Topic: Iran is about the get enough Uranium for a nuke thanks to Trump's "great deals" (Read 176 times)

OK. Keep your shirt on!

As they say facts are the enemy of truth. It's easy to make up truths and "document" them, it is not easy to to bring up facts.

Where are you storing your bitcoins? In a hot wallet?
What would you do if you found out that a bunch of thieves were planning to rob your house? Will you leave your door open?

I can't explain it any simpler. When there has been multiple terrorist attacks on Iran's facilities using drones and micro-drones like the one on Bushehr power plant a couple of years ago that put it out of service; when Iran is being threatened every day with an attack on its infrastructure, etc. only a fool would ignore the threats and not think about defense.
Moving under ground is called passive defense.

Iran is among the top 3 to 5 countries with most amount of oil, natural gas, lithium and a lot of other natural resources.

It is not a possibility, as a matter of fact there have been at least 20 serious invasion plans on the past 8 POTUS's desks.

• The most recent one in that list were Trump's (as reveled by chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff gen. Milley in at least 5 occasions the last of which [among other reasons] led to gen. Milley effectively removing his authority as commander in chief to prevent him from what he referred to as "pulling a Reichstag Moment").
• The other serious one I'd say was Bush's (as revealed by many including by general Clarke who says he received direct order from the president to destroy 7 countries [includes Iran] in 5 years).
• Last but not least the oldest was Carter's which was supposed to start with Operation Eagle Claw (aka the dumbest military operation in human history if you read to declassified documents released by Pentagon) to rescue CIA operatives from post revolution Iran to be able to follow that up with a full scale invasion and re-install the pro-US dictator.

Sanctions are the indirect method of regime change, their success rate is not going to change their main purpose.
Basically they are meant to ruin regular people's lives so that they revolt against their own governments just because US ruined their lives! After all that is a page from color revolutions.

They also work well in some cases, like in the case of Iraq. You see contrary to "documented assertions" the project called "invasion of Iraq" started at least in early 1990s in Clinton administration not in 2003 with Bush. The start was with sanctions. Why? To target the economy, create famine, starve people (I mean that literary, look up oil for food in '95), create unrest so that people revolt and from inside pressure the Iraqi regime to accept US demands making it easy to invade in about 10 years.

Now guess what those demands were? In short disarmament. Basically Iraq to give up its military capabilities, not WMDs no no, they knew very well Saddam didn't have any for example chemical bombs left from the days Germany+US+France were selling it to him to drop on his neighbor, Iran; but instead they demanded Iraq to give up things like ballistic missiles that could reach US bases in surrounding countries from which they initiated the invasion, the anti-ship missiles and fighters that could reach and sink US navy ships that were bombing their cities in 2003, etc.
Guess what were the main target in operations like Southern Watch in mid 1990's? Air defense mostly but also civilians. For example nearly 700 civilians were killed or wounded in one operation in 1998 to both soften Iraq air defense for 2003 invasion and also to create more unrest in Iraq.
Guess how did US bomb Iraq with 800 Tomahawks when the invasion officially began in 2003? With the USN and carrier groups that Iraq could no longer hit since the regime accepted the disarmament!

Now with a little bit of history, JCPOA can be seen in another light. Specially when you put that together with different US demands of Iran that had nothing to do with nukes but targeted Iran's economy, civilian sector and of course military capabilities just like Iraq's in 1990's.

I am not your bro. My topics are my opinion and usually they are based on documented assertions. Perhaps you are no longer able to tell what is real and what is not:

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/05/30/iran-puts-its-nuclear-programme-beyond-the-reach-of-american-bombs


This article is behind a paywall, but this is not idle talk and there is more evidence. The site is beyond the reach of the bunker busting GBUs.

Iran does not have the most reserves as you describe, however it may be possible that an invasion plan could exist. Note "possible" and "plan". Iran is much more useful to US and Israel as a counterpower to Saudi Arabia and the countries in the gulf.

Regarding a military intervention, I do not think that is really possible in the economic sense. Iran is not Iraq. Larger, richer, better armed and controlled with an ironfist. Has some sophisticated weaponry and sufficient international support.

Lastly, sanctions have never worked to remove a government. They tend to affect the people, but the leaders are not removed (e.g. Cuba, Venezuela,...)

To your credit, at least you have some reasoning behind your views.

That's what 90% the dumb articles in mainstream media over the past 2+ decades have said: "Iran is about to build a nuke in 2 weeks".

It's pretty simple, if they wanted to build nukes, they would have already done it. Specially since Iran is a member of NPT and according to article 10 Iran has had enough legitimate ground to build nukes for the past 4 decades.

As for what I explained if you check out history and the chain of events you'll realize how accurate the summary I posted above is. I could break down the 4 decades of history if you'd like.

Have you ever heard the "politicians promise"? That's pretty much like that. It doesn't matter one bit what the text says, the only thing that matters is the actions. It's like a politician who promises you anything just to win the election but then forgets all of it after the win.

The PDF you linked is filled with sections that Iran fully complied with (as approved by IAEA, US itself and other members of JCPOA) and all the sections that other members did not in return.
Take section 5 for example. Arak facilities should have been modernized right? Wrong, it was shut down instead. No technology or assistance of any kind was given. The whole agreement is filled with these things.
Not to mention that one of the main goals of JCPOA which was the only reason why Iran entered it in first place was to lift sanctions but in reality not a single one was ever lifted. Instead after JCPOA sanctions against Iran increased to over 6000 in about 3 or 4 years starting from 2015 when it was signed, as I said Iran was complying with JCPOA 100%!

Is that really how you think it works?  That Iran is just trying to build one single nuke and it's silly to worry about it because it's just one nuke and the US + allies have thousands?  

I'm honestly curious if this is actually something you learned from somewhere or if you just kinda of said it because it seemed like a good argument and you just didn't really think about it. 

So Iran was genius to make it only about 'nuclear topic', but I'm wrong because it actually wasn't about preventing them from getting a nuclear weapon?  Or am I wrong about the timeline?  Either way your points can't all be true.


Wrong.  

You should read the actual agreement instead of regurgitating rhetoric.  Here's the section about cooperation regarding Irans Civil Nuclear programs (energy production,medical, water treatment, research, etc.) https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/245322.pdf

That's what the propaganda media keeps repeating otherwise all official statements from different international organizations like IAEA to the intelligence community inside United States have said the exact opposite.

I already explained the reason why he pulled out. It is Iraq all over again, they first accused Iraq of having WMDs to get the public on board and the same propaganda medias started spreading the bullshit then behind curtains they fooled Iraq to disarm itself to pave the way for US invasion.
Well, Iran did the exact opposite. Accepted the JCPOA but only as a nuclear agreement but nothing else that was meant to pave the way for invasion. Since Iran wasn't giving in to additional demands there is no benefit for US to remain in JCPOA so US pulled out. There is no difference between Obama, Trump, Biden or the next guy in the overall plan. The US "regime" has been dreaming to get its hand on Iran's resources ever since 1979 that Iranians put a boot up US ass...

Wrong.
Iran has always been a member of NPT and it means cooperation with IAEA. There is no economic benefits in JCPOA and there has never been any.

Well, Iran doesn't need to "bargain" with anyone to need a bargaining power. Specially in the new world order where Iran is one of the superpowers, dominating the West Asia. Even more so as a member of SCO and soon to be a member of BRICS.
Besides, if there were a need for a bargaining chip, there are a million different things specially in the military sector. Like the recent hypersonic ICBM they revealed that rendered all existing defense systems useless for at least the next decade.

One question. Is the Biden Administration attempting to restore some kind of a pact like the one Trump withdrew from?

If he isn't, even he thinks it is useless. If he is, he probably is making a new deal to destroy America faster than he is doing already through the Ukraine war..

Trump and his advisers believe that the nuclear agreement with Iran was a deception. This is because they think that Iran was not sincere to reduce its uranium enrichment, thus it is believed that Iran was not granting the nuclear plant supervisors access to all its enrichment sites. So Trump concluded that there was no need to continue with the agreement. But my problem was that he didn't propose another viable agreement.

Now Iran doesn't also trust the inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) because they are seen as having other negative motives against Iran. Iran will always be uncomfortable with these United Nations’ nuclear watchdog personnel because it is assumed that they are enemies of the state. I ran is just enduring their visits because of the economic benefit of the JCPOA.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is bound to fail without trust. Iran will never dismantle its nuclear program even if a new deal is put in place because it is the nation's most powerful bargaining power.

2 propaganda topics! What's up bro?

FYI they've been saying that Iran is about to build a nuke in 2 weeks for the past 2 decades, at least.

Wrong.
JCPOA was targeting was a start and was targeting a lot more than "nukes". It was targeting or hoping to target Iran's defensive capabilities. Long story short they were hoping to do what they did to Iraq, to Iran too. First sanctions, then disarming then famine followed by an oil for food enforcement then more sanctions and disarming and finally invasion. All because Iran has the most amount of fossil fuels (oil+gas) in the world.

Iran's genius was to accept JCPOA but make it only about nuclear topic. They disabled everything like the nuclear power plants, the nucleology (nuclear medicine) programs and a lot more but improved the shit out of Iran's defensive capabilities.
That is why Trump pulled out of JCPOA. Because it wasn't serving its purpose which was to weaken Iran's defenses to invade and take control of that sweet sweet fossil fuel fields.

Not that I think either of you are interested in the reality of the situation, but the inspections were to ensure that they only ever had small amounts of enriched Uranium for non military reasons like power and research.  The point was to keep them a year or two away at all times from having enough required to create a weapon so that f they broke the deal, they would still need a year or two to become a threat.  Also, the cash was there's to begin with.  It was from an order for US Fighter jets that were never delivered - collecting interest since the 70s when they took the hostages.

Balance of power and The United States and its allies want to avoid Iran turning into the next North Korea, but worse because the North Korean government is not as efficient and competitive as the Iranian one can be, they do not isolate their population from reality the same way North Korea does.

Israel also still hold on the hope of a change of regime in Iran, which would not be hostile against them and that possibility gets stretched to their limits when nuclear weapons are put onto the table. That is one of the reasons nuclear scientists are one of the targets of the Mossad in Iran.

The problem from the beginning is the balance of power, because the countries that gathered in what looks like an international coalition against Iran's nuclear project also possess nuclear weapons and are still practicing nuclear activities to this day.

Iran has never been a cooperating country in any of the pending issues, and despite all the blockade imposed on it, it was and still is the first enemy of Israel in the region, and this is what motivates all of Israel's friends (a strategic alliance) to stand against it.
Despite the conflicting positions between the Trump administration and the Obama administration, both of them are directly in the interest of Israel, as while Obama chose the policy of negotiation and agreement to limit Iran's nuclear capabilities, Trump chose direct confrontation with Iran, which was evident in his abandonment of the agreement Nuclear strikes and targeting Iran's allies (the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and Saudi Arabia's support against the Houthis who are loyal to Iran in Yemen).

What I am sure of is that Iran did not stop developing its nuclear capabilities even after the signing of the agreement in 2015, which can be described as part of political maneuvering. Perhaps Trump was counting on his success in winning a second term in the presidential elections to complete his project against Iran, but what happened was the exact opposite, and we see today that Iran is the beneficiary of Trump's decision.

Perhaps it is a bit off topic. But lately, there has been news on Trump holding classified documents about a possible invasion on Iran.

It is not only about the fact he knew he was doing something wrong and possibly illegal, but also the possibility of America plotting to invade Iran as an alternative to a new deal or way to avoid that country to assemble nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction...

It is a bad alternative to the good ol diplomacy, if you ask me... A change of regime in Iran would be positive to Israel and USA, no doubt about it, but a full hot invasion could have unpredictable consequences to the planet and the balance of power...

Surely you would not think that having no treaty and no right to inspect installations freely is worse than not having anything at all?


No, the inspections were there and the facility would have not been built. Calling it a hoax does not make it a hoax.

Trump did not have to broker peace, Iran was not at war. Trump did not broker anything at all, he just used sanctions to no avail. Wrong strategy.

No, you cannot eliminate their nuclear programme at the touch of a button, that is a thing of the past.

It is about time that Trump takes some responsibility for his actions. I mean for ANY of his actions in ANYTHING he has done wrong.

Anytime that he is caught lying, stealing, falsifying accounts, acting against the constitution and the law... even sexually abusing or paying for sex ... is just "it is the Democrats going after him". It is just plainly ridiculous.

Surely you didn't think the JCPOA would keep Iran from producing enriched Uranium? They wanted the deal for the cash and to lift sanctions. They were never going to stop their nuclear weapons program.

What politicians don't want to say is that a regime change is required in Iran. Those get messy and expensive. Instead, they'll throw cash at the problem and hope the problem goes away. Trump tried sanctions to try and collapse Iran, it didn't work. Taking out the Iranian regime would be the only feasible solution.

Anybody who looks at the deals that government makes with other governments, and sees how the deals are constantly being broken, comes to a simple conclusion.

The cabal that is over all the governments nullifies any of the deals it wants to. It isn't the fault of Trump or Biden. Government deals are secondary to the deals of the cabal of the elite. And we seldom see those deals, except in the results they provide.

I do not know about you, but in my eyes,  it seems that Donald Trump somehow always ends up benefiting the adversaries of the United States. This is a good example of it, with Iran.

Other example is how some time during his first presidency there were rumors about him thinking to withdraw USA from NATO or even going as far as unfund NATO, which would have been very beneficial for Russia and China.

I do not understand the idea of getting rid of a pact which was supposed to avoid nuclear proliferation, if ones not ready to replace it with another one even better. 

If memory serves me correctly the inspections for the previous deal were nothing more than a complete hoax.  Iran was enriching uranium anyway and we were looking like fools allowing them to do it right under out watchful eye.  Rather than let this continue, Trump used this as a way to broker peace, which he did.  Now instead of us being terrible policeman while our enemies broke our laws under our nose and prepared to attack us as the evil suppressive empire, we are at peace with them and watching them publicly setup operations.  When the time comes, a press of a button could eliminate their nuclear programs now, instead of them being clandestine operations built to undermine our inspections.

Your version is probably what the media will push though.

During the Trump administration, the no-proliferation deal with Iran was scrapped "because it was not good":

hhttps://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1718/Quick_Guides/IranNuclear#:~:text=About%2097%20per%20cent%20of,remains%20in%20place%20until%202030.



And guess what did Trump do with it:


 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44045957


He said it, and he did it: This is the new underground uranium enrichment facility built by Iran. Under a mountain, several accesses and deep enough so that even the most penetrating missiles and bombs cannot hit it. Iran is about to gain nuclear capability in months if not weeks. Does anyone feel "the world is now safer thanks to Trump"?


https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-natanz-uranium-enrichment-underground-project-04dae673fc937af04e62b65dd78db2e0