I'm a little surprised the Network Hash Rate isn't Lower

stompix

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Jambler.io

Quote from: European Central Bank on February 07, 2018, 02:35:12 PM

at this stage us mere nobodies have zero idea what the economics of mining look like any more. billions of dollars are flying around and there are no doubt many secret deals and developments. we also have no idea who many of these miners are or what their long term plans are.

mining is now a foreign country for almost all bitcoiners.

Not even close to zero idea, most like 90% of the picture.

You have some public data from which you can draw lines and limits.
One is the difficulty, which tells you and estimate on how much hashrate there is and how many miners can be plugged in at this moment.
One other is the reward, adding the lowest value of 2 cents per khw and a decent 12 months ROI you can also get an estimate on the maximum numbers of miners that is viable to have working.

Here is one model:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/estimating-the-energypower-consumption-of-the-bitcoin-network-694401

d57heinz

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Bitcoin Talks Bullshit Walks

Quote from: Sandal_Hat on February 13, 2018, 02:26:21 AM

Thats not my point. It is not about efficiency. Even if u buy the most efficient machines 6 months or 1 year or 1.5 years ago, u would have made much more money if u just bought bitcoin instead. Why? Because mining difficulty goes up too much faster.

Yes I completely understand that. What I’m trying to say to you is that I’m using them for heat for winter. Instead pissing natural gas out the window I’m at least getting back some btc for the heat I’m wasting. That’s what I’m trying to say. I know how the mining works. It’s always better to buy the coin then the machine. Trust me hard lesson learned here.

BR

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to remove multiple nested quotes.)

Sandal_Hat

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Quote from: d57heinz on February 12, 2018, 07:32:55 PM

yes i fully agree on the ones that arent eficient. I use them for heat till spring. with my ltc sillverfish @90 mhs ive got a few ltc over the winter and some heat.. also added to my btc hodling stash aswell. Im knocked down to almost nothing anymore. when my miners die ill prolly just hang on to the coins and see where this all leads,. Ive been devoting most my time into my business. Screen printing can really take up your time. Along with that we have a 60 inch HP latex we make signs banners wraps etc. I had a lot of fun mining and learned a lot. BUt i knew sooner later this would turn corporate only. Its always been ones with the money get the furthest. Ive always had to work damn hard for everything. Im used to being built on top of so that the whole of the system can thrive. Thats just how things seem to usually play out. With my business i at least feel im a little bit more in control of my future. Ive said it time and time again. Dont buy gear anymore. its time of ico and just putting money where mouth is and buy the coin. Most of the miners when ran at home dont survive. They have to be ran in datacenter type environment or they just dont last. It is what it is.

Best Regards
Doug

Thats not my point. It is not about efficiency. Even if u buy the most efficient machines 6 months or 1 year or 1.5 years ago, u would have made much more money if u just bought bitcoin instead. Why? Because mining difficulty goes up too much faster.

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to remove multiple nested quotes.)

d57heinz

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Bitcoin Talks Bullshit Walks

Quote from: Sandal_Hat on February 12, 2018, 02:32:10 AM

It is wrong to assume that bitcoin price will go up alot. And if u are going to assume that, it is better to just buy coins than mine them since u get more coins faster. Some machines will never break even as it is because the difficulty is too high. Thus, just buying bitcoin gives u more bitcoin and u get it faster than mining, allowing u to capture more upward gains.

yes i fully agree on the ones that arent eficient. I use them for heat till spring. with my ltc sillverfish @90 mhs ive got a few ltc over the winter and some heat.. also added to my btc hodling stash aswell. Im knocked down to almost nothing anymore. when my miners die ill prolly just hang on to the coins and see where this all leads,. Ive been devoting most my time into my business. Screen printing can really take up your time. Along with that we have a 60 inch HP latex we make signs banners wraps etc. I had a lot of fun mining and learned a lot. BUt i knew sooner later this would turn corporate only. Its always been ones with the money get the furthest. Ive always had to work damn hard for everything. Im used to being built on top of so that the whole of the system can thrive. Thats just how things seem to usually play out. With my business i at least feel im a little bit more in control of my future. Ive said it time and time again. Dont buy gear anymore. its time of ico and just putting money where mouth is and buy the coin. Most of the miners when ran at home dont survive. They have to be ran in datacenter type environment or they just dont last. It is what it is.

Best Regards
Doug

(Moderator's note: This post was edited by frodocooper to remove a nested quote.)

Sandal_Hat

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Quote from: d57heinz on February 11, 2018, 05:46:52 PM

These posts always crack me up. Ahhh the sky is falling. Price dropped mining must be over. Those that think that just don’t understand what’s going on. . Bitcoin Mania Triggers Miner Influx to Rural Washington - The Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/rural-washington-is-a-hot-spot-for-bitcoin-miners-1518354001. I’ve been monitoring 8btc. They are claiming 100 exa by years end. Check out this site. It’s a combined hashrate of both networks BTC bch. http://Https://Fork.lol/pow/hashrate. Then checkout www.bitcoin.sipa.be at the trend since beginning. I’m still running s2s3 (would do more but limited power)because I know in a few years the coins it mines now will be priceless. Right now it’s turn whatever you got on before the 100 megawatt farms start turning on left and right.

BR

Edit. Sorry about the wsj report. I didn’t realize when I shared the link that it would make you pay for the story.

Here’s a little taste. “Four of the mining inquiries that Chelan County’s utility has received since October are for 100 megawatts each—that is enough power for more than 50 hospitals, and building the infrastructure for each mine could cost more than $40 million.”

It is wrong to assume that bitcoin price will go up alot. And if u are going to assume that, it is better to just buy coins than mine them since u get more coins faster. Some machines will never break even as it is because the difficulty is too high. Thus, just buying bitcoin gives u more bitcoin and u get it faster than mining, allowing u to capture more upward gains.

d57heinz

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Bitcoin Talks Bullshit Walks

These posts always crack me up. Ahhh the sky is falling. Price dropped mining must be over. Those that think that just don’t understand what’s going on. . Bitcoin Mania Triggers Miner Influx to Rural Washington - The Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/rural-washington-is-a-hot-spot-for-bitcoin-miners-1518354001. I’ve been monitoring 8btc. They are claiming 100 exa by years end. Check out this site. It’s a combined hashrate of both networks BTC bch. Www.Fork.lol/pow/hashrate. Then checkout www.bitcoin.sipa.be at the trend since beginning. I’m still running s2s3 (would do more but limited power)because I know in a few years the coins it mines now will be priceless. Right now it’s turn whatever you got on before the 100 megawatt farms start turning on left and right.

BR

Edit. Sorry about the wsj report. I didn’t realize when I shared the link that it would make you pay for the story.

Here’s a little taste. “Four of the mining inquiries that Chelan County’s utility has received since October are for 100 megawatts each—that is enough power for more than 50 hospitals, and building the infrastructure for each mine could cost more than $40 million.”

digger888

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Quote from: wavelengthsf on February 09, 2018, 12:06:21 PM

Why would you write a business plan at $10k BTC, when that was just a pipe dream until 3 months ago?

I'd say a business that doesn't have a firm grasp of the reality of the market they're in is destined to fail.

I wrote my business plan with BTC being $3K, not $10K but I came across several business plans with BTC at $10K.

wavelengthsf

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Quote from: digger888 on February 08, 2018, 10:46:21 PM

Cash flow is extremely important for everyone i.e. little guys and also big guys. Does anyone remember this?
...
Most business plans are written with bitcoin priced at $10K or higher. The weak miners will go belly up first if BTC continues to be under $10K. Because they are selling BTC to keep afloat; hence, the BTC price will be depressed for the coming months.

Why would you write a business plan at $10k BTC, when that was just a pipe dream until 3 months ago?

I'd say a business that doesn't have a firm grasp of the reality of the market they're in is destined to fail.

A.Delaney

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At this stage its nice to be a small miner able to afford the power bill without cashing in btc to pay for it. Plus no big data center to pay for , insure, or owe money on miners.

digger888

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Cash flow is extremely important for everyone i.e. little guys and also big guys. Does anyone remember this?

Bitcoin Mining Firm KnCMiner Declares Bankruptcy https://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-declares-bankruptcy-cites-upcoming-bitcoin-subsidy-halving/

For the guys that expanded too aggressive, they should be hurting now but it will take at least 6 -9 months before they run out of money. Currently, they are dumping bitcoin to keep the lights on. Most business plans are written with bitcoin priced at $10K or higher. The weak miners will go belly up first if BTC continues to be under $10K. Because they are selling BTC to keep afloat; hence, the BTC price will be depressed for the coming months.

rifleman74

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4 s9's 2 821's

Quote from: sidehack on February 06, 2018, 12:41:37 PM

Quote from: IanWorthington on February 06, 2018, 11:11:18 AM

Quote from: sidehack on February 06, 2018, 09:57:50 AM

That statement is useless without a hashing efficiency. Pays the power cost on what miner? Folks were mining on S5s during this bubble.

My bad. S9. Is there any more efficient currently?

Not really, but there's a whole lot that's less efficient. How much of the network would disappear if the only thing profitable to run was the absolute most efficient gear?

Problem is that if you take off the little guys, you have to take off 3 S7 for every S9....and so on for the smaller miners.

European Central Bank

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at this stage us mere nobodies have zero idea what the economics of mining look like any more. billions of dollars are flying around and there are no doubt many secret deals and developments. we also have no idea who many of these miners are or what their long term plans are.

mining is now a foreign country for almost all bitcoiners.

Sandal_Hat

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It wont fall when new more powerful miners are coming in. And samsung wants in also...

sidehack

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Curmudgeonly hardware guy

Okay but what about everyone else?

Anyway the post in question has been edited for clarity so further discussion is unnecessary.

IanWorthington

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Quote from: sidehack on February 06, 2018, 12:41:37 PM

Not really, but there's a whole lot that's less efficient. How much of the network would disappear if the only thing profitable to run was the absolute most efficient gear?

Surely the bulk of the network is the 5c/kWh chinese miners? Why would they use anything apart from S9s?

sidehack

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Curmudgeonly hardware guy

Quote from: IanWorthington on February 06, 2018, 11:11:18 AM

Quote from: sidehack on February 06, 2018, 09:57:50 AM

That statement is useless without a hashing efficiency. Pays the power cost on what miner? Folks were mining on S5s during this bubble.

My bad. S9. Is there any more efficient currently?

Not really, but there's a whole lot that's less efficient. How much of the network would disappear if the only thing profitable to run was the absolute most efficient gear?

A.Delaney

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At $.11/Kwh my S7 is pretty much done profiting at this point. Its basically breaking even at the moment. Ill let it run though since I don't cash in btc to pay my power bill.

IanWorthington

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Quote from: sidehack on February 06, 2018, 09:57:50 AM

That statement is useless without a hashing efficiency. Pays the power cost on what miner? Folks were mining on S5s during this bubble.

My bad. S9. Is there any more efficient currently?

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: alh on February 06, 2018, 05:48:54 AM

Quote from: Bucc5207 on February 05, 2018, 11:37:51 PM

I kinda thought bandwagon, too. Crikey. 20% increase since this thread started 6 hours ago. That's something like 300,000 S9s. Anybody notice the lights flickering?

What is the 20% that you are referring to? It's important to understand that there isn't some kind of "global hash rate meter". Any website that provides an ESTIMATE of the current hash rate is doing that based on recent block solve rate. In other words how quickly are blocks being solved. From that, the estimated hash rate is calculated. How many blocks to you use in that calculation? One, Ten, One Hundred? The difficulty adjustment is based on how long it took to solve 2016 blocks. During that interval, there can be wild swings, even if the final adjustment after 2016 blocks is quite small (even zero).

Of course there is new gear being switched on all the time. Stuff that was sold and just arrived (from Bitmain, Ebay, Bitfury, where ever) is going to get turned on. Nobody buys a miner and then doesn't switch it on for at least a while. It takes quite a while for miners, large or small, to turn off mining gear they have already paid for based strictly on BTC price.

https://btc.com/stats/diff

507,964 2018-02-06 08:34:49

506,016 2018-01-25 01:48:20

1948 blocks in 12 days and about 7 hours

12 x 144 = 1728
7 x 6 = 42

1770 = 0%

1948/1770 = 1.1005 which is 10.05%

of course switching large amounts to BCC/BCH can alter it.

current number mean the s-7 and the avalon 741 will be retired soon.

at 6 cent power an avalon 741 makes
at 4 cent power an avalon 741 makes

at 6 cent power an s7 makes
at 4 cent power an s7 makes

If I recall Hash Nest charges 8 cents so the s7 makes

what does this mean diff will rise or price will drop until the s-7 is done

and the s-7 is very close to dead at 8 cent price

sidehack

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Curmudgeonly hardware guy

That statement is useless without a hashing efficiency. Pays the power cost on what miner? Folks were mining on S5s during this bubble.

IanWorthington

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BTC at usd 1k pays the power costs at 5c/kWh and current difficulty [on an S9]. I wouldn't expect to see any significant slowdown in mining until we get near those levels.

Par Avion

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There are a handful of theories floating around that the diff adj is being "attacked" ie: forced to keep rising to price out a lot of people from mining. Some of these theories have a little credibility, probably worth poking around some.

alh

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Quote from: Bucc5207 on February 05, 2018, 11:37:51 PM

I kinda thought bandwagon, too. Crikey. 20% increase since this thread started 6 hours ago. That's something like 300,000 S9s. Anybody notice the lights flickering?

What is the 20% that you are referring to? It's important to understand that there isn't some kind of "global hash rate meter". Any website that provides an ESTIMATE of the current hash rate is doing that based on recent block solve rate. In other words how quickly are blocks being solved. From that, the estimated hash rate is calculated. How many blocks to you use in that calculation? One, Ten, One Hundred? The difficulty adjustment is based on how long it took to solve 2016 blocks. During that interval, there can be wild swings, even if the final adjustment after 2016 blocks is quite small (even zero).

Of course there is new gear being switched on all the time. Stuff that was sold and just arrived (from Bitmain, Ebay, Bitfury, where ever) is going to get turned on. Nobody buys a miner and then doesn't switch it on for at least a while. It takes quite a while for miners, large or small, to turn off mining gear they have already paid for based strictly on BTC price.

A.Delaney

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Well bitmains sales are going to drop off if the price BTC stays down long enough. It’s falling like a rock right now. I guess we will know when an S9 is no longer sold out. This might put a hurtin on Canaan’s 821 sales.

Raymond_B

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Just Getting Started...

Quote from: lossol on February 06, 2018, 12:02:59 AM

Maybe those idiots on eBay that paid 5-6k for an S9 back in December/January will be selling them for $1400?

That is **exactly** the equivalent to the plebs that bought at $19k and sold at $11k...

lossol

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Maybe those idiots on eBay that paid 5-6k for an S9 back in December/January will be selling them for $1400?

Bucc5207

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Quote from: Raymond_B on February 05, 2018, 11:40:26 PM

There's a certain amount of inertia that will have to be overcome. Bitmain certainly is not slowing down shipping. They are clearing the shelves as fast as possible.

So I've heard. Well, maybe we'll see a bunch of low-priced S9s on eBay before long.

Raymond_B

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Just Getting Started...

Quote from: Bucc5207 on February 05, 2018, 11:37:51 PM

I kinda thought bandwagon, too. Crikey. 20% increase since this thread started 6 hours ago. That's something like 300,000 S9s. Anybody notice the lights flickering?

There's a certain amount of inertia that will have to be overcome. Bitmain certainly is not slowing down shipping. They are clearing the shelves as fast as possible.

Bucc5207

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I kinda thought bandwagon, too. Crikey. 20% increase since this thread started 6 hours ago. That's something like 300,000 S9s. Anybody notice the lights flickering?

Raymond_B

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Just Getting Started...

Just like the herd started buying BTC in November, everybody and their brother decided they were gonna mine to make magic free money. Well, just as the dip is shaking out the herd investors, it will shake out the people who thought they could park an S9 in their office...

Bucc5207

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Based on previous replies, I get why it's not going down. But it baffles me that it keeps going up. I just looked at the Bitcoin Stats site, and it shows 24-25 EH, time between blocks 6.9 minutes! Guaranteed difficulty increase again this week. Where is this coming from? Huh

lossol

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Well, difficulty will be lower in a few months if this is the start of the bitcoin bubble bursting. if it's anything like the previous bubbles, it's going to last 1-2 years. So the big mining farms will start shutting down unless they have free electricity. Then the difficulty will start going down.

Everything was rosy in 2017 including the stock market. People thought they were geniuses trading stocks or cryptos and making money hand over fist. Well, the party's over and it's time to pay the piper.

digger888

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Give it six to nine months when companies go belly up due to cash flow issues. Most companies have 2-3 months of working capital then they would have to liquidate whatever they mine or to sell their equipment to pay the rent.

fanatic26

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Most people dont think the sky is falling after 3-4 days of price drops and pull the plug on entire datacenters. You realize how many machines would have to be switched off to make a dent in the global rate right?

A.Delaney

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It actually came back up a little bit to over 20EH. Im sure most people consider this fall to be temporary. I do. I figured the people that were in it just to make the easy money would have pulled the plug by now. At this price its almost better to just buy btc than mine it for an investment.

Topic: I'm a little surprised the Network Hash Rate isn't Lower (Read 814 times)