http://imgur.com/GqZr3N5
because it shows
- a Cerulean tower access card
- a cat that matches one from a 2010 video of Karpeles that someone dug up
so on balance of probability I'd say that the linked conversation did happen, though of course we don't know if the published text of it is genuine.
Assuming it is genuine, I still feel that people are reading too much into the "more or less" comment. Nothing else was confirmed except that Karpeles was seeing a lawyer on morning of 26th.
Also speculations about his mental state and personality based on a small IRC transcript that is not even known to be 100% genuine is probably a step too far but I'm sure amuses some.
Wall Street Journal is also saying that MtGox has received a subpoena from feds in New York:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/26/mtgox-subpoena-idUSL3N0LV0UZ20140226
so it is unclear whether Karpeles's legal meeting would be about himself personally, MtGox's future, the subpoena, or a combination of all of these.
I think all we know for sure is that this is nowhere near over, as a source of bitcoin headlines.
