I need help on posts statistics for bitcoin.org forum after the BTC Crash!

Kemarit

legendary

Activity: 3080

Merit: 1353

Quote from: manfredmann on November 27, 2018, 09:58:36 AM

It seems that the forum is quite and only few are now active due to market price dip. Well, I am just thinking about it because people are selling already their bitcoin holdings instead of holding it. Many had speculated the BTC will have a good market price bull run but it seems like it will never happen for the year 2018 and investors with Bitcointalk.org account are apparently leaving for the mean time. What do you think? Does bitcointalk posts number has decreased due to bad market condition and investors leaving for the mean time?

Well there was already a study about it in Sentiment analyst predicts Bitcoin price using Bitcointalk forum posts. I can't find the discussion thread though, it might be buried somewhere else. Grin

. There are a lot of traders who got burned up to May, a theory that I've been holding which coincidentally tally with @DdmrDdmr data presented above. So yes, but there are also other factors like the 1 merit requirement and members actively reporting spam post and ICO's bounties no longer profitable as it used to be.

DdmrDdmr

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 10802

There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain

It's a combination of factors: market and merit requirements, although how much each ponders is difficult to say.
The following data is what I can retrieve in terms of aggregate overall posts on certain dates (I tried to get them at one month intervals):

Code:

Reading nPosts DiffPrev nDays AvgPosts/day
27/11/2018 48.230.858 1.080.277 35 30.865
23/10/2018 47.150.581 944.278 26 36.318
27/09/2018 46.206.303 1.517.366 32 47.418
26/08/2018 44.688.937 1.845.193 31 59.522
26/07/2018 42.843.744 2.245.888 34 66.056
22/06/2018 40.597.856 2.190.432 28 78.230
25/05/2018 38.407.424 3.016.289 31 97.300
24/04/2018 35.391.135 2.354.827 31 75.962
24/03/2018 33.036.308 2.185.262 29 75.354
23/02/2018 30.851.046 2.002.593 29 69.055
25/01/2018 28.848.453 1.864.380 29 64.289
27/12/2017 26.984.073

What we can see is that the average per day (recent averages, comparing one reading to that of the previous month) increases until end of May, and then starts declining with September and October in the lead if we turn the drops into percentages (drops in number of posts since May are in the 10% to 23% area, depending on the month).

Lakai01

legendary

Activity: 2296

Merit: 2721

Besides the "1 Merit to reach Jr. Member rank" requirement, which made account farming bots useless, I think the reason for declining posts is due to the fact that participating in bounties has become unappealing. The payouts in tokens from signature bounties are often not worth the effort anymore. Investing a lot of time to reach the weekly posting count does not stand in relation to getting tokens worth a few bucks.

moha sasa

jr. member

Activity: 35

Merit: 2

Quote from: manfredmann on November 27, 2018, 09:58:36 AM

It seems that the forum is quite and only few are now active due to market price dip. Well, I am just thinking about it because people are selling already their bitcoin holdings instead of holding it. Many had speculated the BTC will have a good market price bull run but it seems like it will never happen for the year 2018 and investors with Bitcointalk.org account are apparently leaving for the mean time. What do you think? Does bitcointalk posts number has decreased due to bad market condition and investors leaving for the mean time?

- I think because of the price and we didn't bottom yet, wait for $2500 btc

hugeblack

legendary

Activity: 2688

Merit: 3983

We have to differentiate between posts and SPAM. There was a lot of spam in this forum because of the bounty campaigns.
If you attribute the reason to the recent drop, this decline has not been for a long time. "The price was about $ 6,000 two weeks ago," and the number of BTC-pay campaigns is small compared to those with tokens payment campaigns.
These campaigns are ready to push more of its shits tokens.

The merit system has led to the decline of creating a lot of fake accounts "1 person 1000 account" for the purpose of selling or participating in more campaigns.

Kopyleft

member

Activity: 168

Merit: 15

Future of Security Tokens

I don't know any process to check daily posts made across all boards, except it's counted manually.
Bitcointalk Statistics provides an average number of daily posts, but it dates back about a year, so not to useful for accurate numbers.

Crash in the market does reduce enthusiasm, but it also presents topics for discussions. I doubt there would be much of a difference.

mk4

legendary

Activity: 2870

Merit: 3873

Paldo.io 🤖

Quote from: manfredmann on November 27, 2018, 09:58:36 AM

What do you think? Does bitcointalk posts number has decreased due to bad market condition and investors leaving for the mean time?

That could probably one reason. The campaigns that are paying out in crap coins now has coins that has significantly lower prices due to the market crash, hence most campaigns might not be worth it right now for people hence the decrease in activity(assuming that activity here in bitcointalk actually decreased since the crash like you said).

The bigger factor though, in my opinion, is the not-so-recent 1 merit requirement for Jr members, and also the recent endless bans on people who committed plagiarism. The forums was far more active before that new rule. The forums are definitely a lot better though; activity doesn't necessarily mean better. I'd prefer low activity but high quality rather than the opposite.

By the way, I think this topic is more fitting on the Meta subforum[1]. It'd probably be better if you moved the topic to that subforum.

[1] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=24.0

manfredmann

member

Activity: 518

Merit: 21

It seems that the forum is quite and only few are now active due to market price dip. Well, I am just thinking about it because people are selling already their bitcoin holdings instead of holding it. Many had speculated the BTC will have a good market price bull run but it seems like it will never happen for the year 2018 and investors with Bitcointalk.org account are apparently leaving for the mean time. What do you think? Does bitcointalk posts number has decreased due to bad market condition and investors leaving for the mean time?

Topic: I need help on posts statistics for bitcoin.org forum after the BTC Crash! (Read 176 times)