Topic: I smell Fed pivot (Read 122 times)
The ultimate push for FED is the US treasury debt is mostly financed on a low time frame which requires less then a 4 year turn over of the debt on average. That means while they raise the rates, its quickly reflected in the cost of debt interest to the government and so a fiscal budget that increasingly must allocate to just servicing the rising cost of debt. Its very bearish and why the FED will lower rates as gov spending is reduced and so GDP with it very likely; but the time frame isnt this year imo.
I doubt it. The recent fed increase of 75 basis points is the continuing trend with no economic data to support a pivot. USD inflation came down marginally because some items, like cars, went down in demand. Food, energy, all up: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Fed took an incremental approach in controlling inflation by hardly increasing interest rates in an effort to avoid a recession. They've come to accept that there'll be a recession regardless of their actions, so they're slamming the breaks.
I'd note that the current state of the economy isn't terrible. The U.S. will experience a recession eventually and that will likely trigger turmoil on the global economic stage, but that isn't here yet. UK Q3 reports show a recession by 0.2%, could be possible things in Europe begin to fall quicker than they do in the western hemisphere. In any event, fed has no reason to change course.
Fed took an incremental approach in controlling inflation by hardly increasing interest rates in an effort to avoid a recession. They've come to accept that there'll be a recession regardless of their actions, so they're slamming the breaks.
I'd note that the current state of the economy isn't terrible. The U.S. will experience a recession eventually and that will likely trigger turmoil on the global economic stage, but that isn't here yet. UK Q3 reports show a recession by 0.2%, could be possible things in Europe begin to fall quicker than they do in the western hemisphere. In any event, fed has no reason to change course.
Pumping more money into the system will not make any change from the current economic situation. If fed is making any recommendations for that, I don't think that will work because people have already lost their jobs it will only create more insecurities as crime rate will go high and much of those printed money will find there ways into financing of the police and security outfits. For now government should endervour that more youths are employed and older people at retirement age should leave the paid work environment and try to establish personal business, employ people and add to the creation of GDP.
The debt of the United States is borne by the whole world, and therefore they will not be harmed by printing more money, but the increased crime rate and insecurity is a weapon that is used in some countries and like governments. Revival of the rich and the middle class, without the lives of the poor.
Housing the middle and rich people in compounds with the poor will contribute to solving the insecurity.
Housing the middle and rich people in compounds with the poor will contribute to solving the insecurity.
I rather take high inflation and low value of money then unsafe life.
That is contradictory. The high inflation is what causes all the economic problems that lead to more crimes and lack of safety. Besides they are already printing money at a very high speed, the US national debt recently surpassed $30 trillion and now it is at $31 trillion[1] and is rising very fast. With the way the FED has been playing with interest rates to keep dollar strong they have also caused recession which is bad on its own and worse when it comes with inflation.[1] https://www.usdebtclock.org/
The lower than expected inflation reading in the US has given investors reason to cheer as they feel inflation is moving in the right direction and the fed will be able to pivot sooner than was previously being expected. While inflation is still extremely high, it is beginning to look like the worst is behind us and maybe the fed will get back to it’s easy money policy sooner than later.
Nah, it looks quite the opposite. The labour market in the US is so strong that is nearly impossible to control inflation, but also there is still a problem with supply and is going to stay in there if China keeps the Zero COVID policies and shutting down cities and business.
So no short term Fed pivot and the BoE and ECB are not going to fall behind, since they want to keep at least parity and have even bigger inflation problems.
So no short term Fed pivot and the BoE and ECB are not going to fall behind, since they want to keep at least parity and have even bigger inflation problems.
Like you said Powell will always be a hero to save the day and pay the bill by making the printers brrr again. Free money is free. The When is probably months from now? He better do it before the discontented public creates chaos and then stop again in 2025.
The drawback is that the other side of the world is threatened by the brrr. If they aren't accepting USD anymore because the BRICS plans to have a gold-back digital currency, US will have tons of bills circulated just in US. You still want Pivot?
I smell Fed pivot, why ?
Becouse things Are getting ugly economy needs some reliefs.
Economy like that bad Will create unsecure life more crimes or goverment have spend more money on seceurity and police....so better let's. Just go with old ways make the printer go brrrr.......and markets pumping like a trump use to say america is great when stock market Green.
I rather take high inflation and low value of money then unsafe life.
To consider all of that, the PIVOT is only way the question is not Will ?? But when ....
Becouse things Are getting ugly economy needs some reliefs.
Economy like that bad Will create unsecure life more crimes or goverment have spend more money on seceurity and police....so better let's. Just go with old ways make the printer go brrrr.......and markets pumping like a trump use to say america is great when stock market Green.
I rather take high inflation and low value of money then unsafe life.
To consider all of that, the PIVOT is only way the question is not Will ?? But when ....
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