I see one of three possibilities for the next few days

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: blackreplica on April 11, 2013, 08:57:38 AM

We have already sufficiently approached our (c) support. If you short sold recently, I'm thinking now would be a good time to buy back in. I experienced enormous lag with my orders so I don't think cutting it this close is a good idea or you may miss it.

Tonight will be interesting. If we hold above $100 I think we can weather this storm. Between $80-100 and there is still uncertainty. Below $80 and the downward spiral will probably continue to possibly $30, our final substantive support

$30 would be very reasonable to finally get rid of this insane speculative bubble. Luckily enough some wall-street sharks would have burn themselves and go back trading their usual shit.

I really think we need some sanity and a sustainable growth trend backed up by the spread of a variety of bitcoin related services, otherwise Bitcoin will become the favorite toy of speculators looking to just cash out fiat profits in the short term.

blackreplica

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

We have already sufficiently approached our (c) support. If you short sold recently, I'm thinking now would be a good time to buy back in. I experienced enormous lag with my orders so I don't think cutting it this close is a good idea or you may miss it.

Tonight will be interesting. If we hold above $100 I think we can weather this storm. Between $80-100 and there is still uncertainty. Below $80 and the downward spiral will probably continue to possibly $30, our final substantive support

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Your trend lines make no sense. You need to use smaller candle stick time frames so we can see what you are drawing.

Drawing lines over a chart with no clear picture of which points you are connecting only confuses the reader.

Zangelbert Bingledack

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Frost on April 11, 2013, 05:49:53 AM

It will be d)... but you forgot that to mark in the image...

Price will drop to 20$ - 40$.

That's expected (although maybe not that deep) by the basic fact that markets tend to temporarily overcorrect. (C) will not be broken as the support trend.

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: Frost on April 11, 2013, 05:49:53 AM

It will be d)... but you forgot that to mark in the image...

Price will drop to 20$ - 40$.

That would be cool. Excellent buying opportunity. And back again to a reasonable and sustainable growth trend.

Frost

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 508

It will be d)... but you forgot that to mark in the image...

Price will drop to 20$ - 40$.

Zangelbert Bingledack

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

Quote from: blackreplica on April 11, 2013, 04:37:47 AM

Further update: 180 support broken, which means 100 is the next one. My guess is rangebound trading from between 100-180 at least for the next few days until we establish a new trendline

I'd place a somewhat higher probability on (c) just because of the sentiment here and on reddit still feeling some froth.

(c) is still awesome. (c) still means $10,000/BTC from Santoshi this Christmas. Grin

Note: If the above image looks at all bearish to anyone, please speak up. That will show how much froth is still in here.

blackreplica

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

original post edited for bad math

essem

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Quote from: blackreplica on April 11, 2013, 02:48:18 AM

To clarify: 220 anytime soon is highly unlikely. I'd say at best a 20% probability

180 and up on a more conservative (b) growth rate, I'd say about 50-60%

A drop to rangebound trading below 180 with support at 80 in the near term, i'd assign a probability of 30-40%

I'm sorry. I don't have easy answers.

At least you gave it 110%

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: proudhon on April 11, 2013, 04:41:41 AM

Quote from: blackreplica on April 11, 2013, 04:37:47 AM

Further update: 180 support broken, which means 100 is the next one. My guess is rangebound trading from between 100-180 at least for the next few days until we establish a new trendline

I remember this game in 2011.

"No way it's going back under $20"

"Ok, no, not going under $13"

"Ok, it might bounce of $10, then continue upward to new highs"

"If the price breaks through $8, then we should see incredibly strong support at $5"

"No, okay, hmmm, $3..."

And the price went just a hair under $2.

And the modest believer who invested 10K dollars at $2 made +$1.000.000 in just one year and a half.

Yeah, this is definitely a bear market, no doubts about it.

Frost

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 508

Quote from: awakening on April 11, 2013, 04:43:04 AM

Quote from: proudhon on April 11, 2013, 04:41:41 AM

Quote from: blackreplica on April 11, 2013, 04:37:47 AM

Further update: 180 support broken, which means 100 is the next one. My guess is rangebound trading from between 100-180 at least for the next few days until we establish a new trendline

I remember this game in 2011.

"No way it's going back under $20"

"Ok, no, not going under $13"

"Ok, it might bounce of $10, then continue upward to new highs"

"If the price breaks through $8, then we should see incredibly strong support at $5"

"No, okay, hmmm, $3..."

And the price went just a hair under $2.

God hear you. I just want cheap coins again. Grin

I support this too

awakening

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: proudhon on April 11, 2013, 04:41:41 AM

Quote from: blackreplica on April 11, 2013, 04:37:47 AM

Further update: 180 support broken, which means 100 is the next one. My guess is rangebound trading from between 100-180 at least for the next few days until we establish a new trendline

I remember this game in 2011.

"No way it's going back under $20"

"Ok, no, not going under $13"

"Ok, it might bounce of $10, then continue upward to new highs"

"If the price breaks through $8, then we should see incredibly strong support at $5"

"No, okay, hmmm, $3..."

And the price went just a hair under $2.

God hear you. I just want cheap coins again. Grin

proudhon

legendary

Activity: 2198

Merit: 1311

Quote from: blackreplica on April 11, 2013, 04:37:47 AM

Further update: 180 support broken, which means 100 is the next one. My guess is rangebound trading from between 100-180 at least for the next few days until we establish a new trendline

I remember this game in 2011.

"No way it's going back under $20"

"Ok, no, not going under $13"

"Ok, it might bounce of $10, then continue upward to new highs"

"If the price breaks through $8, then we should see incredibly strong support at $5"

"No, okay, hmmm, $3..."

And the price went just a hair under $2.

blackreplica

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Further update: 180 support broken, which means 100 is the next one. My guess is rangebound trading from between 100-180 at least for the next few days until we establish a new trendline

blackreplica

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

To clarify: 220 anytime soon is highly unlikely. I'd say at best a 20% probability

180 and up on a more conservative (b) growth rate, I'd say about 50-60%

A drop to rangebound trading below 180 with support at 80 in the near term, i'd assign a probability of 20-30%

I'm sorry. I don't have easy answers.

AndyRossy

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Cliff notes: somewhere between 80 and 220?

ty.

blackreplica

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Oh no! Another guy with a chart and lines all over!

OK seriously here's my guess on where things are headed next. First some caveats

1 I am not God
2 I am not telling you what to do. If you're asking me what to do, I have no idea
3 I am using a log chart which can be argued is already inherently bullish

Initially before this correction, some felt we were on an (a) trendline. This trendline has now been broken. However a massive jump back in the next few days could put us back on the (a) warpath. In my opinion this is unlikely.

We now rest, at $180, on a slightly less bullish trendline corresponding to (b) which is forming a support. If i HAD to bet, I would unconfidently bet on this trendline dominating for the next week at least

In my opinion if we break below this support, our next support will be at (c), or if you base your judgements on a linear graph, possibly much lower (lets not be too hard on the permabears, their vision may come true in this case)

Personally I think if we drop to a (c) trendline we still have a chance at a relatively quick recovery but if we enter into a circa 2011 crash far below the (c) trendline, recovery will take as long as it did back then, possibly years

Take it for what it's worth.

Topic: I see one of three possibilities for the next few days (Read 1472 times)