I don't get the price movement (or lack thereof)....

wobber

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Quote from: NUFCrichard on January 17, 2014, 07:30:33 AM

I wonder what exactly it is that gives Bitcoin it's value (other than what people are willing to pay, obviously).
All I can come up with is scarcity. How often is is used seems to be a long way from being the limiting factor. Lets say that Overstock and all other recently announced BTC accepting companies take 1000 BTC per month revenue, no where near the amount of BTC that are actively traded. The people using BTC in transactions will just go and rebuy them with Fiat. The companies won't be stockpiling them, they will be exchanging for fiat straight away. So it doesn't make much difference if the price is $100 or $10000, Bitcoin can be used just as easily either way.

It becomes a limiting factor when the turnover of Bitcoins is higher than the value of the bitcoins being actively traded. Then the price would have to rise. Then I would say that the price is based on fundamentals, whereas now it is based on speculation. Gold based on fundamentals should be a few bucks an ounce, so I'm not predicting a crash, just saying that good news won't necessarily increase the value of bitcoin (in my opinion).

His words, condensed: bitcoin is very very over-speculated

NUFCrichard

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I wonder what exactly it is that gives Bitcoin it's value (other than what people are willing to pay, obviously).
All I can come up with is scarcity. How often is is used seems to be a long way from being the limiting factor. Lets say that Overstock and all other recently announced BTC accepting companies take 1000 BTC per month revenue, no where near the amount of BTC that are actively traded. The people using BTC in transactions will just go and rebuy them with Fiat. The companies won't be stockpiling them, they will be exchanging for fiat straight away. So it doesn't make much difference if the price is $100 or $10000, Bitcoin can be used just as easily either way.

It becomes a limiting factor when the turnover of Bitcoins is higher than the value of the bitcoins being actively traded. Then the price would have to rise. Then I would say that the price is based on fundamentals, whereas now it is based on speculation. Gold based on fundamentals should be a few bucks an ounce, so I'm not predicting a crash, just saying that good news won't necessarily increase the value of bitcoin (in my opinion).

Richard Branson

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Screw It, Let's Do It

Quote from: EvilPanda on January 17, 2014, 07:20:17 AM

If you watch the graphs you can notice that some people are selling big hoping to buy more in the next 2 weeks. This moves the price down a little but not much since the majority holds. It's still a good thing because those selling don't want to move their fiat out of the market (due to all the good news) and will invest it in the comming weeks.

Yeah.. all in china want to keep their money @ huobi, because they won't be able to get it out after jan 31... love that logic.
Chinese won't buy back in. They try to get out.

wobber

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Quote from: EvilPanda on January 17, 2014, 07:20:17 AM

If you watch the graphs you can notice that some people are selling big hoping to buy more in the next 2 weeks. This moves the price down a little but not much since the majority holds. It's still a good thing because those selling don't want to move their fiat out of the market (due to all the good news) and will invest it in the comming weeks.

Holding is double-edged sword. It can be good, creating scarcity BUT the rest of the still traders decide the path, up or down. And then, some of the holders (even if it's just 5%) will rush to sell as price goes down.

It's the same like holding cash. I'm a cash holder now.

EvilPanda

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Small Red and Bad

If you watch the graphs you can notice that some people are selling big hoping to buy more in the next 2 weeks. This moves the price down a little but not much since the majority holds. It's still a good thing because those selling don't want to move their fiat out of the market (due to all the good news) and will invest it in the comming weeks.

Tzupy

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Compared with the 1093$ (Gox price) peak on the 6th January, the bid side is lower by about 10% and the ask side is higher by about 65%.
Long term MACD is dropping steadily, 12h looks like it will soon get into negative. On Google trends, from the peak of 100 on the
28th November 2013, it's now steady around 27, so my guess is that good news only delay the inevitable.

T.Stuart

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One Token to Move Anything Anywhere

Quote from: Richard Branson on January 17, 2014, 06:43:07 AM

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 17, 2014, 06:39:53 AM

A lot of people are waiting another week to see what will happen with China. My prediction: the market won't move but then start creeping up when people realize the Chinese New Year horror story has no substance.

Only people with no fiat left talk like this Wink

You bought in too high and can't buy more.

But the price will drop at least 30% till end of february. It will quickly recover, but it will be one of the best buying opportunities till Q3 2014.

Ha ha Branson! You again! Care to enlighten us with the arguments behind your thinking?

Richard Branson

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Screw It, Let's Do It

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 17, 2014, 06:39:53 AM

A lot of people are waiting another week to see what will happen with China. My prediction: the market won't move but then start creeping up when people realize the Chinese New Year horror story has no substance.

Only people with no fiat left talk like this Wink

You bought in too high and can't buy more.

But the price will drop at least 30% till end of february. It will quickly recover, but it will be one of the best buying opportunities till Q3 2014.

T.Stuart

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One Token to Move Anything Anywhere

A lot of people are waiting another week to see what will happen with China. My prediction: the market won't move but then start creeping up when people realize the Chinese New Year horror story has no substance.

favelle75

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Quote from: byronbb on January 16, 2014, 09:57:18 PM

I posted a while back that the price may have already risen to its speculative maximum. Ie the price already had all this "good news" priced into it in anticipation. Now we must work through a period of proving that assumption.

Yep, there is that. Good news ALREADY factored into the price....so it would take exceptional good/bad news to move the price either way. Hmmm......

byronbb

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HODL OR DIE

I posted a while back that the price may have already risen to its speculative maximum. Ie the price already had all this "good news" priced into it in anticipation. Now we must work through a period of proving that assumption.

favelle75

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Quote from: notme on January 16, 2014, 08:27:19 PM

Quote from: favelle75 on January 16, 2014, 08:23:22 PM

All this good news recently (Sacramento Kings, ATM's in Toronto, Overstock, Zynga, etc etc), and no upwards price movement. What are the reasons? No new money coming in? Equally as powerful bad news, thus neutralizing the good? I just don't understand...before, one piece of news like those above and the price would be sent....for lack of a better word.....to the moon.

Thoughts?

The market wants to work out some bearishness due to price action over the past months. When sentiment is like this, good news won't do anything but provide support. Good news only fuels rallies when the bears have had their fill.

Never trade on news without also guaging market sentiment.

So without this news, would we be vastly lower in price, even in the absence of more bad news?

notme

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Quote from: favelle75 on January 16, 2014, 08:23:22 PM

All this good news recently (Sacramento Kings, ATM's in Toronto, Overstock, Zynga, etc etc), and no upwards price movement. What are the reasons? No new money coming in? Equally as powerful bad news, thus neutralizing the good? I just don't understand...before, one piece of news like those above and the price would be sent....for lack of a better word.....to the moon.

Thoughts?

The market wants to work out some bearishness due to price action over the past months. When sentiment is like this, good news won't do anything but provide support. Good news only fuels rallies when the bears have had their fill.

Never trade on news without also guaging market sentiment.

favelle75

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All this good news recently (Sacramento Kings, ATM's in Toronto, Overstock, Zynga, etc etc), and no upwards price movement. What are the reasons? No new money coming in? Equally as powerful bad news, thus neutralizing the good? I just don't understand...before, one piece of news like those above and the price would be sent....for lack of a better word.....to the moon.

Thoughts?

Topic: I don't get the price movement (or lack thereof).... (Read 1082 times)