Topic: Is Bitcoin a Good Investment? Does Hodl Work? (Read 908 times)

Long term is always secure for every time so those are invest short term they only hard to survive in all the time. Most of the peoples are concentrate day trading so Holding is the always successful investment in crypto platform. Short term and mid term trading also good investment in crypto so everything is depends on the each knowledge.

I think bitcoin is a good investment tool because it can provide greater benefits than stock or gold market investments. but of course the risk of loss is also greater bitcoin. and in my opinion the key to success in investing in bitcoin is patience. we must be patient and hold bitcoin until bitcoin is pumping. if we want to make a big profit we have to hold our bitcoins for at least a year.
and of course we must always monitor and analyze bitcoin movements. so that we don't make the wrong decision.

The chances to find this 'one' profitable altcoin are as high as your needle in the haystack. Put also the time investment to find it and registration period to actually also buy it and store it in a safe way, that is truly not worth it.

some altcoins still profitable. you have to selective if you want choose altcoin to investment for long term. but altcoins campared with bitcoin, bitcoin always be the best investment for long term. if you there is capital, i advice you to buy and hold till bull run happen, it will profitable for you

I think with the current price of bitcoin comparable to 2 years ago, bitcoin is still a good investment, I think holding it for the long term will be better and can be profitable

There are just too many variables now included in the price action of the crypto market (most especially Bitcoin), the fad of hitching a ride with the "next big investment scheme" has gradually faded away. Now, Bitcoin's true value will be tested not just by price action, but essentially by its utility, and quite frankly utility has improved in over a decade.

A buddy of mine came to the conclusion that this hodling concept should only be relatively considered. There are many ways to stay in profit while handling Bitcoin, whether you employ cost averaging or not. You could also consider the derivative market (yeah, yeah, risky...), but the point is someone somewhere is definitely always in the green regardless of how the market swings.

Exactly, stay away from altcoins. You're just not diversifiying from the asset when investing in altcoins, you just put a rollercoaster on top of a rollercoaster.

Hodl strong guys.

as far as I know, hodl is still very profitable. this is the end of the year, so comparing bitcoin initial price with current prices is very important to look at, because 1 year can also be considered a long-term investment. The initial price for 1 bitcoin is $ 3700, while the current bitcoin price on CMC is $ 7400, the difference is $ 3700. if you have a minimum of 3 bitcoin that has been arrested since the beginning of the year, then you are sure to get a profit of $ 10k for the assets that you hold. doesn't that still work? moreover, many forecasts of the price of bitcoin will rise in the coming year.

All things differ on what people's like if they want to hodl since they don't know how to trade correctly then it will perfectly good for them but if they know on how works will with tradings then engaging with the risk of day trading will be a solid decision in this current market condition since the market is pretty much movable which is good for accumulating a small daily percentage profits.

People would already have different insights yet price is already way too high unlike into its few years where you can potentially earn on big multipliers but now the price had
risen up to 7k and when you do enter then 14k do need for having 2x which i dont see to be worth of the wait.Active trading would be preferable but as we all know
that doing such thing do have greater risk thats why its better to hodl instead rather than risking into things which you cant be sure of.

In this market, if you want to invest long term, Bitcoin is definitely the best choice. In the long term, it will certainly help investors make a profit, but it depends on their patience. Investing altcoins is a risky investment choice, because there are so many altcoin scams and they are useless altcoins.

I still think that bitcoins best kind of profit is only when you hold long enough, for the past 10 years that showed to be the greatest profit you could make. I am not saying it is always a great idea, yes if you bought from any price above 7 thousand dollars you are not profiting right now but also looking at the past 10 years there have been a total of maybe 5-6 months with any price over 7 thousand dollars, rest always went down and down, so maybe just because there was a small period when price was higher shouldn't affect peoples ideas that holding is a good strategy.

I still have some bitcoins aside and I will keep growing that as much as I can, I don't care if it goes under 3 thousand one day, I will keep getting more and more because I know when that skyrockets I will be capable of retiring.

I’m still doing this right now while the price of bitcoin is still cheap and I believe on cost averaging method and when the bull comes, taking profit is my next action. Holding works but remember not to hold forever, once it reach your target price then you have to let go your bitcoin and buy later when the price corrects.

but Not as easy as it looks.. ussually we are dissappoint when the bitcoin price going to down. not stable and tend to down but bitcoin is flutuation so pump and dumb is normal. i believe that bitcoin is good investment in the future, its really work when you hold for long time maybe five years . i think it will give high profit

right, targeting the investments we make for bitcoin does not have to wait until a sharp increase occurs, when it feels beneficial, it is the happiness we feel and whenever we can enjoy the benefits

Bitcoin is a good investment  but this depends largely on your investment strategies. For instance whiles holding you might want to switch to stable cryptocurrencies in terms of extreme volatility. The price of bitcoin will hit an all time high again and you don't want to miss this opportunity of not having in store some amount of gold coins

This way of holding is really an easy way to increase the value regularly. There will be different target value for different users, achieving that specific value surely takes time. In the mean time why don't you make use of the price variations buying low and selling high. When this is practiced it helps in multiplying the value in the cold storage. With this it is possible to make the capital grow and also can experience the benefits of long term holding.

its working for me.
i have cold wallet. and when my salary comes, i send fixed fiat to my exchange and buy BTC and HODL. until i reach my target. this target mean buy anything, vacation or just target amount of BTC.
and start again.

in this way BTC is a really good investment for me.

Each successive bull cycle has suggested that hodling works. It's a long term investment strategy so it shouldn't be judged over a matter of months. If/when the market makes a new ATH like 2013 and 2017, it'll be proven yet again as a solid investment strategy.

^ Because you are looking at your crypto asset per week or just months. That is not as easy as that, because when we talked about long term investment it is usually taken down years, not just a month or weeks. I agree that bitcoin is good for investment and holding for a long term or let your bitcoin sleep for how many years in your wallet and of course, make it sure that you have invested that you can afford to lose not just a family budget.

Good analysis. This price point might be (or not) the bottom for the bear trend since July 2019. If it's true (and I hope it is) then we'll be looking for a bull trend leading up to halving which might fuel the next major rally. That means profit all the way up for people like Joe who's dollar-cost averaging since the peak (which is a massive peak). I think this is enough to say that holding and DCA could work wonderfully over a long time frame.

There is always no good profits every month or every year, especially with bitcoin because we all know that bitcoin is really unstable and with that scenario, it depends on our decision whether we want to sell it already or wait for more months or years before selling because at this point it has a long time now that we are in dips and its getting dipper.

I would not say I am wealthy but I made good profit in 2017 from other coins.
I diversified some of my profits by buying the altcoins that I like and unfortunately they are dropping in value, some lost 90% of its price from ATH but like I said, I don't panic, if in case I will lose my investment on them, overall, I AM STILL PROFITABLE due to my other coins.

you lose some and you win some, but make sure you have more winnings that your loses, that's the rule in investing and in gambling .

Holding works, for the same you need to know how long we need to hold. Just buying and holding doesn't gonna get you with the best return. Very few will get luck to profit in the short without holding for a much longer time period. When it comes to holding we need to observe the market, and based on the changes happening we need to take decisions whether to continue holding or just cash it out for a buying at low prices.

Sorry, what was supposed to be 2013 and not 2015 , price in Dec 2013 was a bit over 1000$ and then a year later on Dec 2014 it was less than 500$, therefore, it was more than a 50% loss , my mouse cursor is not loyal  .


You did, you start with December and end with it !!!! if you don't do that, you can get the following

June 2014 (600$)    To June 2015 (300$)  > -50% loss
Jan  2018 (17,000)  To Jan 2019  (3500$) > -75% loss


Just because buying on Dec was profitable, it does not mean you can use that as a proof to show that hodling for one year worked well for 2014-2015-2016-2018.


Yup, this is usually the fair way to go about this, when you want to prove that something really works, you need to perform the study based on the worst case and not the best case, Buying in Dec of every year as you mentioned is just 1 out of 12, which can't happen all the time, there is a good chance that anyone would have bough the peak of 2014 as well as 2018, in fact more people buy the peaks than bottoms.

I am not saying the numbers you got are wrong, they are right, but they are selectively chosen  (not saying you have selectively chosen them on purpose), and they give the impression of (Buy bitcoin, Hodl for one year, and you will make profit) which is never the case because you could have bought at a worse time of the year and this is where most newbies buy at, so any HODL study should IMO be based on the worst possible scenarios, like how I did with my cost averaging starting at the peak of 2017, not because it was December, but because it was the peak.

Hodling works but the problem is that money has to be in circulation, I have no idea why do I have to repeat that proposal over and over again.
Also I have no idea why there is still question whether bitcoin is a good investment option or not, just see statistics, this coin is 10 years old and you can see every minute of it's price movement during this 10 years.
Personally I would say, bitcoin is great investment option but don't rely on my proposal, check statistics yourself, maybe I analyzed everything wrongly?

It's the beginning that matters here and after that, all's well that ends well.

Timing, as you stated, holds a critical position herein or take any stocks/shares/forex/commodities you have invested in. If you know when you should enter "the right time I am talking about", then you should decide the deadline of your position - short, long or mid. After that, set a target based on your deadline and get your capital safe once reached there. If your target is small, short and mid terms are okay, but if you buy btc today at $7200 and think that it will go $10k tomorrow? Please leave trading immediately, it's bad for your health, or go the other way - long term investment. Here, putting money which you will use lastly when all your funds are over - is the best choice. In simple words, invest what you can afford to lose.

Just look at the past history you will find everyone got their profit by holding bitcoin for a longer period of time. Daily trading is a risky task needed lots of skills. when you are investing then you should not worried that bad things will happen to your investment in the future. That will lead you to rhe wrong direction, better be confident and then invest. And in case of BTC, it has proved itself to be strong enough so many time that we can rely on it.

Bitcoin is good investment but holding is not better choose because many bad thing will happen with bitcoin at the future, maybe if you have much money you can use daily trade or investment with bitcoin in short term, you have get chance how you can get profit every day without hold your bitcoin for long term where your money have hold in bitcoin assets.

Holding works because there is a limited number that will ever be created.

A second factor is that we are just in the early stages of adoption. As Bitcoin goes more mainstream, the value should increase even further.

Proper timing is just like having luck. The market remains volatile that is why I'd take such an advantageous opportunity to buy and sell and rather than to hold and wait. I understand the risk that I've been doing and too much care but gladly I carried it out. Ain't no wonder that some will keep holding for the sake that they won't suffer losses. I accept I do not really have patient and easily get bored of waiting that is why I'd never try to hold bitcoin for a year or more.

Investing in bitcoin must be in the right time, if we invest in the right time, then we will gain profits. I had a few friends who invested in bitcoin at the end of 2017, at which time the price of bitcoin was higher than $ 17k and they still hold until now, obviously 2 years is a long time but they are still losing money. If we want to make a profit in this market, we must have experience and seize the opportunity, long-term or short-term does not matter.

That's right, bitcoin is a very good investment most especially for long term investments not more of a short term investment because the price moves so much almost every minute or every and that investing short term can be stressful and disappointing. I myself is hodling my coins an little by little got profits from it, I don't do day trading much because I have lost quite an amount already and it seems day trading isn't for me.

We really are setting ourselves a low bar if the price is dollars and BTC continues onwards then by design Dollar will on purpose lose value continually.   By that measure price should be going up but value wise its not an answer to the question of investment.
   If you want my very basic take, investment is involvement its not passive and its not a simple hold of a commodity.   Speculation is not investment, two different things but in this crazy world its possible nobody is left that notices or cares for any difference in between the two.

Make sure to hold enough dollars or whatever your locally flawed Papier-mâché currency might be so you can pay your taxes and next years bills.   Don't over speculate, that'll put you off balance and into the mud.   I've advised people to buy gold at times, problem is they buy and then sell in the same year.  2019 that might have worked but most years it wont and kinda similar for BTC, in this context yes its better to hold.  Ideally we want to circulate BTC from one holder to another even when using some value, that is happening to some extent the greater the population of BTC becomes.
  If BTC population increases, the price really doesn't matter as much and it only matters if you are requiring to go back to FIAT but most of us are horribly over exposed to failing FIAT via wages vs inflation to pension obligations.  Just don't over balance either way is the small print to any speculation [investment is involvement in a business using BTC ].

Im indeed doing both sides when it comes to short and longer ones.Im saving up BTC for longer term and i do have or spend some of it for shorter/day trades to accumulate more
and dealing with some few top alts in the market and when i do profit out i do convert it to BTC and the cycle continues.When it comes to profitability rate then theres nothing
who can beat out on active trading.As said Hodl wont guarantee on making you profits in a years time unlike on active ones but well we know the risk compared among the two
is different of course.The more time you deal actively then the more risky it is but if you can handle it out then its better to try.

With the proper timing, you can do that, holding is bad if you are just holding blindly, and also, if you are willing to hold for the long term, funds that you use for investment should be manage properly. Have a portion for long term and have a certain portion for short term too, so as an investor, you'll continue to make money and take advantage on the market volatility.

Hold? Depending on the situation cause, not all the time we must do to, it sometimes we need to sell and buy back again. That is how I work with my funds in crypto. Cause holding won't give us the assurance that we are able to gain more profit in a year or more. If we think of taking advantage of every fluctuation that the market has, I have to see that I'm in more gaining rather than of keeping its holding.

Anyway, that's our choice, besides, we have a different play in crypto and may holding for many years isn't my practice.

I don't know how you calculated a 50% lost because in 2015 the price was around 450 dollars, you can check everywhere you want and you will see that in 2015 December the price was around 450 dollars, specially the dates I checked, and in 2016 the price wasn't 250 dollars? Price hit around 800-900 dollar levels in 2016 late December as well?

I don't know where you are getting your numbers from but that is the real truth, in late December of 2014-2015-2016-2018 all made profits, just 2017 made a loss because that was literally the peak.

If you hold bitcoin long enough you ALWAYS make a profit, except that faithful horrible peak that was both a bliss and a curse because we had a chance to sell at $20k but that meant some people bought at $20k and lost money. I didn't even cherry picked the prices or points, I literally checked 1 year ago exact date, 2 years ago 3 years ago etc etc, what should I have done, picked the peaks of each year?

Holding is working very nicely for me, but I start with that back in 2014 and 2015 which was a great year in terms of very low prices of BTC (even bellow $200) and long-time in the range from $200 - $250. Considering that I was already thinking in the direction of long-term investment, the strategy, of course, paid off and did not bring any losses.

But as shown in the OP, profit can be made even BTC is bought at ATH and by buying constantly thereafter. However, few people apply this strategy because they do not see the logic in it, even though it is pure math. Bitcoin will never be a good investment for those who don't implement good strategies and rely solely on luck.

just calm down Bitcoin is still very feasible for us to buy and hold !, because Bitcoin is still experiencing growth from year to year,
large institutions and companies have also looked at it, even the country  

Hodling and DCA (Dollar cost average) seems to work quite nice as well for me. I highly recommend it to my friends and family and try to push them away as much as possible from trading. I do some profits while trading, but tbh it's definitely not worth the hassle, I just do it out of boredom lol.

I have been holding bitcoin since I bought them at approx 1500$ and later buying little at every dump. I think Holding worked for me quiet well even if the price is not half way down of all time high. If you are holding for years then you will always be in profit, unless you are trying to sell for just 1-2 years.. 

Bitcoin is a good investment but the HODL that you are talking about is not always working. There are many people who became rich because of HODL but there are also many people who lose because of HODL. The answer to have an effective HODL strategy is timing. You cannot HODL if you bought at the peak of the price. The best time to do HODL is to buy at the bottom of the price.

Hodl will work if there's something good that we are waiting since we provably get a benefits of it in future but in bearish market? it's suicide since we are slowly killing ourself for seeing those dump happening in the market and might we will end up selling our hodl coin in cheap price. That's why we always see the condition before we goes thru since there's no coming back if we lose our money in that day.

So be wise and be vigilant.

Right now in crypto, I don't see any other currency profitable than bitcoin. Bitcoin investment is good in short and hodl both ways. Because only Bitcoin price goes to up and downs quickly, so, if the price goes down, it will be back at least 2-300 USD up within a week. Therefore if you buy at the current price and start holding it, it will be worthy in the coming year, as there will have many good updates on Bitcoin. So, yes, Bitcoin is a good investment indeed.

just buying at any random time and then hodl will give you nothing. Imagine those who bought bitcoin in 2017 are still hodling and will continue to hodl unless we saw btc ath again. HODL works but you have to study the market first. See whats the best price to buy bitcoin prior to HODLING otherwise you will continue to hodl

yes, holding, in the long run, does not guarantee anything, it's just that it provides an opportunity, even in the future, holding large amounts of bitcoin also has great potential. however, if we measure it from 2017, the price of bitcoin has really fallen. but, forget about 2017, and look at the beginning of 2019, if measured up to now, then the increase provided is quite beneficial. although it doesn't guarantee, I still consider holding back still working. Well, I am holding bitcoin from the beginning of 2019, and that is very good, even more so in 2020 provides a great opportunity. I will keep it on.

Wrong, if you bought Dec 2015 and sat on it for a year, you would have lost over 50 % which means, this line of yours is wrong too


Also you can't selectivity chose the years and timing and conclude that hodling works just like that, if you show me 5 examples of how hodling worked i can show you 10 of how it didn't.

The point of this topic which I may have failed to deliver is that Hodling should be done in steps aka cost averaging, buying all at once is very stupid and in many cases you would have lost money even if you held for as long as 2 years, while cost averaging reduces the risk, I have shown you how starting to buy on the peak of 2017 and selling now would have been not as bad, however for someone who bought all in aka lump sum - they are now at over -60% after Hodling for 2 years, which is terrible !.

Let's take a look at exactly one year levels and how holding would be helpful for you or not. If you bought bitcoin at 23rd December 2014 you would get it for 335 dollars per bitcoin, which is obviously an insanely profitable purchase, you would have made over 20x of your investment if you purchased bitcoin at around those prices, not just 2x but 20x which is insane to think about in financial worlds.

If you bought it at 23rd December of 2015 you would have bought it for 438 dollars, which is a bit higher than 2014 which shows you could have made a profit from 2014 to 2015 but if you bought at 2015 you would have still profited. If you bought on 23rd December of 2016 you would have bought it for 900 dollars, surely a double increase in profits after one year would be a great deal but for today that would have been over 7x profits.

If you bought on 23rd December which looks to be the only time it is bad to buy around 13 thousand dollars which is a bad time to buy but after that in 2018 it would be 3200 and in this year it is over 7 thousand. So, as you can see from 6 years of looking at where to buy bitcoin, you have just one bad year for holding.

Though holding is a good option to take especially during the bear season but couldn't have an assurance that we can be of big profits for holding it for many years. Remember how much it drops after 2017 Bullrun and those who invested that time, I don't think that they could still manage to hold their bitcoin until today. Thus, it simply means that holding doesn't warrant anything, we still need to listen to the market flows or otherwise, we are just holding for nothing.

so you say HODL works, but it has not worked for you, are you Jeremy Corbyn?

This is not true, it may seem like it but the numbers have something different to tell us, there is no other way of defining "bad" , bad is bad and that's about it.

in the past 2 years, you only had 6 out of 24 months to go lump sum and still be in the green now which are November 2018 to April 2019, any other period and you would have been either in a loss or close to break-even (which can also be considered bad to many people)

So most people who bough bitcoin going all-in or lump sum are now in a negative territory, which is why cost averaging is a much better in terms of reducing risks, and that has been explained in the OP.

another point I want to add, that despite 2 years being long enough, it's not long enough to avoid the risk of bear markets, this is what history has proven, it could get worse depending on when will BTC see a new ATH to make those who bough the last ATH in profit again, my guess is 3 years minimum, in case someone accidentally buys the top of the market.

edit:

or maybe this can be a little more accurate.

To really well see if hold works we should look at long term hold. I hope we all agree that minimum time span fro long term hold is 4 years. Using that numbers will give magical results.

I prefer to hold bitcoin for a long time because it always gives a good and profitable return, but that does not mean I hold it for a very long time, and only buy when the price is cheap and wait for profit then sell it.
and I don't want to hold it for too long because if I hold it for too long because of dissatisfaction when the price of bitcoin continues to rise and hope it will continue to rise and eventually the price has dropped dramatically and finally regret it, and I've experienced it like that.

Yes and you have a point. Why would someone has to buy at the peak though? It's because they don't follow the market and just getting in because they think it's a trend where in fact it's a bull trap soon. Sad to say they were the victim of buy high sell low because they don't understand what they are investing.

Well as I said to a newbie holder they can enter anytime they want and now that the price is at $7200 USD I think it is still best to just buy when you had your extra cash or free time to spare with Bitcoin and other coins,

Well, the recent price was something at $6000 USD above well I think that is a great price to start and the price will not be going any lower than that as this year-end but it is still good to proceed with investment and holding and in my opinion, because the price will surely make its way to another all-time high, well we can never know for sure that is why long term investment is always good for me.

HODL works if you have bought bitcoin at right price. There is no point in HODL if you have bought bitcoin at 19000$ or 12000$. Last year in December price of bitcoin was around 3500$, those who bought at that price and HODL were blessed with a chance to sell at 11000$.

If you decide you want to hold bitcoins, then you don't need to analyze the price every month. Buy it and keep it for at least a year or more to get more profit. Analysis like this is only suitable for short-term traders and traders, but for the current market trading is bound to lead to losses.

A very nice price analysis you have up there. Bitcoin has been good investment to me and I have been making to some extent profits and that is because I don't follow years but indicators and that is what we should all do in other to see bitcoin as a good investment.

Well, holding is totally worked. Because holding is not just working for only a week or a month(s), probably it will run over a year. If you did not see that your profit was not there from the time you bought your bitcoin, do not rush to sell with it. Being patience is the key to have success and get a better profit. Indeed, in OP's story, Joe was on panic selling and did not control himself because he saw that the market was drastically down and probably thinking it will turn out to zero which very impossible. He never thinks that Bitcoin's price is very volatile. Do not enter and invest in the crypto market if you do not fully understand how it works.

Hodl works yes, if you know when to enter and exit the market after a long run. The idea of hodl intensified cause of the 2017 bubble which caused literally everyome that bought BTC at 100$ to profit so much that now, almost everybody is saying that just keep hodling, you'll profit sooner or later. I won't refute the idea but the result still stems to how BTC could possibly move in the future and how the trader himself is gonna enter/exit the market.

There's also the fact that every halving seems to produce some sort of force that pushes BTC to reach a new ATH, solidifying the assumption that Hodl has a 100% profit rate when in reality, its not.

it depends on how you define "bad".
price hasn't been rising ridiculously fast as some people expected it so that is bad. otherwise past 2 years have been good. we had the bubble burst that is necessary to keep the market healthy and the bear market that lasted too long (that part was bad) then we had one year of bull run in 2019 which is good!

as for buying, things have been bad ONLY for those who bought bitcoin in the last week of the last month of 2017! otherwise for anybody who bought bitcoin before that, ~80% of last 2 years the price has been above their entry point...

Holding can be working profitably if you started with Bitcoin for a long, long way cheaper than the price today. Example, if you happen to get into Bitcoin while the price was hovering around $1000 then even if Bitcoin can go as low as $5000 then you have nothing to worry about. However, if you happened to be a part of the great avalanche of buyers in 2017 and you got into Bitcoin at around $16,000 then there can be a big problem. In this case, it is either one should cut loss or really wait things out who knows one day the price can be back at the $20,000 level. Again, who knows! Between trading almost every day and holding, of course trading can be more profitable but this is not for everybody as certainly risks are also involved and this is not passive unlike if you just sit back and relax by holding. However, with the way things are with Bitcoin it can surely be stressful.

Words of wisdom from Tom Lee:


https://twitter.com/fundstrat/status/1113163417278406656

Most of BTC's gains are realized over a very short period of time. The rest of the time is spent reverting to the mean, correcting, ranging. So investors who missed the rally need to plan on long term holding (on a time scale of many months or years) to ride out these periods.

There are a lot of people still holding between 2017 and 2018, but it's a shame that they were frustrated by the market and constantly afraid of it. They will be willing to dump when prices go up a bit. I still remember the moment BTC increased to $ 13k, most of them all sold and left this market because they couldn't wait any longer and accept their losses in this market.

You must be firm. However, people aren't have the same approach as you. Or you may be wealthy from behind so that you ain't worrying what would be the market held from time to time. If people have the same attitude as you, I just see a healthy environment. More positivity, I supposed? Full of encouragement, and such things.

Yes, HODL does work.

When talking about my strategy of HODL, for me, I don't judge it on a regular and short term basis, I just have to set a good target and wait until that target will be achieve. For me, HODL means I'll be able to hold for a long term if the right timing has not come yet.

For example, I bought at peak in 2017, that means I am still holding until now, and I will never get panic despite of what would happen to the market.

This is literally the answer to Does Hodl work. I mean, if you were to invest on BTC right now, Timing would be very crucial in terms of determining whether you profit or not, since Having a period where BTC is down in the dumps and cashing out then would go counter the idea of profiteering out of Hodling BTC. Now if BTC actually died off 5 years prior from now, and said trader invests now, then pretty much, everything is lost. His timing was pretty bad and probably just joined crypto market cause of the hype train.

Yes, Of course. according to PlanB, stock to flow model has a 95 percent accuracy when it comes to predicting the price of Bitcoin. the price prediction is based upon how much stock there is and based on how much flow which would be the amount of mining each year. after each having the monetary reward gets cut in half so the stock to flow ratio drastically changes. Utilizing the stock to flow methodology you can predict an upwards of over $120,000 at the peak and then it should settle back down at a true value of $40,000 until the next halving in 2024.

Protip: You can use the website DCA BTC[1] to see how much profit you would potentially make if you bought bitcoin starting at x date, ending at y date, and if you bought them weekly, biweekly, or monthly.

It's honestly a very underrated tool that anyone can use.

P.S. I don't own it nor affiliated with it.

---

[1] https://dcabtc.com/

Aha! I remembered the site I used:

https://uk.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/historical-data

I don't know how far back they go but I downloaded from 2013 from somewhere (it was probably there).

P.S to download, I think you have to make an account.

I'm leaving this here as a reminder for me to look tomorrow for where I downloaded the rates from. I had to reset Firefox due to a corrupted profile so it lost the download link and it was a csv file so it won't have much meta data.

I know I downloaded one for coinbase and bitfinex I just don't remember where but it's much easier for analysis.

It had open, close, high and low.

If you or anyone else is interested in performing more analysis feel free to download the sheets i made

Monthly data > https://drive.google.com/file/d/1d37EW6l0GKkSQfOHGPQEG0hOSvE6QDLT/view
Weekly  date > https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Yy6d_5p-IZ3Bk_JGMccXxj0gqItFGncZ
Daily data > https://drive.google.com/open?id=1ClfjQw0gPay6Pn8MWbC5dkqQVyGetq2Y


You can easily copy-paste the data from the internet and paste it there or make the excel file yourself (not a rocket science  ), but sometimes when you copy and paste to excel things get really messy and require some work, so for those lazy members out there, feel free to use mine.

The best source for this data that I know of is this https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/ , unlike other sources, this allows you get monthly, weekly and daily data ( if anyone is aware of something else that does the same thing please share it). Sadly yahoo finance only stores data from Sep 2014  onward.

I made a spreadsheet around July 2019 to try to see how dollar cost averaging performs on a monthly basis.

I came to the conclusion that anything over 9 months displayed good investment potential with around >12 months being the optimum for safety and a small amount of profit.

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I did no further analysis after that point because it showed the next nine months were going to be quite bad for bitcoin which I didn't think seemed right but as so far turned out to be true (might be interesting to check the numbers though).

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data used was for 2013 to 2019.

That is a bit of a bold statement I would say, there is no absolute certainty that Hodling BTC for over 5 years " say 6 years" would make you "ridiculously good profit", while that has always happened in the past, it might not happen in the future.

Having said that, Hodling bitcoin in the first place should be for the sake of securing the value of your wealth against major crisis that will someday hit the traditional monetary system, at some point comparing bitcoin value against goods and services will make more sense than comparing it to a fiat currency that is losing it's purchasing value on daily bases.

The way I picture it is this, if today I can buy a piece land for say 10 BTC , and if I will be able to do the same thing in 5 years from now, that alone is more than enough, there is really no point in comparing BTC price against the U.S dollar as far as the far future is concerned, if those 10BTC are worth 100k each in 2025 but can't buy you the same house, land or number of Pizza , then it's not worth the Hodling , after all bitcoin is not suppose to make you richer, it's meant to store and maintain the value of your wealth.



I agree, I just wouldn't go Lump sum at any point as many people do, the wise way to invest in BTC is cost averaging IMO, that way you cut down on the risk and avoid depression.

Op, I tried giving you a merit for your post, but I found that I was out of them. 

As you demonstrated, it all depends on when you got into the market as to whether hodling is a viable strategy.  People who'd bought bitcoin back in the day (2015 and earlier, I'd say) and held onto it are still in the green right now and it was obviously the right move on their part.  In hindsight it's obvious, anyway.

The huge uncertainty is the present and the future, tho.  The question is whether buying and holding is the right move *now* and I would say that it is.  Even if you're a short term trader you could have easily made a profit in the past 2 days when bitcoin fell below $7000 and then quickly rebounded.  And for the long term?  I think buying now would be smart, as I believe bitcoin is still very cheap at its current price.

If you’re looking for short term profits then bitcoin might not be a great investment. It’s a very volatile asset & you could lose a lot of money.

Nobody ever HODLED long term & lost money though. I’ve made (unrealised/unsold) profits that I never even thought would be close to reality by HODLING. Bitcoin has & will make my life by HODLING so yes HODLING is a fantastic thing to do.

If you can afford to buy bitcoin & do nothing with it, simply sit on it for anything over 5 years then you will make ridiculously good profit that’s incomparable with any traditional fiat based stock/asset.

Just look at a chart detailing bitcoin’s price movements from the first block mined to the current day. The overall price trend is upwards & will continue to be.

Looking at how "bad" the past 2 years have been for bitcoin, and out of curiosity and because many people don't know if Hodling does or doesn't actually work, I have decided to make an excel sheet and see if Hodling does work for the course of long period of time.

In this study, I imagine average Joe who joined the bitcoin market right at the peak (17/12/2017) and bought his first BTC for $20,089.00, average Joe bought the same amount of bitcoin every month from that time to (17/12/2019) or a total period of 2 years.


Buying Monthly at

Open = $7,621.34
High =  $9,317.24
Low  = $6,297.66
Close= $7,510.18


Average = $7,686.61

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Buying Weekly at

Open = $$7,708.47
High =  $8,268.48
Low  = $6,991.72
Close= $7,595.04


Average= $7,640.93

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Buying Daily at

Open = $7,669.29
High = $7,855.83
Low  = $7,439.93
Close= $7,652.44

Average= $7,654.37

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Taking the monthly statistics, assuming that Joe started after the peak by

1 month  : $7,452.68
2 months :$7,227.29
3 months :$7,121.50
4 months :$7,039.00
5 months :$6,987.10
6 months :$6,913.94


Taking the monthly statistics, assuming that Joe started before the peak by

1 month  : $7,714.05
2 months :$7,630.02
3 months :$7,513.14
4 months :$7,387.53
5 months :$7,230.89
6 months :$7,082.91

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Bitcoin now sits at about 7300$, which means on the average, Joe now is close to break-even point.

with a bit of luck Joe could have sold on July 2019 (5 months ago), at the point his average cost would have been $7,465.47 while the average selling price of that month would have been $10,350.89 and would have made + 38% profit on his investment.

With a bit of bad luck Joe could have sold on Feb 2019, the average cost would been $7,766.56 and sold for $3,729.25 making a loss of - 51.9%.


There is no right answer for this, it pretty much depends on what Joe was going to do with that money if not invest it in bitcoin in the first place. Timing is also crucial, by ignoring the two last scenarios that are based on pure luck, Hodling seems to perform well IMO, if joining around the peak keeps you close break-even, joining at the right time or just far enough from the peak- will most likely put you in profit over a long enough period of time.

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Price history data I used can be found on Finance.Yahoo