Topic: Imagine 10000 (Read 4796 times)

Any of you have ever read about a Ressource Based Economy ?

+1


So im no one ?  I still spend BTC each month, whatever the price is, and I always enjoy doing it. 

and a market cap expressed in hyperinflating fiat dont mean much !

IMO, 10k within few years is realistic.  A lot more in a decade if it goes mainstream, or if a country like China start buying their oil with BTC !

Wont touch my cold storge under 10k for sure..

You're still stuck thinking within the existing model, as if that model could not be changed/adapted to fit our modern digital world with a digital currency like bitcoin better. The powers that be may not like it, but change is inevitable and it is coming from the bottom up now because the top is unable and unwilling to change things themselves.

People in the ETF will put their retirement money in.  Someday, they will retire.  They will then take their money out to live off of.

Also, at some point, whether it be $10,000 (minimum if you ask me), $40,000 (like the Winklevoss twins think) or $300,000 (rpietila), it will level off and become stable.  At that point, it makes a lot of sense to just spend them since the volatility will be gone.

Please define what, precisely, "economic growth" means in practical terms. Give examples.

The only reason that North Korea has high employment (at least in the "official" state books) is that people are "employed" by the Worker's Party (but their only real job is roaming the hillsides searching for tree bark to boil and eat). I agree -- from a philosophical standpoint -- that the ultimate goal of life is to live a peaceful existence with personal fulfillment. But there are certain realities that must be carried out from an economic standpoint to attain this state. Without economic growth, no new jobs would be created, and those existing jobs would eventually become obsolete as uncertainty caused people to curtail their spending and freeze up market activity. The goal of living without worry about where our next meal will come from and paying for our house and mortgages is noble, but the path to hell is paved with good intentions.

Well what do you think the goal of society should be? Is it employment and a lack of social strife? At the risk of sounding like a bleeding-heart liberal, I think it should be peace and personal fulfillment. Which starts with everyone not having to worry about obtaining food, clothing, and shelter. And then having as many people as possible pursue their passions and do what it is that makes them happy. Having 100% employment isn't even vaguely correlated with those goals. Just look at North Korea for an example of high employment and awful living conditions. And economic trade (such as GDP) has a lousy correlation with the ability to feed oneself, as Miz4r pointed out earlier. GDP is useful as a general measure to understand hthe quantity of trading happening in an economy, but doesn't tell me anything about the quality of that trading - whether or not each side is significantly better off due to an exchange of goods and services.

Technological advancements don't necessarily imply growth. You can still develop science and technology in a balanced economy to achieve better efficiency. Basically, you can do the same for less or do more with the same.

To put the value, growth and eventual spending point of bitcoin into simple terms: as long as new people are buying bitcoins, the price will go up. When new people are no longer entering the system, or at a greatly reduced rate, the value will stabilize and spending will begin. Therefore as long as the value is rising, hoarding is the correct answer if your goal is to maximize the value of your investment and the future utility of bitcoin.

Exactly my thoughts! The current fiat money are like hot stones - you are forced to get rid of them as fast as possible, in fact, most western states encourage credit systems to enslave citizens - where you get rid of your fiat *before you even get it* and are forced to work to get what you already spent... Free people need bitcoins.

Wrong. But I guess you can't help it, not everyone is able to think outside of their box.

Not really. The fact remains that unless your ultimate goal is to return to a small, self sufficient hunter/gatherer society, economies must grow in order to prosper. As more people are born, grow up, and become adults, there must be jobs for them in order to contribute to society and attain wealth. Wealth is then created and distributed amongst members of society through the act of trade. Without growth, unemployment and social strife always ensure.

Well said!!

I applaud you. I thought the same but had failed to make the connection between BTC and the money needed for the new era. An era that Mr Money Moustache described beautifully:

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2013/07/16/a-badass-utopia/

We need a cultural reprogramming!

SAVING IS SEXY! 

+1

Well said, hopefully more and more people will be able to step outside of the matrix and see it for what it really is. A true economy that is healthy doesn't need to grow. Don't believe all the newspapers and so called economic experts who want to make us think that without a growing economy we are all doomed. Yeah the current financial system we have surely depends on growth to sustain its debt and pay the interest, but it's an unhealthy and self-destructive system that is rotten to the core and it just has to go.

I can.

What you (and many people I guess) need to realize is that our current financial system has a built in imperative for economic growth. Not sure how many people understand what is meant by "economic growth". It means supplying more products and services which can be bought for money to the economy. Thus when I grow some tomatoes on my balcony and consume them, we have no economic growth. But if I sell them to my neighbor for 10$ the GDP just grew by 10$. Does this tell us anything about whether the whole society participating in this economy is better of or not?

Do not forget that economic growth is imperative to the monetary system. It can not function without it. Thus it encourages consumption. It prefers a situation where you buy a 1K$ laptop every 2 years and a 2K@ fridge every 5 years to a situation where you buy both for the same price and they both last you 15 years. Besides the devastating consequences like planned obsolescence of consumer goods it is pure insanity to demand perpetual "growth" on a planet with finite resources. At this rate the system will burn through all the resources and eventually collapse or be forced into something more sustainable. The point is we can't have a sustainable economy without a monetary system which creates an incentive to save ("hoard" if you want to cast it in a bad light) as opposed to an incentive to spend.

I applaud BTC for providing such a model and am happy to see all the HOARDERS saving their money and thinking twice before making a purchase. The consumer fetishism needs to go.

You're saying economic growth is a bad thing? Can you extrapolate that logic a bit further for me? I agree that it's unsustainable; afterall, everything comes to an end eventually. But unless your ideal plan is to live in a hunter/gatherer society of 50 people in the Amazon, then economic growth is necessary for a healthy economy. I'm sure many in Greece would agree.

+1

Maybe getting rid of the BUY MORE JUNK attitude is a blessing. And to the idea that economies must consume more and more and more forever in order to succeed is not only absurd, its destructive and unsustainable.

10000 is eminently possible if the current adoption curve continues for another 3 to 5 years

Big if...

My lifespan is a limiting factor on my ability to hoard coins. If I don't manage to ever benefit from them, my stupid kid will probably have a good time spending it on hookers and blow. It will get spent eventually one way or another.

I don't think that's a problem at these early stages, and I don't think it will become a problem either. I ordered a pizza last week online with bitcoins because I thought it was cool that they accept it as a valid form of payment. And there are charity or crowd funding projects now that accept bitcoin and I think those will be used more and more because no money is lost through middle men this way and you can get the money there straight away. There are some awesome projects on the way and I think people who have bitcoins will also be spending them more and more. But right now we're still too early in the adoption phase for it to be very useful as a currency, but I'm not too worried about the future.

Well, that's the paradox... they can't become an established form of currency if nobody is spending them. People need to spend them before that can happen, and indications are that network transaction volume has stayed essentially level since last spring. Some account this (at least partially) to the closing of the Silk Road, but it's certainly not a sign of a growing economy...

My coins are worth 145,232,764,126,758,649,443 USD and I am not selling OR spending until then!

I'm not saying a 100x market cap is impossible, but I've been seeing this quoted since their interview yesterday as a sort of 'confirmation' that bitcoin is going to explode beyond anyone's wildest dreams. Let's just not forget that the Winklevoss twins bought an $11 million stake in bitcoins and are trying to set up an exchange where people can buy/sell coins for a fee, so the twins definitely have a large financial interest in this...

Who said anything about not wanting to use their bitcoins? I will use them once bitcoin is an established and acknowledged currency you can buy pretty much everything you need with. That doesn't mean I should want to sell them for paper fiat currency now or in the future, that's not a very good use of bitcoins imo.

Winklevoss are predicting a market cap of 400 Billion.

That's 100x what its currently at. 

That implies a per BTC value of $40,000.

So according to Winklevoss boys ... they're calling that the top of the top for Bitcoin.

Others like the Ex Facebook exec stated that it could easily surpass Gold's market cap, making it $400,000 per coin ....

And that's only the tip of the iceberg if it goes worldwide adoption.

If none of you plan on actually using your bitcoins, how do you expect them to ever be successful as a form of currency? It's a paradox. You don't actually think you're the only ones who will hoard them, do you?

As long as prices keep shooting up, more or less everyone will hold on to them (not that I blame them)... but it's something that needs to be acknowledged. It seems nobody really even cares about the future of bitcoin, other than potentially getting rich from them. Which is the ultimate irony, given that many bitcoin adherents believe the dollar and other FIAT currencies are mismanaged by governments and fat cat, greedy Wall Street types.

+2

10 000$ is bananas. I will never sell my coins to hoard paper. At some point I might exchange some coins to gold however but just a small fraction.

1 BTC = 1 000 000$ at the current value of $. Based on supply of gold and bitcoin, Raoul Pal estimates bitcoin ought to be worth 700 ounces of gold.

The bitcoin echo chamber at work once again... every time the market is in an upswing people lose their heads. It's fun to dream, but just don't lose your shirts.

10K only? this rocket goes to 1m+.

this is bad speculating... its really not THAT hard to believe bitcoin can be 10K each one day. If bitcoin realizes one or two of its big usecases in a meaningful way, price will necessarily have to be in this very serious range.  

If they constantly appreciate, a lot of people will sell them. Try this thought experiment: Someone invests 10% ($5000) of their savings in bitcoin @400. In a few months, it goes to $4000, so now the bitcoins are worth $50k in fiat, which is more than 50% of the portfolio. At this point, wouldn't you be tempted to sell some bitcoin? What if they became worth $1M ? Would you leave $1M in bitcoin or be tempted to "lock" your gains, diversity etc. ?

Do you mean that people would only buy what truly satisfied them? That is a very good problem to have!

+1

The problem is that if they constantly appreciate, no one will ever spend them.
Then it becomes a bit like the Tulips, and it will crash to the ground.

I would rather see a bit coin economy grow, then the price can appreciate slowly up to 10,000 or whatever

People often ask when I will sell my btc.

My answer is always the same: I will never sell them. I will spend them when the concept of selling them has become obsolete.

But we are not at the end of volatility. Bitcoin is working to 1000$ like facebook to the 1 000 000 account. To 10Mio. or 100Mio. was no big deal for facebook. Same with Bitcoin I think. Except some big desaster happens (like SHA256 get's cracked).

You are all pricing BTC with a fiat money. This is so wrong! The great question would be:

How many of BTCs needed to get a 100 ounces of gold or how many of BTCs needed to buy a 50 acre of land in KY or WA?  True value of BTC could be seen with this approach.

Holding till ~40k   

There is no way it is impossible.
A wide adoption can increase the price over 10K.

The question is, can Bitcoin handle all this power ? IT'S OVER 9000 !!!

I think we'll at least test $10,000 once in our lifetime.

Take it a little further... Imagine when entire countries see the light and begin to rely on bitcoins to store national wealth rather than gold.
And a rather significant fractions will have become lost by then.
$1000,000 easily!

He said "imagine". I do it all the time with the lottery. You should try it. Great way to kill time on my public bus commutes around the city. ;-)

sorry but how mining could be unprofitable with price of $10000 (and probably still rising) per bitcoin?

The same 10 minutes per confirmation as always?

100 million dollar pizza.

Mining difficulty is adjusted to the hash rate of the network. If 90% of miners dropped out the difficulty would drop, which would yield a bigger return for the remaining miners. Not an issue in other words. There will always be miners, even when all they get is the transfer fees.

How about mining gets sooooo unprofitable that most (99.999%) people just stop doing that.
How long would a transaction of this many satoshi take in this case - hypothetically just a couple of computers still run the software, for the sake of it - ?

imagining the first "10 000 is boring" posts. 

Less coins available=higher value of the remaining ones.

Wonder if this was an intended feature?

the market "cap" will never be correct due to all the missing/destroyed/too afraud to spend due to theft coins etc

I'm with the Winkelvii
100x now so....
$40,000

I'm imagining it as we speak. However, unfortunately, that does not seem to be having the desired effect.

I wouldn't like 10,000 much. The volatility would probably be mostly gone and I make much more profit by trading than just holding.

I want to come back to these threads when bitcoins are in the $5000+ range... there will be so many Dragonball Z references...

10k?

It's over 9000!

This would mean a market cap of ~200 billion.

This is certainly not impossible if bitcoin becomes a popular method of storing value, but still certainly a "black swan event".

I'm holding for $7,000,000

10,000 is chicken feed

Only 10k? It's gotta be worth more than that if it's widely used.

It's too much! 1000 is ok, but 10,000?? Let's be serious.

Imagine if bitcoins were worth 10000 dollars. How nice wouldn't that be? Do you think it will ever happen?