all I can say, average people can't predict the crypto market future because we all tend to understand that FUDs and fake news were the main reason why this crypto market was on crisis since early of this year.
And good to know that we had bumped on the rock-bottom and this month is the investors' and holders' most awaited moment that we are earning higher returns especially for those who managed to buy in time of the crisis.
That's a good point from you but I don't it's applicable for all the altcoins out there because some of them aren't dependent on Bitcoin and Ethereum price value range due to their crypto projects and products.
Topic: I FOUND A VERY INTERESTING FORMULA TO PREDICT ALTCOIN PRICES!!!! (Read 94 times)
Hi folks,
For a while I had the impression that BTC is the main driver that causes altcoin growth by seeing the prices on coinmarketcap. BTC goes up, alts go down. However, in Telegram, lots of people claim their altcoin is really different (lol) and that news/fud really affects the price development of an altcoin. So I thought: why don't I run a simple statistical test, to see if this relationship can be proven statistically.
What did I do: a simple correlation and regression analysis to test the relationship between several altcoins (Litecoin, Tron and Ncash) and BTC. I used coinmarketcap prices.
Conclusion: bitcoin price movement predicts in roughly 83% of all cases the prices of these altcoins. For litecoin it was the highest (94%). BTC predicts TRX prices in 72% of the cases. With Ncash, it's 82%.
Limitation of the data: I took the recent 30 days as a sample.
So these findings suggest that all coin related fud/news events do not predict the price of these altcoins a lot...the best indicator is the price of Bitcoin.
It might appear that for these coins, some specific fud/news affects the price, but the analysis suggests that this is actually not the case (if you take 30 days into consideration at least).
I'll do the analysis again with a longer time frame to see if the predictive value of btc will become higher/lower.
Let me know your thoughts
For a while I had the impression that BTC is the main driver that causes altcoin growth by seeing the prices on coinmarketcap. BTC goes up, alts go down. However, in Telegram, lots of people claim their altcoin is really different (lol) and that news/fud really affects the price development of an altcoin. So I thought: why don't I run a simple statistical test, to see if this relationship can be proven statistically.
What did I do: a simple correlation and regression analysis to test the relationship between several altcoins (Litecoin, Tron and Ncash) and BTC. I used coinmarketcap prices.
Conclusion: bitcoin price movement predicts in roughly 83% of all cases the prices of these altcoins. For litecoin it was the highest (94%). BTC predicts TRX prices in 72% of the cases. With Ncash, it's 82%.
Limitation of the data: I took the recent 30 days as a sample.
So these findings suggest that all coin related fud/news events do not predict the price of these altcoins a lot...the best indicator is the price of Bitcoin.
It might appear that for these coins, some specific fud/news affects the price, but the analysis suggests that this is actually not the case (if you take 30 days into consideration at least).
I'll do the analysis again with a longer time frame to see if the predictive value of btc will become higher/lower.
Let me know your thoughts
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