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Guilty as charged
I've been lurking for a few weeks, doing my best to educate myself. I had heard of ASIC technology before I heard of BFL, and I want in. But I think that they are not the company to deal with. OTOH, if they start shipping for real, I might change my mind. Though if I did, I'd fly down and buy it in person.
@ AmDD, so you think he's following in the footsteps of Phineas Taylor Barnum, eh?
I'd like to think that myself, but there are some major problems with his approach if he is. PTB was very eloquent. He did indeed (ab)use almost every logical fallacy in debate with his detractors and supporters, but there was a huge difference.
He was slick. Inaba isn't. While Barnum's premise that there is no such thing as negative publicity does hold up to scrutiny in some ways, it really don't work if you don't deliver the product. Even Barnum's enemies couldn't say he didn't run a valuable circus.
My thought is that BFL would have engendered a LOT less enmity in their potential customer base had they just bit down on their pride and admitted they severely overestimated their abilities with regards to TIME. As it stands now, there is tremendous interest in ASIC, and several companies that have the juice are at least considering jumping in. Not to mention a million fly-by-night operators. If BFL doesn't do two things near to immediately, all the publicity in the world, negative or positive, will not change the outcome. Those two things are producing a product and severe damage control. Because if just one company beats them to market in a serious manner, they are sunk. So far ASICMiner is playing a "string 'em along" game. That's not really a bad plan considering their current market position, and it leaves them in the position of being ABLE to undercut most competition in the future, should they care to do so. Avalon seems to be out of their depth, business wise, but are at least delivering. They too could relatively easily expand their operations and crush BFL if they don't QUICKLY get to market.
There are also several startups that could conceivably do it. A good engineer can design the chips. They are, as I understand it, several orders of magnitude simpler than a CPU and not much if any more complex than RAM. Students design both every day. So it's mostly a matter of finding a cost effective way to produce them. One such way that's already done with other things is to put them on the same wafer with other devices, using up "free" space that bigger or more complex things leave, thus turning a small loss into a small gain on the manufacturing side. Just about any semiconductor company could do that. The initial setup is a bit expensive, but if they were already producing a mask for something else, it would be a minor revision.
I am NOT an engineer, I'm a hobbyist. Yet I know these things, or at least enough of them to see the possibilities. If BFL is a legit company, they need to SERIOUSLY reorganize. For what it's worth, I think they are legit, just out of their depth. But this Inaba character does NOT help their reputation at all.