Topic: If Bitcoin had a Billion Max supply instead of 21 million.... (Read 553 times)

If bitcoin had more supply or unlimited supply, then it will not be worth as it is now. You have seen coins like dogecoin which have so much supply and their price is always down.
The only reason why everyone wants to invest in bitcoin is that it is fixed in quantity and therefore its price increases with demand.

Most altcoins have no internal division into smaller price particles. Based on the fact that each bitcoin has one hundred million satoshis, we can say that in fact, bitcoin has much more small particles for trading than other cryptocurrencies. Other cryptocurrencies can also pack their usual one hundred million price particles into larger names, and then it turns out that there will be much less of them than bitcoins.
Interesting thoughts, isn't it?

Why would it make any difference?


I can't make any sense of what you are trying to say here.

New adopters when the block subsidy ends (150 years from now?) can acquire bitcoins the same way as anyone does today.  They can purchase it at exchanges, they can earn it in exchange for products or services, they can earn it from the transaction fees through block confirmation, they can steal it. A limit (or lack thereof) on the total bitcoins created has no effect on any of this.


If you like that solution, you are welcome to use any of the thousands of inflate-a-coin altcoins that people have created because they believed as you do.  How are those coins doing relative to Bitcoin by the way?

At this point in time the effect of the supply cap is currently unknown because we have not yet experienced it. We will know what effect the 21 million cap has on price only once all bitcoins have become mined and accounted for.



Once bitcoin is well established(is this now?), current supply would determine value much more than future potential maximum supply. The artificial cap could have improved short term growth by creating the deflationary narrative but long term growth would require supply growth or some other incentive for new adopters to consider joining once the coin is no longer mine-able. The most elegant solution is no cap but a defined supply increase with the limit approaching zero and letting the cap naturally be set to the capacity we have to apply our technology to mining as difficulty increases. The price would continue to go up because the coin would still become increasingly rare over time and the network would still continue to grow in a similar fashion to what we have seen over a much longer period.

I don't really understand how your math works , but you're probably thinking in the right direction.

Okay anyone good with maths here can answer this?

What if Bitcoin had a Billion Max supply yet instead of 8 decimal places to lowest 0.00000001 it has 6 decimal places that is 0.000001?

Why 8 decimal places? Is it because in computing we move in even number bits, like 8-bit, 16-bit, 32-bit, 64-bit or whatever and there cant be a 6-bit/decimal place?

I do not think that is ever going to be necessary, even if at some point we got an equivalence of one dollar for one satoshi it is very likely that at that time the dollar would have gone through hyperinflation which means the dollar will not buy anything and the satoshi will still be small enough and will allow enough granularity to our transactions.

However if it is ever needed the developers will add it as if they can pull off something like the lightning network then adding just a few decimals to the right should be something incredibly easy for them.

This is something that needs to be considered seriously. I would say that since the current Bitcoin price is around $31,000 and in future BTC is expected to test six-digits, the decimal point needs to be moved by six places to the right. That would mean that all the existing and yet-to-be mined Bitcoins getting subdivided by 100,000. So 1 BTC in existence becomes 100,000 BTC. This will being the unit price down to manageable levels. For the software, it makes no difference. Earlier 1 BTC was equal to 100 million Satoshi. And now 1 BTC will equal 1000 Satoshi.

if btc had a billion supply not unlimited . unlimited is crazier than a billion supply and i do not know if there will still be investors if the coin has an unlimited supply .
coins that have a billions supply surprisingly have a nice number  of investors  . xrp is not decentralize thats why they can increase their supply  .
others are not contented with the supply that btc have and they think they are small , they wish that it can be increased too but we cant agree with that .

I think this will not gonna happen. If bitcoin become infinite, then it loses its scarcity.

then institutions will buy a large amount of them and many government will be buried in mining. We ordinary can get some, too coz the price will decline. But will Satoshi allow this?

Then it wouldn't be as scarce as it is now. The good thing about cryptocurrencies is that supply does not automatically affect the demand, so we can still expect or ses a value at least as high as what we have right now, but mining and other bitcoin fauceting methods will not be as hard or unprofitable as they are right now.

Limited supply makes Bitcoin more demandable and more valuable, If it has unlimited supply People were afraid to invest in it, People were not keen to invest in it, they thought Supply is more than demand so investing in it will not be profitable. You can look at XRP as an example, They have increased their circulating supply, their supply has increased more than the demand, now they are is in crisis with their existence.

There will be many chances, the price will be low but the gain will be the same. It can happen in another way because if the supply is too much and the price is low, when the rise was rising, it may not attack peoples attention, it can also be in a way that price may not like bitcoin and go for the better ones. The 21 million supply is perfect for bitcoin, it is one of the goal-driven achievements that has led to demand for bitcoin to be increasing. I get your point because if the supply increase, the price can reduce but it all depends on the adoption, if adopted like now, the gain will be like now too but only the price will not be like now but reduced.

This obsession with the unit price makes me wonder sometimes.

bitcoin has 100 million satoshis each. In fact, at the protocol level there are only satoshis. The bitcoin software does not care about whole bitcoins. It only cares about satoshis.

The bitcoin "unit" is actually just a convention!

Still, there are valid questions to be asked

1) Would it have been different (for better or worse) if the decimal point was chosen to be further to the right? Really even now it's little more that changing what the client shows as "one" bitcoin.
  Back when the price of one unit was just cents this would have been a moot point. Now I'm not so sure. Unit bias is a real thing.

2) Should it be considered in the future to increase the decimal points to the right? Effectively 10x all the satoshi in existence (the equivalent of 1 decimal point increase)
  This is not really an increase in supply as all balances AND past transactions would see that increase. What it would do is add precision to allow for even smaller transfers of value and maybe more granularity in fees

Nothing would change, everything would be the same as it is now, it'd just be a lot longer timeframe until all were mined. And why are you pondering such things OP, you wouldn't want there to be a billion ;P

At least to me the size of the supply is irrelevant what matters is if the supply is limited or not, if it is then bitcoin will just have the same demand and you will have to divide its market cap and the number of coins to get its price.

However that is unnecessary for a long time I have thought that it is probably a better idea to display the value of bitcoin in terms of mBTC as a price of 32 dollars per mBTC is more relatable for people than a price of 32k for one bitcoin and if you think of bitcoin that way then we will have a supply of 21 billions mBTC.

If its like that we can not predict the even lumsum value of Btc but it should not be the same as current value of bitcoin. The high value of Btc is just because of limited supply if the supply is in billions then value of Btc would be very less than our expectations.

I doubt "doing some simple" math is going to help you find out the true value of the coins. The value of the coins doesn't depend on "numbers" only. Maybe if the max supply was a billion, people probably wouldn't have faith in bitcoin and the price might be much lower than expected. Or maybe the price might be much higher than today. More supply, more people owning bitcoin, more scattering of the coins, more trading and I guess with this, comes more stability?
Curious, what's the use of discussing about something that will never happen?

wrong.
the number 1 reason for bitcoin demand is its utility and features. people who buy bitcoin (apart from those who are with us for a short amount of time) are buying it because it is a decentralized currency that doesn't need the corrupt banks.
then the fact that it has a limited supply is like a bonus to them.


wrong.
the number 1 reason for ethereum price is its hype and the fact that there are a large number of scammers who keep creating tokens and an even larger number of newbies who want to gamble and buy those tokens. that is the only utility that ethereum offers! otherwise it is useless in real world.
the day this hype stops ethereum price drops to below $1

The main number 1 reason causing demand for Bitcoin is scarcity.

So you saying if there was a trillion btc supply then people would still want (demand) btc at $30k at the moment 

---

Number 1 reason for Ethereum demand is usage and utility.

Eth is being used like a foundation for all these De-Fi coins and for 1000s of altcoins that are dependant on Eth. So Eth is like a blood supply to these alts hence its $1200 price now per Eth is high now even though there's a infinity supply to it but it has that demand.

But then again Water is a highly used liquid in the world that still takes resources to clean/filter it before use, it is always in demand 24/7 because without it we die. I can say water is unlimited no fixed supply in gallons hence Water is cheap now. So how Eth is expensive now 

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

That is a pretty good estimate but OP's what if number is just 1 billion. The prices will be affected in a way but the left over bitcoin that hasn't been mined yet will be inconclusive, if bitcoin still follows the same principle then mining the 21,000,001th bitcoin will take more time than 21,000,000th bitcoin which could mean that going past that point would be fruitless for miners and could mean that the market will decide that the left overs will not be of use as the mining gets more difficult so they made a pseudo supply cap that will be followed.

supply and demand is the key to price flunctuation

yeah, things will become totally different

You can't even begin to compare bitcoin with some random low quality altcoin that is only getting pumped and dumped. The only reason why any altcoin specially these new ones have any value is because they were manipulated and pumped while bitcoin price comes from its realistic adoption. Even if bitcoin had 1 billion supply it would still be worth at least 100 times higher than any shitcoin.

Anything that's capped is scarce, true, but anything that isn't capped, is trash? untrue.

Something that is uncapped means 100% (or majority) of it can never be controlled by a single entity or a small group. It also makes it transaction friendly which a scarce commodity like Bitcoin fails to become.

We're all pro bitcoiners here but we can be pro bitcoiners and at the same time acknowledge the shortcomings of it w/o any conflict of interest in my opinion.

The supply of gold is neither pegged nor unfixed because new gold deposit could be found somewhere in the future. What if the gold deposit is so huge that it multiplies the supply of gold by a factor of 10, the price of gold will start to decline.

But, with btc the supply is capped at 21m, that means it can't increase nor decrease. This make btc better than gold.

I don't think that it is going to make much of a difference. Bitcoin is infinitely divisible, and therefore the total supply doesn't matter much. Whether the total supply is 21 million or 1 billion, the market cap is going to be the same. You can argue that Bitcoin may be regarded as less scarce and therefore the demand will go down. But there is a counter argument as well. Right now the unit price is quite high compared to other cryptos and a lot of noobs are reluctant to invest in Bitcoin as a result. IMO, both the factors should neutralize each other.

From economics, one of the core philosophy of money is that it is relatively scarce. When the volume of money in circulation is very high, it'll reduce the value and on the other hand when the volume of money in circulation is low it'll increase its value.

Hence, increasing the MS of btc will reduce its value...

You can not use chainlink as an example in this case, it has different price, different demand and different supply, it is another coin entirely and not bitcoin. Only bitcoin is used as an example if its circulatory supply is assumed to 18.6 billion instead of 18.6 million while other factors are assumed to be as it is now. Also know that the value of a coin is in its demand which will reflect in its marketcap, the value of a coins is in its marketcap.

If people embrace bitcoin the way it is now at reduced supply or increased supply, not the marketcap that will be affected, it is the price that will be affected, the lower the supply the higher the price, the higher the higher the supply the lower the marketcap. But anything that will affect the demand will affect the price also, the higher the demand the high the price, a coin with no demand will not have price increase and will be a dead coin.

Yes, if not demanded for. The 21 million max supply just make bitcoin perfect.

Never compare doge with bitcoin, bitcoin is more demanded for, have more marketcap, even if assumed bitcoin having the same supply as doge, the price will be higher than doge price.

You are wrong, the price will reduce if the supply increase, with the same demand.

I think the marketcap would be lower than the current one, because a billion of coins would be perceived as less scarce than the current max supply, even if in both cases the supply is limited. On the other hand, having lower total supply could also have negative effects, if it was too scarce, like let's say 10,000 bitcoins, it would be viewed more as a collectible rather than a currency or a store of value.

Lets look at a popular Altcoin right now that is Chainklink LINK.

Its price now is $24 and a max supply of 1 billion.

So if Chainlink were to pass $33 price today then as of today then you are saying Chainlink is better than Bitcoin for example?

This is correct where no matter you do changed up the supply if the demand would really be still the same then it would really be showing off the same effect.
It may be on different numbers but it wont really change a thing and also that not all coins had been mined though so calculations are presumptions.
We dont need for the entire supply to increase because the entire population can still able to own coins with fractions.

Honestly, I think it'd be just the current price divided by 47.619.. So around $700 today. I don't think the supply matters as much as the tech does, especially since Bitcoin would've then had 1B max supply since inception. It's like we'd think what 1 BTC would be worth if there were only 441k BTC max. The effect is imo the same.

With this kind of situation, all we have are theories and assumptions.  All the computation will have a huge error since we will never know what will be the market condition if Bitcoin has a Billion supply.  The given calculation on the earlier reply would give us a hint but it is also possible that there will be no change in prices.  People are sure to know how to complicate things with their wide imagination.  Why not just enjoy the volatility of Bitcoin and take profit from it  . 

Nothing would change. The market cap would be the same, and the price would just be lower by the factor of expansion: 21 mil / 1 bil = 0.021 * ~$33k = ~$693.

So price would be around $700 right now.

This is of course assuming everything else stayed the same in relation, so the initial mining reward would have been 50 BTC * (1 bil / 21 mil) and we'd still have nearly all of the supply mined at this point and mining would finish around 2140.

There might be some small psychological difference but probably not. 21 million coins is still a ton of coins, I don't think there'd be much of a psychological impact on the idea of scarcity if there were 1 billion, as both 21 million and 1 billion are very high numbers. If it was a difference of a low number like 1000 BTC supply cap versus 21 million BTC supply cap (and assuming the number of satoshis in one bitcoin was adjusted up so that there would still be roughly the same amount of satoshi's in the supply cap for purposes of transactions to have the ability to be extremely granular) that might have a psychological impact of making the supply seem even more scarce. But in general the scarcity model of Bitcoin has nothing to do with the actual number of Bitcoins available, it has to do with the halving which makes newly minted Bitcoin dwindle over time and the fact that there is a supply cap in the first place.

in fact, that's enough for bitcoin with a supply of 21 million. nothing less and nothing more. limited, rare and may not be allowed to be recycled or more precisely refurbished if it is used up. then with 21 million, the price will continue to rotate, and it will probably go down as time goes by and the owner dies.

The falling price of bitcoin will definitely happen and bitcoin is not one of the best coins at the moment. I think a coin that has a very large total supply only ends up being sampaj because it can't pump its very high prices. so bitcoin is currently in a good position because of limited supply and is in demand by many people

To say about total supply and price, you guys forgot about one decisive factor:

• How long will the total supply be released/ mined/ staked/ minted (not only for bitcoin)?

It is a decisive factor because the more years, decades from now, the higher population over the world so it will be the same story for bitcoin scarcity if the total population increases and reaches to the same rates of the increasing change in the new total supply.

With a bit less than 21 million bitcoin, it will be mined all as schedule in the year 2140. So with 1 billion, what if it will be mined all in the year of 7854 (5714 more years than 2140). I bet that the world population will rise more than 47.62 times (1 billion / 21 million = 47.62). It will do rise exponentially. Of course if the Earth will survive up to that year.

1000 million : 21 million = 47,61 ratio

Current price = $33,460.37

Bitcoin price with 1 billion max supply = $33,460.37 / 47,61 = $702.80

It's just a simple math where the demand is same right now with 18,609,881 BTC circulation supply, the fact is we can't know how's the demand when Bitcoin only in that's circulation with 1 billion max supply, I think many people don't have high demand of it since the circulation is very little than the max supply.

The total supply doesn't matter for the price.What matters is the mining difficulty+supply and demand.
If the mining difficulty remains the same,the total Bitcoin supply can be even 100 billion BTC,but it would still be that hard and expensive to mine Bitcoins,therefore the total BTC supply might never be reached.
If the total supply is 1 billion BTC,and the mining difficulty gets reduced significantly,then the BTC market will be flooded with newly mined Bitcoins and the Bitcoin price will go down,if the demand for BTC remains the same.
The Bitcoin price is all about supply,demand and mining costs.The total BTC supply doesn't matter.

The simple answer is that it's impossible to know. If this would be different, you don't know what else would have been different or somewhat affected by this difference, like the psychological factor for buying or selling Bitcoin.
I think that it's impossible to quantify what would be the price now. Imho it's not just simple math.

As simple as the total supply of the other Altcoins out there where they only get low prices because of their massive supplies and most of the time to resolve that issue they burn some tokens just to increase the price a little bit. Well, if bitcoin had such massive supplies I think the price will remain the same but we will trade more BTC in the market and most of the preferred to invest in because of its popularity and decentralized coin. Those investors prefered this kind of coins because they are simply anonymous and no SEC or whatsoever can manipulate the price if they do their so-called investigations.

You are correct, not only supply that determines the price of a coin, also demand is another main factor that determine the price of a coin. Also, we should have in mind that nothing will alter the supply of bitcoin instead will only result to a hardfork while bitcoin remain bitcoin with max supply of 21 million btc. All the calculations is just based on assumption of what the price of bitcoin will be if the max supply is 21 billion and yet having such demand and the likes that happened to bitcoin normally. It is just an assumption, just for the OP to understand how increase demand can reduce the price of a coin while others factors remain constant in the calculation which makes it not accurate.

All I can say is thankfully bitcoin has a capped supply. Most of the coins with close to infinite supply are trash. Bitcoin is scarce & that’s one of the main things that makes it so valuable.

There is a big difference between 21 million and 1 billion, here we are talking about a difference in max supply of almost 50 times. If Satoshi had set things up that way to be 1 billion BTC and left all the parameters the same, today we would have a little less than 900 million BTC in circulation, and you don't need to be any mathematical genius to understand how much that would affect the price.

It’s hard to say how much 1 BTC would be worth in that case, maybe a few hundred dollars or maybe a few dozen? What is certain is that Satoshi did not do anything by accident, but thought of everything very well before the whole thing became public.

Well, who knows. The dynamics would be different and the interest from others might be lower than you might think. It might worthless too.

Instead of asking about the supply, I think other questions such as what if Bitcoin uses PoS, or what if the block rewards continue to exist at 0.25 per block (or other random numbers) would be more interesting than guessing about the price of a single Bitcoin.


Keep in mind that this is just a strategy, but not a guarantee that demand will change. It might increase the price for a while and then get dumped without any recovery.

Marketcap = Price x Current btc supply in circulation

Price =             Marketcap
             Current btc supply in circulation

Bitcoin with 21 million max supply and currently 18.6 btc in current supply, marketcap recently will be:

Marketcap = 33000 x 18.6 million = $614 billion

But, if assumed the supply is 21 billion which means assuming 18.6 billion has been mined into circualtion already.

Then, Price=      614 billion
                                18.6 billion
                                    = $33

Bitcoin at $33000 with the current supply at 18.6 million will have a price of $33 if the current supply is at 18.6 billion if having max supply of 21 billion.

That is just an estimate which can make you to understand how increasing supply can reduce price, the value is not exactly accurate. Some coins with low price and too much supply can be burned in order to increase the price.

So essentially 5 50 times more Bitcoin, off the cuff response - it would still be limited supply!
The same reward structure would remain I guess so it would take
longer to mine 1,000,000,000.

What is appealing to investors at the moment is the fact that Bitcoin is a deflationary
asset compared to FIAT which is inflationary, Gold is the closest to Bitcoin but still is
or isnt limited [thats a different discussion] and is controlled.

If Satoshi had set the limit at 1Billion I dont think it would make a difference to the
way we think or the appeal of Bitcoin,

On the other hand if there was a consensus to change the limit from 21Million to 1Billion,
Well thats a different matter.

Then how much you think the price of 1 btc be today? Is it just doing some simple math to work out the price or is it more to it?

If 1/8th of the world population had 1 btc each then what you guys think the price will be?

There's a 1000 million in 1 billion.