Topic: Is mass adoption or/and regulation more likely to reduce volatility? (Read 520 times)

Your comment or discussion is a little off topic from the OP, but regardless, I will still have to correct you on something.

There is a higher possibility that the higher the adoption of Bitcoin, the more profitable the price will be. That's what the law of demand says. But the higher the number of people who are holding and owning Bitcoin, the more likely it is that a mass dump will also happen. I seriously disagreed with that. This is because when five people share a particular good within themselves and three of these five people want to sell off their goods because they actually need the money for something else, the price of the goods they want to sell will reduce but not the value. This is because the number of people selling might be greater than the number of available buyers.

But when we have higher numbers of holders, we will not have to worry much about price dumps. Bitcoin is not an altcoin where the liquidity can be pulled by a few individual holders; the price will always drop and go up; that's the nature of Bitcoin. We will always have bullish and bearish markets and price corrections.

There is  difference between unique addresses and the number of individuals to have adopted bitcoin. Whole one can be determined and that is the vase of unique addresses the number of individuals to have taken up bitcoin investments, either having it stored somewhere or trading can't be accurately determined. Perhaps the once on centralised exchanges could be determined as accounts are verified, even as simple as cell phone number verification, there still presents some challenges as, most individuals have got several cell phone numbers and the closest to proper documentation is running kyc which is avoided in the crypto space.
Now, unique addresses can't be tied to a each user as well. As crypto investors, your allowed the luxury or owning more than one address and even switching in between addresses.

When we talk about regulation and volatility, the main issue with volatility as we have it is in the demand of the currency. Will the regulation be able to check demand? If no, then its okay to understand that it solves no problem.

If more people start using bitcoin and governments begin to control it, this could help reduce its price volatility. When more people own bitcoins, the market becomes more stable. Also, the involvement of large financial companies can lead to sustainability. If governments impose rules and restrictions on bitcoin, this could create more clarity and protection for people, which could reduce anxiety and price fluctuations. However, it is important to remember that bitcoin will still have some degree of volatility and investing in it still carries risks.

Based on what I understand from Satoshi's previous statements about why he did not wish to instantly promote the use of Bitcoin to everyone, I believe that someone will keep a large amount of Bitcoin due to hype. If we go back in time, the authorities blocked Wikileaks from transacting money through their website, thus utilizing Bitcoin is the best way to continue some exchange of goods, which Satoshi does not agree with because he wants to strengthen the Bitcoin. So, if Satoshi agrees with RHorning, it is possible that the Bitcoin price is quite volatile today since many individuals own a lot of Bitcoin and can dump it.

As per my analysis based on market information and understanding, which is subject to inaccuracies, the root cause of volatility is the relatively small size of crypto market which can be easily manipulated by big players, while in contrast , the commodities and stock markets as their market capitalization is much bigger than crypto space. There is no doubt that when general public involves through massive adoption, it can potentially increase the demand, and subsequently stabilize market in the long run.

Adoption and growth rates for btc is different thing but prices are controlled by the market factors and volatility depends on them.But with increased adoption and regulations the demand will go up and coming halving the supply will be reduced which can push prices high so you see volatility factor remains there which can't be eliminated with these regulations.

Indeed, increased adoption and effective government regulation of Bitcoin are driving increased usage of Bitcoin, is leading to greater liquidity. This, in turn, has the potential to result in significant increase in market capitalization of Bitcoin and ultimately contribute to market stability. These major developments address the major issue of crypto market which is volatility. As Bitcoin becomes more regulated, widely accepted, and its market becomes resilient, it will certainly reduce its unpredictability and fluctuations.

Bitcoin is the number 1 top trusted crypocurrency. And of course it is considered the pioneer in the field because it is the... pioneer in the field.

If the government in any country had the ability and resources to regulate Bitcoin, they would have done so already. They cannot regulate Bitcoin. They can regulate centralized entities like cryptocurrency exchanges or cryptocurrency casinos. Anyone in the world can mine Bitcoin, anyone in the world can own and transact with Bitcoin. All they need is an internet connection.

The worldwide adoption is a question of when not if. The volatility will continue to exist. But that is not a bad thing, BTC may always have changes in price, due to pure speculation. The value, however, stays the same.  

In a scenario wheee everyone has a bitcoin, and they all use said bitcoins they own for transactions, effectively circulating the supply and fostering a currency-type economy, there is a huge possibility that bitcoin’s price will stabilize, but it must be said that this will also dump the value of bitcoin by a huge margin. There’s also the discussion of regulation which will definitely play its part when the topic of global adoption is raised. Still, it’s gonna take a long time for this to even warrant discussion, as it stands today bitcoin is valuable not for its currency nature, but for the fact that it is used by many to gain profits, so not only is bitcoin’s volatility rate really essential in rhe growth of the cryptocurrency king, but also its massive kryptonite.

That's much pretty is, there will really be no one from the forum that might be alive by that time and who knows if the forum will still be in existence by that time or even Bitcoin but I hope so. The supply isn't increasing anymore, there's a fixed one.

But the volatility, we'll never know if it's gonna be fixed when the whole supply is already mined by that means, we'll never see it happen because we're no longer here anymore by that time.

There are whales that will keep as much as they can but they will influence the market. And these whales could also be the financial companies that we're seeing jumping the bandwagon of Bitcoin and having their interest publicized so that everyone knows that they're already in.

There's gonna be always the demand for Bitcoin and we're only in one path of it. It's gonna be harder to obtain one every single year that will pass and every single halving comes.

I suppose it's the matter of time: if adoption process is rapid, then it can reduce volatility and bring instability in total, while slow and rational adoption process most probably won't affect volatility.

Regulation.

Regulation is not directly going to happen with Bitcoin, regulation can only work with where people sell and buy their Bitcoin, that's crypto exchanges and that's even centralized exchanges, regulation can bring in some trusts but it won't reduce volatility, I am glad you don't ask for erasing volatility like a member on this forum that wished that Bitcoin goes stable, some people are too blind to see and they will never learn.

Mass Adoption

Mass adoption is not something that can be rushed, since Bitcoin is decentralized, it's greatest enemy is the government and that's why the adoption is slower, but Bitcoin was created for strong community in mind, and to keep the community in good hands, more trust must be in place, mostly among the adopters, Bitcoin was not created for the government or any kind of law to support, the strength of Bitcoin comes within it's holders and community.

Assuming loads of people start adopting Bitcoin today, the value will grow in huge numbers and those who bought at, let's say 20,000$ can start selling, meaning Bitcoin is leaving some people's hands and going into another hands, and the new hands will sell at a certain amount too, maybe 200k per Bitcoin.

Bitcoin will always go around, from hand to hand because of it's price, only very few people will want to hold and those holders are already millionaires who don't care about what will happen in future, but for the who came from struggling background, they need to survive, they need to solve their families problem and help their people,  those people are much more in numbers compare to those who are already millionaires.

Volatility with Bitcoin will always be here, and the next dip of Bitcoin can be 50,000 and we will be hoping for 300k in the next bull market, things will always be like this for Bitcoin.

Wow, looks like an interesting discussion, let me respond first. The concept of regulation in the cryptocurrency market is a topic of ongoing debate at the moment. While some argue in favor of regulation as a means of promoting stability, protecting investors, and promoting mainstream adoption, others express concern about potential drawbacks such as invasion of privacy and individual freedoms.

My view is that mass adoption and regulation items have the potential to contribute to reducing volatility, it is important to review and all the factors that affect market prices, including sentiment, global events and technological advances, but it is not possible to eliminate all items as OP Yuriy1991 stated and it can the reasons and arguments because maybe he has read the current developments.

Concerns about potential invasion of privacy and freedom should also not be ignored in my opinion, because what you said above is also true and makes sense. however, if the Regulations are applied carefully, it can help build a more transparent and trustworthy environment for investors and ensure that market participants adhere to certain standards, thereby reducing the risk of fraud and other activity. I think regulation can promote market integrity, improve investor protection, and encourage institutional engagement, thereby increasing trust and attracting more participants.

If more people use Bitcoin and the government successfully regulates it to some extent, Bitcoin’s volatility may be reduced. Increased adoption and regulatory actions can help stabilize the market by  increasing investors’ trust. However, it is crucial to note that the cryptocurrency market is influenced by a variety of factors, including global economic conditions and investor attitudes, which can still contribute to price changes. Although regulation and widespread adoption may have a stabilizing effect, the volatility of Bitcoin cannot be completely eliminated.

Are you advocating regulation? I don't see any benefit that regulation will bring to the market, especially since it would seriously violate our privacy and freedoms. Moreover, reducing market volatility is never good for us, we invest for profit, and to get profit requires strong volatility. If these 2 things reduce the volatility of bitcoin, I really don't expect it.

Mass adoption and regulation can reduce volatility in the crypto currency market. Mass adoption could lead stability in the market by increasing the overall demand for the crypto currencies. The more people will use Bitcoin on a daily basis the market will become less dependent on speculative trading that could help reduce volatility. Regulation could also help reduce volatility by providing a more stable legal framework for crypto currencies. It could increase investors confidence and reduce the risk of fraud and manipulation.

Bitcoin, the granddaddy of cryptocurrencies, is certainly a force to reckon with, no doubt about it. With a user base larger than the population of some countries, it’s made a space for itself in the digital world. And now we're imagining a future where Bitcoin's user base is as populous as a continent, and Uncle Sam's got his regulatory hat on. Will Bitcoin finally mellow out? Here's my hot take.

Increased adoption might bring more stability. More people, more transactions, a more balanced market, right? But let's not forget, Bitcoin's like a wild stallion – it thrives in the wild, free and unregulated. Throw in government regulations, and we might be messing with the fundamental ethos of decentralization. However, if Bitcoin were to become less volatile, it could potentially emerge as a new form of 'digital gold' – a beacon of stability amidst the chaos. But remember, this is the crypto-verse, expect the unexpected!

People will always see this from two view points. One will see Bitcoin as a method for payments or a digital currency to use freely. On the other hand, the rest of the people will see it as an asset to invest in and make profits from it. Both are good in a sense that they are getting what they want, and it's all coming from Bitcoin.
There's a theory that once all the Bitcoins are mined, it will become somewhat stable. I don't know how much of it's going to become a reality, but only time will tell. As for my point of view, as long as people see Bitcoin as an asset and a medium for making profits, then these kinds of volatility will still remain in the future too. If it becomes stable, many people will lose interest in it. These are just predictions and not 100% accurate. So forget about the future and just enjoy while you can.

Bitcoin operates within its own ideological movement and is subject to the influence of regulators and governments. While complete regulation may be challenging, governments can align themselves with Bitcoin to some extent.

Regarding volatility, it is inherent to Bitcoin's nature and development. As a digital asset, Bitcoin aims to have value equivalent to traditional currencies like the dollar. This pursuit of value parity means that Bitcoin will likely continue to experience fluctuations regardless of its level of adoption. Its status as a "digital gold" contributes to its volatility as well.

Mass adoption and regulation both have the potential to contribute to reducing volatility in the financial markets. Mass adoption refers to a widespread acceptance and use of a particular asset or technology, such as cryptocurrencies or blockchain. As more people and institutions adopt and integrate these innovations into their daily lives, the market becomes more diversified and resilient. This broader participation can help stabilize prices and reduce the impact of large-scale trading activities. On the other hand, regulation plays a crucial role in establishing clear guidelines and oversight mechanisms for financial markets. Well-designed regulations can promote transparency, discourage manipulative practices, and enforce accountability among market participants. By instilling confidence and trust in the market, regulatory frameworks can mitigate risks and dampen speculative behavior, thereby contributing to a decrease in volatility. Ultimately, a combination of mass adoption and effective regulation is likely to have the greatest impact on reducing volatility and creating a more stable and sustainable financial environment.

Great question from you. Mass adoption and regulation can contribute to reducing volatility and is true as you say. Yes. the combination of mass adoption and regulation can create a more mature and stable cryptocurrency ecosystem that provides more benefits to investors and the industry as a whole, but it is not possible to eliminate all items that affect market prices such as market sentiment, global events and technological advances today.

That's what I fear, when regulations are enacted, the volatility of bitcoin will decrease significantly. Bitcoin's volatility is not purely based on supply and demand but on manipulation by market makers. Therefore, once regulated, market makers will not dare to freely do what they like, instead, they must also follow the government's rules of the game if they do not want to go to jail. That's why I don't like having regulation in this market.

And what if one day bitcoin adoption will go so far that no one will be interested in USD payments and prices will be in bitcoins? How will you know that you've made 400$ of 200$? You try to extrapolate what we have at the moment, but if bitcoin develops and gets more adoption, the things will change. One day its purchasing power will not grow as fast and so volatility will be not so big. It won't be tomorrow or this year or I'd even say this decade, but if we believe in bitcoin it will be!

We are talking about reducing volatility, not bitcoin will be completely stable.  but mass adoption or regulation, I don't think it will affect the volatility of bitcoin.  bitcoin will only become more stable as it has a larger and larger market cap. in recent years when the capitalization of bitcoin has increased significantly, the return of bitcoin is not as large as in previous years, so I think bitcoin will be less volatile and more stable at some point.

Bitcoin gained popularity rapidly primarily because of its inherent volatility. However, this very volatility prevents it from achieving stability, regardless of whether it experiences widespread adoption or stringent regulations. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin also presents challenges for regulatory measures, making it difficult to effectively regulate. On the other hand, Bitcoin readily adapts to changing circumstances, which means that increased adoption tends to result in more volatility rather than stability, in my opinion. I have observed that decreased volatility is usually attributed to lower levels of adoption.

I think mass adoption will more likely have a bigger impact in terms of reducing the volatility of the Bitcoin market.  The reason behind is that the more people get involved and invested in the Bitcoin market, the more liquid the market becomes and the more resistant the market is to price swing since there are more funds injected into the market that created more resistance to flash crashes.

I guess you mean volume, not volatility.

Regulation usually means restriction. There's going to be licenses, fees, government intervention into trading and private business that will discourage people from choosing cryptocurrencies which will result in less people using them. Volatility will still be big because what's stopping someone who already has bitcoin to dump it when regulations keep piling up?


This is one of the ways, but not the only one.
Another way to reduce volatility is to distribute bitcoin among many more users. If you have 20 million bitcoin owned by 1 million people, the volatility is going to be much higher than in a case of the same number being owned by 3 million people.

Governments would need to restrict high leverage trading and fight wash trading and other methods of price manipulation, and this needs to be a global initiative, because if only a few countries do it, then traders would just create volatility through offshore platforms. I think such regulations are not realistic, governments don't care that much about Bitcoin, and actually, what is for them to gain in making Bitcoin less volatile?

Adoption somewhat reduces volatility, but only to a certain point. If people buy Bitcoin and hodl, they are not really reducing volatility.

Even 200 million is nothing compared to the population of the world which is probably around 8 billion by the time we reach the 200 million active Bitcoin users, the volatility will remain same and I expect it to be lot higher cause the numbers in Fiat will be the difference when daily volatility rate reaches upto 10% on average.

Because Bitcoin has a limited supply, the only way to lessen volatility is for the market cap to rise. Because there is no effect on the market if there is a large marketcap when someone is going to sell their altcoins/Bitcoins. I believe that mass adoption and regulation will contribute significantly to the expansion of marketcap since it can bring more investors to the market.

Who wants here that Bitcoin will reduce it's volatility? Not me definitely.
I don't want the volatility of Bitcoin to be reduced because that's where the money is. Volatility makes an average investor a millionaire. Volatility makes an investor who has a billion dollar a millionaire (you know what I mean ).

Anyway, more people will definitely reduce the volatility of Bitcoin, but will regulation have a big impact on reducing the volatility of it? I don't think so, and aside from that, who wants Bitcoin to be regulated anyways? Overall, I don't think that there will be a time where Bitcoin will become volatile because many people see Bitcoin as an asset, and one nature of an asset in general is it's volatile, but as we see more and more people using it, we might see the volatility of it reducing little by little. So little that we aren't feeling it at all.

When Satoshi created BTC, he didn't add any "feature" such as volatility, even with all the upgrades and developments in the network, there's no additional "feature" such as volatility. BTC is a currency and factors such as its fixed supply and the demand for it makes it volatile, not that volatility is part of the algorithm or protocol .
If there is more adoption and more strong hands than weak hands, volatility will reduce. There are so many bitcoiners that sell with any small price movement or fud, or those that only buy because of fomo, these people cause quick price movements. But i believe with greater adoption, and more people actually spending and holding BTC without panic, volatility will reduce.

The more adoption happens loud hell things will become. Just because more people mean more trades what less dramatic trades as it's impossible to spike the price in either direction as there will be more people either side of the spike buffering it.

However, regulations are entirely different aspect. As regulations are proposed there will be more volatility as people try to figure out what's going on and try to make money bye bedding one way or the other about how the regulations will check the price. As regulations take effect, once again people will be betting as to what happens and will put a lot more pressure on the coin maybe either direction increase in volatility. And then the third stage would be after the regulations have been in effect for a while and people know what happens, they will help reduce volatility as it shows that BTC can be come a normal thing in commerce.

As always, not investment advice, just my opinion.

-Dave

There is almost no hope of being stable as long as supply is limited and not backed to something of stable value. Even all stable assets that people believe in actually have volatility even though it is relatively small.

Btw, what does adoption mean from your perspective?
If that includes trading bitcoins on centralized exchanges, then obviously that is a forerunner of volatility and traders actually want that.

Volatility is what happens in the market, it is not a "feature of bitcoin"!

More adoption will reduce the volatility, as we have seen so far. You can't compare the volatility we have today with what we used to have in 2010 for example, it has been reduced. Extrapolating that, things should be more stable as the adoption grows.
But as for the regulation, it is not going to affect volatility. It is done by the government to have more control and be able to monitor people's finances. Not to mention that the market is already regulated with all the KYC that the exchanges enforce.

Unique addresses do not mean each person owns one single address. There is no rigid way to determine bitcoin owners or users solely based on filled addresses. One person can own many addresses, they also can fill them as they wish. If the stat researcher uses that kind of methodology, that is a sure way to tell it is an unaccountable statistic.
We can't know for sure how many people exactly own and uses a Bitcoin due to its pseudonymity nature. It is hard to tell.

Anyway, back to the main idea of the topic, if we take a look at bitcoin market capitalization, it is extremely minuscule compared to other assets or commodity, so it is expected in case many more people use its utility and specifically owns it, the volatility changes will be reduced.

Bitcoins volatility and the potential to make profit from it is what has attracted many people to bitcoins, no doubts! but you also need to remember that the primary purpose for which bitcoin was created was to be used as currency not really investment. At some point along the line as bitcoin progresses the volatility is bound to reduce, what will should really be asking is, at that time, will bitcoin still be able to attract people? and will those that are owning bitcoins because of it's volatility, will they choose to keep their bitcoins, will they decide to sell it all, or even trade them for some more volatile Altcoin?

These are many questions to consider about reduced volatility.

the government might be able to make a regulation that will bind the use of Bitcoin. but not with Bitcoin price volatility that they can control.
everything depends on the market. when more and more adoption and with a limited supply will make Bitcoin still not be controlled by anyone.
Bitcoin is not going to be a stable asset, even in my opinion if Bitcoin will reach the maximum available supply it will be traded on the market. its value will also be uncontrollable.

Reduction in volatility? I am not so sure because people will always need to take profit and only very few will decide to keep their Bitcoin and never sell, the poverty rate in the world is extremely higher and assuming all people in the world now buy Bitcoin they will always need to sell and also bear market can't be erased of crypto market because higher price always follow by correction.

The higher the adoption of Bitcoin the more value it will has but also there will be massive dump too because too many numbers of people need money, so when they are able to turn 200$ into 400$ through Bitcoin they will need to take profits.

I don't think anyone in this forum would be alive by then; rather, everyone on this forum would obviously be new people then, and I think there would still be more people into Bitcoin by then compared to what we have now. Looking at what is happening now, volatility is not just pulled by halving and increasing supply, so by then, volatility will not still be dependent upon total supply. So, it's unlikely.

You know what I think, @OP and @livingfree, If the total number of Bitcoins holders reduces, like to the extent where Bitcoin is allowed to only be in the hands of a few whales, exchanges, and rich people, then these people can fully manipulate the price of the Bitcoin, but I don't see anyone giving up on accumulating Bitcoin. If people are selling off each day, that's how more people are also buying up. (I may also be wrong in my thoughts.) So, the government can fucking put any rule and try what they can, but Bitcoin can never be in their hands to fully control, nor can they control volatility.

They cannot control the bitcoin network, but with regulations that will be imposed on centralized exchanges, and centralized exchanges are the places that hold the most bitcoins. Furthermore, all information about the market as well as the bitcoin price is displayed on centralized platforms, so I think they will still have some control over the volatility of bitcoin. Bitcoin is decentralized but used by everyone, and most of the participants in this market mainly depend on centralized platforms. The government doesn't control bitcoin, but they can control bitcoin users.

The government can regulate connections to bitcoin in real world: when the one changes it to fiat, buys or sells something with it, etc. It can try to impact on miners which are under its jurisdiction. So it is not so easy to say that gov doesn't have any control over bitcoin, it only hasn't direct impact.


Look at the history of bitcoin: its volatility is already downing by time. The bigger its capitalization the lower will probably be its volatility if nothing bad will happen. It doesn't depend on a number of users directly, it depends more on a capitalization.

The government can't regulate Bitcoin, if they can regulate it they would had done it since but because they have tried but can't that is why they're now speaking negatively against Bitcoin to discourage people from investing in it. Bitcoin is a decentralized currency and when something is decentralized it can't be regulated. Bitcoin has no center body that can be regulated to stop the volatility of the price.

If the centralized wallets and exchange finally gets regulated, it still wouldn't stop Bitcoin volatility because those exchanges and wallets aren't the ones trading Bitcoin on their websites and apps, it's the individuals that are responsible for determining the price of Bitcoin.

It seems that regulation does not reduce volatility because the government cannot control the price of Bitcoin. The government can only make regulations for people who use Bitcoin and exchanges so that the government can find out who is behind Bitcoin or who is using Bitcoin.

And if more people adopt Bitcoin, it will make Bitcoin even more popular and as Bitcoin gets more popular, the government will tighten the regulation more. But the volatility is not decreasing and it is possible that it will increase in volatility as more and more people are trading Bitcoins.

But as for the number of people who own Bitcoin, we will never know for sure. We only know how many wallets contain or do not contain Bitcoins. Owning Bitcoin is related to privacy, which the government doesn't like because they don't know how rich their citizens are.

Bitcoin is not just one of the most trusted cryptocurrencies, it's as a matter of fact the most trusted cryptocurrency and might hold that title forever.

Regulation is not an issue the way people think of it, it will rather help in accountability as many might do anything with their coin outside the radar, and it could be for evil deeds. That said, regulation can only directly affect the inflow and outflow of Bitcoin, and for this, it doesn't have a direct link with trading, investment and liquidity. Still, some might not like the regulation and leave, but I can assure you that more would like the regulation and adopts it even more.

However, these statistics can't be predetermined, yet, one thing that is sure is that Bitcoin would always attract more liquidity as time goes on, and that is good for it's economy. And if liquidity is what you are mistaken for volatility, be sure that volatility is merely the magnitude of the market reaction, and adoption might not have a direct link here but how liquidity is being pumped and dumped.

None of those is powerful enough to control the volatility of the Bitcoin. The volatility of Bitcoin and crypto-market can't be controlled because Bitcoin isn't in the hands of the government and they can't increase or decrease it's volume. The volatility is the part of the crypto-market and controlling it isn't possible for anyone. The regulations and other restrictions pose by authorities on exchanges could be the cause of less adoption of the currency, but they won't be able to control the volatility with the restrictions.

Even if the currency is adopted by many users that won't reduce the volatility and in face that can contribute to the volatility of the Bitcoin. With more people there will be more buy/sell orders executed and that would cause an increase in the volatility. The only possible way to control the volatility is to limit the buy/sell orders, but even that is not possible. If the authorities pose restrictions on the exchanges to limit buy/sell order per day, still they won't be able to control the volatility so much. The Bitcoin isn't dependent on those exchanges and can be traded without those exchanges, and if regulation authorities pose some regulations on the exchanges that won't impact the volatility of the coin.

Adoption is one of the factors that affect the price. With the large number of people adopting Bitcoin theoretically it could make its price increase.
You actually already understand that the government cannot regulate Bitcoin because Bitcoin can only be controlled by its users. The government can only make rules or regulations for people who use Bitcoin or Bitcoin users who live in a country such as setting taxes.

The volatility is much connected to the demand to the supply model, not on the regulation and the adoption. The adoption and the regulation plays role creating increasing demand which will lower the volatility for some time period. Based on the model the market will never go stable, volatility is the attraction.

Just think of the market with less volatility or stable market movement, surely cryptocurrency could've never been this high in its growth. For this reason the users also doesn't prefer bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to be stable in the market.

I hope you will be accurate, it is difficult to determine the number of people who own Bitcoin, all you can get is accurate data for the number of people whose accounts have been verified in CEXs other than that, all we can know is the number of unique addresses which the article talked about and not the number of people.


Which government do you mean, without a global regulation just as happened at the Climate Summit^[1] it is difficult to put in place a regulatory framework for Bitcoin.

[1] https://www.un.org/en/climatechange

On a hypothetical level, it makes sense to me that with more adoption comes less volatility, because if more people are a part of the system, regional changes (like bans or friendly regulations in some countries) are likely to have a smaller effect, and minor panic selling is less likely to affect the whole as well. But it just doesn't seem to be the case over the last 5 years. Adoption is growing, but volatility is pretty much the way it used to be in 2018-2019, or at least I see no improvement. As for regulations, I don't think they have an impact on volatility at all, apart from temporary price changes when major regulations are rumoured to be coming. I believe it's more likely that we'll get used to the current level of volatility (which isn't that bad most of the time) than that we'll see Bitcoin as a way more stable currency in the future.

Sometimes, volatility is caused by lack of regulation because lack of regulation leads to uncertainty. So yeah, it’d help a bit at least. But Bitcoin’s still getting scarcer and it’s still got a halving every 4 years, so quick, big price changes won’t really stop. Adoption will also help just because the more distributed the supply is among holders and the more holders we have, the harder to manipulate the market becomes!

I think that you missunderstoof that report. According to them, there are oiver 44 milliion of unique Bitcoin addresses in use and that is very different from "over 40 million  hwo owns Bitcoin" because people can have more Bitcoin addresses in use, and many do have (myself included) so the real number of bitcoin owners is much smaller than that.


It is safe to assume that will happen because more people get into bitcoin means higher price, which then in the end makes it harder for anyone to move bitcoin price in any direction.

The thing is that Bitcoin can be subject to the wimp and camporee of regulators and government, bitcoin is more of a movement of its own ideology e must have to accept that fact and if all things being equal government may not be able to totally regulate bitcoin but there could align themselves to it.

On the issue of volatility in Bitcoin, I think it is more of Bitcoin nature and development to be volatile since Bitcoin also has a key feature which is an asset, so since bitcoin is a digital gold that it demands also equal value in $ price it then means that at any point bitcoin will not be stable no matter the level of its adoptions.

Satoshi Nakamoto's idea was to create a decentralized currency that cannot be controlled or regulated by any centralized entity. So to answer your question, Bitcoin cannot be regulated by any government or centralized authority. The government can only regulate centralized exchanges like Binance, Kucoin etc. that trade Bitcoin and other digital assets by setting up rules and regulations that guide and control the activities of these exchanges which may have little or no effect on the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin volatility is inherent in nature, it is what makes it unique and beautiful. The price fluctuation is influenced by supply and demand.

Know this two facts about bitcoin and be rest assured for more courage on any related fear due to uncertainties about bitcoin, the first is that bitcoin cannot be regulated by the government, they have been trying to do that all these while but couldn't because what they are dealing with is not a centralized system that is attached to a particular network, persons or group of persons, bitcoin is decentralized and blockchain technology is well secured and immutable and as long as this two facts remain constant with bitcoin, they can't centralized it or regulate because bitcoin nodes work under the blockchain protocols and consensus.

The second instance is about the the volatility, why do you think bitcoin is volatile, because that's how the inventor which is Satoshi Nakamoto programmed the whole network and currency to be, whereby anyone can sell or buy independently through the use of the p2p network, some buy when dip, some hodl while some sell, the equilibrium shift in these makes the demands high or low with respect to the supply as well which then determines the price bitcoin is being sold.

Bitcoin volatility is mainly caused by the economic mechanism of demand and supply. The price will always go high when more people are buying. There will always be diverse economic factors that will make people buy or sell bitcoin so the value of the currency will never be stable. Regulating Bitcoin can be an effective means to reduce volatility because the government could make certain rules that can make the more stable. But regulating Bitcoin will be extremely difficult. Volatility will also reduce when Bitcoin is used solely as a currency and not as an investment, which is highly unlikely. Due to the uniqueness of Bitcoin, it will continue to be a store of values, and hedge against inflation and investment, so it might never be stable.

this is a pretty good question and i'll try to answer based on my view.

bitcoin is a decentralized coin and I'm sure everyone knows about it, this is what always makes the price of bitcoin always very volatile and will never be completely stable. The government will never be able to control bitcoin ^{(if they can then bitcoin has fallen into their control since a few years ago)}

volatile prices are the nature of bitcoin so changing it to be stable is an impossible mission, anyway there are stable coins scattered, why do you force and want bitcoin prices to be stable.

This is to be expected, as this is what happens with other assets. When they are born or created they go through a period of high volatility and as they mature and their market cap grows, volatility is reduced. This happens a lot with companies, hence the division between small cap and large cap.

Bitcoin is already heavily regulated around the world, what is missing is more adoption, which together with halvings will reduce volatility.

Nope.

They may control of regulations and rules but they will never control the volatility. Possible to move the markets and have themselves show the influence that they've got but it's not going to be permanent.

What is likely to reduce the volatility as what I've read before is whenever Bitcoin reaches the maximum supply. But how long do we need to wait for that? Estimated 2140, one hundred years and more from now.

Besides the fact that it is almost impossible to predict with accuracy the number of bitcoin users or holders, the article you linked contradics itself:
"• Over 44.15 million unique addresses have a non-zero balance of Bitcoin.
...
• About 46 million Americans (roughly 22% of the adult population) own a share of Bitcoin."

If 46 million Americans alone own a share of bitcoin, how can there be less than that amount in global unique addresses?

More adoption is the key to reduced volatility and not regulations. With more adoptions the price would not be shaken by the fewer weak hands who panic sell easily.

- Jay -

The answer is no, volatility is not controlled by the number of adoptions that reach Bitcoin, that is to say, the number of people who own Bitcoin is not responsible for controlling Bitcoin in any way. Talking about government regulation of Bitcoin, how can government regulate something they don't control? The regulation that the government wants is on exchanges, platforms, and people who are associating themselves with Bitcoin; regulating the currency itself is something they really can't control.

So the adoption of Bitcoin grows beyond this level, and the government succeeds in reaching out to the majority of the people by regulating a few crypto exchanges and passing bills that people (let's just assume they agree to) agree to. Those laws and regulations only bind the government and the individuals involved, not Bitcoin directly. Just as you have said, volatility is the nature of Bitcoin; it's part of what makes Bitcoin Bitcoin, so it can't change. We will always have a drastic change in price; that's one thing I know will never change with Bitcoin. No volatility means Bitcoin will be stable.

Regulation is definitely more effective to reduce volatility, it's need the biggest nation e.g. U.S. to control all of centralized exchanges and force them to open the market for 7 AM to 7 PM and the price difference of the coin can't be higher or lower than 5% in a day, this will make Bitcoin price more stable.

Bitcoin adoption could reduce the volatility if everyone already bought Bitcoin, but the reality there's always a new people want to start to buy Bitcoin due to many factors they can't e.g. lack of money, not ready to buy Bitcoin.

But which person want to see Bitcoin price is more stable? obviously not me.

As we know bitcoin is one of the most trusted cryptocurrencies and is considered the pioneer in the field. It has been in existence since 2009 when it was founded by Satoshi Nakamoto.
Reports suggest that as of February 2023, there are over 40 million people who own Bitcoin. There have also been discussions about regulating Bitcoin from various sources worldwide. On the other hand, volatility is one of the most prominent features of Bitcoin.
If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?