tool
Hoe?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/im-giving-100-roi-away-to-anyone-who-thinks-pirate-is-a-fraud-101751
Topic: Info about BFL Power Draw (Read 4089 times)
Umm, no. There's no chance I'm taking an unescrowed bet with someone who created a possibly sockpuppet account two weeks ago.
[/quote]
tool
Ok I thought that could be fun. No deal then.
We could just do it like that. On Feb 1, 2013 UTC whoever wins messages the other. 1 BTC is fine, really.
Umm, no. There's no chance I'm taking an unescrowed bet with someone who created a possibly sockpuppet account two weeks ago.
We could just do it like that. On Feb 1, 2013 UTC whoever wins messages the other. 1 BTC is fine, really.
I will remember it. 1 BTC is good enough. I'm not that rich lol. 
Alright, no deal. It's not worth setting up an escrow for a 1BTC bet.
I will remember it. 1 BTC is good enough. I'm not that rich lol.
Would you like to place an escrowed wager on this? I will bet you 100BTC at 1:1 odds that the network hashrate will be less than 500TH/s before February 1st, 2012 (UTC). That's an increase of almost exactly 22.3x the current hashrate; if you were confident it would raise 30x before this announcement that should be easy money for you now that ASICs are all announcing a 50-100% increase in GH/$.
I'll bet you 1 BTC. Someone reputable wants to witness/take note of this?
You better look at that year again, he's already won!
2013-02-01 UTC.
I edited, 2013 of course. 1BTC isn't worth remembering that far from now, 10BTC to make it interesting?
Would you like to place an escrowed wager on this? I will bet you 100BTC at 1:1 odds that the network hashrate will be less than 500TH/s before February 1st, 2012 (UTC). That's an increase of almost exactly 22.3x the current hashrate; if you were confident it would raise 30x before this announcement that should be easy money for you now that ASICs are all announcing a 50-100% increase in GH/$.
I'll bet you 1 BTC. Someone reputable wants to witness/take note of this?
You better look at that year again, he's already won!
2013-02-01 UTC.
I'll bet you 1 BTC. Someone reputable wants to witness/take note of this?
500 TH/s I win. Less than 500 TH/s you win.
2013-02-01 UTC.
500 TH/s I win. Less than 500 TH/s you win.
2013-02-01 UTC.
I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase. I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.
Keep in mind that Inaba is employee of BFL, and that BFL has made huge investments in their chip, so they won't tell you that your expected profit will in fact be a little less.
My calculations are as follow, and I take them as a worst figure:
Currently if someone wanna start mining, the best MH/s/$ he can get is with a single (end product of the FPGA generation) at 1.38 MH/s/$. A little less if we take other FPGA products, a little more if we take into account the minirig.
With the ASIC generation, as a first product of this generation, we have the single SC which gives 30.79 MH/s/$. A little less if take the Japaleno, and a little more if we take the minirig SC. But if look over at competition, this time BFL has not the best MH/s/$: the Avalon for example, at least for the first 300 units, offers 46.19 MH/s/$. This is worrying because it's for a first generation product.
I expect that in 2013 the second generation of ASIC will increase well over 40 MH/s/$.
Simple math then:
40/1.38=28.99
The difficulty will effectively increase by 30x in the next six months.
2) Your metric makes no sense. The only way they would be somewhat accurate is if everyone on the network liquidated their hardware, got a great price for it, and reinvested that in ASIC products in the next six months. That's not likely to happen.
Haha. https://forums.butterflylabs.com/content.php/117-Announcement-BFL-ASIC-Release-specifications
Yup 34x.
Would you like to place an escrowed wager on this? I will bet you 100BTC at 1:1 odds that the network hashrate will be less than 500TH/s before February 1st, 2013 (UTC). That's an increase of almost exactly 22.3x the current hashrate; if you were confident it would raise 30x before this announcement that should be easy money for you now that ASICs are all announcing a 50-100% increase in GH/$.
I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase. I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.
Keep in mind that Inaba is employee of BFL, and that BFL has made huge investments in their chip, so they won't tell you that your expected profit will in fact be a little less.
My calculations are as follow, and I take them as a worst figure:
Currently if someone wanna start mining, the best MH/s/$ he can get is with a single (end product of the FPGA generation) at 1.38 MH/s/$. A little less if we take other FPGA products, a little more if we take into account the minirig.
With the ASIC generation, as a first product of this generation, we have the single SC which gives 30.79 MH/s/$. A little less if take the Japaleno, and a little more if we take the minirig SC. But if look over at competition, this time BFL has not the best MH/s/$: the Avalon for example, at least for the first 300 units, offers 46.19 MH/s/$. This is worrying because it's for a first generation product.
I expect that in 2013 the second generation of ASIC will increase well over 40 MH/s/$.
Simple math then:
40/1.38=28.99
The difficulty will effectively increase by 30x in the next six months.
2) Your metric makes no sense. The only way they would be somewhat accurate is if everyone on the network liquidated their hardware, got a great price for it, and reinvested that in ASIC products in the next six months. That's not likely to happen.
Haha. https://forums.butterflylabs.com/content.php/117-Announcement-BFL-ASIC-Release-specifications
Yup 34x.
I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase. I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.
Keep in mind that Inaba is employee of BFL, and that BFL has made huge investments in their chip, so they won't tell you that your expected profit will in fact be a little less.
My calculations are as follow, and I take them as a worst figure:
Currently if someone wanna start mining, the best MH/s/$ he can get is with a single (end product of the FPGA generation) at 1.38 MH/s/$. A little less if we take other FPGA products, a little more if we take into account the minirig.
With the ASIC generation, as a first product of this generation, we have the single SC which gives 30.79 MH/s/$. A little less if take the Japaleno, and a little more if we take the minirig SC. But if look over at competition, this time BFL has not the best MH/s/$: the Avalon for example, at least for the first 300 units, offers 46.19 MH/s/$. This is worrying because it's for a first generation product.
I expect that in 2013 the second generation of ASIC will increase well over 40 MH/s/$.
Simple math then:
40/1.38=28.99
The difficulty will effectively increase by 30x in the next six months.
2) Your metric makes no sense. The only way they would be somewhat accurate is if everyone on the network liquidated their hardware, got a great price for it, and reinvested that in ASIC products in the next six months. That's not likely to happen.
I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase. I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.
I do (at this point) trust Inaba, but he does have incentive to lie here. The lower the projected difficulty increase, the more pre-order sales BFL can continue to acquire.That said, I've always felt that most people's estimates based on order numbers were quite high. I bet there are people who go on BFL's site every day and just punch a few unpaid orders in, just to increase the order numbers that much more and try to scare people into not ordering more. I'd guess that 75% of the order numbers are unpaid.
Time will tell... Right now, one single is projected to make around $150/day. At a 10x difficulty increase, that's still $15/day, or $450/month. That's still a lot of money... I'll be happy with it, for sure.
I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase. I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.
Keep in mind that Inaba is employee of BFL, and that BFL has made huge investments in their chip, so they won't tell you that your expected profit will in fact be a little less.
My calculations are as follow, and I take them as a worst figure:
Currently if someone wanna start mining, the best MH/s/$ he can get is with a single (end product of the FPGA generation) at 1.38 MH/s/$. A little less if we take other FPGA products, a little more if we take into account the minirig.
With the ASIC generation, as a first product of this generation, we have the single SC which gives 30.79 MH/s/$. A little less if take the Japaleno, and a little more if we take the minirig SC. But if look over at competition, this time BFL has not the best MH/s/$: the Avalon for example, at least for the first 300 units, offers 46.19 MH/s/$. This is worrying because it's for a first generation product.
I expect that in 2013 the second generation of ASIC will increase well over 40 MH/s/$.
Simple math then:
40/1.38=28.99
The difficulty will effectively increase by 30x in the next six months.
Thanks for that Juicy tid bit Inaba!
I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase. I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.
Pretty much. The way I originally calculated it out, the 10x comes from not only the preorders posted by BFL, but also from other ASIC ventures, and all over the course of 12 months or so. I think I'll rework my numbers at the end of October/November, assuming more data is put out to the public (such as raw numbers on preorders/sales from BFL and other ASIC companies).
I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase. I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.
glad to hear that
I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase. I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.
Pretty much. The way I originally calculated it out, the 10x comes from not only the preorders posted by BFL, but also from other ASIC ventures, and all over the course of 12 months or so. I think I'll rework my numbers at the end of October/November, assuming more data is put out to the public (such as raw numbers on preorders/sales from BFL and other ASIC companies).
I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase. I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.
0 points
SHOW YOUR WORK
I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase. I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.
I think difficulty will sky rocket. 10 fold minimum, just in the next few months
Very much likely. In my analysis last month I predicted 7x increase minimum, but 10-12 is more likely.
Reference: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L8hKZinune9Cc7tWY9Pmx8J17BOxor7QNQAV03xROOc/edit
It will. Closer to 30x based on my calculations.
And where can we find these calculations?
I think difficulty will sky rocket. 10 fold minimum, just in the next few months
Very much likely. In my analysis last month I predicted 7x increase minimum, but 10-12 is more likely.
Reference: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L8hKZinune9Cc7tWY9Pmx8J17BOxor7QNQAV03xROOc/edit
It will. Closer to 30x based on my calculations.
And where can we find these calculations?
I'm assuming you're just plugging those numbers into here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php
Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.
They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..
I'm hoping that the difficulty doesn't go too much further than doubling. I know the ASCI will cause a spike, but it will settle after a little. As in every market, new technology will cause surge but the market will come to a balance again. Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.
They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..
I'm assuming you're just plugging those numbers into here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php
Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.
They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..
Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.
They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..
I'm hoping that the difficulty doesn't go too much further than doubling. I know the ASCI will cause a spike, but it will settle after a little. As in every market, new technology will cause surge but the market will come to a balance again.
It will. Closer to 30x based on my calculations.
I think difficulty will sky rocket. 10 fold minimum, just in the next few months
this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Serial_Bus#USB_3.0
Possibly 7.5W for a jalapeno. Maximum current on the bus is 25W at 5V.
Possibly 7.5W for a jalapeno. Maximum current on the bus is 25W at 5V.
The 80W draw quoted is for the Single. The 3.5GH you've used is for the Jalapeno, which is USB powered (assuming USB3, that's less than 4.5W).
You'll probably see difficulty increase at minimum tenfold within 3 months of first product shipping.
You'll probably see difficulty increase at minimum tenfold within 3 months of first product shipping.
Damn idk why I didn't catch that!
That bumps his profit numbers up another 150. Again, I think that's too optimistic, but w/e. 
All we know is that it won't be more than their current products, so < 80W for the SC Single, and < 1250W for the SC MR.
Keeping the 80W draw in mind,
Bitcoin difficulty : 5388095.905910 (Once it doubles)
Drop is reward : 25
Keeping in mind that the Conversion rate doesn't change ( Which it probably will) 11.84 per bitcoin
Mining at 3.5Ghash/s
Power Consumption : 80w
Electricity rate: .15kWh
Time Frame: 18 months
Cost of mining hardware : 168 USD
That will return you close to 1,000 dollars.
Not a bad investment. With a 18month turn around.
The 80W draw quoted is for the Single. The 3.5GH you've used is for the Jalapeno, which is USB powered (assuming USB3, that's less than 4.5W).
You'll probably see difficulty increase at minimum tenfold within 3 months of first product shipping.
I'm assuming you're just plugging those numbers into here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php
Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.
They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..
Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.
They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..
I'm hoping that the difficulty doesn't go too much further than doubling. I know the ASCI will cause a spike, but it will settle after a little. As in every market, new technology will cause surge but the market will come to a balance again.
When doing my own calcs, I've been counting on a 10x increase. I'd rather it be lower and get more than I expected than to get my hopes up and be disappointed.
I've been thinking around 10,000,000 difficulty at least= 120 TH network total by late Nov early Dec
Until Jan/Feb/March,then maybe 300 TH network total=40,000,000 difficulty
I'm assuming you're just plugging those numbers into here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php
Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.
They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..
Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.
They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..
I'm hoping that the difficulty doesn't go too much further than doubling. I know the ASCI will cause a spike, but it will settle after a little. As in every market, new technology will cause surge but the market will come to a balance again.
When doing my own calcs, I've been counting on a 10x increase. I'd rather it be lower and get more than I expected than to get my hopes up and be disappointed.
I'm assuming you're just plugging those numbers into here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php
Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.
They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..
Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.
They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..
I'm hoping that the difficulty doesn't go too much further than doubling. I know the ASCI will cause a spike, but it will settle after a little. As in every market, new technology will cause surge but the market will come to a balance again.
I'm assuming you're just plugging those numbers into here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php
Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.
They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..
Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.
They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..
All we know is that it won't be more than their current products, so < 80W for the SC Single, and < 1250W for the SC MR.
Keeping the 80W draw in mind,
Bitcoin difficulty : 5388095.905910 (Once it doubles)
Drop is reward : 25
Keeping in mind that the Conversion rate doesn't change ( Which it probably will) 11.84 per bitcoin
Mining at 3.5Ghash/s
Power Consumption : 80w
Electricity rate: .15kWh
Time Frame: 18 months
Cost of mining hardware : 168 USD
That will return you close to 1,000 dollars.
Not a bad investment. With a 18month turn around.
All we know is that it won't be more than their current products, so < 80W for the SC Single, and < 1250W for the SC MR.
Does anyone have any information about predicted power draw of the SC's? 
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