I predict the bottom to be $20 (price right now $72)

Rampion

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Quote from: mr_random on April 16, 2013, 02:22:44 PM

In the past we went from $30 to $2, that is a factor of fifteen decrease. It was sparked by a hack at mtgox, but even before that the conditions were ripe for a bubble pop.

The 2011 bubble burst more than a week before MtGox was hacked.

See: http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-06-01zeg2011-06-30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Where do you guys get your facts? At least take your time to check them.

And BTW, blaming this years pop on MtGox is similarly laughable. Bubbles pop, full stop.

Odalv

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The bottom is ZERO ($0,000000000) otherwise $100,000

Wuji

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Quote from: mr_random on April 16, 2013, 02:22:44 PM

Again sparked by trouble at mtgox, but...

Mt. Gox didn't shutdown until after Bitcoin dropped from $266-$105 and then bounced up a bit and started to drop again. They had lag issues and were being DDOS'd before we got to $266. The reason Bitcoin went down this time was because it rose too fast (aka a bubble). The bubble was rising slow from Jan - Mar 17th. Mar 17th Cyprus news broke and Bitcoin was at $50 this started a mad rush into buying Bitcoin and press coverage. The last two days of the bubble Bitcoin rose by an insane amount and the sellers cashing out finally out numbered the buyers trying to get in. This caused panic and a massive sell off which caused MtGox problems. They didn't shutdown till the next day when it was going near $100 again.

I thought MtGox issues might drive it down to $20 or less but was pretty surprised to see it holding around $100 for days and still at $60-$70. I think this speaks a lot for how many bulls there are on Bitcoin.

Dr3AM$cAp3

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Quote from: mr_random on April 16, 2013, 02:39:38 PM

Quote from: Brushan on April 16, 2013, 02:27:40 PM

So everytime a bubble pops it goes exactly the same way as the bubble before? What is this physical law called?

No of course not. But we're in a crash right now and it's logical to compare it to the other major crash.

We are not out of the woods yet. Third correction coming according to my math.

Been trying to study the first bubble lately but having trouble since google will only give me results on this latest pop.
However, I don't think the past is an accurate indicator of the future as far as BTC goes, as conditions are not exactly the same. Never hurts to look at everything, though!
The live Gox data platform looks bearish again.

uMMcQxCWELNzkt

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How much would a sub $50 drop in BTC's value damage Bitcoin in the long term? Let's forget for a moment the logistics of a servere drop relative to previous history, how would an evolving negative reputation factor into the equation? Every loss of user confidence could amount to more dramatic shifts than previous history would suggest, am I correct? A good example of what I am getting at is a boxing match, a boxer can eat the jabs and he can get an idea of the opponents strength, however eventually the effects start to take more of a tole and the boxer would have to factor in the new conditions too.

I would not mind the price to dropping down to that range personally, I would definitely also be unloading my FIAT account lol.

cataurius

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Right now the price seems to predictably bounce between 60 and 80 dollars, but Bitstamp is already getting ddos'ed again so 20 does not seem that impossible.

fitty

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Quote from: mr_random on April 16, 2013, 02:22:44 PM

In the past we went from $30 to $2, that is a factor of fifteen decrease. It was sparked by a hack at mtgox, but even before that the conditions were ripe for a bubble pop.

And here we are this week, down to $72 from $270. Again sparked by trouble at mtgox, but even before that the sheer speed of the increase in price and general mass hysteria indicated a bubble pop was coming.

History repeats itself.

$270/15 = $18. But this isn't an exact science so I will settle for a round $20.

Past performance is no an indication of future results.

It's impressive you've broken the entire bitcoin market just by dividing by 15 and rounding up to the nearest 20, but my dog thinks you're way off and he's predicting bitcoins will bottom out at 5 milk bones. I'm not sure who is right, but his estimate might be tastier, at least to him.

superduh

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time frame. and how much will you bet to escrow

lucif

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Clown prophet

I afraid if price reach $18, very important bullish fundamental levels will be broken.

mr_random

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Quote from: Brushan on April 16, 2013, 02:27:40 PM

So everytime a bubble pops it goes exactly the same way as the bubble before? What is this physical law called?

No of course not. But we're in a crash right now and it's logical to compare it to the other major crash.

We are not out of the woods yet. Third correction coming according to my math.

zeroday

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If history repeats, next year we will have 1BTC=$5000.
I'll gladly buy all your bitcoins for $20,$30,$40,$50

Brushan

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So everytime a bubble pops it goes exactly the same way as the bubble before? What is this physical law called?

mr_random

legendary

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Merit: 1001

In the past we went from $30 to $2, that is a factor of fifteen decrease. It was sparked by a hack at mtgox, but even before that the conditions were ripe for a bubble pop.

And here we are this week, down to $72 from $270. Again sparked by trouble at mtgox, but even before that the sheer speed of the increase in price and general mass hysteria indicated a bubble pop was coming.

History repeats itself.

$270/15 = $18. But this isn't an exact science so I will settle for a round $20.

Topic: I predict the bottom to be $20 (price right now $72) (Read 1600 times)