I'd call it a bottom right now. Maybe the lowest in the near future.

piramida

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Quote from: Ozymandias on December 19, 2013, 12:09:03 AM

Waaaay too early to call the bottom yet. While I do like the fact that we bounced off almost the exact bottom of the mid-late november crash, there is plenty of pent up market frustration to still be released. This being the bottom, however, would fit quite nicely with the progressive shrinking of bubbles (32-->2, 266-->50, 1240-->455) = (93.75%, 81.2%, 63.3%)

Yep, next crash should move about 45-50%. It also makes sense, as invested capital grows, the panic has less impact

jmutch

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Quote from: Ozymandias on December 19, 2013, 12:09:03 AM

Waaaay too early to call the bottom yet. While I do like the fact that we bounced off almost the exact bottom of the mid-late november crash, there is plenty of pent up market frustration to still be released. This being the bottom, however, would fit quite nicely with the progressive shrinking of bubbles (32-->2, 266-->50, 1240-->455) = (93.75%, 81.2%, 63.3%)

cool analysis.

beats reading a lot of the speculation around here.

Carra23

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Quote from: freebird on December 19, 2013, 12:47:05 AM

Quote from: Carra23 on December 19, 2013, 12:44:26 AM

No point trying to call the bottom.

I have spent half the fiat buying, and keeping the other half for now. If it goes to 250$ (Bitstamp) I do not want to miss the opportunity.

Reasonable strategy. However, I find it hard to imagine who would actually be the sellers at a price like $250. It's not as though China is necessary for bitcoin's success in the rest of the world.

Its spread out. Started buying since $550.

China fueled the current rise. China going out means there would be a big rollback. 250$ sounds optimistic (or pessimistic) but if the next slide happens fear will grip and anything is possible.

Peter R

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Quote from: freebird on December 19, 2013, 12:47:05 AM

Quote from: Carra23 on December 19, 2013, 12:44:26 AM

No point trying to call the bottom.

I have spent half the fiat buying, and keeping the other half for now. If it goes to 250$ (Bitstamp) I do not want to miss the opportunity.

Reasonable strategy. However, I find it hard to imagine who would actually be the sellers at a price like $250. It's not as though China is necessary for bitcoin's success in the rest of the world.

I agree. If it was going to flash crash that low, it would have happened already. The mechanism would have been people panicking too hard and eating through most of the order book before new cash could be deposited and before new bid walls could be erected. If you look at the bid/ask sums on blockchained.com, you'll see the bid walls are already building.

freebird

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Quote from: Carra23 on December 19, 2013, 12:44:26 AM

No point trying to call the bottom.

I have spent half the fiat buying, and keeping the other half for now. If it goes to 250$ (Bitstamp) I do not want to miss the opportunity.

Reasonable strategy. However, I find it hard to imagine who would actually be the sellers at a price like $250. It's not as though China is necessary for bitcoin's success in the rest of the world.

Ozymandias

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Quote from: Peter R on December 19, 2013, 12:41:50 AM

Quote from: Ozymandias on December 19, 2013, 12:18:54 AM

Quote from: freebird on December 19, 2013, 12:17:59 AM

I think the bottom is in. Seems to me that anyone who wanted to sell would have already sold by now. I was expecting BTCChina to drop a lot more and the other exchanges to decouple from it, but it seems there must be some arbitrage going on to keep all the exchanges closely following each other. I'm betting the non-Chinese bullishness will overpower the problems in China and we could enter a flat period or a slow rise.

But how could arbitrage occur if you can't get yuan into the exchanges?

Somehow it seems our favourite whale "loaded" got fiat into BTCChina. He posted on the wall observer thread "hello from China" and then immediately afterwards the 2000 BTC wall at 2640 yuan got eaten.

Classic loaded Cool

That guy is a character, whenever I see his name I can't help but smile Cheesy

Carra23

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No point trying to call the bottom.

I have spent half the fiat buying, and keeping the other half for now. If it goes to 250$ (Bitstamp) I do not want to miss the opportunity.

Peter R

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Quote from: Ozymandias on December 19, 2013, 12:18:54 AM

Quote from: freebird on December 19, 2013, 12:17:59 AM

I think the bottom is in. Seems to me that anyone who wanted to sell would have already sold by now. I was expecting BTCChina to drop a lot more and the other exchanges to decouple from it, but it seems there must be some arbitrage going on to keep all the exchanges closely following each other. I'm betting the non-Chinese bullishness will overpower the problems in China and we could enter a flat period or a slow rise.

But how could arbitrage occur if you can't get yuan into the exchanges?

Somehow it seems our favourite whale "loaded" got fiat into BTCChina. He posted on the wall observer thread "hello from China" and then immediately afterwards the 2000 BTC wall at 2640 yuan got eaten.

Classic loaded Cool

freebird

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Quote from: Ozymandias on December 19, 2013, 12:18:54 AM

Quote from: freebird on December 19, 2013, 12:17:59 AM

I think the bottom is in. Seems to me that anyone who wanted to sell would have already sold by now. I was expecting BTCChina to drop a lot more and the other exchanges to decouple from it, but it seems there must be some arbitrage going on to keep all the exchanges closely following each other. I'm betting the non-Chinese bullishness will overpower the problems in China and we could enter a flat period or a slow rise.

But how could arbitrage occur if you can't get yuan into the exchanges?

Couldn't they withdraw BTC and transfer it to the other exchanges and sell for fiat there?

Edit: Never mind, I just remembered they can also withdraw fiat to Chinese banks. So I guess I'm not sure how arbitrage would be possible. Maybe the other exchanges are just blindly following BTCChina down. At some point I still think they will decouple from one another more than has happened already, since a bitcoin outside of China is now objectively speaking worth more than a bitcoin inside China.

Ozymandias

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Quote from: freebird on December 19, 2013, 12:17:59 AM

I think the bottom is in. Seems to me that anyone who wanted to sell would have already sold by now. I was expecting BTCChina to drop a lot more and the other exchanges to decouple from it, but it seems there must be some arbitrage going on to keep all the exchanges closely following each other. I'm betting the non-Chinese bullishness will overpower the problems in China and we could enter a flat period or a slow rise.

But how could arbitrage occur if you can't get yuan into the exchanges?

freebird

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I think the bottom is in. Seems to me that anyone who wanted to sell would have already sold by now. I was expecting BTCChina to drop a lot more and the other exchanges to decouple from it, but it seems there must be some arbitrage going on to keep all the exchanges closely following each other. I'm betting the non-Chinese bullishness will overpower the problems in China and we could enter a flat period or a slow rise.

Ozymandias

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Quote from: BitCloud on December 19, 2013, 12:14:10 AM

Quote from: Ozymandias on December 19, 2013, 12:09:03 AM

Waaaay too early to call the bottom yet. While I do like the fact that we bounced off almost the exact bottom of the mid-late november crash, there is plenty of pent up market frustration to still be released. This being the bottom, however, would fit quite nicely with the progressive shrinking of bubbles (32-->2, 266-->50, 1240-->455) = (93.75%, 81.2%, 63.3%)

love the way you are analyzing trends

Can't tell if sarcasm, but considering the fact that I'm relatively new at all this I'll assume that I said something fucktarded and apologize.

BitCloud

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Quote from: Ozymandias on December 19, 2013, 12:09:03 AM

Waaaay too early to call the bottom yet. While I do like the fact that we bounced off almost the exact bottom of the mid-late november crash, there is plenty of pent up market frustration to still be released. This being the bottom, however, would fit quite nicely with the progressive shrinking of bubbles (32-->2, 266-->50, 1240-->455) = (93.75%, 81.2%, 63.3%)

love the way you are analyzing trends

Ozymandias

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Waaaay too early to call the bottom yet. While I do like the fact that we bounced off almost the exact bottom of the mid-late november crash, there is plenty of pent up market frustration to still be released. This being the bottom, however, would fit quite nicely with the progressive shrinking of bubbles (32-->2, 266-->50, 1240-->455) = (93.75%, 81.2%, 63.3%)

evolve

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Maybe, maybe not. For the record, I do think we are near the bottom of this crash but I am not buying back in fully until the dust settles...it may not be over yet.

AlbertKing

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The china exchanges correction is much faster than I expected(watch the amounts).
Right now big money in china is playing tricks to get cheaper coins.

And after yesterday's presure test of RMB2,000, there is very few chance that it ever go worse than RMB2,500.

So I'd call it a bottom now, if no more bad news from the gov.

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Topic: I'd call it a bottom right now. Maybe the lowest in the near future. (Read 1260 times)