Topic: Is Bitcoin’s Next Halving Already Priced In? (Read 98 times)

Agree. Halvings are only one ingredient of Bitcoin's price proposition. Thats why I wrote "partly". The "future value expectation" does of course include also a theory/speculation about Bitcoin adoption, apart from "supply scarcity".

My opinion is that the individual halvings aren't that important for their direct effect on the Bitcoin supply. Each day, hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins are traded on exchanges (300,000 approx in the last 24 hours according to CoinGecko). Miners now generate 450 Bitcoins per day, a supply inflation of 0.002%/day, 0.06%/month and 0.8%/year. In the previous halving cycle the values were twice as high, but for me, at least since 2020 the differences between halving cycles are negligible due to the enormous size of the market. De facto, Bitcoin has already a static supply if we take into account lost coins.

I agree about the psychologic effect though. It is very tempting to think that "45 million USD (450 * 100,000) less needs to be injected each day to keep Bitcoins price stable" really makes a difference on the supply/demand equilibrium. The point is however that the market is huge now, and demand fluctuations due to FOMO and fear are much stronger than these 45 million USD/day.

In addition, the existence of a "post-halving rally" effect for me is still not confirmed. We had strong rallys in 2019 and late 2023 which were unrelated to any halvings. And the late 2024/2025 rally was mostly news-driven, 2017/18 probably was fueled at least in part by Ethereum's ICO bubble.

If halvings were truly priced in four years in advance, we wouldn't see massive bull runs after each one. Market cycles still exist for a reason—supply shocks take time to impact demand dynamics. Maybe OP just wanted to start a good debate? Sure, and I guess next week's lottery numbers are priced in too. History says otherwise—every halving kicks off a new run 

You're right that the halving was already priced in before April 2024, with Bitcoin reaching around $50K by February. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak about 12–18 months after a halving, which aligns with 2025 for a potential ATH. However, do you think macroeconomic factors (interest rates, liquidity, etc.) could alter this cycle, or do you believe Bitcoin will strictly follow past patterns?

I see your point, but while the halving schedule is known in advance and partially priced in, market reactions still vary with each cycle due to new participants, macroeconomic conditions, and changing demand. If halvings were fully priced in from the start, we wouldn’t see the typical post-halving rallies. The psychological and economic effects of a decreasing supply over time seem to still play a significant role.

2024 Halving has occurred precisely in April. In the future, Halving is estimated in April 2028 with a number of calculations that can be done by speculation according to the situation.
If the Bitcoin supply is 21 million, then it is calculated by the number of circulation in circulation, of course it will affect later. But investment in Bitcoin is not just waiting for the moment of Halving to friend.

Is this purely made by OP or assisted by something that indicates that this is not authentic from OP?

Better to start now to not mourn the past.
The present is the best time to invest in BTC. Always. No matter from how far the next halving is, there is a way to be even better - to hodl now, in the future, and in the past 

We never know what's going to happen but I think we already have some clue on about what possibilities that might exist at that time if we base on data's presented on what happen on each halving season of Bitcoin.

But if you want to take part on next halving event better start to accumulate now since if you doubt and wait for that situation before taking action I guess you will say this word that you missed those good opportunity to buy Bitcoin's again just like what other people do here.

bitcoin halvings have typically led to bullish trends due to the reduced supply of new coins. The market is much more mature now and the influx of institutional investors has changed the dynamics. It's possible the price surge might not be as dramatic this time because some of the impact may already be baked into the market. But given bitcoin's scarcity and increasing adoption, I still think it could trigger a notable price movement post halving

Totally.
We even didn't see the rally at full force yet, in my opinion.
No wonder we don't need to think for the next one - this one is still swinging and kicking in  

Funny question to be asking....

Next halving is approximately 4 years away, how can the OP be asking if an event 4
years away is today priced in. Do they not realise this could mean no more ATH's for 4 years?

There are plenty of easily accessible charts which show that historically this has
not happened, each halving has produced a new uptrend and surge into the following one.

So no it isnt priced in.

Abruptly we don't know how many bitcoins to be mined in the next event at the moment because 4 years for it to come is what can't be put to accurate database.
We haven't even seen this circle bull run event yet to discuss about next halving. And yes the halving as being a blockchain mechanism that determines how many bitcoins is mined is strickly to bring increase on bitcoin market by keeping reputations of enhancing bitcoin scarcities so that it potential values would keep being utilizing for users.

Too early to be talking about halving, man. Let’s just enjoy the moment for now.

Bitcoin has already increased significantly since the last halving, just like in previous cycles. For the next one, we still have more than 3 years to wait, so discussing its effects now isn’t that interesting especially since everyone already expects Bitcoin to rise more.

What we should be focusing on is how high Bitcoin can go before the halving. If it hits $250K, that would already be a good milestone for the market.

Lol, we just had the halving last year, and for the record the next one will be in 2028? So what kind of question is this? How can you factored it today when it will not occur in the next 3 years. Is that how investors are right now? I thought we are beginning smart here but it seems that some of us are moving backward with this kind of mindset? So the obvious answer here is that it's not priced in as it will take years before we know. And throughout Bitcoin's history, the next halving is the catalyst for a bull run so expect that the price is going up in the next cycle.

Are you still at 2024? Didn't you see how BTC gone up from 50k - 70k range to the 100k - 108k range after its block halving?

Your question is a non sense thing. You have to get into the time machine, then back to the 2025 as you're living now, not the past year.

If you're willing to talk about the next halving, kindly wait three years later, then back here.

Coming up? Its in about April 2028 so it is not coming up

Maybe this is some AI that gave you some broken information, if not could you post the link to some of those lots of debates because this is the first time in the past 11 years that I would be seeing people talking about next halving 2-3 years before the date.

In any case the effects of previous halving is just starting to show up in the market. The next halving will have its effect show up from late 2028 to early 2029.

The demand will always be high especially after the supply decreases. This scarcity makes investors want to buy bitcoin and they are all scrambling to buy one. These past few weeks maybe even months, there have been talks of the cycle being disrupted meaning there will be no more price increases but also there will be no more price decreases. No bull cycle, no bear cycle.

From what I have seen, people are crediting this to the what Trump is doing or plans to do with bitcoin. But I do not want to come into conclusion this early. I still believe that the cycles will continue on and that in the next halving, there will be yet another price increase.

LOL. Due to the wording of the OP, I guess this is a post of a badly constructed bot who copied some old post from early 2024 (please correct me if not). Okay, I think as the OP is participating actively in the debate this can be discarded probably.

But the question is actually quite interesting. One could argue that some people justify their investment in Bitcoin with the complete "halving schedule" which leads to a fix supply of 21 million around 2140. And that could have accelerated the price increase of the last 15 years.

In other words: all upcoming halvings could already be priced in (at least partly), because if Bitcoin had a less deflationary schedule, the price would not have increased so strongly.

the halving already happened in april 2024
the price pre halving had good natural value of $25k and then priced in the halving at $50k by february 2024 meaning it did price in good value before the halving

since then were are now moving into the part of the cycle of bull run testing a cycle upmost top ATH that usually happens a yearish after halving, meaning 2025
and no we are not near the top yet

As you can see, every 4 years before block halving, it always led to a price surge because it's a proven cycle of BTC, and the price of Bitcoin always depends on the supply and demand, so it's normal to see the price increase again after block halving.

Like you said, after block halving, the block reward will split again into half, meaning supply would drop, and if the demand is high, then expect a bullish price just like what happened last year. This would happen again after the next block halving.

With the next Bitcoin halving coming up, there’s a lot of debate on whether the price surge is already factored in or if we’ll see another big bull run afterward. Historically, halvings have led to price increases due to reduced supply, but with more institutional investors and a maturing market, is this cycle going to be different?

What do you think—will the halving still have a major impact, or has the market already priced it in?