Is everyone on the edge of their seats?

molecular

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Quote from: Jaques on February 22, 2013, 11:44:03 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on February 21, 2013, 03:18:12 PM

Quote from: molecular on February 21, 2013, 03:15:34 PM

Such an audit is actually pretty simple to do using the blockchain (just publish cold storage address(es)). I remember after the mtGox hack that MagicalTux prooved to be in possesion of 4424,242.42424242 BTC by moving them in the blockchain. It's not like rival banks have to demand to see all the silver or something.

That tells you how many Bitcoins mtgox (say) are holding but doesn't tell you the amount of bitcoins they claim to be holding if you sum all the deposits.

good point

a better way might be to have one address per customer account, so each customer could audit his finds. kind of similar to numbered gold bars

Jaques

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Quote from: Richy_T on February 21, 2013, 03:18:12 PM

Quote from: molecular on February 21, 2013, 03:15:34 PM

Such an audit is actually pretty simple to do using the blockchain (just publish cold storage address(es)). I remember after the mtGox hack that MagicalTux prooved to be in possesion of 4424,242.42424242 BTC by moving them in the blockchain. It's not like rival banks have to demand to see all the silver or something.

That tells you how many Bitcoins mtgox (say) are holding but doesn't tell you the amount of bitcoins they claim to be holding if you sum all the deposits.

good point

piramida

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Quote from: molecular on February 21, 2013, 03:15:34 PM

Such an audit is actually pretty simple to do using the blockchain (just publish cold storage address(es)). I remember after the mtGox hack that MagicalTux prooved to be in possesion of 424,242.42424242 BTC by moving them in the blockchain. It's not like rival banks have to demand to see all the silver or something.

That is a nice story, missed it! Yes, auditing BTC banks would be trivial.

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Quote from: molecular on February 21, 2013, 03:15:34 PM

Such an audit is actually pretty simple to do using the blockchain (just publish cold storage address(es)). I remember after the mtGox hack that MagicalTux prooved to be in possesion of 4424,242.42424242 BTC by moving them in the blockchain. It's not like rival banks have to demand to see all the silver or something.

That tells you how many Bitcoins mtgox (say) are holding but doesn't tell you the amount of bitcoins they claim to be holding if you sum all the deposits.

molecular

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Quote from: Rygon on February 21, 2013, 01:25:53 PM

Quote from: molecular on February 21, 2013, 01:26:53 AM

technically it is compatible. Think for example you have some ripple banks offering bitcoin. They could FRB. hell, mtGox could be FRBing right now. It's all about transaction cost. If something comes along that is treated by the public and accepted "as if it was a bitcoin" and its transaction/storage cost are even lower than bitcoins, then FRB will likely happen.

+1

If mtGox (or any exchange for that matter) ever starts offering interest on coins deposited by giving out loans in BTC, we should all be very afraid of FRB. Not that I think they would do something so brash, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear that the amount of BTC on mtgox at any given time is some crazy number like 100K+.

Similarly, it could also happen with payment processors that deal with large amounts of BTC and merchants who prefer to keep their balance at the payment processors.

We shouldn't fight FRB, it happens naturally in any currency system. However, we should demand audits on entities who store BTC long-term that have the capability and a profit motive to engage in FRB.

Such an audit is actually pretty simple to do using the blockchain (just publish cold storage address(es)). I remember after the mtGox hack that MagicalTux prooved to be in possesion of 424,242.42424242 BTC by moving them in the blockchain. It's not like rival banks have to demand to see all the silver or something.

This means that it's easy for some "institution" to proove to the customers/public that it's indeed adhering to its own reserve rules and therefore the market participants can decide for themselves wether or not to put their money with those people or not.

Richy_T

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Quote from: Rygon on February 21, 2013, 01:25:53 PM

We shouldn't fight FRB, it happens naturally in any currency system. However, we should demand audits on entities who store BTC long-term that have the capability and a profit motive to engage in FRB.

Nah, all we need is those entities to be up-front that they are offering FRB and for people to understand the risks. Anything they can offer up to mitigate those risks should be considered as well but not necessarily required.

Rygon

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Quote from: molecular on February 21, 2013, 01:26:53 AM

technically it is compatible. Think for example you have some ripple banks offering bitcoin. They could FRB. hell, mtGox could be FRBing right now. It's all about transaction cost. If something comes along that is treated by the public and accepted "as if it was a bitcoin" and its transaction/storage cost are even lower than bitcoins, then FRB will likely happen.

+1

If mtGox (or any exchange for that matter) ever starts offering interest on coins deposited by giving out loans in BTC, we should all be very afraid of FRB. Not that I think they would do something so brash, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear that the amount of BTC on mtgox at any given time is some crazy number like 100K+.

Similarly, it could also happen with payment processors that deal with large amounts of BTC and merchants who prefer to keep their balance at the payment processors.

We shouldn't fight FRB, it happens naturally in any currency system. However, we should demand audits on entities who store BTC long-term that have the capability and a profit motive to engage in FRB.

molecular

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Quote from: Severian on February 20, 2013, 05:52:59 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on February 20, 2013, 05:33:55 PM

Define FRB. The kind I'm aware of is not incompatible with bitcoin.

My definition might differ from others but it cuts through the frufru: The monopoly granted by the State to a private cartel to issue credit.

Bitcoin can coexist with FRB as it is now just fine. If Bitcoin continues to grow, FRB won't be able to compete. I should have been more clear in what I was trying to say: FRB and Bitcoin can't coexist in the long run anymore than an egg can coexist with a steamroller while in its path.

Quote

I do think Bitcoin could hasten the onset of hyperinflation. If it becomes a mature and respected method of payment, the government may have to accelerate printing to cover its debts (which doesn't work in the long term). Looking at hyperinflation in the Weimar republic, it's possible that Bitcoin is introducing a factor that was otherwise missing.

Agreed. We're in pre-hyperinflation right now. Money is losing its value quickly but is still used as a means of exchange. Bitcoin as a more or less honest measure of something (which is more than can be said of FRB) will be the contrasting factor that could induce some inflationary moments in the next couple of years.

I'm sorta looking forward to it, oddly.

you are probably correct: Bitcoin is to the US Dollar what the US Dollar is to the Bolivar.

Soon enough the US govt will be engaging in large-scale price-fixing, accusing merchants of greed.

molecular

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Quote from: Richy_T on February 20, 2013, 05:33:55 PM

Quote from: Severian on February 20, 2013, 05:27:22 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on February 20, 2013, 05:18:07 PM

Bitcoin can be combined with fractional reserve banking. It's monetary base inflation to infinity that it kills.

I don't see how they could coexist in the long run if Bitcoin keeps growing at this rate. Bitcoin will crush FRB if left to its own devices.

Define FRB. The kind I'm aware of is not incompatible with bitcoin.

I do think Bitcoin could hasten the onset of hyperinflation. If it becomes a mature and respected method of payment, the government may have to accelerate printing to cover its debts (which doesn't work in the long term). Looking at hyperinflation in the Weimar republic, it's possible that Bitcoin is introducing a factor that was otherwise missing in our current scenario compared to that one.

technically it is compatible. Think for example you have some ripple banks offering bitcoin. They could FRB. hell, mtGox could be FRBing right now. It's all about transaction cost. If something comes along that is treated by the public and accepted "as if it was a bitcoin" and its transaction/storage cost are even lower than bitcoins, then FRB will likely happen.

Severian

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Quote from: payb.tc on February 20, 2013, 06:57:28 PM

i think you are confusing fractional reserve banking with the [us] federal reserve bank

All FRB has followed the model I describe, going back to the Bank of England in 1694. The Fed is no different. The State/Crown grants monopoly power to a private cartel to issue the nation's credit and dependent currency. We're all in debt to the same cartel that uses our own money against us.

This 1943 letter by some British Nobel prize winners and various scholars and businessmen lays out the scam nicely:

Quote

...Under the world's present ﬁnancial system the money, except for a now
triﬂing portion, is originally created by the issue of a loan at interest by the
"bankers", who lend nothing of themselves but in effect make a forced levy in
kind on the Nation by conferring on the borrower the power to purchase a
corresponding amount of wealth on the market, which wealth does not belong to
them, or those who borrow from them, but to the community. The proceeds of the
issue of new money - whether of paper or any other form of credit money -
belong to the Nation in which it is, or is accepted as, legal tender, and not to the
issuer. Herein lies the basic ﬂaw of the existing monetary system.

Demand for Monetary Reform: 1943 letter

The scam of "I'll lend you something I don't really have so you can pretend to be rich while you're actually in debt to me" is as old as money itself. We keep falling for it.

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Quote from: payb.tc on February 20, 2013, 06:57:28 PM

i think you are confusing fractional reserve banking with the [us] federal reserve bank

+1

payb.tc

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i think you are confusing fractional reserve banking with the [us] federal reserve bank

Severian

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Quote from: Richy_T on February 20, 2013, 05:33:55 PM

Define FRB. The kind I'm aware of is not incompatible with bitcoin.

My definition might differ from others but it cuts through the frufru: The monopoly granted by the State to a private cartel to issue credit.

Bitcoin can coexist with FRB as it is now just fine. If Bitcoin continues to grow, FRB won't be able to compete. I should have been more clear in what I was trying to say: FRB and Bitcoin can't coexist in the long run anymore than an egg can coexist with a steamroller while in its path.

Quote

I do think Bitcoin could hasten the onset of hyperinflation. If it becomes a mature and respected method of payment, the government may have to accelerate printing to cover its debts (which doesn't work in the long term). Looking at hyperinflation in the Weimar republic, it's possible that Bitcoin is introducing a factor that was otherwise missing.

Agreed. We're in pre-hyperinflation right now. Money is losing its value quickly but is still used as a means of exchange. Bitcoin as a more or less honest measure of something (which is more than can be said of FRB) will be the contrasting factor that could induce some inflationary moments in the next couple of years.

I'm sorta looking forward to it, oddly.

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Quote from: Severian on February 20, 2013, 05:27:22 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on February 20, 2013, 05:18:07 PM

Bitcoin can be combined with fractional reserve banking. It's monetary base inflation to infinity that it kills.

I don't see how they could coexist in the long run if Bitcoin keeps growing at this rate. Bitcoin will crush FRB if left to its own devices.

Define FRB. The kind I'm aware of is not incompatible with bitcoin.

I do think Bitcoin could hasten the onset of hyperinflation. If it becomes a mature and respected method of payment, the government may have to accelerate printing to cover its debts (which doesn't work in the long term). Looking at hyperinflation in the Weimar republic, it's possible that Bitcoin is introducing a factor that was otherwise missing in our current scenario compared to that one.

Severian

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Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on February 20, 2013, 05:18:07 PM

Bitcoin can be combined with fractional reserve banking. It's monetary base inflation to infinity that it kills.

I don't see how they could coexist in the long run if Bitcoin keeps growing at this rate. Bitcoin will crush FRB if left to its own devices.

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Quote from: Severian on February 20, 2013, 05:11:01 PM

Or maybe by then Bitcoin will have succeeded in its mission of destroying all fractional reserve currencies .

Bitcoin can be combined with fractional reserve banking. It's monetary base inflation to infinity that it kills.

Severian

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Quote from: arepo on February 20, 2013, 04:24:35 PM

what will happen when the influx of new money stops, though?

I don't think it will ever stop. If Bitcoin is still running in 40 years and the block reward is down to satoshis, bitcoins will be worth so much that even selling the satoshis will be profitable. Or maybe by then Bitcoin will have succeeded in its mission of destroying all fractional reserve currencies and we're all not worrying so much about money but about things that matter.

A guy can dream, anyway.

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Quote from: molecular on February 20, 2013, 04:52:21 PM

Can't explain it, but I'm surprisingly calm. I'm even looking at the charts less frequently than usually.

Exactly. The market should be truly overbought once we actually reach the "euphoria" phase. I haven't seen it yet. I haven't felt it yet.

The reason might be that as long as we stay below the all time high, all of this is not that big of a deal. Once we go over the all time high, everything changes. Then we enter a territory where I can imagine getting excited.

Not that I'm not slightly excited already because we're so close to the all time high. But that would be a real game changer.

Rygon

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Quote from: fcmatt on February 19, 2013, 08:55:24 PM

Quote from: bitcon on February 19, 2013, 08:49:37 PM

no, i'm on the yacht i talked about two years ago when i got into bitcoin. lulz!

We need mr buttcoin back. Buttcoin.org

I love that Bitcoin has a full-time troll with it's own website. I go over there for a laugh every once in a while.

molecular

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Quote from: Richy_T on February 19, 2013, 04:06:15 PM

Well, are you?

Can't explain it, but I'm surprisingly calm. I'm even looking at the charts less frequently than usually.

piramida

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Quote from: arepo on February 20, 2013, 04:24:35 PM

the hype is the same, the market feels different. more mature. the selloffs aren't causing panic. the buying pressure is strong and consistent. what will happen when the influx of new money stops, though?

Two possibilities. Either new money influx stops, or the influx of new money *really* starts? Like, tens of millions investment sizes - and it very well could happen even inside a very high risk portfolio. Choosing between that and everyone else besides people who already invested in bitcoins losing interest, I pick the optimistic version.

That of course does not mean that big money would start buying everything at offer price quadrupling the price to triple digits; there will be many less stupid moves still, and going down very well might be one of them, just don't hold your breath for a correction to single digits, not going to happen this year.

wormbog

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Quote from: arepo on February 20, 2013, 04:24:35 PM

Quote from: Severian on February 19, 2013, 07:06:40 PM

Quote from: evolve on February 19, 2013, 04:18:51 PM

Nope. Just watching a bubble be a bubble.

The bubble was the summer of 2011. This growth has been sustained and appears to be sustainable as more people adopt Bitcoin.

+1

the hype is the same, the market feels different. more mature. the selloffs aren't causing panic. the buying pressure is strong and consistent. what will happen when the influx of new money stops, though?

That will mean BTC holders are no longer willing to trade for fiat and the global takeover is complete.

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: Severian on February 19, 2013, 07:06:40 PM

Quote from: evolve on February 19, 2013, 04:18:51 PM

Nope. Just watching a bubble be a bubble.

The bubble was the summer of 2011. This growth has been sustained and appears to be sustainable as more people adopt Bitcoin.

+1

the hype is the same, the market feels different. more mature. the selloffs aren't causing panic. the buying pressure is strong and consistent. what will happen when the influx of new money stops, though?

Spekulatius

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Quote from: fcmatt on February 19, 2013, 08:55:24 PM

Quote from: bitcon on February 19, 2013, 08:49:37 PM

no, i'm on the yacht i talked about two years ago when i got into bitcoin. lulz!

We need mr buttcoin back. Buttcoin.org

He´'s there but can't come to the keyboard right now, .., still busy.

evolve

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daytrader/superhero

He still posts on SA, I think.

fcmatt

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Quote from: bitcon on February 19, 2013, 08:49:37 PM

no, i'm on the yacht i talked about two years ago when i got into bitcoin. lulz!

We need mr buttcoin back. Buttcoin.org

bitcon

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no, i'm on the yacht i talked about two years ago when i got into bitcoin. lulz!

TooCasual

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You can't be Serious?!?

HAHA

shows your age with that photo (using Gene Wilder). Grin

Willy Wonka: [making a mysterious BTC formula] Invention, my dear friends, is 93% perspiration, 6% electricity, 4% evaporation, and 2% butterscotch ripple.

Willy Wonka: [into Bears ear, singing softly] A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: TooCasual on February 19, 2013, 07:41:32 PM

...ahh that's what you mean.

TooCasual

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You can't be Serious?!?

Umm....

Blue is what is for sale... and.... Orange is what people want. More demand than supply? Hmm. Price goes up!

Where is the crash happening? MtGox server? ...ahh that's what you mean.

TC

fcmatt

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I thought gpu mining was dying but this pop in price has made it awesome again. Selling almost daily. The crash will be hilarious tho.

ElectricMucus

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I smell bacon Wink

evolve

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We'll see... Grin

TooCasual

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You can't be Serious?!?

Quote from: Severian on February 19, 2013, 07:06:40 PM

The bubble was the summer of 2011. This growth has been sustained and appears to be sustainable as more people adopt Bitcoin.

+1 Totally agree...

These are real supply and demand prices (.2-.5% population knowledge, company backing, BitPay etc, etc..) of BTC. Not the unknown (0.01% population) 2011 geeky fad. No bubble here... Damn ole bears. This IS a global currency.

TC.

Ps. Methinks the Bears are praying like hell for a *pop* so they can buy BTC at cheap rates... *laughs* Good Luck with that.

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Quote from: evolve on February 19, 2013, 04:18:51 PM

Nope. Just watching a bubble be a bubble.

The bubble was the summer of 2011. This growth has been sustained and appears to be sustainable as more people adopt Bitcoin.

humanitee

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Quote from: adamstgBit on February 19, 2013, 05:03:02 PM

i'm ~~waiting~~ praying for the "WHY WHY WOULD SOMEONE SELL 50K BITCOIN RIGHT B4 30 Cry

" thread

ftfy

adamstgBit

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i'm waiting for the "WHY WHY WOULD SOMEONE SELL 50K BITCOIN RIGHT B4 30 Cry

" thread

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Quote from: evolve on February 19, 2013, 04:18:51 PM

Nope. Just watching a bubble be a bubble.

When it pops, then I'll be on the edge of my seat.

+1

Richy_T

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For me, it's not so much the 30, it's the teasing it's doing hanging around in the 29s. Really, I'm in this long-term and couldn't really care what it does until the bitcoin economy gets more solidly established. It's fun though.

SaintFlow

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The first is by definition not flawed.

or let me rephrase:

I see the community growing.
But you will not see me jumping YUUUUUUUUHHHHHHHUUUUUUUU
because the community is growing.

evolve

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Nope. Just watching a bubble be a bubble.

When it pops, then I'll be on the edge of my seat.

jimbobway

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Not really. Bigger events have occured in bitcoin history that have kept me on edge. I guess I have been jaded by being with bitcoin for over two years.

SaintFlow

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The first is by definition not flawed.

I don't get it. Why should I.

All this hype just makes me yawn

bitcoin is because bitcoin
what do i care how other currency reflects
on its awesome shinny surface

humanitee

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Hell yeah! History in the making!

Richy_T

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Well, are you?

Topic: Is everyone on the edge of their seats? (Read 4125 times)