Topic: Is it wrong to try your luck with Solo (Read 448 times)

The 2 best that come to mind are:
kano.is Registration required, many nodes around the planet, lowest fee
solo.ckpool.org only need a wallet address for payout, only 1 node so ping times could be an issue

Bitcoin Mining Sites available now?

Money today is worth more than money later. Imagine a mining pool that takes a 5% fee (which is rather high, but just an example). If you'll eventually get a full block mining solo, or you'll get 95% of that payout over the same period of time from a mining pool, you should still choose the mining pool. If you get 10% of your funds in the first year but can then invest it, you can beat the fees over the time period it'd take to find a block solo.

I would say if you can mine a 110 th miner at zero cost it makes $8.80 a day for sure on a pool like viabtc.

8.80 x 365 = $3212 a year for sure.


solo is all or nothing

so after a year it most likely will not hit a block

 so 3212 or 0 is the most likely out come if he mines all viabtc or all solo.


If you let me mine 1 s19 pro and no power cost I would mine it for 300 days on viabtc and 65 days on solo

getting a certain 300 x 8.80 = 2640. and many shots at a block  during those 65 days of solo mining.

As long as you are not directly paying for the electricity, of course it's worth it. The only real question is will the 'free electricity' continue after whoever IS paying for it sees how much power you are using 24x7x365?

Please elaborate what stats are you talking about? I am intrigued, I have been thinking about solo for a long time, would love to learn more about this topic.

and this is why I point 2.5ph to a ppns pool and only 19th to a solo styled pool

Agreed, I think he meant it this way, but unfortunately, even with that meaning it's pretty much false, your chances of hitting a block mining solo are exactly the same as your chances of mining the equivalent of a whole block while mining to a pool.


With everything being equal, if your miner with 100% luck is supposed to hit a block in 10 years, if you mine to a pool for 10 years and combine your payouts, you will end up with a whole block reward.

I am seeing more and more "free electricity" to mean 'my landlord charges me a fixed amount if I use it or not, so screw them I am going to use all of it'
Just ran into that with a customer that it happened to in the start of the year. They went from metered ($75 to $90 a month) to a fixed amount ($178.00 a month) so now PCs don't get shut off at night, who cares if you leave lights on when you go home and a pair of L3+ are now humming away in a unused space. Because....screw them.

Back to this.
If you don't need the money coming in and want to play the lottery then going solo is fine. Could be a big score one day. Or you could be felling like the people who bet on Philadelphia to win the Super Bowl last weekend.

-Dave

You misunderstand his statement. Here is another way of writing what he said:

If I mine on a shared pool my odds of winning a solo block all to myself are zero.

If I mine on a solo pool my odds of winning a solo block are unlikely  but far far better than zero.


and another way would be.

you can't win a solo block on a shared pool. since you do must share with the other miners.

in a way he was being a bit sarcastic with his statement.


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Shared pool by definition means shared odds of winning a solo block are impossible.

Mining solo means you take it all no sharing. It is unlikely to win a block but you can win one or more every day you point gear to a solo setup.




off topic:

 I mine at a small pool with a password to mine only.

https://pool.laurentiapool.org/#/work

146UJM5kgzLVUV23CXCf33KQKHckoX1gx3  will get 2.19 coins if we hit a block


now the pool has 222th which means $15.55 in earnings a day if it was not solo. a block is $132,000. so the shot of us hitting a block is 8500 to 1

but even at those odds it is not a solo block it would be shared with 4 miners.  Its close to solo for 3 of the miners the rewards are very nice, but it is not solo and at the moment it can not be solo for the next block since 4 miners have shares and will get some of the coins.

That doesn't sound right, judging from how many users tell you that the chance is only around 2% within a year. Not to mention the difficulty is going to fluctuate, and I bet it will increase and just lower your chance even further. Doesn't really matter whether you have free electricity or not if you will never get it in the first place. Can you show us the math?

Based on my experience, I only saw one post from a lottery miner in this forum, while the rest are just talking about probability, etc. Most of the time they are just doing it for fun, so if profit is your goal, mining with a pool is arguably more profitable & efficient. CMIIW.

IMHO, solo mining is absolutely worth it. You will learn so much about the mining software, hardware and become a better bitcoiner for it. It’s exciting to watch your best share over time and see how close you are to hitting the target difficulty. And if you are into stats, your chance of winning a block reward solo mining is infinitely higher than with a pool 

I mean solo mining with asic, stable internet connection, without node.

Or only 0.5% solo on kano.is

I don't think there's a difference between them are you talking about solo mining with your node? Then it's not worth it if you only have one unit and unstable internet because the block you found might become an orphan.
Mining solo on both mining pools only takes 2% of the block reward that you mine plus transaction fees.

What do you mean with 9 days and 1 day.
What is the diferent betwen solo pools viabtc vs. ckpool vs. solomining ?

If he has 1 unit and zero  power cost to mine the correct choice is

 90% to  mine safe 10% to mine solo

 or 80% to mine safe 20% to mine solo

not 100% to mine  solo.

Not much debate here pretty much cut and dried.

Hell I mine high risk at this pool

https://pool.laurentiapool.org/#/work

we should hit a block in more than 10 years time

I am miner 146U...1gx3

I point 20th and rent 500th every once in a while.


but I point 1.8ph to a safe pool and take 1800 x 0.00000314 = 0.005652 btc a day or  2 coins a year.

When the halving will happen only one thing is for sure, the reward will drop from 6.25 to 3.125.

Nobody knows what the difficulty will be and how it will react, but normally you would expect the difficulty to actually drop since there is less reward in mining, the revue drops also by half so some miners won't be that happy to mine anymore if instead of 10$ revenue with 6$ costs, you have 5$ revenue with $6 costs. It will depend a lot on what the prices are at that time and if even halving the profit margins would be enough to keep miners running.
But! for sure it won't mean the difficulty will double overnight!

As for the other free electricity issue, I knew I saw OP on another topic, so this is the "free" electricity some of you were curious about

Er?
Regarding the highlighted part, try moving the decimal point many many times to the left....  for any single piece of hardware regardless of its speed we're looking at ballpark of 0.00000000000000000001% chance (not a real calculation but you get the point...)

It won't matter anymore when the next Bitcoin halving is here, that 6BTC per block will be reduced and a 110TH will have only 1% chance of solving a block compare to when it was 2%, the difficulty will rise more and the block will bring only 3BTC. There are many people doing solo and they don't have any luck while someone with less TH will solve a block in few months, It's a game of lucky.

No.

9 days at viabtc.com pps+
1 day at solo.ckpool.org


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After 100 days with free power

you have 110 x .0767 = 843.70 usd

and maybe you hit a solo block.
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__________________________________________
all solo after 100 days maybe you hit a solo block
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the math says 110th will take more then 15000 days to hit a solo block.

block is 6.25 x 24000 = 150,000 usd

150,000/ 8.4370 = 17778 days


so in 100 day time frame.  you have a 1 in 177 shot at a block


but the other way. 90-10

you have a 1777.8 shot at a block

and 100 percent  shot at 837.



I assume no gear breaks
and earnings stay at 7.67 cents a th

to me

I want the certain 837.


I have 2.5 ph pointed at viabtc.

I have 20-200th pointed at this pool

https://pool.laurentiapool.org/#/miners


if anyone hits my guy gets 2.14 btc

my guy is 146U...1gx3




the pool does 200 to 400th so it may take 8500 days to hit a block.

which is why I do not point a ton at it.

If you walk into a coffee shop and they don't charge you for the cup of coffee you drink then it's free as far as you are concerned, just because someone else pays for it doesn't change the fact, the same thing is true if you are forced by the law to walk into that coffee shop and pay 1$ per entry whether or not you drink the coffee or not.

In many places around the world,  essentials like electricity are subsidized by the government, yes the government is using your money to subsidize the electricity, but you can't ask them to give you that money in cash or give you apples instead.

Even in some "modernized" countries where power is not subsidized, some people pay for fixed contracts, say the minimum is 1000kWh and your house uses only half of that, you can't just buy 500kWh, so you are forced to get 1000kWh, the otherwise wasted 500kWh falls safely under the term "free".

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OP, no hashrate is ever enough for solo mining, just like no amount of money is enough to buy you enough lottery tickets to guarantee a win ( unless you buy all the tickets which don't make you win anything anyway).

With 110Th and assuming both price and difficulty will not change, you can easily earn $250 a month mining to a PPS/PPLNS pool, in 10-12 months you will ROI the mining gear and enjoy a stable almost guaranteed income of $250, makes a lot more sense than solo mining, if you insist on trying your luck, go ahead, you might as well just hit a block, but you need to be aware of the fact that it's extremely unlikely for that to happen, you need to be freaking lucky to hit a block with that hashrate.

It may be that he is involved in wind farms and / or has relationships with such persons or institutions. This is not uncommon and some even know one personally and could put a device there that is likely to operate up to several kilowatts. It does not have to be criminal, as the OP is accused here to heap.

@OP: If you can really operate a 110 TH miner for free in a legal way and the investment costs of a miner based on your description with the "other well-functioning and money-earning business concept" does not matter --> then definitely GO FOR IT!

If you have a business and the given amount is good, it is of course good and in your favor, dude. Then the ASIC miner is fine and okay, according to what I see in the various branches of the social media platform.

But there's just one thing I can't believe, and that's "Free electricity" How did that happen? that doesn't seem possible. Unless you are an electrical Engr. what is said may be true but if not. I don't know. Anyway, 110TH, that's high in my opinion. and the profit would be nice too, so I think ROI for this will not for long I think in my opinion.

You'll still pay for the miner, and chances are you'll never earn it back if you go solo.

Hypothetical thoughts.
If OP has free electricity (we will neglect the fact that someone pays anyway), then you can take a chance with a 2% chance. With luck, it will bring a good bonus.

If you don’t want trouble from the electricity supplier (who will sooner or later discover a 3000W leak), then why not connect your mining power to a common pool. This will bring even a smaller, but guaranteed income and without unnecessary problems.


If you are ready to try-your-luck journey, then what are you waiting for? Just do it.

Alas the 2% comment is wrong.

At the moment, with the current difficulty, a 110TH/s miner has 1 in 16987.8 chance of finding a block in a day.
http://tradebtc.net/bitcalc.php

However you can't convert that to "days to find a block" since the difficulty change over any time frame more than until the next difficulty change (usually less than 2 weeks) is not constant.

A simple factual calculation:
1-Jan-2022 network difficulty was 24.2T
1-Jan-2023 network difficulty was 35.4T

That's a 45.7% increase so any estimate of just 12 months was far from correct.
(and no one can estimate what the difficulty will be in 12 months)

Well, in fact, taking into account the growth of the hashrate of the bitcoin network, which has already reached 314.6 EH/s, your Asic has 1/2860000 of the total hashrate of the bitcoin network, therefore your miner has a chance the miner has a 0.000035% chance of finding a block that he will statistically catch one block out of every 2860000 blocks or 19,861 days, which is 54.4 years, this is without taking into account your luck, of course.

Imho the math will always tell you it's not worth it. It's up to you, if you have another hash rate on pools and want to gamble some TH. Because it's gambling. Some, few, get lucky. The rest.. are not in the news.

At current hash rate, you'll have a 2% chance of solving a block in a year. Up to you to decide if that's worth it.

I don't really believe in "free electricity": someone pays for it. And if they notice a continuous 3000W going to your place, they may not like it.

Is 110TH enough to gamble with Bitcoin solo mining? If you can solve a Bitcoin block in 4-7 years do you think it's worth the hassle? What can 110TB do to make this possible? I have free electricity I just want to embark on this try-your-luck journey, do you think it's worth it? I am not in haste and I am ready to just plug the ASIC miner and move on, I have other business that fetches me good money so..