yes, there most probably will be one more week at $400 and then breakout above 500 is imminent.
Brilliant Stuff!
Another bookmarked quote for my collection.
Which other of my totally correct quotes are in your collection now, Mat?
Topic: Interesting times ahead for next 4-8 weeks (Read 6300 times)
Brilliant Stuff!
Another bookmarked quote for my collection.
Which other of my totally correct quotes are in your collection now, Mat?
I stress this often enough: I am (still) a long term bull. But there are two additions I don't see everyone in here making with equal certainty:
a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.
b) there is still a very real risk of "total failure" of this investment. To be clear, I consider the chance of success and corresponding growth high enough to make this baby EV+, but everyone needs to ask himself if he or she is, honestly, comfortable with a, say, 30% or 40% chance of total failure (if you think those numbers are too high, fine. they're more of an example than actual prediction).
I'm glad you agree, but I'm not sure if we agree to the same thing.
that, sir, is a mighty epic quote.
I stress this often enough: I am (still) a long term bull. But there are two additions I don't see everyone in here making with equal certainty:
a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.
b) there is still a very real risk of "total failure" of this investment. To be clear, I consider the chance of success and corresponding growth high enough to make this baby EV+, but everyone needs to ask himself if he or she is, honestly, comfortable with a, say, 30% or 40% chance of total failure (if you think those numbers are too high, fine. they're more of an example than actual prediction).
I'm glad you agree, but I'm not sure if we agree to the same thing.
I stress this often enough: I am (still) a long term bull. But there are two additions I don't see everyone in here making with equal certainty:
a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.
b) there is still a very real risk of "total failure" of this investment. To be clear, I consider the chance of success and corresponding growth high enough to make this baby EV+, but everyone needs to ask himself if he or she is, honestly, comfortable with a, say, 30% or 40% chance of total failure (if you think those numbers are too high, fine. they're more of an example than actual prediction).
...
When I first bought in, (just after the FINCEN regulations appearing on Mt. Gox for the first time (which they subsequently ignored)), I thought at that moment bitcoin had a 50% chance of failure. Today, I personally believe that number is around 10%-20%.
When I first bought in, (just after the FINCEN regulations appearing on Mt. Gox for the first time (which they subsequently ignored)), I thought at that moment bitcoin had a 50% chance of failure. Today, I personally believe that number is around 10%-20%.
Interesting. Would have guessed you'd give it a much lower value. But, yeah, that's probably my estimate as well, in a very rough "big success / slowly fizzle out / sudden catastrophic (market or technical) failure" distinction.
I do however notice that, as the USD value of my BTC ... I should really stop using that acronym ... my XBT position increases, I'm becoming less tolerant of whatever low risk of total failure. I guess to fully specify an individual's risk profile you need to reserve a dimension for 'total value'. Or at least, my risk profile seems to work like that.
That's exactly it. A 1%-2% chance of total breakage and going to zero. And a 15%-18% chance of a maximum of 3 digits or maybe $1300 like BofA/MS said. But since my average is still less than $200, I'm not that worried about that scenario.
And hey, a 80% chance of 100×-1000× your money is pretty darn good if you ask me.
I think we're in for a quiet week or two and then some big moves.
Obviously because I've said that we will get some big moves in the next week or two, and then it will go quiet...
Obviously because I've said that we will get some big moves in the next week or two, and then it will go quiet...
From December 2013 the Price range was about $400 to $1200 (That is what I stated in December 2013 near the top of the range at the time).
From now the CURRENT Price range I set at $400 to $700*
=====================================
*(But maybe once $550 level is breached we soar way past $700 and not stay in the $400-$700 range )
The Next Price in the near future is likely from $700 up to ?______? ($1200max to $4800max) and not possible for me to calculate.
But the CURRENT Price range I set at $400 to $700 and it should stand until the next break out that is likely but not certain to set all time highs shortly after sustained trading for more than a week above about $700 or in the range.
(This all is roughly, I care not to define too technical of a set of exact price ranges.
Easily prices could dip slightly below or above the ranges mentioned).
Get very excited when $700 is breached for longer than one week.
But for now...
From now the CURRENT Price range I set at $400 to $700*
=====================================
*(But maybe once $550 level is breached we soar way past $700 and not stay in the $400-$700 range )
And hey, I did get the prior range roughly correct. And somewhere in this Economics section of the forum here if anyone doubts this, lol.
***I doubt many during December 2013 thought that we would revisit the $400 level. So keep that in mind.
Also, through 2013, I always kept underestimating the strength of Bitcoin. Never again, lol...Wow!
Everyone that understands Bitcoin Loves Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is The Future.
Bitcoin is Freedom.
I do however notice that, as the USD value of my BTC ... I should really stop using that acronym ... my XBT position increases, I'm becoming less tolerant of whatever low risk of total failure. I guess to fully specify an individual's risk profile you need to reserve a dimension for 'total value'. Or at least, my risk profile seems to work like that.
Right.
"I could have been a millionaire, but I messed up" is just depressing.
People start to cash out, in varying degrees, when their holdings reach life changing amounts (for varying definitions of 'life changing'). This is a good thing, because it means that bitcoin gets spread around more, rather than being concentrated solely with the early adopters.
...
When I first bought in, (just after the FINCEN regulations appearing on Mt. Gox for the first time (which they subsequently ignored)), I thought at that moment bitcoin had a 50% chance of failure. Today, I personally believe that number is around 10%-20%.
When I first bought in, (just after the FINCEN regulations appearing on Mt. Gox for the first time (which they subsequently ignored)), I thought at that moment bitcoin had a 50% chance of failure. Today, I personally believe that number is around 10%-20%.
Interesting. Would have guessed you'd give it a much lower value. But, yeah, that's probably my estimate as well, in a very rough "big success / slowly fizzle out / sudden catastrophic (market or technical) failure" distinction.
I do however notice that, as the USD value of my BTC ... I should really stop using that acronym ... my XBT position increases, I'm becoming less tolerant of whatever low risk of total failure. I guess to fully specify an individual's risk profile you need to reserve a dimension for 'total value'. Or at least, my risk profile seems to work like that.
When I first bought in, (just after the FINCEN regulations appearing on Mt. Gox for the first time (which they subsequently ignored)), I thought at that moment bitcoin had a 50% chance of failure. Today, I personally believe that number is around 10%-20%.
I think it depends on what you mean by failure. I'd put the chances of the crypto being broken, the technology otherwise failing, bitcoin being essentially banned worldwide - or some other form of total failure - in the 1-2% range.
On the other hand, there is almost certainly already a rather big element of future adoption priced in by the markets. There is a possibility of Bitcoin failing to get any mainstream traction - and of the stores that are currently dabbling with it losing interest. And in that scenario bitcoin's fair value is probably a lot lower than right now. I'd put the probability of this scenario maybe in the 10-20% range.
roy
The $100s won't happen. I am neither lying nor deluded.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
ftfy
Even with a normal job paying off $10k is far from impossible.
Oh absolutely. But he was the one who described taking out a loan on a cc (pretty high interest rate, to my knowledge), then selling half of the coins to pay it back, i.e. a wet dream of buying in low and selling at the immediately imminent recovery. I was poking fun at that unwavering certainty that it is a sure thing price always goes back up again, just because the fundamentals look okay, and price did that over the past 3 years.
You must agree it's very likely though. The gamble is likely to have a positive expected value (doesn't mean you should do it, I'm not).
I stress this often enough: I am (still) a long term bull. But there are two additions I don't see everyone in here making with equal certainty:
a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.
b) there is still a very real risk of "total failure" of this investment. To be clear, I consider the chance of success and corresponding growth high enough to make this baby EV+, but everyone needs to ask himself if he or she is, honestly, comfortable with a, say, 30% or 40% chance of total failure (if you think those numbers are too high, fine. they're more of an example than actual prediction).
When I first bought in, (just after the FINCEN regulations appearing on Mt. Gox for the first time (which they subsequently ignored)), I thought at that moment bitcoin had a 50% chance of failure. Today, I personally believe that number is around 10%-20%.
The $100s won't happen. I am neither lying nor deluded.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
ftfy
Even with a normal job paying off $10k is far from impossible.
Oh absolutely. But he was the one who described taking out a loan on a cc (pretty high interest rate, to my knowledge), then selling half of the coins to pay it back, i.e. a wet dream of buying in low and selling at the immediately imminent recovery. I was poking fun at that unwavering certainty that it is a sure thing price always goes back up again, just because the fundamentals look okay, and price did that over the past 3 years.
0% interest rate for 28 months was the last offer I got. I'm pretty sure bitcoin would get back to $200 in 28 months.
Nice predictions, its gonna spike down, not enough support from average Joes, thats it.
Looks like my prediction for a quiet couple of weeks was correct. Now what? Will we keep going sideways until the price hits the dotted line and turn down, or shoot up? Or just keep dribbling sideways?
a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.
Just for you yoda krell. May I call you yoda? I'm just doing this for fun, I have not the remotest clue what will happen.
The $100s won't happen. I am neither lying nor deluded.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
ftfy
Even with a normal job paying off $10k is far from impossible.
Oh absolutely. But he was the one who described taking out a loan on a cc (pretty high interest rate, to my knowledge), then selling half of the coins to pay it back, i.e. a wet dream of buying in low and selling at the immediately imminent recovery. I was poking fun at that unwavering certainty that it is a sure thing price always goes back up again, just because the fundamentals look okay, and price did that over the past 3 years.
You must agree it's very likely though. The gamble is likely to have a positive expected value (doesn't mean you should do it, I'm not).
I stress this often enough: I am (still) a long term bull. But there are two additions I don't see everyone in here making with equal certainty:
a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.
b) there is still a very real risk of "total failure" of this investment. To be clear, I consider the chance of success and corresponding growth high enough to make this baby EV+, but everyone needs to ask himself if he or she is, honestly, comfortable with a, say, 30% or 40% chance of total failure (if you think those numbers are too high, fine. they're more of an example than actual prediction).
The $100s won't happen. I am neither lying nor deluded.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
ftfy
Even with a normal job paying off $10k is far from impossible.
Oh absolutely. But he was the one who described taking out a loan on a cc (pretty high interest rate, to my knowledge), then selling half of the coins to pay it back, i.e. a wet dream of buying in low and selling at the immediately imminent recovery. I was poking fun at that unwavering certainty that it is a sure thing price always goes back up again, just because the fundamentals look okay, and price did that over the past 3 years.
You must agree it's very likely though. The gamble is likely to have a positive expected value (doesn't mean you should do it, I'm not).
The $100s won't happen. I am neither lying nor deluded.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
ftfy
Even with a normal job paying off $10k is far from impossible.
Oh absolutely. But he was the one who described taking out a loan on a cc (pretty high interest rate, to my knowledge), then selling half of the coins to pay it back, i.e. a wet dream of buying in low and selling at the immediately imminent recovery. I was poking fun at that unwavering certainty that it is a sure thing price always goes back up again, just because the fundamentals look okay, and price did that over the past 3 years.
If the price went slowly to 100 usds, currently holders would be in panick, I doubt many would have the guts to buy more. Now, 100 looks so cheap. But 430 was like a mirage when the price was at 1150. Different times, different perspectives.
The $100s won't happen. I am neither lying nor deluded.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
ftfy
Even with a normal job paying off $10k is far from impossible.
Allmost every week is interesting with bitcoin
It strikes me that the "next 4 to 8 weeks" have been fascinating and uinpredictable pretty much non-stop! 
I don't really know who is going to sell BTC at these low prices. The only way is up !
If Bitcoin was shared equally among holders, I'd say there were more stupid people than the total number of Bitcoins among those holders. lol But this is not so. That's what happens when even a few stupid people hold more wealth than they can handle. Those would again dump for the slightest thought of a big crash and become the very reason of it.
Which will lead to them running out of bitcoin and currency to buy bitcoin and eventually only the strong hands survive and profit from the rise.
I think things will stay quiet for now.
Maybe by this year end or even next year there will be a big rally.
The only concern I have if the price dip any further and we don't get any good news by the end of this month or early next year , what will make more investors indulge in bitcoins ..! Maybe by this year end or even next year there will be a big rally.
Giving an opinion (bulish or bearish, it doesn't matter) without presenting any supporting facts or arguments is worthless.
Exactly My point ...! no point of claiming something if you don't have enough substance to back it up..!
Giving an opinion (bulish or bearish, it doesn't matter) without presenting any supporting facts or arguments is worthless.
What date do those lines meet?
I think things will stay quiet for now.
Maybe by this year end or even next year there will be a big rally.
Maybe by this year end or even next year there will be a big rally.
These charts contradict your statement.
How do they contradict my statement? August 2013 looked far more bullish on moving averages and RSI. Current indicators are looking weak as hell.
This is starting to feel like when it was stuggling to get back over 100 agust last year. I am as miserable.
Most long term indicators (moving averages, RSI etc) are far more bearish this time. Its not really comparable to august 2013.
These charts contradict your statement.
This is starting to feel like when it was stuggling to get back over 100 agust last year. I am as miserable.
Most long term indicators (moving averages, RSI etc) are far more bearish this time. It is not really comparable to august 2013.
This is starting to feel like when it was stuggling to get back over 100 agust last year. I am as miserable.
yes, there most probably will be one more week at $400 and then breakout above 500 is imminent.
+1 The $100s won't happen. I am neither lying nor deluded.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
ftfy
I'm pretty sure that none of the two options mentioned here are about to happen soon. I think we will enter a prolonged period of a directionless market with volatility trending lower. Imho the next major movement is quite a few months away.
ya.ya.yo!
ya.ya.yo!
Grey line just for you yayayo!
Thank you! It'll be fun to check back in half a year or so to see what has happened in reality.
ya.ya.yo!
I'm pretty sure that none of the two options mentioned here are about to happen soon. I think we will enter a prolonged period of a directionless market with volatility trending lower. Imho the next major movement is quite a few months away.
ya.ya.yo!
ya.ya.yo!
Grey line just for you yayayo!
I'm pretty sure that none of the two options mentioned here are about to happen soon. I think we will enter a prolonged period of a directionless market with volatility trending lower. Imho the next major movement is quite a few months away.
ya.ya.yo!
ya.ya.yo!
Interesting day today! Buying pressure across the board right now. Bitcoin rising!
Sorry, what was that? Can you repeat? LMAO.
Interesting day today! Buying pressure across the board right now. Bitcoin rising!
Maybe sub 400 will happen soon 
Nah, pretty safe bet that it won't go under 4
Maybe sub 400 will happen soon
I don't think 100's will happen again any time soon, seems to be a huge amount of buy orders stacking up as the price gets low and just drives the prices back up, stabilizing around the mid 400's each time.
100's won't happen ever again.
Miners will sell for a loss sometimes, but not that kind of loss.
I think we're in for a quiet week or two and then some big moves.
Obviously because I've said that we will get some big moves in the next week or two, and then it will go quiet...
Obviously because I've said that we will get some big moves in the next week or two, and then it will go quiet...
The most "predictive" and 'accurate' chart of the future I've ever seen!
It's almost as if it can't be wrong...
Yes, bottom two lines match up with mine. I've just zoomed in from a W to a D chart. I think if we break the upper of the two bottom trend lines, then we could see the lowest trend line touched (if it's not a false break shake-out). So, basically I'm just saying anything can happen, lol. Anyone that tells you otherwise is lying or deluded.
Yes I was also talking about the bottom two support lines.In my chart I also added a weekly MA 50 which is a long term bullish bearish indicator.
Also notice how the weekly RSI has never gone below the 30 mark after Bitstamp and BTC started getting traction.
I think we're in for a quiet week or two and then some big moves.
Obviously because I've said that we will get some big moves in the next week or two, and then it will go quiet...
Obviously because I've said that we will get some big moves in the next week or two, and then it will go quiet...
The most "predictive" and 'accurate' chart of the future I've ever seen!
I don't think 100's will happen again any time soon, seems to be a huge amount of buy orders stacking up as the price gets low and just drives the prices back up, stabilizing around the mid 400's each time.
yes, there most probably will be one more week at $400 and then breakout above 500 is imminent.
Brilliant Stuff!
Another bookmarked quote for my collection.
just don't forget to look it up once it happens ok
I do agree that within the next 4-8 weeks that there will be very interesting movement in the market, but I don't think that things will remain quiet for as long as the next week or two. I mostly say this since because of the levels of oscillations and because it looks like the price trend is very much ready to test a roof (instead of a floor like the last few significant price swings).
Besides, relatively speaking, things have been quite quiet these last few weeks in any case.
Besides, relatively speaking, things have been quite quiet these last few weeks in any case.
The $100s won't happen. I am neither lying nor deluded.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.
Then I would sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.
Yes, bottom two lines match up with mine. I've just zoomed in from a W to a D chart. I think if we break the upper of the two bottom trend lines, then we could see the lowest trend line touched (if it's not a false break shake-out). So, basically I'm just saying anything can happen, lol. Anyone that tells you otherwise is lying or deluded.
I don't really know who is going to sell BTC at these low prices. The only way is up !
There are plenty of people willing to buy high and sell low. There has to be for someone to take the other side of your trades. One example: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=588467.0;all
Out of curiosity, could you provide the base on which you drew the lower line? Because interestingly, it seems to coincide with 2 of my bottom estimates ($130 and $160), which were calculated entirely without the use of lines.
edit:
That answered it, cheers.
edit:
That answered it, cheers.
I think we're in for a quiet week or two and then some big moves.
Obviously because I've said that we will get some big moves in the next week or two, and then it will go quiet...
Obviously because I've said that we will get some big moves in the next week or two, and then it will go quiet...
Is this a zoom out of your Chart?
https://www.tradingview.com/v/EzMKybwM/
I don't really know who is going to sell BTC at these low prices. The only way is up !
If Bitcoin was shared equally among holders, I'd say there were more stupid people than the total number of Bitcoins among those holders. lol But this is not so. That's what happens when even a few stupid people hold more wealth than they can handle. Those would again dump for the slightest thought of a big crash and become the very reason of it.
I don't really know who is going to sell BTC at these low prices. The only way is up !
LOL, that's why my chart goes up and down, with a disclaimer that it will probably do neither.
I like your first red arrow down, find it very hard to see the third one happening though....but who knows....perhaps if Bitcoin spends a bit of time trending between $250-$400 then a totally different realm of price action possibilities will open up to market followers.
So you are predicting some huge shake in market in next few weeks..! I think this will only happen if some things good or nasty happens.. otherwise its hard to break to 300-500$ window..!
yes, there most probably will be one more week at $400 and then breakout above 500 is imminent.
Brilliant Stuff!
Another bookmarked quote for my collection.
LOL, that's why my chart goes up and down, with a disclaimer that it will probably do neither.
Let it be so!
yes, there most probably will be one more week at $400 and then breakout above 500 is imminent.
Brilliant Stuff!
Another bookmarked quote for my collection.
yes, there most probably will be one more week at $400 and then breakout above 500 is imminent.
I think we're in for a quiet week or two and then some big moves.
Obviously because I've said that we will get some big moves in the next week or two, and then it will go quiet...
Obviously because I've said that we will get some big moves in the next week or two, and then it will go quiet...
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