Topic: Is it possible that Bitcoin becomes quiescent? (Read 368 times)

if later the supply of bitcoin runs out, of course these bitcoin miners will be very frustrated because miners will receive redward from a block with a very small amount that is only enough to pay the electricity bill from the mining results, and when this event happens it all depends on what bitcoin protocol they will be increase the supply of bitcoin, maybe if they don't add it I think this is the end of the bitcoin concept.

Oh, we meet again. Spamming, even more, are we? Vomiting out more mess over the forum? You make me sick. You have no self-respect and honestly, are you proud of yourself? You don't deserve to be paid for a single one of your posts.

Posting without thinking again.... Yes he designed the crypto so it would always work, you don't need bitcoins to mine when there are 21 million bitcoins (minus burnt ones) in circulation in transactions all the time. Plenty to go around.


I agree with you that bitcoin is not as suited as it could be for daily transactions but that is ok since we can just use it for bigger purchases and leave the small stuff like a cup of coffee to lite coin or doge XMR or whatever you prefer. For me, bitcoin does it's job and it does it well. Why do say mining gives you control of your own transactions? You don't choose which transactions to mine. Or do you mean you know that there will always be mining support for the transactions since you are contributing to the mining yourself? Gold is an ancient asset I don't see how bitcoin can be compared since it is a currency and gold was replaces long ago as a medium of trade. I don't understand your second paragraph it's beyond me so no comment this time. xP

Using a transaction is not only in the form of reality. You can see daily transactions on coinmarketcap, how many bitcoins are in the top 3 for cryptocurrency transactions around the world. That indicates that bitcoin is still needed and will continue to be needed as the development of technology from the blockchain.

We will never know what will happen in the future, but we can only be speculative if there are currently more and more bitcoin users, it is likely that bitcoin will continue to grow in the future.

If we are going to look at bitcoin during those times where technology has already advanced massively and cryptocurrency is just a common currency, we can say that bitcoin may end up being quescent. Bitcoin has been mined for so long and there are some experts telling us that at some point of time, it will become inactive. Having that worst case scenario, we should be thankful because we may get to live in a world where bitcoin will still be mined and only those who lives on those years will experience the worst thing that may happen to bitcoin.

I think the system of blockchain would make it work for those people who will be mining bitcoin in the future. As they mine blocks, it will just circulate making its value stay still or go higher if lots of transactions will be made. On the other hand, there's also a possibility that bitcoin would be quiscent as time passes by. It will end up being like fiat which has a small growth of value from time to time. Though that's the case, we should just focus on what we have right now and on what we can achieve in the future, let fate decide on what will happen to bitcoin as we vanish in this world.

lol when adoption comes people will not storing bitcoin already because surely they will use this as transaction material.

we are storing this for now as we are looking for adaptation since thats the start that Bitcoin will reach the highest value it can ever had.

but right after that?the Bitcoins will be in circulation and may be used together with the legit altcoins

If Bitcoin is store of value, it's certainly safe to say it has acceptance. As long as it has the acceptance, a lot of transaction will be confirmed daily. Look at the below attached image. Current daily average confirm is almost 300k, at its peak, it was more than 450k. Within 2130, I guess the acceptance will increase massively, hence the number of transaction as well. Therefore, if people will use it as store of value, people will also use it as medium of payment. I guess the daily average transaction by that time will increase to at least 100x or no transaction as like Satoshi Nakamoto speculated (Thank you Theymos for promoting the brilliant quotes of Satoshi).

You don't mine Bitcoin, you mine blocks, and you receive a reward from a diminishing pool. There are three incentives for miners in my opinion, the award from the diminishing pool, the transaction fees, and the convenience of transaction handling. Bitcoin is not really efficient for small daily transaction, and this has resulted in the rise of side chains and ATMs. The owners of these services could well become miners to gain a bit of control of their transactions. Transfers between large investment houses need to be performed away from the exchanges, and this could be an incentive for such houses to start mining. Similar considerations apply when countries start to pay for tanker loads of oil with Bitcoin. It already happens with gold, and Bitcoin is a natural alternative. All of these may be handled by private  mining investment houses.

Will Bitcoin become quiescent? Well it depends on your interpretation of Bitcoin. Will it become dormant? My belief is that it will continue to grow in importance. Will it become quiet? The answer to this is almost certainly yes. You just need to look at the old British Empire to realise how it will happen. Most people believe that the British Empire is no longer in existence, but the truth is far more disturbing. The wealth was transferred into pyramids of holding companies in offshore tax havens. This is often referred to as the "veil of tiers", and central banks were invented to allow the old dynasties to purchase most of the world assets through QE, and other mechanisms. It still exists as an Anglosphere empire, and you only need to look at the Brexit manipulation to realise this. Never underestimate their creativity, and some people believe that Bitcoin is their creation. We know that they are building great wealth through Bitcoin, but we don't know how they will be using this. If they create their own mining factories, and restrict transaction address acceptance to known associates, then non-elites will have to rely on a few independent miners, or pay high fees to be accepted by the investment miners.

In my opinion there will still be transactions but with the consequence transaction costs will be high because that is the market law.
The smaller the number of transactions, the higher the transaction costs and vice versa. But I'm sure bitcoin in the future is not only an asset for wealth, but is also used as a universal payment tool in all sectors.
Because on the other hand there are still many altcoins that might still be able to coexist with bitcoin.

That's a long way to go and we are not there anymore to see what would be the scenario and the events that's going to happen after all Bitcoin are mined, but our next generation of holders and miners will have a fix for this, maybe in the future, future generation will have free electricity, because inventors and creators keeps inventing to the betterment of humanity, I'm sure electricity and power will be one of them.

There is a possibility but the chances are low. Being dormant relies on public demand, and we cannot tell but of Bitcoin would still improve over that time, like faster transactions and overall improvements in performance, then it might not happen. By that time, technology would also improve such as having faster and cheaper mining components that would make mining profitable even only with transaction fees.

That question is asked pretty often. No one can exactly say what will happen but I think situation will go like this:
At some point bitcoin is similar to gold, it has miners too like bitcoin. When all gold will be mined, employees will be out of job (maybe? or start digging in different and different places) --- when all bitcoin will be mined, miners won't be out of job. Because here we have transaction fees which needs miners to confirm it. Nowdays tx fee doesn't seem huge in usd yeah? But what about if bitcoin rises and becomes for example 100K and even more? Just imagine, then transaction fees which currently seems for example 500$, will be 50 000$ which is pretty amazing and close to mining reward.

I also think like that, what if bitcoin has run out in the mines, are there no more miners, but after I thought again, surely Satoshi Nakamoto designed bitcoin in such a way that this crypto will always go according to circumstances.

Yes, It would be really a problem to the crypto community if the remaining bitcoins will already mined then it would be really become a huge problem because the produces of bitcoin will be lessen as well as the transaction in which this transaction is one of the very most important factor, because just what like you've said transaction fees are the rewards for the bitcoin that has been mined. But I think after this happens or maybe in the year 2130, bitcoin will stiill function and work because many people will still operate and use bitcoin so probably bitcoin will still work until that year comes.

Perhaps after all coins are mined it would make sense to increase the block size to let more transactions in = higher payout for miners.

There is still very little reward for miners until you are willing to invest heavy amount on mining hardware and electricity bills. In my view when all BTC are mined by 2140 then transaction fee will be adjusted in a way to compensate nodes that are taking care of the BTC network.

Rewards are smaller, but the smallest pieces will become more expensive with higher transaction cycles, this will always be understood in every consensus that takes place. Even if there is an exodus from miners,they will understand that the network will continue to be involved in adjustment mode, so that bitcoin will continue to reflect circulation positively and develop better than before.

With the current 18 million supply and $8800 worth, there are billions of volumes, therefore there will be much more than that in 2130. If the bitcoin was the only coin on the market, it could be right but the use of bitcoin to get others, and the possibility of being useful as a future payment, rejects what you say. Years later, there is even the possibility that it will be used instead of the states' money.

Most likely not, the market will not allow it to be in the same price for a long time.

This was my fear with the introduction on the side-chain technologies like the Lightning Network too, because most transactions will move off-chain and then there will be a significant drop in the on-chain transactions in the future.

Looking at it now, I realize that channels needs to be opened and closed and those actions will generate transactions in the future. A lot of other projects will also use smart contracts and these transactions will be done on-chain, so these projects will stimulate transactions in the future.

Bitcoin is just one giant experiment and a lot of businesses built their business around it, so I doubt that they would just leave it to die, they might create a mining project, just to maintain their core business, even if that is not profitable.  

This question has been asked several times.

I think it is going to be in the year 2140 and not in 2130 when the last Bitcoin will be mined. That is an estimate however. That is going to be more than a century from now. And so we will never be able to witness that significant day. Since it is happening at least 10 decades from now, I assume that by that time Bitcoin has already become a major currency in the world. That means the coin is already being accepted as a currency by billions of people and hundreds of millions, if not a billion, of merchants as well. That would mean that miners depending on transaction fees will not necessarily be poorer in terms of reward than they are receiving now. That is going to be worth it considering that millions of Bitcoin transactions will have to be broadcast to the network on a daily basis. Moreover, the block reward by 2140 is already lower than the smallest denomination of Bitcoin, which means it is lower than a single Satoshi. I don't know how it will be called but it might not be as juicy compared to the rewards given years or decades earlier.   

This is just an imagined scenario and I am sure by that time (a more than a hundred years from now) Bitcoin has already evolved a lot and there is a chance that today's Bitcoin can be so radically different by that time. Anyway, I am sure that a better way can be done for this seemingly problem. Remember that Bitcoin just started in 2009 and we are talking here of a possible problem that can occur in 2140 so for me I better not think so much about it, this is just a waste of time. In most probability,  Satoshi Nakamoto could have surfaced at that time and he can be the one solving this problem. And I am just kidding...

Even if people hodling bitcoin consider it as store of wealth, there is still a huge transaction that can happen, how could this be? There's a lot of traders around the world that utilizes cryptocurrency. They are treating bitcoin as a store of wealth and at the same time, continuously trading it to make profits. In this case, miners will still be busy and the market is still profitable. What we can expect is a huge market price as bitcoin's volume is being mined.

OP has a valid hypothetical question but my answer is a straightforward No! Bitcoin will not become inactive especially when all of it has been mined and thus will result to a more wider distribution of it.

I think there are two possible scenarios concerning mining that will come into play when all Bitcoin has been mined:

1. Bitcoin's price has achieved its ATH by then that mining it (even if the rewards comes from transaction fees) is still attractive or could be more profitable than the current mining situation right now.

2. Bitcoin's miners have ceased to do mining but will eventually be replaced by stakeholders, enthusiasts and supporters who want to "keep the network alive" and eventually protect the value of their Bitcoin holdings. So, mining will still continue no matter what. Imho.

I'm very much confused here. Who came out with the idea that in the year 2130, all Bitcoin will be mined? I have read through the whitepaper of Bitcoin from head to toe for several times but didn't come across anything like 2130 all bitcoin will be mined. The blockchain network of Bitcoin is designed in such a way that, having a bitcoin wallet on your computer automatically sync you to the network. This makes a passive use of your CPU power without you noticing anything. This implies that even if all Bitcoins are mined, the blockchain network of bitcoin will still be intact so far as people still have bitcoin wallets and still owns bitcoins in their wallet.

The network will continue to operate well. This is a sense of the Bitcoin blockchain, it will not die after the end of the mining

When you say "a lot of computers would pull out of the Bitcoin Network", I assume you mean that there will be very little hash power?  And you also mean that more than half of the hash power that is present will potentially be controlled by a single entity?

If that is true...  Then people will NOT use Bitcoin as a store of wealth. It is the hashpower that makes the blockchain indelible.  If the blockchain is not indelible, then Bitcoin is not a good store of wealth.

But, if people are not going to use Bitcoin as a store of wealth, then you no longer need to be concerned about there being very few transactions. You yourself said:
"if most people are using Bitcoin just as a store of wealth, then there are very few transactions"

So, if most people are NOT using Bitcoin just as a store of wealth, then there are NOT very few transactions.

Since there are lots of transactions, there are lots of fees available for miners.  This means that there are lots of miners providing lots of hash power, which results in a very secure and indelible blockchain (they all want to earn from those transaction fees).

Since the blockchain has lots of hash power and is very secure and indelible, that means that it can be used as a store of wealth.

Interesting how that feedback loop works, isn't it?

Seems like the feedback might cause a natural balance where there are enough transactions to pay for the mining and any excess can sit in storage if the owners of the funds prefer.

If we are talking about the transaction volume happening now then it might not be appealing for the miners to run their hardware without any kind of block reward. But if you consider the mass adoption and favorable laws coming into our world going forward to that year then we might actually see an exponential growth of demand for Bitcoin's price as well as overall use for it. It might even be more ideal for miners to run their operations then with the big amount of transactions happening once that digital age rises. And that's me just talking realistically with the things I have been seeing now.

There is always going to be a lot of people holding BTC as an investment/unit of storage, I would even argue that this is more commonplace then using it nowadays.

BTC won't have all been mined out during 2130, I reckon you'll need to give it another 10 years after that, and we'll still need to assume that this technology is still used by other people, which seems unlikely...

During that point, likely transaction fees would go up and miners would earn their money that way.

This is again the incomprehension of working with deflationary currency, it is the disease the Chicago school of economy has installed in most people brain's, so they can fear it and let "their model" "work.

Well no.

Deflationary money is money that doesn't lose value over time, therefore you don't need "a bank paying you interest". What you keep yourself, increases its purchasing power overtime, so you get an automatic incentive to NOT spend what you don't need (contrary to consumerism).

Once you DO decide to invest or spend, the money comes from a solid source. In the current dominant mentality, they'd rather you get in debt to buy as many things as you can, and then slave yourself paying it all back many times higher than if you had waited and saved to buy the thing.

One thing with deflation is you don't need banks as much, and banks should not be operating under fractional reserve, ie, fictional money that doesn't exist anywhere but is counted as it it where (90% of fiat money doesn't exist. maybe more, its a legalized ponzi scheme).

In the end, without the banks or the debt, you save your own money earned working, and trust that i will hold its purchasing value no matter what. And if you decide to spend it, you spend it and that's it. Austrian economists don't need fractional reserve, and therefore no central banks, and of course no fiat currency. They originally advocated for gold, but i think Bitcoin fits even better.

Fiat currency you want to get rid of it ASAP, as its constantly losing value. Bitcoin you keep as much as you can. and only use what you must.

Not really, someone will always counter the 51% attack. If someone has a possibility of doing a 51% attack, the rest of the network will probably react to this. Not to mention that the pools who have this kind of power would be considered "trustable" at some point.

Nowadays most use Bitcoin as an investment, not only as a store of value. But after some more halvings and after Bitcoin is mature and widely adopted, the value may become rather stable and using it as investment may not bring such high reward.
And Bitcoin primary meaning is to be used as a coin. The store of value is a "secondary effect" of all good/successful coins (back in the days when inflation was big I kept my savings in USD/EUR!).
That's why the development goes in the direction to make the use of Bitcoin-as-a-coin go faster and better.

So I expect Bitcoin get used in 2130 as a coin much more than today.
I don't know how much of the transactions will be off-chain and how much on-chain, but we clearly have to keep miners happy even then (the problems will start much earlier than 2130 actually).


As said by @Deathwing, the network will continue to work even then, just at a lower difficulty, if the miners leave. But if the difficulty drops too much, at some point the network could become vulnerable to 51% attack. So ... we have to find long term solutions to keep the miners happy.

"which means there is very little reward for mining and so a lot of computers would pull out of the Bitcoin network."

So? The blockchain will adjust itself automatically. If we look at a fictional scenario where every, and I mean every single ASIC miner has left. The difficulty is going to drop well enough so that maybe you might be able to mine Bitcoins then. No matter how many miners leave, network will adjust itself to sustain the transactions.

In the year 2130 all of the Bitcoins will have been mined and the only reward at this point is transaction fees,if most people are using Bitcoin just as a store of wealth, then there are very few transactions, which means there is very little reward for mining and so a lot of computers would pull out of the Bitcoin network. Would this be a problem? If large Bitcoin transactions occured sparingly in 2130 and beyond, would the Bitcoin concept still work?