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Topic: Is BitFUnix and the Tether dollar USDT about to crash the Bitcoin market? (Read 7040 times)

legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
...And as long as Bitfinex and Tether aren’t redeeming USDT for USD, their bank accounts can stay well hidden. The short-lived USD/EUR banking through a third party account at a small Polish bank......that was just for show.
It looks like Tether has actually redeemed 30M $ of USDT for the first time. The outstanding supply
of USDT has dropped from 2.25 billion USDT to 2.22 billion USDT.

If the outflows of several USDT wallets of the biggest altcoin exchanges are any indication,
we can expect additional redemptions of USDT in the next few days
(see my post in the Wall Observer Thread for the details: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.29314991).

Maybe. I don't think it's that useful to speculate either way. With a centralized ledger like Tether, granting/redeeming USDT takes the click of a button, not the movement of real money. And at this point, $30M is just 1% of the outstanding supply. That supply inflated from virtually zero over a period when Tether and Bitfinex haven't been able to service wires. People have been waiting in the KYC queue for over a year now on Tether.to. There are countless reports of people unable to redeem USDT, who are told by Tether to sell it on one of their "partner exchanges" instead. And I'm hearing rumors that Bitfinex's Polish bank account (through Crypto Capital) has been closed. That seems likely: https://www.reddit.com/r/bitfinex/comments/7tm8rl/bitfinex_vs_bitstamp_support_tickets_518257_572764/

It's just not rational to have any involvement whatsoever with Tether or Bitfinex at this point. It doesn't matter how much USD they have "in reserves" or if a limited number of customers are able to cash out occasionally. When you consider why they were virtually blacklisted by the banking industry, and then you consider how long Uncle Sam's reach is (as they subpoena Bitfinex/Tether).....it looks bad.

Once the banking industry essentially blockaded them (and this was probably done at the behest of the US government), they became a de facto rogue exchange. They’ve got a massive target on their back. Anyone denying that is naive.

They already were firmly rogue. There isn't an exchange still going with such a chequered past and so much mystery surrounding it. After all this time virtually nothing is known about its true ins and outs.


Last year, we could have pointed to BTC-e as another example. We know how that turned out. Tongue
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3015
Welt Am Draht
Once the banking industry essentially blockaded them (and this was probably done at the behest of the US government), they became a de facto rogue exchange. They’ve got a massive target on their back. Anyone denying that is naive.

They already were firmly rogue. There isn't an exchange still going with such a chequered past and so much mystery surrounding it. After all this time virtually nothing is known about its true ins and outs.

They painted the target on their own back. It didn't need to be there. It was placed there by their own actions.
sr. member
Activity: 658
Merit: 282
...And as long as Bitfinex and Tether aren’t redeeming USDT for USD, their bank accounts can stay well hidden. The short-lived USD/EUR banking through a third party account at a small Polish bank......that was just for show.

...



It looks like Tether has actually redeemed 30M $ of USDT for the first time. The outstanding supply
of USDT has dropped from 2.25 billion USDT to 2.22 billion USDT.

If the outflows of several USDT wallets of the biggest altcoin exchanges are any indication,
we can expect additional redemptions of USDT in the next few days
(see my post in the Wall Observer Thread for the details: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.29314991).
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
How can they do that if theres no FUD campaign to bring it down? So they close one of the main exchanges, ban tether, say it was a fraud and hence, ban all crypto-currencies, but only temporary so that people sell it to them, then unban it and turn their game on. Then you will have Dimons and Buffets saying they were right the whole time, or saying that now bitcoin is a "safe investment" like stocks and PMs.

Well, if that is the case then Bitfinex gift wrapped it for them. They were stunningly stupid not to either go 100% legit or shut up shop and go away. There's no realistic choice beyond those two. They can't keep operating in a grey area. Those days are gone.

Once the banking industry essentially blockaded them (and this was probably done at the behest of the US government), they became a de facto rogue exchange. They’ve got a massive target on their back. Anyone denying that is naive.

The problem for both the US government and Bitfinex/Tether is the money in custody. If the BTC-e takedown (and subsequent relaunch as WEX) taught us anything, it’s that most of the crypto holdings can’t be seized. And as long as Bitfinex and Tether aren’t redeeming USDT for USD, their bank accounts can stay well hidden. The short-lived USD/EUR banking through a third party account at a small Polish bank......that was just for show.

How long can this last? I don’t know. I do know that the attempted shutdown of BTC-e was a complete embarrassment for the US government. So, there’s that. A USDT collapse/exchange shutdown/exit scam or combination thereof is probably likely. The question is when. It could be a while yet.
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823
...
Two months later the FUD is turning out to becoming real from the perspective that Bitfinex is maintaining Bitcoin's high price by printing USDT and using that to buy Bitcoin.

But does Bitfinex really have that much of an influence in the whole Bitcoin market? I do not believe so.

the FUD by OP was never real and will never become true. as i said before OP is just spreading it at certain times with different topics because he wants to make money, stupidly i should add. and it is not just tether, not long ago he was advertising the shit out of Bitcoin Cash and how that is going to kill "SegWit coin" (as he called it), only because at that time bcash was getting pumped.

Let us stay with the argument and not attack the character of the OP just because you disagree with his argument.

By the way if you have not read the latest news, Bitfinex was given a subpoena by a US regulator for questioning about Tether and USDT.

Quote
not to mention that bitcoin price is generally higher on Coinbase than it has been on bitfinex. so how can bitfinex be "maintaining high price of bitcoin" where USDT is not even on coinbase? plus there have been a lot of other places with higher prices such as the Korean exchanges which had $1000-$2000 higher price than USD markets! with bigger volume too.

Bad argument. Maintaining Bitcoin's price does not have to make it higher than the rest of the exchanges.
member
Activity: 259
Merit: 18

Interesting that the supoena was on December 6th, but the news of it has only been released now. Bitcoin is down by 10%, but appears to be holding around $10k - must be a lot of buy orders just under $10k.

Lots of bulls are trying to call it "old news" and therefore unimportant. As if the CFTC closing in on Bitfinex/Tether in December is so much better news than if it happened in January. After December 6th, Chris Ellis (Bitfinex employee) removed warrant canaries from his profile and went dark. Then Tether dissolved its relationship with Friedman LLP. Clearly, the situation is coming to a head, as much as people want to plug their ears and pretend it's not happening.

Bitfinex has given the the US government lots of reasons to come after it (unlicensed money transmission, issuing and trading unregistered securities, etc).....but the CFTC is probably getting increasingly involved in the space because of the CBOE/CME/other regulated futures markets. The CFTC now has a much stronger mandate to oversee spot manipulation. I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop enforcement actions on exchanges like Bitfinex.

On unlicensed money transmission, are you saying that Bitfinex does not have a money transmitters license??? How do you know this?
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3015
Welt Am Draht
How can they do that if theres no FUD campaign to bring it down? So they close one of the main exchanges, ban tether, say it was a fraud and hence, ban all crypto-currencies, but only temporary so that people sell it to them, then unban it and turn their game on. Then you will have Dimons and Buffets saying they were right the whole time, or saying that now bitcoin is a "safe investment" like stocks and PMs.

Well, if that is the case then Bitfinex gift wrapped it for them. They were stunningly stupid not to either go 100% legit or shut up shop and go away. There's no realistic choice beyond those two. They can't keep operating in a grey area. Those days are gone.
sr. member
Activity: 1400
Merit: 347
Bitfinex has given the the US government lots of reasons to come after it (unlicensed money transmission, issuing and trading unregistered securities, etc).....but the CFTC is probably getting increasingly involved in the space because of the CBOE/CME/other regulated futures markets. The CFTC now has a much stronger mandate to oversee spot manipulation. I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop enforcement actions on exchanges like Bitfinex.


Thats because CME/CBOE were to "tame" bitcoin, and they cant do it with Bitfinex issuing tethers which, supposedly, would be pumping the price of bitcoin.

They want the price of bitcoin down. They want it to be 1k. That what futures is all about, to crash it so that Wall Street can buy it cheap, and then turn it into a institutional game, like stocks and PMs. A game were they always win and the average Joe always lose.

How can they do that if theres no FUD campaign to bring it down? So they close one of the main exchanges, ban tether, say it was a fraud and hence, ban all crypto-currencies, but only temporary so that people sell it to them, then unban it and turn their game on. Then you will have Dimons and Buffets saying they were right the whole time, or saying that now bitcoin is a "safe investment" like stocks and PMs.

legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521

Interesting that the supoena was on December 6th, but the news of it has only been released now. Bitcoin is down by 10%, but appears to be holding around $10k - must be a lot of buy orders just under $10k.

Lots of bulls are trying to call it "old news" and therefore unimportant. As if the CFTC closing in on Bitfinex/Tether in December is so much better news than if it happened in January. After December 6th, Chris Ellis (Bitfinex employee) removed warrant canaries from his profile and went dark. Then Tether dissolved its relationship with Friedman LLP. Clearly, the situation is coming to a head, as much as people want to plug their ears and pretend it's not happening.

Bitfinex has given the the US government lots of reasons to come after it (unlicensed money transmission, issuing and trading unregistered securities, etc).....but the CFTC is probably getting increasingly involved in the space because of the CBOE/CME/other regulated futures markets. The CFTC now has a much stronger mandate to oversee spot manipulation. I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop enforcement actions on exchanges like Bitfinex.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1088
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!

Interesting that the supoena was on December 6th, but the news of it has only been released now. Bitcoin is down by 10%, but appears to be holding around $10k - must be a lot of buy orders just under $10k.
sr. member
Activity: 882
Merit: 269
This is a high rate of clash we have ever witnessed since the beginning of this months as we have not even see the end yet.  Usdt may be a tools in the hands of the elites that there want to used to clash some major cryptocurrency. I think we should still hold our position as now is still the bad times for one to sell his coins!
member
Activity: 259
Merit: 18
member
Activity: 259
Merit: 18
Tether has a Market Capitalization of about 2 billions. That is not really much these days in the world of cryptocurrencies.
Bitfinex has a trading volume of bitcoin of about 7%.
Why all those doomsday fantasies? What am I missing?


Tether is on loads of exchanges.

It's 2 billion of fresh capital. Most other volumes are old money being recycled that never leaves exchanges.

That makes a USDT multiple times more powerful than a USD you see on Coinmarketcap.

Precisely. The massive market cap numbers do not truly reflect what is going on. Real numbers are much lower and USDT is surely playing a dirty game here.
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3015
Welt Am Draht
Tether has a Market Capitalization of about 2 billions. That is not really much these days in the world of cryptocurrencies.
Bitfinex has a trading volume of bitcoin of about 7%.
Why all those doomsday fantasies? What am I missing?


Tether is on loads of exchanges.

It's 2 billion of fresh capital. Most other volumes are old money being recycled that never leaves exchanges.

That makes a USDT multiple times more powerful than a USD you see on Coinmarketcap.
hero member
Activity: 959
Merit: 500
Tether has a Market Capitalization of about 2 billions. That is not really much these days in the world of cryptocurrencies.
Bitfinex has a trading volume of bitcoin of about 7%.
Why all those doomsday fantasies? What am I missing?
full member
Activity: 280
Merit: 105
It this stage it seems to be just a case of will it or won't it and that comes down to if it turns out bitfinex and tether have been used to manipulate the market with no actual reserves or not. I don't think this is something we're going to find the answer to anytime soon unless there's some sort of exit scheme. It will be interesting to watch the usdt/usd price
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3015
Welt Am Draht
If people stopped trading on Bitfinex, and traded instead on other exchanges against USD, we wouldn't have this problem.

But looking at coinmarketcap, Bitfinex is still the #2 exchange by volume. People need to switch to Bitstamp or Gemini. At least on those exchanges you know you are trading with real money.

No mention of the alts? Tether underpins huge volumes on multiple alt exchanges now. It's gone far beyond being Bitfinex's wee bit of fun.

So here's an alternate thought, if Ifinex went up in smoke it is conceivable some other consortium could take on Tether's liabilities and run it in a less offensive manner?

I believe they have the dollars. I also believe their utter contempt for due diligence will ensure they're eventually ravaged rather than being caught with their financial pants down. If it had stayed in the tens of millions no one would notice but it's in the billions now. That never goes unpunished.
legendary
Activity: 2128
Merit: 1293
There is trouble abrewing
If people stopped trading on Bitfinex, and traded instead on other exchanges against USD, we wouldn't have this problem.

But looking at coinmarketcap, Bitfinex is still the #2 exchange by volume. People need to switch to Bitstamp or Gemini. At least on those exchanges you know you are trading with real money.

well according to coinmarketcap.com that is only 6% of total volume, which is yet again another proof that people are giving bitfinex so much more attention and fake power than it deserves.

and it raises an important question, can an exchange with only 6% volume of a 170 billion dollar market have that kind of effect?!!
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1088
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If people stopped trading on Bitfinex, and traded instead on other exchanges against USD, we wouldn't have this problem.

But looking at coinmarketcap, Bitfinex is still the #2 exchange by volume. People need to switch to Bitstamp or Gemini. At least on those exchanges you know you are trading with real money.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1137
...
Two months later the FUD is turning out to becoming real from the perspective that Bitfinex is maintaining Bitcoin's high price by printing USDT and using that to buy Bitcoin.

But does Bitfinex really have that much of an influence in the whole Bitcoin market? I do not believe so.

the FUD by OP was never real and will never become true. as i said before OP is just spreading it at certain times with different topics because he wants to make money, stupidly i should add. and it is not just tether, not long ago he was advertising the shit out of Bitcoin Cash and how that is going to kill "SegWit coin" (as he called it), only because at that time bcash was getting pumped.

not to mention that bitcoin price is generally higher on Coinbase than it has been on bitfinex. so how can bitfinex be "maintaining high price of bitcoin" where USDT is not even on coinbase? plus there have been a lot of other places with higher prices such as the Korean exchanges which had $1000-$2000 higher price than USD markets! with bigger volume too.
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823
Well shit. This happened 2 morning months ago and nothing happens so it looks like all is well. Even with the NYT story breaking the market is unaffected.

the only reason why this topic was created by OP (who is permabanned for spamming but still has alt accounts and spams same bullshit) is because at the time he was trying to short bitcoin and he was losing money as bitcoin price kept going higher. soon after this topic was created price went up another 30% and in a month $2000 was broken. and the rest is history. and all the while OP was saying bitcoin will crash down to $600 again Cheesy

in the end even if tether collapses, bitcoin won't be harmed. maybe 2 weeks to 1 month of downtime with a 20% drop tops happens but that won't be because of USDT, it will be because of FUD and since bitcoin price is not sustained by USDT but with USD, JPY, CNY, RUR, EUR, GBP and those are not collapsing the price of bitcoin will continue on its way.

Where is iamnotback these days? I thought he was another doomsday crackpot who loves spreading FUD in the forum. But in truth some of his thoughts and "theories" have been right.

Does anyone know if he has a blog or a website?
he is still around with different account names spreading the same FUD as ever Cheesy
he is like an intense version of kwukduck
here is one of his many alts: https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/hypermesh-1112762

Two months later the FUD is turning out to becoming real from the perspective that Bitfinex is maintaining Bitcoin's high price by printing USDT and using that to buy Bitcoin.

But does Bitfinex really have that much of an influence in the whole Bitcoin market? I do not believe so.
member
Activity: 259
Merit: 18
Would love to see this thread revived right about now. Bump for justice.
newbie
Activity: 1
Merit: 0
I believe iamnotback's posts are fringing on being conspiracy theories than FUD in my opinion. But taken in the right context some of them are already happening, like his beliefs on Bitfinex for example.
"in the right context"....meaning current circumstances?

I've been thinking about the Tether/BFX situation for the past few weeks and I can't rid myself of concern.

  • Bitfinex is in bed with Tether (managerial structure has previously been posted in this thread), and Bitfinex is currently the largest crypto exchange by volume. As of right now, their cold wallet is the largest single bitcoin wallet in existence (
  • Tether has no obligation to redeem USDT tokens for money. While this phrasing can be construed as clever wording to avoid being classified as securities....it also leaves any USDT holders in the dust if Tether decides to tell everyone to go shove it
  • A document released by Tether claiming to be an "audit" is not an audit at all. It is generally an auditor's job to express an opinion on whether the statements conform to the rules of accounting. This was not the case. Friedman LLP, the law firm that produced the document, provided a snapshot of a single point in time of a bank account related to Tether. There is explicit language in that document stating that Friedman LLP makes "no reservations about [Tether's] ability to access funds" and that they do not "express an opinion on whether the statements conform to the rules of business accounting". They could have wired money into an account the day before the "audit" and wired money back out the next day.

I stand a lot to gain from bitcoin succeeding, but I'm also troubled by this situation. The BTC bull run leading up to it breaking $10k has put it into the greater public's eye more than ever before, and another Mt Gox scenario could severely damage bitcoin's reputation. Bitcoin's price is no longer dictated by cypherpunks who can easily shake off an exchange going down because they're able to see the greater good. Mass adoption will not happen in a decentralized way if the public is worried about everyone stealing their money. It will happen through intense regulation from existing governments, unless we are able to govern ourselves and kill any fraudulent cancers like the one that Tether may be.
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823

Where is iamnotback these days? I thought he was another doomsday crackpot who loves spreading FUD in the forum. But in truth some of his thoughts and "theories" have been right.

Does anyone know if he has a blog or a website?
he is still around with different account names spreading the same FUD as ever Cheesy
he is like an intense version of kwukduck
here is one of his many alts: https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/hypermesh-1112762

I believe iamnotback's posts are fringing on being conspiracy theories than FUD in my opinion. But taken in the right context some of them are already happening, like his beliefs on Bitfinex for example.

On the contrary, kwukduck is an artless fudster without any care if he is right or wrong.
legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 3614
what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?
Where is iamnotback these days? I thought he was another doomsday crackpot who loves spreading FUD in the forum. But in truth some of his thoughts and "theories" have been right.

Does anyone know if he has a blog or a website?

https://medium.com/@shelby_78386

https://busy.org/@anonymint

https://steemit.com/@anonymint

https://github.com/shelby3
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1137
Well shit. This happened 2 morning months ago and nothing happens so it looks like all is well. Even with the NYT story breaking the market is unaffected.

the only reason why this topic was created by OP (who is permabanned for spamming but still has alt accounts and spams same bullshit) is because at the time he was trying to short bitcoin and he was losing money as bitcoin price kept going higher. soon after this topic was created price went up another 30% and in a month $2000 was broken. and the rest is history. and all the while OP was saying bitcoin will crash down to $600 again Cheesy

in the end even if tether collapses, bitcoin won't be harmed. maybe 2 weeks to 1 month of downtime with a 20% drop tops happens but that won't be because of USDT, it will be because of FUD and since bitcoin price is not sustained by USDT but with USD, JPY, CNY, RUR, EUR, GBP and those are not collapsing the price of bitcoin will continue on its way.

Where is iamnotback these days? I thought he was another doomsday crackpot who loves spreading FUD in the forum. But in truth some of his thoughts and "theories" have been right.

Does anyone know if he has a blog or a website?
he is still around with different account names spreading the same FUD as ever Cheesy
he is like an intense version of kwukduck
here is one of his many alts: https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/hypermesh-1112762
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823
Where is iamnotback these days? I thought he was another doomsday crackpot who loves spreading FUD in the forum. But in truth some of his thoughts and "theories" have been right.

Does anyone know if he has a blog or a website?
member
Activity: 168
Merit: 10
Put it all on the line and go for broke
Well shit. This happened 2 morning months ago and nothing happens so it looks like all is well. Even with the NYT story breaking the market is unaffected.
sr. member
Activity: 658
Merit: 282

Why would they have any interest in doing this? As far as I know, BTC-E was shut down by US agencies, because of the heavy involvement
of the exchange in money laundering (e.g. of ransomware proceeds) and other criminal activities.
However, Bitfinex doesn´t seem to be involved in this and therefore I think that the USA are not even investigating them.
Bitfinex may have lost their banking partners due to the USA and their regulations, but I really don´t see an exchange shutdown.

Bitfinex operates out ot Hong Kong and accordingly I´d expect the local authorities to lead the crack down. If I remember correctly,
Mtgox was also closed by the local Japanese authorities and not by US agencies.

wgd
legendary
Activity: 1815
Merit: 1005
The tethers are probably uncovered true usd, many people already see that bitcoin was inflated with fictitious money

http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL

next 25mln usdt on board

According to the official Tether "transparency" website the total amount of issued USDT has reached a
staggering 364 million $.

https://wallet.tether.to/transparency

How long can this behavior continue? What would be the level of Bitcoin price without these
fake money being funneled into the market at critical times? Is there a remote possibility that these
newly issued USDT are actually backed by real money by institutional investors?

https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/are-fraudulent-tethers-being-used-for-margin-lending-on-bitfinex-5de9dd80f330

until the USA turn off bitfinex light  Cool
sr. member
Activity: 658
Merit: 282
The tethers are probably uncovered true usd, many people already see that bitcoin was inflated with fictitious money

http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL

next 25mln usdt on board

According to the official Tether "transparency" website the total amount of issued USDT has reached a
staggering 364 million $.

https://wallet.tether.to/transparency

How long can this behavior continue? What would be the level of Bitcoin price without these
fake money being funneled into the market at critical times? Is there a remote possibility that these
newly issued USDT are actually backed by real money by institutional investors?
wgd
legendary
Activity: 1815
Merit: 1005
The tethers are probably uncovered true usd, many people already see that bitcoin was inflated with fictitious money

http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL

next 25mln usdt on board
sr. member
Activity: 658
Merit: 282
Bitcoin price is falling heavily, and what? We have another reprint, 20m usdt goes to market ...  Shocked Roll Eyes

http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL

Is there any way to check, if the Tether already ended up on the Bitfinex lending market or the Bitfinex order book?
Additionally, I´m surprised that USD/BTC at Bitfinex is trading more than 80 $ lower than USD/BTC at Bitstamp.
Could this be an indication that most of the selling today has taken place at Bitfinex? Or what has caused
this difference and why hasn´t it been "corrected" due to people taking advantage of the arbitrage opportunity?

Something seems very off to me and the Tether issuance today only intensifies my doubts!
wgd
legendary
Activity: 1815
Merit: 1005
Bitcoin price is falling heavily, and what? We have another reprint, 20m usdt goes to market ...  Shocked Roll Eyes

http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL
newbie
Activity: 1
Merit: 0
Famous last words. How can you know what Bitfinex is doing? How can you know what the true reserves of Tether's USDT really are?
How can you know what is bitstamp doing?
How about Kraken?
How about the biggest altcoin exchange out there, Poloniex?

Did you not click the links in the OP about the recent news stories?
I am well aware of the news, their bank, the withdrawal, ... that is why I said what I said.

The risks, that you are raising today is a drama and nothing more. because nothing has changed in the past 6 or so years with bitcoin exchanges. they are still the same shady businesses that can run away at any moment.

the question is why spread the drama now?

Because people absolutely love drama : before some lunatics kept on predicting the end of the world as a punishment from God. And then, now that doesn't make any sense, they go for imminent market crashes, etc.   lol! Really...
sr. member
Activity: 980
Merit: 255
my understanding is that you have joined the FUD team against bitcoin. maybe a temporary phase but that is what's happening in my opinion.

bitcoin price is not gonna drop unless bitfinex runs away. which is not at all likely. if they wanted to run away they would have done it after the hack not now. not after they paid their users back.
even if they run away, it will be a short drop exactly like when their exchange platform was hacked and price dropped.
I don’ know, people that use FUD most of the time don’t bring too many arguments to the table and just keep repeating the same thing over and over like a mantra, any user reading the forums must be worried that Bitfinex close its doors or scams its users since that mens the price is going to get lower it is as simple as that.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1088
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It might. The amazing thing is how much volume of trading is still being done on Bitfinex:

https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

It's the second biggest exchange. If people could shift their volume to other more stable exchanges, then if bitfinex goes kaput it won't really matter.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
Looks like there are even pages on twitter already called Bitfinex'ed inspite of Gox'ed. Seems that Tether is worth (manipulated) 0,93usd inspite of 1 usd. Crypto keeps being more and more fun. All eyes on LTC now. Rekaton will occur and history will be written by the victor once again.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
Because Bitfinex is making news that they can pay back the former thefts which no one thought to be mathematically possible, so it means that Bitfinex is trying to raise confidence so more people will put their money there, so it indicates they need money. It also indicates they stole the money from Peter to pay Paul. The likely source of the money is perhaps coming from printing USDT out-of-thin-air.

The conversion of BFX tokens to shares of Bitfinex completed and was the catalyst for full token redemption on the exchange. Interestingly, the amount of capital raised is 54513657[1]. This number is quite close to the total authorized line and, since Bitfinex is associated, I have to wonder whether there's any connection.

I've been opposed to the idea of a pegged unit well before Coinapult had its "locks" and still view such a system with suspicion for anything beyond very short-term utilization.

[1] https://bnktothefuture.com/search/pitches

Is your thought process including the possibility that USDT was issued surreptitiously by paying USD to themselves, then traded to repurchase the BFX tokens which were subsequently redeemed for equity in Ifinex? With the final redemption of remaining BFX tokens by paying themselves.

While it is true Ifinex is the parent company of Bitfinex, they are also a subsidiary of another company. DigIfinex is the name of this conglomerate, which has relations with RenRenbee Limited, Tether Holdings Limited, and various other Bitcoin corporations. No big surprises there, although it makes one wonder how useful ownership in Ifinex will be in the long run.


(chart of alleged corporate structure)

So a possible scenario which could explain recent events is Bitfinex pretending to be blocked from sending USD so as to force those who want to trade BTC to USD to either trade for USDT or move BTC to an exchange which can do USD withdrawals. So if exchanges have fractional reserves of BTC, then Bitfinex for example could be employing the hypothesized USDT hoard to purchase BTC to maintain sufficient reserves for increased (possibly accelerating) BTC withdrawals. The rapidly accelerating BTC price over the past days concomitant with the widening USD/USDT spread could potentially be explained this way, combined with specifically timed miner manipulation of the public confidence leading to wild price swings. OKCoin blocked USD deposits, which could potentially have the motive of increasing perceived legitimacy of Bitfinex's claim, and more plausibly to block Bitfinex withdrawals in BTC from being exchanged for USD on OKCoin (since no new USD can enter to offer on bid) thus to keep more cows locked inside the hypothesized  USDT slaughterhouse of this hypothesized speculative explanation.

Knowing that Bitfinex is having trouble processing USD means that in order to leave the exchange, you must first buy a digital currency and move the money off. For most people, this is just easier than dealing with the current USD restrictions.

Although it's unlikely the bullish move is entirely due to users exiting the exchange, it likely plays a role and may partly explain why Bitfinex's price is so much higher than the other exchanges.

If Bitfinex and USDT default, would Poloniex also default? Thus far, the evidence presented by @tunctioncloud seems to suggest that Poloniex's exposure is small. But what if there is a generalized stampede of withdrawals from exchanges employing USDT as the only mechanism for trading BTCUSD pairs. Could there be a domino effect on Poloniex if Bitfinex defaults? I'm trading tokens on Poloniex so I am genuinely concerned. I'd appreciate all well reasoned discussion of this matter.

I cannot rule out suspect activity on the part of Bitfinex through use of USDT. There are questions about Poloniex as well, though again uncertain about the veracity. I do not think Poloniex would default and the relative holdings of USDT are minor compared to other coins, the exchange being primarily crypto-crypto and explicitly showing USDT as such whereas Bitfinex only displays it as USD.

Regardless, I am highly cautious at this point regarding having funds on exchanges. If Bitsquare had volume, I would certainly be using that instead of most others.
legendary
Activity: 1241
Merit: 1005
..like bright metal on a sullen ground.
Tether supplied increased by 125% since early march. That must be how they paid back everyone and have managed to stay afloat despite the BTC withdrawals. Also, they have a history of trading on their own exchange, I'm sure they are naked long now.

I wonder how long this is gonna last.

chart here: http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL

asset there:

http://omnichest.info/lookupsp.aspx?sp=31
http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL

10M USD were created out of thin air 3 days ago

People buying it are litterally gifting btc to finex LOL



Hmmm... I gotta admit the timing of the token buy back is very fishy. If they wanted to buy back with imaginary tether usd a good time would be right before all the usd gets trapped inside the exchange (IIRC the token buy back happened days before the fiat stoppage).

The thing is the balance of their btc wallet was up about the same percentage since early march. So they might have just issued more tether usd because of the overall crypto bull run since then.

https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r×pan=60days

newbie
Activity: 29
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Tether supplied increased by 125% since early march. That must be how they paid back everyone and have managed to stay afloat despite the BTC withdrawals. Also, they have a history of trading on their own exchange, I'm sure they are naked long now.


I would be long too if i had the firepower of finex and 34k BTC shorts to eat. As long as this is under wraps.
hero member
Activity: 723
Merit: 503
Tether supplied increased by 125% since early march. That must be how they paid back everyone and have managed to stay afloat despite the BTC withdrawals. Also, they have a history of trading on their own exchange, I'm sure they are naked long now.

I wonder how long this is gonna last.

chart here: http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL

asset there:

http://omnichest.info/lookupsp.aspx?sp=31
http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL

10M USD were created out of thin air 3 days ago

People buying it are litterally gifting btc to finex LOL

member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
woah that's a lot of money
I think the doom rumors for USDT are played up beyond the reality.

There would be severe negative consequences for the operators of the USDT service regardless of any disclaimer if they somehow defaulted.

I could be wrong, but I don't see it. For every usdt to usd transaction they do they charge $20 or .001% whichever is higher.

It's not a huge profit but it's nearly free money and it allows some exchanges to get around certain legal complications with trading USD.


Who knows? There is obviously going to be a psychological effect seeing the price spread between usdt and usd on bitfinex but so-far I haven't heard anybody claiming that tether.to hasn't honored their USDT with a 1:1 withdraw parity.

Has anybody successfully converted USDT to USD?
legendary
Activity: 1241
Merit: 1005
..like bright metal on a sullen ground.
Is BitFUnix and the Tether dollar USDT about to crash the Bitcoin market?


Ironically the worse the future looks for Tether the higher the price of bitcoin goes on bitfinex, as users scramble for the exits. It's almost like someone planned this  Wink
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 501
If anything, USDT is the scam coin which will ultimately collapse. The Bank of England could not prevent George Soros from making a one way bet against the British Pound whilst in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. USDT is not backed by a central bank AFAIK, so eventually someone won't be able to prop up its value if the market decides to bet against it. Pegged crypto's rely on the belief of stupidity, better to own the fiat instead.
legendary
Activity: 1245
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Bitcoin will go $2000 this year or 2018, Kim Dotom will release Bitcache and Megaupload 2.0 and it will be a mainstream success, this will hype up the price to $2000 for sure. Can't risk a future moon ticket trying to short the market so I will stay as I am now. I have holded thought worse crashes.
Which crash where? We are at $1200

Tehter numbers, they reduced their marketcap for the first time, and like -10% just to go up now again on a new ATH.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1028
Bitcoin will go $2000 this year or 2018, Kim Dotom will release Bitcache and Megaupload 2.0 and it will be a mainstream success, this will hype up the price to $2000 for sure. Can't risk a future moon ticket trying to short the market so I will stay as I am now. I have holded thought worse crashes.
sr. member
Activity: 440
Merit: 250
And even about Bitfinex, I have some doubts. They would not "crash" the market, but instead would maybe create a small drop in value, of about 100$, in case they run away. Which seems doubtful to me.

USDT is used on Poloniex also!

Yes, but for several reasons it does not frighten me, even though I am a rather active trader on Poloniex.
- Poloniex is known as an altcoin exchange, and people trading USDT there are only doing it to diversify to Bitcoin, not the inverse. That it why the USDT market is so little on Poloniex.
- As I said, it is quite little, and not very exposed. Few people use it and the volume is small compared to the rest of the site.
- It would ruin only people using USDT, and it would probably not taint Poloniex's reputation since the fault would be rejected on Tether. Moreover, Bitcoin market price not being made at Poloniex, the collateral effect would be very small I guess.

As I wrote, perhaps we need to wait a while before USDT is more widely used until a default might occur. This timing is one issue I wanted to discuss.

How can you view the volume of USDT on Poloniex?

Sure you know the answer, since you have stated the volume is low.

You view it by going on Poloniex page, in the very top bottom, there is the daily volume in all the currencies, including USDT, which today is 9 973 707 USDT. I did not say that it was low, but low compared to the rest of the site, since there has been in the meantime a volume of 65 483BTC, which is worth 78 250 000$, a lot more.
legendary
Activity: 1316
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Because Bitfinex is making news that they can pay back the former thefts which no one thought to be mathematically possible, so it means that Bitfinex is trying to raise confidence so more people will put their money there, so it indicates they need money. It also indicates they stole the money from Peter to pay Paul. The likely source of the money is perhaps coming from printing USDT out-of-thin-air.

The conversion of BFX tokens to shares of Bitfinex completed and was the catalyst for full token redemption on the exchange. Interestingly, the amount of capital raised is 54513657[1]. This number is quite close to the total authorized line and, since Bitfinex is associated, I have to wonder whether there's any connection.

I've been opposed to the idea of a pegged unit well before Coinapult had its "locks" and still view such a system with suspicion for anything beyond very short-term utilization.

[1] https://bnktothefuture.com/search/pitches
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
Of course not. tUSD and whatever else peg are separate entities from bitcoin and the way they pave has close to no effect on bitcoin's longlivity, as well as its markets. If they were to go through a rough patch, certainly people would lose money through those trust based systems but bitcoin markets unnafected by them would survive and outlast them.  

Why do you say that if $54 million of Bitcoin investors' (speculators') money was "poof, it's gone", that Bitcoin's price wouldn't crash?

The Bitfinex hack caused a -33% crash. Mt. Gox caused a -90% crash.

So $54 million compared to the $70 million lost in the Bitfinex incident.

However, given USDT is backing store for two exchanges, one might contemplate how it might impact margin trading and whether it could cause a cascade of forced liquidations that would exceed the reserves in the system. In other words, the 2.5x leverage in Poloniex is actually fractional reserves if the markets move too fast.
legendary
Activity: 2422
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Of course not. tUSD and whatever else peg are separate entities from bitcoin and the way they pave has close to no effect on bitcoin's longlivity, as well as its markets. If they were to go through a rough patch, certainly people would lose money through those trust based systems but bitcoin markets unnafected by them would survive and outlast them. 
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
https://wallet.tether.to/transparency

That link purportedly shows the total balance of all tether.to holdings.

Yes I had seen that. So $54 million compared to the $70 million lost in the Bitfinex incident.

However, given USDT is backing store for two exchanges, one might contemplate how it might impact margin trading and whether it could cause a cascade of forced liquidations that would exceed the reserves in the system. In other words, the 2.5x leverage in Poloniex is actually fractional reserves if the markets move too fast.

I haven't figured it all out yet.

But it may be a smoldering problem that isn't yet ready to strike.
member
Activity: 70
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woah that's a lot of money
https://wallet.tether.to/transparency

That link purportedly shows the total balance of all tether.to holdings.


sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
You malign me, because you don't see the connections. Ostensibly because you aren't so astute or you have an agenda against me.

in that case i am ending this argument here since i am too dumb (according to you) and too lazy to open thesaurus.
good day.

The thread is intended to be a discussion, not an argument. You made it personal by maligning me. It is possible to state your ideas or opinions without impugning the other.

There you go again dropping implied insults by insinuating that I use a Thesaurus.

I am still waiting to read your cogent explanations. I doubt they will be forthcoming.

More logic, more facts, more real work, less useless unproductive elbows and acrimony.
legendary
Activity: 2128
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There is trouble abrewing
You malign me, because you don't see the connections. Because you aren't so astute.

in that case i am ending this argument here since i am too dumb (according to you) and too lazy to open thesaurus.
good day.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
And even about Bitfinex, I have some doubts. They would not "crash" the market, but instead would maybe create a small drop in value, of about 100$, in case they run away. Which seems doubtful to me.

USDT is used on Poloniex also!

Yes, but for several reasons it does not frighten me, even though I am a rather active trader on Poloniex.
- Poloniex is known as an altcoin exchange, and people trading USDT there are only doing it to diversify to Bitcoin, not the inverse. That it why the USDT market is so little on Poloniex.
- As I said, it is quite little, and not very exposed. Few people use it and the volume is small compared to the rest of the site.
- It would ruin only people using USDT, and it would probably not taint Poloniex's reputation since the fault would be rejected on Tether. Moreover, Bitcoin market price not being made at Poloniex, the collateral effect would be very small I guess.

As I wrote, perhaps we need to wait a while before USDT is more widely used until a default might occur. This timing is one issue I wanted to discuss.

How can you view the volume of USDT on Poloniex?

Sure you know the answer, since you have stated the volume is low.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
Famous last words. How can you know what Bitfinex is doing? How can you know what the true reserves of Tether's USDT really are?

How can you know what is bitstamp doing?
How about Kraken?
How about the biggest altcoin exchange out there, Poloniex?

I already told you that Poloniex does all trades to USD in USDT. Go to Poloniex and look for yourself if you don't believe me.

Those other exchanges don't apparently use USDT by default. But Bitfinex and Poloniex do, so that is a lot of speculator money that could go poof if USDT is ever found to be fraud. Speculators would refuse to buy USDT, so its value would plummet.

Did you not click the links in the OP about the recent news stories?

I am well aware of the news, their bank, the withdrawal, ... that is why I said what I said.

Which news are you referring to specifically and do you know how it applies to what I wrote in the OP? Explain your understanding.

The risks, that you are raising today is a drama and nothing more. because nothing has changed in the past 6 or so years with bitcoin exchanges. they are still the same shady businesses that can run away at any moment.

the question is why spread the drama now?

Because Bitfinex is making news that they can pay back the former thefts which no one thought to be mathematically possible, so it means that Bitfinex is trying to raise confidence so more people will put their money there, so it indicates they need money. It also indicates they stole the money from Peter to pay Paul. The likely source of the money is perhaps coming from printing USDT out-of-thin-air.

And the news about Wells Fargo blocking their wire transfers is another warning sign that a default is developing.

You malign me, because you don't see the connections. Ostensibly because you aren't so astute or you have an agenda against me.
legendary
Activity: 2128
Merit: 1293
There is trouble abrewing
Famous last words. How can you know what Bitfinex is doing? How can you know what the true reserves of Tether's USDT really are?
How can you know what is bitstamp doing?
How about Kraken?
How about the biggest altcoin exchange out there, Poloniex?

Did you not click the links in the OP about the recent news stories?
I am well aware of the news, their bank, the withdrawal, ... that is why I said what I said.

The risks, that you are raising today is a drama and nothing more. because nothing has changed in the past 6 or so years with bitcoin exchanges. they are still the same shady businesses that can run away at any moment.

the question is why spread the drama now?
sr. member
Activity: 440
Merit: 250
And even about Bitfinex, I have some doubts. They would not "crash" the market, but instead would maybe create a small drop in value, of about 100$, in case they run away. Which seems doubtful to me.

USDT is used on Poloniex also!

Yes, but for several reasons it does not frighten me, even though I am a rather active trader on Poloniex.
- Poloniex is known as an altcoin exchange, and people trading USDT there are only doing it to diversify to Bitcoin, not the inverse. That it why the USDT market is so little on Poloniex.
- As I said, it is quite little, and not very exposed. Few people use it and the volume is small compared to the rest of the site.
- It would ruin only people using USDT, and it would probably not taint Poloniex's reputation since the fault would be rejected on Tether. Moreover, Bitcoin market price not being made at Poloniex, the collateral effect would be very small I guess.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
r0ach sees a downtrend because he became a bitcoin hater after getting caught in a bad trade, but I still see an uptrend if we draw other lines. You can draw any lines you want to fit you expectations.

Show me. Using TradingView.com please to make a accurate chart.

I think uptrend is clear. I dont want to move to USD and tell banks I own BTC so I will hold any dips.

I don't either. Holding a 30% dip leaves a lot of BTC that could be had, on the table.

That is why so many traders are using USDT, so that means it is huge centralized vulnerability in the Bitcoin ecosystem! Even more huge than Bitfinex. On par with Mt. Gox.

And even about Bitfinex, I have some doubts. They would not "crash" the market, but instead would maybe create a small drop in value, of about 100$, in case they run away. Which seems doubtful to me.

USDT is used on Poloniex also! The Bitfinex hack caused a -33% crash. Mt. Gox caused a -90% crash.

I would guess maybe a USDT failure will come later when BTC is at nosebleed prices again. Perhaps not enough Bitcoiners use USDT yet, so give it more time to become more widely used.
sr. member
Activity: 440
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I do not think they are about to crash the Bitcoin price for the sole reason that you are putting both of them in the same answer. Because while I see some potential troubles coming with Bitfinex, I see absolutely none with Tether.

And even about Bitfinex, I have some doubts. They would not "crash" the market, but instead would maybe create a small drop in value, of about 100$, in case they run away. Which seems doubtful to me.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
my understanding is that you have joined the FUD team against bitcoin. maybe a temporary phase but that is what's happening in my opinion.

Raising a legitimate concern and phrasing it as a question is FUD  Huh

bitcoin price is not gonna drop unless bitfinex runs away. which is not at all likely. if they wanted to run away they would have done it after the hack not now. not after they paid their users back.
even if they run away, it will be a short drop exactly like when their exchange platform was hacked and price dropped.

Famous last words. How can you know what Bitfinex is doing? How can you know what the true reserves of Tether's USDT really are?

Did you not click the links in the OP about the recent news stories?
legendary
Activity: 2128
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There is trouble abrewing
my understanding is that you have joined the FUD team against bitcoin. maybe a temporary phase but that is what's happening in my opinion.

bitcoin price is not gonna drop unless bitfinex runs away. which is not at all likely. if they wanted to run away they would have done it after the hack not now. not after they paid their users back.
even if they run away, it will be a short drop exactly like when their exchange platform was hacked and price dropped.
legendary
Activity: 868
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r0ach sees a downtrend because he became a bitcoin hater after getting caught in a bad trade, but I still see an uptrend if we draw other lines. You can draw any lines you want to fit you expectations.
I think uptrend is clear. I dont want to move to USD and tell banks I own BTC so I will hold any dips.
sr. member
Activity: 336
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