Topic: Is Bitcoin Following the 2011 Double Peak Cycle or 2015’s Slow Grind? (Read 108 times)

Yeah, the data is still fairly young, so it's really hard to compare those two cycles, unlike in any other traditional assets wherein they have  a lot of data already and then market analyzed can compare and then make their predictions or speculations.

So regardless though, we can only connect the dots moving backward like in 2017, and some of us are just beginning that time and we really don't know what's going to happened except that we've heard about "Bull run", and the 4 year cycle.

Small sample size. Small sample area. Non replica blend results.

So really, we should not expect any cycle to be the same and any pattern to adhere to is difficult to discern.

I think the ATH pre halving already nullified both OP's paths anyway so we are forging a new path, laying out a new pattern, but I am with a lower amplitude cycle. As I even thought in 2021.

I lean more on the steady rise side for this bullrun cycle.

let us be real in 2011 the market cap was significantly lower, the parabolic rise can definitely happen to BTC again but I think with the mcap being so big like this, steady rise is more realistic, money need to come from somewhere else and even billions of BTC bid can only do so much.

but then again, a rise is still a rise, i'd expect BTC to go to $100k since above ATH there will be small supply zone I guess as long as people don't panic sell.

2011 is too far back to be relied on as a prediction for now.   Very different times back then, its hard to translate that price action with a completely different crosssection of players in the game.

RIght now you have to be optimistic even if we are near former peaks, the lows of this year have not been bad at all.  The worst is not very bad and so you have far more space to aim higher when its not that dangerous in any fall back situation.

50 day crossed over the 200 day again and we are ahead of the 50 week average, long term it looks very good.  Last few months the lows have been higher each time so breaking past resistance on the higher prices is inline.   Right this moment BTC at 72k is near to May and June top, it could be where it rests for a while but it looks positive overall.

It's relevant just to remember how many people underestimate BTC even though the community grows stronger every full cycle.
Thanks! 

That's pretty much how things are now. There weren't a lot of institutional investors before, and with all the updates on regulations, the market behavior has really changed. If you look at it, there haven't been as many pump-and-dump situations over the past year compared to the earlier stages, maybe until 2022. The market’s slowly acting more like a normal investment assets, and that’s a good sign- it shows more people are getting involved.

Not sure if this website, https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/, is relevant to everyone, but if it is, you’ll notice that Bitcoin has "died" way fewer times in recent years compared to before.

This is a pretty good explanation of BTC cycles. I concur that we are in the steady slow rise to ATH and over time the ROI multiplier will lessen with each cycle.

to correct you
2011 was part of the 2009-2012 cycle, 2013 was part of the 2012-2016 cycle
2015 is part of the 2012-2016 cycle, 2017 is part of the 2016-2020 cycle

2011 ATH is due to 1 year after first market
2013 ATH is due to 1 year after first halving
2017 ATH is due to 1 year after second halving

the 2015 lull period is the pre-halving boring period which can be seen happening again in 2019 and again in 2023

the stead rise of 2016-17 was the halving+lead to ATH, which can also be seen in 2012-13 and 2020-21 and yes we are in this period now 2024-25


the patterns emerge due to the economics of the costs of mining that change due to certain fixed events(halving) and then the accounting those with costs do after the halving to then express the prices they need to push to cover those costs after the fact.
its then bots which are trained to follow the pattern, that then enforce the pattern(at first), but then some traders then knowing the pattern is going to occur then trade pre-emptively to the pattern, causing the pattern to move slightly as more and more people learn and try to take advantage of the pattern, thus end up causing trades to change the pattern the more people try to act predictably against the pattern

there will still be the main fixed milestones which will always trigger some movement due to basic underlying economics, but the more traders train their bots to act before during and after the natural triggers, the less pronounced the results get. in short the multiplier height of a ATH or a correction smooths/lengthens out instead of being FOMO moments in short period

Going by some of the history of bitcoin circle, you're going to definitely find or discover some similarities in them, this is because sometime the pattern follows suit on a regular basis while on some cases it is not as the same from the previous ones, but there are thing to deduce when comparing more than two circles together relating to the bitcoin market price and the bullrun run pattern used during those periods.

It's following the second cycle, the 2015-2017 cycle which is surely a slow and steady one as you have already mentioned, You can keep track of this using Bitcoin Cycle Low Multiple chart (https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple) and It's pretty close to where both Era 2 and Era 3 was at this time in the Cycle. I am pretty much convinced that due to it's mathematical structure, Bitcoin will always follow a similar market structure.

Here’s What History Suggests:

As Bitcoin bounces around in its current consolidation phase, there’s a lot of speculation on what could come next. This deep dive into Bitcoin’s past bull cycles offers some clues—and it's looking bullish either way!



Key points from the analysis:

Cycle comparison: The current cycle most closely mirrors two past ones—2011-2013 (the double peak cycle) and 2015-2017 (the slow and steady rise).
Metrics like MVRV ratio & Coin Days Destroyed: These metrics suggest investors are accumulating, just like in previous bullish periods.

No matter which path Bitcoin follows, the outlook is strong. If you're into data-driven analysis, this video breaks it all down:

Watch the full video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRjiAdqW82A

What do you think? Are we headed for another parabolic run, or a slower, more sustained rise? 🤔