% idiots among investors | Bitcointalksearch.org

justdimin

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Quote from: Husires on May 28, 2023, 02:57:19 AM

When you have a choice between fear and greed, the emotion of fear is much greater than greed. It is this fear that forces people to take the safest solutions in the event of fluctuations or impotence.In the normal situation, you prefer Bitcoin over the dollar, but when the price of Bitcoin begins to decline, you will find yourself ready to sell Bitcoin at half the price that they would have given you in exchange for avoiding the loss.
On the other hand, when the price starts to increase, greed is dominant, but when uncertainty comes or negative news begins to appear, selling is everyone's choice.

I think it depends on the person. There are some people who are weak enough which obviously they are consumed by their fears but the opposite are not. They have the courage to do almost anything. I guess this can also equates to being greedy. When they already engage on the thing. They will always try to give their best.

Fluctuations are our ally. This is where we buy low and sell high so people must not be afraid with it. BTC and Dollar has their own advantage and disadvantages. We use BTC to earn a profit but we can also use it as a currency if we want to. It still has an advantage over the dollar. Selling at a loss are one of the strategy use by the traders or even some investors. If they are good enough, they can still be able to recover what they have lost.

disconnectme

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I believe this is the right result expected, do you expect people to bet more on Bitcoin or Gold, there is a reason why Bitcoin is still number one in the Crypto space because it has been tested and trusted over all these Altcoins that are unproven.Gold has been tested and trusted over the years with far higher market cap than Bitcoin and nothing so far has been able to displace it, US treasury too is secured and both are less volatile as compare to Bitcoin, Bitcoin would reach this level in future but need to be more tested

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This is nothing to be surprised about, most people are still very much more conversant with gold than bitcoin, gold has been a long aged assets which have been way back from time when this world was created, I would say that gold is probably the first precious metal to be created, so it is not surprising.

Bitcoin is just a suckling baby where gold is, and also understand that in analysis like this, gold will always enjoy that first mover advantage when compared to other kinds of assets, bitcoin still need alot of time to full trust from the masses, most especially those in the financial market, there is no need to hurry, it is a step by step thing, and one day, bitcoin will truly become the most chosen asset for those hedging their funds against inflation.

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Quote from: wxa7115 on May 28, 2023, 01:30:15 AM

Quote from: slaman29 on May 25, 2023, 03:00:25 AM

I agree, it's impossible to see this happen. Remember all the past default scares were just easily overturned, they raise the debt ceiling. This time they just wanted something extra from the president, to give in, show some power or show him to be weak, whatever it was.

Eventually maybe a default will happen but not this term and even if so, I don't think it ends up being death spiral for US. China doesn't want it either, as long as currency is strong they benefit from strong USD.

We knew this was going to eventuality be solved as at heart this was simply about the negotiation between two different parties vying for more power.

If the US dollar is to fall, this will happen due to a black swan which destabilizes the economy to such degree there is no way to repair it, the 2008 crisis was close to do this and many economists admit as much when interviewed, so another crisis like that could be enough to bring the US dollar down, however no one knows when such a thing may happen.

Yup, just about showing off, and also probably about the big split between those in power, and those who feel they want to put something else in power.

Personally, I feel like even if the default happens, (which again I say it won't), it won't affect me. But I know my politicians will somehow make it so that we have the effects.

And then we will end up paying more for things, earning less, etc.

Funny is how no matter what state of economy is, we will always pay more Sad

So the only hope for us is that Bitcoin comes out of this strong.

judaspriest

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Quote from: Husires on May 28, 2023, 02:57:19 AM

When you have a choice between fear and greed, the emotion of fear is much greater than greed. It is this fear that forces people to take the safest solutions in the event of fluctuations or impotence.In the normal situation, you prefer Bitcoin over the dollar, but when the price of Bitcoin begins to decline, you will find yourself ready to sell Bitcoin at half the price that they would have given you in exchange for avoiding the loss.
On the other hand, when the price starts to increase, greed is dominant, but when uncertainty comes or negative news begins to appear, selling is everyone's choice.

Basically, when faced with such conditions, a person's psychology tends to be like what you said,
what to watch out for when the price goes up and whether consciously or unconsciously, greed will appear,
so we have to really control that and that's important.

jokers10

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Quote from: Husires on May 28, 2023, 02:57:19 AM

When you have a choice between fear and greed, the emotion of fear is much greater than greed. It is this fear that forces people to take the safest solutions in the event of fluctuations or impotence.In the normal situation, you prefer Bitcoin over the dollar, but when the price of Bitcoin begins to decline, you will find yourself ready to sell Bitcoin at half the price that they would have given you in exchange for avoiding the loss.
On the other hand, when the price starts to increase, greed is dominant, but when uncertainty comes or negative news begins to appear, selling is everyone's choice.

How is it connected to that some investors say that they'll invest in US Treasures in case of US default? It is not about that you prefer dollars or bitcoins, it is about you choose defaulted assets because of their default. Sounds strange. And basing on your terminology is it fear or greed? OP supposed it is a kind of stupidity... Well, may be they have some unobvious explanation, may be they expect sales on Treasures and hope to earn on that... like a variant. Grin

Husires

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When you have a choice between fear and greed, the emotion of fear is much greater than greed. It is this fear that forces people to take the safest solutions in the event of fluctuations or impotence.In the normal situation, you prefer Bitcoin over the dollar, but when the price of Bitcoin begins to decline, you will find yourself ready to sell Bitcoin at half the price that they would have given you in exchange for avoiding the loss.
On the other hand, when the price starts to increase, greed is dominant, but when uncertainty comes or negative news begins to appear, selling is everyone's choice.

wxa7115

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Quote from: slaman29 on May 25, 2023, 03:00:25 AM

I agree, it's impossible to see this happen. Remember all the past default scares were just easily overturned, they raise the debt ceiling. This time they just wanted something extra from the president, to give in, show some power or show him to be weak, whatever it was.

Eventually maybe a default will happen but not this term and even if so, I don't think it ends up being death spiral for US. China doesn't want it either, as long as currency is strong they benefit from strong USD.

We knew this was going to eventuality be solved as at heart this was simply about the negotiation between two different parties vying for more power.

If the US dollar is to fall, this will happen due to a black swan which destabilizes the economy to such degree there is no way to repair it, the 2008 crisis was close to do this and many economists admit as much when interviewed, so another crisis like that could be enough to bring the US dollar down, however no one knows when such a thing may happen.

Gallar

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Quote from: zasad@ on May 21, 2023, 07:47:00 AM

"The precious metal is by far the top pick for those seeking protection in case Washington’s game of chicken over the debt ceiling ends in a crash, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey. More than half of finance professionals said gold is what they would buy if the US government fails to honor its obligations."

In my opinion, it is no longer strange that gold is an alternative for most people to use as an investment asset or store of value. Because gold has been a valuable asset for mankind since thousands of years ago. So it's not strange that gold is now a very valuable asset or store of value in almost all circles. Gold also has many uses, and almost everyone already knows this. Like being used as jewelry, currency, as a material for electronic devices, and can even be used for beauty ingredients. So with so many uses, gold is definitely in great demand and loved by many people. Those are the things that make gold very valuable in the eyes of all humans.

But what is no less surprising is that bitcoin has been able to go up so far. Even though bitcoin is just over a decade old. That way bitcoin has indeed proven profitable, for most investors. It could even be that in the future bitcoin can match gold or even beat its popularity.

ancafe

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Quote from: zasad@ on May 21, 2023, 07:47:00 AM

"The precious metal is by far the top pick for those seeking protection in case Washington’s game of chicken over the debt ceiling ends in a crash, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey. More than half of finance professionals said gold is what they would buy if the US government fails to honor its obligations."

That is not only true in the US and in my country over the last few decades people have also preferred gold as their choice. But is choosing one of the options much better than choosing some of the existing methods for example real estate and bitcoins as they are the closest sources at the moment. So that the investment value that you run is sustainable and able to maintain the investment value and regardless of the risks that will arise if the community chooses.

Quote from: zasad@ on May 21, 2023, 07:47:00 AM

But more than 20% of Professional investors and more than 25% of Retail investors will bail out their Treasury and dollar investments. Or I do not understand the meaning of the US default?

I'm wondering if the survey is specifically for some of the ages that fall into the category, because if this survey were conducted in my country for people over 50 years old and above then the answer they would choose would be gold. However, this is not necessarily the same choice if a survey is conducted on people under the age of 50, because perhaps many people are familiar with other investment systems that have the potential for greater returns.

slaman29

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Quote from: zasad@ on May 24, 2023, 06:56:54 AM

Quote from: slaman29 on May 22, 2023, 01:42:26 AM

Bitcoin I buy ALL the time anyway so I don't get why people think it's a good idea to buy BTC only when dollar crashes Wink

I don't believe in a US default because it will kill a lot of US companies.Only big banks and companies will survive.
China has about a trillion dollars worth of treasuries and Japan has about the same. The US has a good debt-to-GDP ratio. The US can punish China with sanctions if there is a war with Taiwan, but what about other creditors?

I agree, it's impossible to see this happen. Remember all the past default scares were just easily overturned, they raise the debt ceiling. This time they just wanted something extra from the president, to give in, show some power or show him to be weak, whatever it was.

Eventually maybe a default will happen but not this term and even if so, I don't think it ends up being death spiral for US. China doesn't want it either, as long as currency is strong they benefit from strong USD.

Flexystar

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Honestly be thankful that we are seeing bitcoin as the third best choice in such short period of time. I don’t know but I think this is winning situation for the bitcoin. It’s not joke to be that popular just with over a decades of time and from the time period when people are actually started to understand what bitcoin is and how it is also one of the investment asset that can challenge you great deal of profits.

Just give it another decade and you will see how it will start switching the positions and making its upward trend. Bitcoin will get mined and demand will rise on faster scale as compared to the Gold rush. I am sure we will see prices and popularity both rising at an alarming rates.

Nrcewker

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Many people have different opinions. The reason for various answers is here due to the information they have on that particular asset. As here we are in a Bitcoin forum, so if we see anything against Bitcoins, we will feel a bit upset, but the people who have chosen gold are just more connected towards gold, or aren’t aware of Bitcoins advantages. So yes blaming them and calling them fool will be really unnecessary to be honest. This is just my way of thinking.

avikz

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This is the time when we all need to remember the teachings of Mr. Robert Kiyosaki. Invest in God's money. I am glad to see that people are actually considering this. Gold and other precious metals are the best bet against any kind of recession. If you take historical lesson, you will see Gold has never failed as a capital protection tool. If US defaults, Gold will skyrocket almost immediately.

Bitcoin is still uncertain. No one knows how they are going to react during a recession. So a small percentage of your portfolio can become handy. Let's not think about who are stupid or not.

rby

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Quote from: zasad@ on May 21, 2023, 07:47:00 AM

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-15/debt-ceiling-negotiations-have-investors-eyeing-gold-if-us-defaults

My interest is in the middle of the infographic. I saw dollars in the middle sharing same poll opinion with bitcoin, just for retailers who chosed bitcoin slightly above dollars. While people are seeing a means to remain in value when dollar defaults, I am seeing the level of bitcoin awareness and adoption.
While I wouldn't know the price of bitcoin when dollar will default, I will not be so confident that I will buy bitcoin. But buying a crashed dollar can give a huge profit in the future.

hugeblack

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Bitcoin is currently far from being a fierce competitor to gold, the market value of bitcoin is less than a trillion dollars and it is less than 20 years old, it is weaker even than companies such as Aramco, Apple, Alphabet, and other technology giants.

Therefore, I am not surprised that most people chose gold and did not choose bitcoin, but I do not understand why they chose treasury bills or any cash deposits such as the Swiss franc, the Chinese yuan, or any other currency linked to the dollar.

So we cannot say that they are idiots.

zasad@

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Quote from: slaman29 on May 22, 2023, 01:42:26 AM

OP I would also buy dollar of course presuming I am the type of person that gambles on outcomes like these.

Obviously not immediately but when the dollar crashes because of default, I would buy it a lot. Knowing it would for sure bounce back.

You know when Trump was in power everyone thought dollar was eventually going to crash (US almost defaulted like several times also) but then we saw last year the strongest USD ever despite all the money printing they went ahead with interest rates.

Bitcoin I buy ALL the time anyway so I don't get why people think it's a good idea to buy BTC only when dollar crashes Wink

I don't believe in a US default because it will kill a lot of US companies.Only big banks and companies will survive.
China has about a trillion dollars worth of treasuries and Japan has about the same. The US has a good debt-to-GDP ratio. The US can punish China with sanctions if there is a war with Taiwan, but what about other creditors?

slaman29

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OP I would also buy dollar of course presuming I am the type of person that gambles on outcomes like these.

Obviously not immediately but when the dollar crashes because of default, I would buy it a lot. Knowing it would for sure bounce back.

You know when Trump was in power everyone thought dollar was eventually going to crash (US almost defaulted like several times also) but then we saw last year the strongest USD ever despite all the money printing they went ahead with interest rates.

Bitcoin I buy ALL the time anyway so I don't get why people think it's a good idea to buy BTC only when dollar crashes Wink

adaseb

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Well if they default what else can you really buy? You can buy gold or even some foreign currencies. Stocks will be hard because they will most likely also fall due to the huge unemployment rate due to the default.

Keep in mind this won’t happen. Every year they have these scary tactics but in the end the debt is moved higher and everything goes on as before. Don’t know why people expect them to default, they will print their way out of this.

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 21, 2023, 08:03:18 AM

It is naive to only choose one thing to invest at times where the fiat currencies are dumping with high inflation

Totally, but the poll is actually sensible in a way. Gold is valuable and it can easily be traded if push comes to shove, it's naive yes but it's ignorant of us to say so especially if we don't know each individual investors financial standing, maybe they can afford to fully diversify their money so they just want to go for the sure shot investment.

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I am a supporter of the idea that you always need to work on yourself. And trading is an industry where you need to work twice as hard. Too bad a lot of people don't take this into account.

You don't have to work hard as much, what you need to do when you are trading is that you need to be smart about how you do trades, do TA, gain experience and almost always go for safe routes and know when to do risky trades, that way, you don't need to work as hard as you should.

wxa7115

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Quote from: boyptc on May 21, 2023, 08:36:56 AM

Gold is like the standard of assets and reserves and that's why it's being treated as one of the safest assets where people can jump off if they see that it's no longer safe to bet for their fiat.

But look, base on that bar graph Bitcoin is the third and I'm more than happy to see that with 3 digits of respondents.

Well aside from Bitcoin on the chart, if I'm also asked which currency I'll jump my assets then I'd probably said JPY.

Gold has a massive advantage as it has a history of being a store of value which goes as far back as thousands of years, so even if the fiat system is the dominant one at the moment, people have not forgotten this lesson humans have paid a heavy price to learn.

However what is surprising is that even if it is a distant third bitcoin appears on that list, this shows that the new generations despite the lack of financial literacy understand enough about how the economy works to be suspicious about it, and they realize the potential bitcoin has as a store of value under those circumstances.

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Quote from: SquirrelJulietGarden on May 21, 2023, 09:49:16 AM

Quote from: boyptc on May 21, 2023, 08:36:56 AM

Gold is like the standard of assets and reserves and that's why it's being treated as one of the safest assets where people can jump off if they see that it's no longer safe to bet for their fiat.

Gold was no longer used as a gold standard since the Great Depression and after World War II.

Gold standard history. It was reinstalled later but was abandoned again since 1971. That metal is still considered as very precious asset for investors and we see why Bitcoin is considered as a digital gold.

It may not be the standard based on that wikipedia you've shared but as set in the minds of each individuals, it is and still one of the safest routes into investing and getting into assets.

Quote from: SquirrelJulietGarden on May 21, 2023, 09:49:16 AM

Bitcoin is better than gold as it is portable with your private keys. You don't have to depend on banks, vaults to store your golds, log in your account and make exchange of gold to cash.

We all knew that but there are investors that want it the conservative and typical way of investing and that's through gold, jewelries, real estates, other currencies and stuff.

We know that it's a liquid asset and can be sold anytime from everywhere with just a few clicks away.

Quote from: SquirrelJulietGarden on May 21, 2023, 09:49:16 AM

You don't have any key for your gold and will lose it if bankruptcy occurs.

As long as you have it, the value it has got remains.

safar1980

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Quote from: EarnOnVictor on May 21, 2023, 01:26:22 PM

I believe you know the meaning of the US default, but the only thing I would like to correct regarding a caption on the image attached is that the US debt ceiling has happened already, it happened sometime on January, 19th if I am correct. It's the default that has not happened and I don't think they would let that happen as it would be catastrophic to the USA, US businesses, allies and American people.

To further with, I didn't expect different statistics from the first three assets shown (Gold, Treasuries and Bitcoin). It might vary slightly when surveys are made on them over and over again, the results will always look like that.

How are investors going to return their investments after a default if the US refuses to pay treasuries?
In Russia in 1998 there was a default, many banks went bankrupt, who bought government bonds. Investors lost 50-100% of their investment. The main owners of treasuries are banks, companies, US pension and insurance funds, and the Fed has the largest share.

EarnOnVictor

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I believe you know the meaning of the US default, but the only thing I would like to correct regarding a caption on the image attached is that the US debt ceiling has happened already, it happened sometime on January, 19th if I am correct. It's the default that has not happened and I don't think they would let that happen as it would be catastrophic to the USA, US businesses, allies and American people.

To further with, I didn't expect different statistics from the first three assets shown (Gold, Treasuries and Bitcoin). It might vary slightly when surveys are made on them over and over again, the results will always look like that.

royalfestus

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I find it difficult to comprehend the default scenario that arises when the USA reaches its debt ceiling. Who exactly does the USA owe money to, and why do some individuals consistently engage in spreading misinformation and creating confusion regarding the implications of US debt? While gold is indeed a valuable asset, there are numerous other government assets with substantial liquidity that people often overlook.

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 21, 2023, 08:03:18 AM

It is naive to only choose one thing to invest at times where the fiat currencies are dumping with high inflation, whether it is bitcoin alone or gold alone or anything else alone. Of course these days people tend to go back to what is considered a safe haven traditionally and that is gold but over the past 14 years bitcoin has proven to be a very solid investment for the long term specially since it is the only existing currency that has a cap. In fact the more money they print the more people are going to realize what this cap means and right now US national debt is $31.79 trillion dollar and increasing rapidly.
Worst of all is the US total debt to GDP ratio that is 134%, the $5.4 trillion deficit is like a guarantee of success for an investment in anything like gold or bitcoin over the long run.

You are right but we do not know if the option to choose multiple options was provided when the survey was being conducted.
Being professional investors they would obviously know the value of diversification and I think most of these investors would actually diversify their investments.
In that case, bitcoin would also see a significant jump in it's price. Even a small % of them choose to invest in bitcoin the price jump would be huge.

SamReomo

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Those investors are quite smart in choosing gold over anything else because gold is the safest option in financial disasters that's going to take place anytime in coming months. It's a precious metal and if dollar losses its value the gold will get pumped and specially for the ones who bought it with dollar will gain edge over others. The investors will make profits with peace of mind, and that's a win-win situation.

Those investors who decided to invest in Bitcoin are also among the smart ones because in such financial collapses the Bitcoin is expected to go higher in value due to the investments that the investors put into it. There is also a huge chance of a bull run in the coming months and the ones who invest in it can multiply their investment with the king of crypto world.

The treasuries are also okay in such times because they can get such pumps as well in financial hard times. However, I would never prefer them over gold or Bitcoin because both of those are the best as a investment in such times and their returns on investments are quite higher with those two.

SquirrelJulietGarden

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Quote from: boyptc on May 21, 2023, 08:36:56 AM

Gold is like the standard of assets and reserves and that's why it's being treated as one of the safest assets where people can jump off if they see that it's no longer safe to bet for their fiat.

Gold was no longer used as a gold standard since the Great Depression and after World War II.

Gold standard history. It was reinstalled later but was abandoned again since 1971. That metal is still considered as very precious asset for investors and we see why Bitcoin is considered as a digital gold.

Bitcoin is better than gold as it is portable with your private keys. You don't have to depend on banks, vaults to store your golds, log in your account and make exchange of gold to cash. You don't have any key for your gold and will lose it if bankruptcy occurs.

boyptc

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Gold is like the standard of assets and reserves and that's why it's being treated as one of the safest assets where people can jump off if they see that it's no longer safe to bet for their fiat.

But look, base on that bar graph Bitcoin is the third and I'm more than happy to see that with 3 digits of respondents.

Well aside from Bitcoin on the chart, if I'm also asked which currency I'll jump my assets then I'd probably said JPY.

pooya87

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It is naive to only choose one thing to invest at times where the fiat currencies are dumping with high inflation, whether it is bitcoin alone or gold alone or anything else alone. Of course these days people tend to go back to what is considered a safe haven traditionally and that is gold but over the past 14 years bitcoin has proven to be a very solid investment for the long term specially since it is the only existing currency that has a cap. In fact the more money they print the more people are going to realize what this cap means and right now US national debt is $31.79 trillion dollar and increasing rapidly.
Worst of all is the US total debt to GDP ratio that is 134%, the $5.4 trillion deficit is like a guarantee of success for an investment in anything like gold or bitcoin over the long run.

Eternad

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It’s normal to see that kind of result since most of the so called professional investors still butthurt on Bitcoin because they missed the profit train. Gold is the typical go to assets of most investors that doesn’t have exposure or mislead by mainstream media about Bitcoin since Gold is physical. Most investors in the financial world is still old school when it comes to investment.

I think the result is still good seeing Bitcoin on 3rd rank that overtake USD and YUAN which is the most popular fiat right now. It shows how people value more Bitcoin than worthless fiat which is the goal.

zasad@

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-15/debt-ceiling-negotiations-have-investors-eyeing-gold-if-us-defaults

"The precious metal is by far the top pick for those seeking protection in case Washington’s game of chicken over the debt ceiling ends in a crash, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey. More than half of finance professionals said gold is what they would buy if the US government fails to honor its obligations."

___
But more than 20% of Professional investors and more than 25% of Retail investors will bail out their Treasury and dollar investments. Or I do not understand the meaning of the US default?

Topic: % idiots among investors (Read 318 times)