Only if the majority of the miners agree there can be a protocol update. Electrum and Multibit have active development. A block size increase probably has effect on the source code.
If a protocol update was announced and not all miners agreed to the fork then the network would bifurcate. Electrum and Multibit have rapid development as you point out so I would think that if there is any compatibility issue (and there seems to be none for the example that I posted in the OP) then they would modify their code to "speak" with the core nodes on the correct fork of the Bitcoin blockchain.
At least that was my assumption.
Hmm it could be possible, if it will be an hard fork I think it cannot exist two or more "blockchain" at the same time. So it will be a really 'discomfort' to all the users that "are not user friendly" with bitcoin. However if it can be possible 2 fork of the chain at the same time, what it will happen if I'll send 1 btc from the FORK-A to your address (bitcoin core updated) in the FORK-B?