Topic: Incoming stock crash? (Read 5070 times)

It is very difficult to predict a stock crash. If this were possible then people would take advance of this information, buy put options the day before the cash and profit massively.

I don't think that the stock market will crash any time soon. It is a much larger market than in 1929 and there are too many support structures in place to prevent collapse. Even if it collapses it doesn't necessarily entail a major disruption in the economy.

My opinion is that stocks in general are fundamentally not an attractive investment right now. An exception might be resource (esp. precious metal) stocks.

That doesn't imply that a stock crash in a strict sense is looming. A scenario like the chart posted by BitDreams is possible. That would mean stocks being slowly devalued through inflation without a major price change on a nominal level.

I don't know what will happen, but I would not invest in the general market at the current valuation.

The stock market may very well increase some more, but you could say that it is risky. Not in the calculated, insurance company sense, but more like the black swan event, that happens so seldom you can not calculate it. Anyway, if this happens, it is not safe to think that bitcoin price will take advantage of that. It could go down with the stock market. It depends on how the market understands bitcoin, as an investment akin to any other security, or as money. Currently the outsiders (which outnumber the current users), think it is an investment.

Inevitabley the markets will crash. They always do. Human psychology moves from fear to greed and then back.

Right now, the atmosphere seems to have a lot of fear. No end of articles talking about a correction or crash in the press. So I think we are still in the "fear" zone. As soon as people forget about crashes, we'll be back into greed area, and then the crash risk is imminent.

However, in the last 2 big market crashes, the US gov't has always been able to engineer a recovery using interest rates and money printing. The big worry now is that - if they don't get things back to normal before the pendulum swings - there will be no tools left to them when a crash occurs.

However, if they manage to hike rates without any big disasters, that could be avoided.

So goes the conventional theory. Basically, the economy has been in complete unchartered territory since 2009, so there's a lot of if's and could's. The best answer is that nobody knows how it will work out , just that it will be interesting to see either way how things go.

can't tell if this is sarcasm, i think if you look closer you'll find that history most certainly repeats itself, our lives are just a bunch of cylces, we live we die, empires rise and empires fall, people in power abuse it, you can probably find a ton of people who have taken the same life path as you before

I don't see any point with checking current figures with old ones, history never repeats itself. Even people study history to "avoid previous mistakes", but, agree, after WWI happened WWII. I like Nassim Taleb philosophy.

We may someday look back and define current events as ww3, pick any random starting point since the official end of ww2. It's hard to see the difference between conflict and war these days.

Instead, I like to imagine the effects of bitcon on the world when fully adopted.  We may only get a 25% correction (instead of 50%) and markets (when looking back from say.. 2020) appear to have maintained a long correction, with a new bull market like we saw starting in 1983. A cycles / timing guy I follow - http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/ has a major market pivot of Oct. 1, 2015 so that might be the place to start looking for the next global bull market.

This is the year I believe.

US needs to print more money, or sell weapons & drugs.

Oh, right, they're already doing that, lol


Why I made this topic is: Been reading a lot lately. All I see is WW3.
Or just "another" attack from a caveman from somewhere in Pakistan

I believe that there will be a crash in U.S. equities market before the current president leaves office. This allows for 'the top' as far out as 2016.

I was wrong in my projection ( I drew this chart in 2010 and projected a new all time high in 2016 and not before ) but it still allows for 'the top' to occur before 2016.

Many of my charts have way too much noise on them for others to pick out much meaning from them without a lot of explanation but mostly I'm just looking for easily recognizable patterns that anyone can pick out. Usually the less drawings I display on the charts the easier it is to see these patterns. It's as much art as charting.

So what you are looking at is 3 fib-arcs plus one Andrews Pitchfork. The first fib-arc was drawn by selecting the top in 2000 and then pulling the drawing tool down to the bottom in 2002. That fib-arc is represented by solid lines. What is most interesting about this first solid fib-arc (centering around the bottom of 2002) is that the later bottom in 2009 intersects with the 100% arc that was pulled from the top in 2000. The 1.236% calculation of the solid fib-arc also interacts with the top in 2007 (not exact, but close enough considering 20 years monthly chart data). This has been the most interesting arc and its 1.5% and 1.681% and 2.0% lines have intersected with price consolidation zones from the rally starting in 2009.

The second fib-arc is drawn from the top of 2007 to the bottom of 2009 and i used a dashed line from the drawing tool. The third fib-arc is just the opposite of the second, pulled from bottom of 2009 back in time to the top in 2007 and I used the dotted lines from the drawing tool. I probably didn't need to make these two extra fib-arcs to get the point of this chart across but I find enough interesting price pivotal events wherever these arcs and price congregate and intersect that I keep them on the chart. Intersections of the fib-arcs are potential targets - it's as simple as that.

What looks like channels (again using fibs) is actually a giant Andrews Pitchfork and that slanting blue line is my best effort of drawing from the low in 1932 on the SPX (best effort - in that, the ThinkOrSwim charting software doesn't have all the data back to 1932). There's no real relevant points of interest generated by the fork drawing but it helps to keep in mind the general multi-decade uptrend in price. Pretty much I ignore the fork for now until something more interesting happens along it's projections.

Anyway I believe I started projecting this higher high back in 2012 and for about a year have had this May as a the time & target for a price of 1910 on the SPX. I'll take 1890 as 'close enough'. So after this May, I'll expand this chart, both upward and out in time, lookiing for future intersections of these fib arcs both above and below. I'll have both bullish and bearish targets and let price action over time tell the rest of the story.

I think I first published all three of the fib arcs on one chart in Feb 2013, http://ponziunit.blogspot.com/2013/02/spx-2162013-fibonacci-arcs.html

One source of inspiration to start using the fib arcs on my charts was this chart: http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/03/long-term-s-egg-aka-ellipse-of-doom.html - the 'doom' prediction turned out to be nothing more than a substantial correction point - not doom - but I had been using the fib-arcs in simlar fashion back in 2011 for gold and back in 2009 for the S&P futures. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H6r4ZoSDK2s/TBRVM-tY5dI/AAAAAAAABDw/wayI9UrdKVg/s1600/yg+2010+06+12.png - some of my older charts are pretty messy and carry way too much information to attempt to describe in words. You either see the patterns I'm trying to pick out or you don't.

Here's another chart going back to 1929 (ThinkOrSwim has data on their Prophet charting tool going back that far - but I don't enjoy the charting tool set on Prophet as well as I do the standard TOS software). The chart might imply that we are at a major top, but I can easily extend the fib arc out to some future top and will not be surprised if i recognize similar symmetries - call it unabashed curve fitting.

SPX using Prophet charting software:

 

BTW how to you use Fib Arcs?  I use Fib retracements and extensions all the time.  Never use the arcs or time series

Everyone is expecting a correction.  Crash?  Not unless WW3 or something of that magnitude happens

Speaking of fringe... hope I don't make anyone dizzy with my chart correlating this current May's price action on the S&P500 according to fibonacci arcs. I have been watching this pricepoint & month for a long while on this chart and now that it's all but completed, I'm waiting for enough information to pick new targets.

Fringe nutjob's wet dream.

In other words, Not Gonna Happen Any Time Soon.

Move along, people, nothing to see here.

Nice post, man. Thanks for taking the time to write all this stuff.

I kinda understand ( like 2%, if you ask me ) how US system works. But the thing is: People are blind.
Greed is driving everyone to self destruction.

It's nice when you're -among- the majority. You know when you should pack your bags and leave. Did that back in 2008, in Greece.
When you see fear from majority of people, afraid of being fired, then you know something is not good. Did some research, saw a part, of what was coming, packed my bags and moved to Serbia.

Just, now, I have the same feeling. Looks like this is going to be big. Too much democracy is involved in everything.

That too.

US banksters sold lots of private banks to some European countries. Those banks had big debts. Everyone thought that "crisis" was over.
They were just adding hot air in the bubble. Real estate bubble. You know what followed.

Now, Sweden & 1 more Scandinavian country ( can't remember which one ) are chewing their loses, because of US banksters.Hey, it's just a ride : )

Because the European banks and corporations invest heavily in American companies, anything bad that happens in the USA will also completely destroy the European economy. Just like the housing bubble.

I am always interested to watch how many people find the financial system in the US will fail. This is a fact as the system is corrupt and manipulated yet know one can see past the inflated stock market success, misleading unemployment statistics and low interest rates. Numerous cities have filed bankruptcy and many others are on the verge of doing so. Real-estate foreclosures continue to weight on our economy as well.
 This is not very difficult to understand, but if you research the 1920 depression, too many similarities occur. Even though there are so many theories on the exact cause of the depression without consensus to this day. My belief only is that our economy is quite complex with trends you simply cannot measure in comparison to the great depression. The fall is only a matter of time (not if, but when) and the signals are simply being ignore by the masses. I am of the school that believes that the depression had many symptoms with the gold standard devaluation as the root cause with numerous other factors that followed. Not wildly accepted, but American's will never all agree by nature. The gold standard was only one of the common denominator to the world wide depression. Todays monetary system is even worse because it is completely manipulated by our federal reserve/government that simply prints money to no end and increases the national debt to never before seen levels. By raising taxes (including healthcare) you have now taken the buying power away from the people, which in turn forces the American people to secure additional loans (see student loan debt levels) which over time they simply cannot afford. The high levels of tax and loan debt along with terrible Fed. policies, poor leadership and decreasing economic output cannot be cured by additional government hand outs and debt.
  The system will fall not just the stock market. The market will be propped up by the government as we speed down the road to our ultimate demise and our financial system topples over. The cure unfortunately will be more painful than the disease itself. How do we increase our productivity when emerging market forces low wage/productivity ratios are vastly less than our own? Pour leadership will continue make all the wrong decisions with full support of the majority. Inevitable is my conclusion, but today it is 70 degrees and sunny.

It is easy to manipulate small time investors/traders, not by you can me, but large investment banks. They give out ratings, issue analyst reports, and also invest themselves. There is certainly conflict of intertest. Many times have I seen them drop a rating, revise a target, buy in themselves and then issue a positive report later on.

Technology is involved as well, it has a big role in stock markets.
We've seen those "flash boys" or however they call them.

They're manipulating everything within milliseconds.

I'm trying to get concrete answers.


There's sun, before storm

It's not hard to manipulate individual traders, but it's very hard to manipulate a large market. There are a lot of people and money involved.

Sorry I
Sorry, didn't mean to avoid your question. I think that any large swings in the US market (Or any large market like China or Japan) will affect the European market significantly. Though you would have at least a few hours warning because of the time differences.

What if they're trying to suck people in?
Then just flash crash the markets?

Indeed, I'm not familiar with any kind of markets. First time I sat and "analyzed" a chart, was back in November, when $1.2k happened.

But what if everyone is delusional? And believes that?
It's not hard to manipulate traders.

Agree. There is not enough evidenc fo such conclusion IMO.

I really doubt stock are going to go down. Nothing but good news lately IMO. Stocks are at an all time high and it will stay that way for a while.

I think this happens in most of the years, peak in April and followed by a slump until summer. If you are alarmed by this, you haven't been in the market for very long.  However, we might not have a dip this year. The slow down of bond buying and raising interest rate is expected and to some degree already priced in. If we have some nice figures and there are more definite signs of a recovery, some sectors may do very well in the coming weeks.

I wanted to avoid BTC talk, wanted to focus on real world for a bit.

If a crash happened, BTC's price would skyrocket. Am I wrong/right?
Since most people would look to put their savings into something.


I'm not relaying on that article only. Been reading a lot in the past 3 days, which made me go kinda paranoid, lol

It doesn't look like "divide and conquer" game. It looks like much deeper than that.

As I've said, I'm not an expert for economy, please be gentle

Thanks for the reply, appreciate it.

Back to the question:

Not sure how you found this "news" but it's quite a bit over the top. When you read things like "indisputable charts to back up his predictions" it means these people are spinning their own agenda. Charts are never "indisputable" unless you're talking about a chart of past events, and even then all kinds of math can look all kinds of different.

That being said, I do think the economy will be taking some hits in the near future, but 50% unemployment, or a 90% stock market dump this year is just not very likely at all.

I also hope that the "crash" will wait a while longer. I don't think Bitcoin is mature enough to get a serious boost from a crash just yet.

http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Market-Collapse-Finance-Stocks/2013/03/01/id/492699/

I'm not an expert for stocks, nor cryptos.

But, I saw few warnings lately, which are saying that markets are going to collapse soon. Like, really soon. ( Days, weeks, 1 month, tops )


All I'm interested to know, what impact would Europe have if US stock markets collapse?
Already seen that the US govt is making a police empire. It could be a warning as well. People will panic. They will be losing their jobs, food/oil prices would skyrocket, so, it makes some sense.


Monday is in 2 days. ( Not saying it will happen on Monday, just speculating )


Not trying to spread fear, nor anything else. Just looking for some information, so I can protect myself, if that happens, again.


Thanks for your time.


-TWC