I have been thinking about ways to improve Bitcoin that might promote its more widespread adoption. Apart from relatively minor issues of ease-of-use, security, etc. (which will improve naturally as tools improve), I see two major fundamental structural problems with Bitcoin at present:
1. The limit on the total of Bitcoins that may ever exist is, numerically speaking, much too small compared to the world money supply, which leads to a significant psychological barrier - since it is very difficult for a normal "man on the street" to believe that 1 BTC could someday be worth $100,000 or more (as it would have to be if Bitcoins ever became as widely adopted as the US dollar, say). I think that a major reason why the BTC peaked at $30 and is only around $4 now is that it is just too hard for most people to believe that each unit of a new, relatively untested currency could possibly be worth much more than a dollar. (Yes, I know that absolute exchange rates are meaningless, but they are psychologically significant for most people nonetheless.)
2. Regardless of supply considerations, there is no floor on the value of each Bitcoin - i.e., there is nothing to prevent the BTC value in terms of other currencies from just drifting down and down until it reaches zero. This would happen if, for example, over time, everyone just got bored with it and give up on it.
I have a suggestion that would solve both of these problems:
Start a brand-new Bitcoin network from scratch (call it "Bitcoin 2.0", 3-letter currency symbol BC2), with the following key differences from the original Bitcoin:
(A) The asymptotic maximum number of BC2 that will ever exist is set at 10 trillion (instead of 21 million), a number comparable to the base money supply of traditional sovereign currencies. This gives the currency much more room to grow, without running afoul of anyone's instincts about how much 1 unit of a currency should be worth.
(B) The initial rate of creation is set at 500 billion BC2 per year, and every 10 years the creation rate is cut in half. So in 10 years there will be 5 trillion, after another 10 years 7.5 trillion, after another 10 years 8.75 trillion, and so forth. So in only a few decades, the supply of BC2 will become comparable to the base supply of existing currencies.
(C) Each user of the reference client, which is copyrighted in every country, is required to first register their real-world identity with a central service, and sign a legally-binding contract promising that, in exchange for a perpetual license to use the reference client or any other software derived from the reference client, they will, in perpetuity, accept 1 BC2 from anyone in place of at least US$1 worth of any existing sovereign currency that is owed them (based on the exchange rates on the date that the BC2 block chain was started). International patents are also secured, to ensure that other clients following the protocol but not derived from the reference client and not subject to its licensing agreement cannot be distributed.
Now, some neat things to note about this new system:
* Suppose the difficulty is calibrated by the algorithm so that on average, 1 new block will get added to the block chain every minute. Then the reward for each new block is
500B/365/24/60 = 951,293, or almost a million dollars' worth of BC2!
* Due to this, if you think the growth of the existing Bitcoin network was impressive, the gold rush towards this new system will be so explosive that it will make the growth rate of the existing system look plodding in comparison!!! In almost no time, everyone will switch over to mining BC2, because the rewards will be so much greater than with BTC.
* Further, the contractual agreement will give all participants in the new system the confidence that the value of BC2 will never fall below that of existing currencies, so merchants and ordinary people will much more quickly come to feel safe investing both their working cash and their savings in the form of BC2.
Any thoughts?
[Edit: Just wrote a blog post on this idea:
http://minetopics.blogspot.com/2011/10/how-to-fix-bitcoin.html.]