.

@Vandroiy

If you don't understand the very simple challenge I gave you and what 2% means to a transaction I do, there is simply no hope that you will every understand anything I say.

I truly gave you more "smarts" credit than you deserved.

rjk, I firmly believe that this guy is a scammer! Are you seriously saying that I should shut up and let him steal everyone's money?

Also, betting with someone about when he himself will choose to default? Bad idea in general, though it can work on Ponzis with reasonable boundary conditions.

I can do four-digit BTC, against you, right here. We need to get some mod we both respect to hold the funds, and that's that. Betting on this does not scare me at all, I'm not just trolling for the heck of it. On the contrary, this is exactly what I want.

Give me financial instruments to go against these types of operations, and I will crush them with precision every time and make a killing off it. The only thing is that time-scales must be conservative now because it is public, and thus Pirateat40 can just play as some other account.

Well I was trying to avoid betsofbitcoin, because I was thinking in sums of perhaps 5k BTC and a similar amount of USD as some kind of hedge or something, to be paid to pirate himself (not counter-gamblers) in case of continued solvency.

But coming to think of it, I really don't care about that, I was just hoping there would be a bit of sting in it in case of continued solvency and operation (not that I expect either). However, I would be satisfied by just a general toning down of your posts, and a reduction of the bile and vitrol content of them as well.

The same goes for others, as well!

What, look at the odds of that thing!

jk, that was me just now. I don't know whether I want to trust the site with more than 250 BTC, it's some anonymous whatever. But odds are quite green for now.

In fact, my total bets on the topic are already four-digit BTC. I'm fucking certain, and I mean it.

"The assertion is that Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default on payments on or before December 31. 2012. "

There is a viable option to put your money where you mouth is:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433

It's pretty simple... "BS&T will be known as a scam until *some time limit*."

Most people only offer ridiculously short time-limits. Put one well into next year, and you're far beyond any expected Ponzi run-time. I can't yet tell how much I can put up exactly, but I sure as hell want to put up some money to this!

(What's the point with the USD hedge, this is the Bitcoin forum. Let's just bet in Bitcoins, it's not like they go bad like fiat.)

This reminds me, the odds on betsofbitco.in were pro-Pirate. Brb, changing that.

The main problem I guess is that we don't know how long Pirate plans to continue operation, so it makes it a bit more complicated. Sorry I may have posted in haste when I put that out there, but if someone wants to manage it, please weigh in here. I don't want to nominate a third party because I don't want to saddle them with some excess responsibility.

However, I suggest that the bond be split and denominated in USD and BTC, and be held somehow in cold storage for some period of time. There are some bets on Betsofbitco.in, but I'm not sure if they would serve the purpose well enough. I'll be back after some eats to see what everyone has thought up.

I agree, everyone needs to calm down. Rolo is another thread calling people mouth breathers.

I still don't think it's libel, since we know 0 about what he does. I don't think we need infinity+1 threads on this stupid topic either.

You haven't been reading all the ad hominim words that have been spewed against him and others recently, it seems.

To be clear, I do not currently use or support Pirate's operations in any way shape or form, but the shit I have been seeing recently is painful to watch, and completely unnecessary.

Of course I'll put up! This is a bet, one which I will win. We need a trusted third party, of course, in the case I am a scammer.

I'm totally aware of what you are offering and I mean exactly that by heaven, because this is a bet with the best odds ever.

LOL rjk, wow.

It's not libel or defamation if your business model makes zero sense. Pirate never clarifies anything. It comes with the territory of not releasing any information about his operations.

I'm not asking you to take anyone's money, I am asking that you put up YOUR OWN money.

This is heaven. I love you. Whose money can I take? How much BTC pay-back security do I have to sign with?

This is gonna be awesome. You're paying me for white-knighting.

The problem is, IF you turn out to be wrong, there is no possible way that any crow-eating of any kind will sort out the wrongs that you have said, as well as the libel and defamation that you have been engaging in for the past while.

I demand that you put up a bond for your words, that will be lost in default in favor of Pirate et al IF you turn out to be wrong.
If you are right, you can keep the bond.

Does anyone else wish to weigh in on the terms and conditions of this bond?

Trading with investor funds with >3000% annualised ROI. You must be kidding me. This is simply impossible.

If HE traded with investor funds, he won't get them back for you. If he really was so stupid as to do that, he is forced to wish for luck in the Bitcoin price.

But Pirateat40 is not stupid. He just sucks at a trader, because he used all his training for running Ponzi schemes. For all I can tell, he is perfectly educated on that, and follows every single rule of running a professional Ponzi.

Is he trading with investor funds or running or ponzi scheme?  They are two different things yes?  Are you saying he is doing both?

I have been joining this forum for two things: enthusiasm for Bitcoin and currency trading. For most of the time Bitcoin existed, it has an insanely volatile market which kept me tied on it a lot.

You all know I have been accusing Pirateat40 of running a Ponzi scheme for some time now. The reasons for that are manyfold, and discussed in other threads, but there's also the fact that my indicators never showed any footprints of him doing anything besides maybe a rare sell on Gox. No volume bloat to sell for millions, no indicators for extra demand, just silence. But this is not much of an argument for the average forum user.

There have been numerous theories on what Pirateat40 does. He had already encouraged posts that involve currency trading, namely dark pool sales to big investors. He had been leading people on to use this to fabricate explanations how his business might work, but never gave anything explicit before.

I'd like to emphasize here that even aside the trading techniques, the theories all make no sense. Arbitrage to what market? Volume is just insufficient. Arbitrage to dark pools? He would move the price when buying back, I don't see that. Plus he would be effectively shorting Bitcoin on every trade, putting his customers' funds at a heavy risk.

He was always so smart to not put too much emphasis on any theory. Until today.



Now, for those of you not trading currencies, I will have a very hard time explaining just how stupid this is. Some points are:

• Even with his insanely close 2% limit, I can fulfill the feat immediately, using average price for a 135k USD buy on the order book of Mt. Gox! If the person would care for peak price (why care?) then it takes a moment longer, boo-hoo. The exercise is trivial, everyone can do it -- unless the order book is too shallow, but then Pirateat will have the identical problem buying back.
• Why care about a short-term relative movement? His investors are supposedly moving very large sums, the whole type of problem is irrelevant to these people since their large movements will affect mid-term price anyway. Pirateat40 himself should notice that when buying back.
• 2% per trade? This constraint is tiny against the weekly returns to investors. Remember that these percentages do not compare to weekly returns, it's the percentage for an individual trade. His volume is roughly frequency of trades times something on the order of Pirateat40's deposits. The frequency required to require such tight limits would mean that Pirateat40 sells so many Bitcoins, the price would have to be blown into the heavens by him buying back.
• His time limits are super long! Anyone trading BTCUSD should know that most of the volume only changes a small fraction of the order book, as it refills to dampen movements. This has been especially strong in the last months. Three days is plenty, especially after I've shown it can be done in roughly a second using the order book at the time.

What does this mean?

• Pirateat40 pretty much implied he is trading BTCUSD with his "investors'" money in large volumes.
• He has not the faintest clue what he is talking about. There is no way he can safely operate such sums. He didn't even correct his mistake, even after it was pointed out twice!
• This is not a mistake due to sloppiness. Traders must be hardcore-trained to double-check their estimates, or else they do way too many mistakes. Any educated trader should be able to confirm that this guy is incompetent.

Now go and talk to a BTCUSD trader of your choice, so he can confirm without second thoughts that Pirateat40 is a scammer and Ponzi scheme operator, and this is the mistake that ends it.

Basically, I'm asking the mods to find a competent BTCUSD trader, do some talk of the kind and then remove Pirateat40, all his pass-throughs, and all the other crap he has been shitting onto the Bitcointalk.org forums. If that is not possible, I expect that in due time people will use their heads, the bonds will crash and the Ponzi end. Either way, I really can't think of any way to talk or flame out of this one.

Edit: I expect flame- and derailing-attacks on this, so I may have to edit points into this post.

We can now measure the IQ of the Bitcoin forum with the speed at which the bonds crash.