Is the black swan event not to be expected anymore?

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: mk4 on February 02, 2023, 11:59:10 PM

Just a quick note that a black swan event is an occurrence that will come out as an surprise. Literally the main point of a black swan event is that people aren't expecting it and you're asking if we should expect one?

Answering for OP, "Ser, YES. Let us call it expecting the unexpected". Hahaha.

Perhaps what we should truly be expecting is that with inflation getting "sticky" in many regions, there's high probability that the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks to continue to raise rates and actually cause a recession to crash demand, and control inflation, OR inflation will cause the recession for them.

Silberman

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Quote from: kamvreto on February 06, 2023, 02:13:00 PM

In the world of cryptocurrencies, black swans can be in the form of hard fork cancellations, massive hacking of cryptocurrency exchanges as happened on several exchanges in the past and FTX collapse events which ultimately hurt many investors. changes in government regulations that result in large losses for investors can also be called black swans. These events are very difficult to predict and often have a large impact on the crypto market. Therefore, investors must be wise and careful in making investment decisions in crypto, and must be prepared to deal with sudden changes that may occur.

Nobody expected a black swan event when they had to be in one.
it was totally unexpected, but some people who haven't entered expected a black swan event to happen to wait for the bitcoin market price to crash.

Black swans are by definition rare and unexpected events which almost no one could see coming, so we could always be hit by one when we less expect it, however those kind of events affect the most to those that have leveraged their position, but for those which are just holding their coins and are managing their money responsibly the effects of a black swan are not as adverse and you can easily deal with them by just avoiding selling your assets for a low price.

Baofeng

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Quote from: KiaKia on February 02, 2023, 12:15:38 PM

Why is no one talking about the black swan event? Or are you saying we aren't going to see that again? Is there a chance that things won't always be the same with crypto? Is the FTX crash the only pain part we will see in this bear market? If the pandemic of 2020 never happened we won't have seen a buying opportunity of 3500$ for 1 Bitcoin. What do you guys have to say about this? Are we going to keep side ways until 2024 BTC halving now?

And that is why you call them black swan, because it is something unexpected, chances of that to happen are slim and yet suddenly it will appear. No one see Terra Luna or the FTX collapse, specially the later when it was being manage and even went into the second biggest exchange during the height of it's success.

So I don't see the price going to $3500 this year or in this bear market. I think we have reach the lowest low already (this is just my opinion).

Probably some sideways, but maybe a couple of months before the halving, the price might see some light and go on a upside.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: KiaKia on February 02, 2023, 12:15:38 PM

Why is no one talking about the black swan event? Or are you saying we aren't going to see that again? Is there a chance that things won't always be the same with crypto? Is the FTX crash the only pain part we will see in this bear market? If the pandemic of 2020 never happened we won't have seen a buying opportunity of 3500$ for 1 Bitcoin. What do you guys have to say about this? Are we going to keep side ways until 2024 BTC halving now?

Expect the unexpected because the market could possibly be having those bombs which could happen on the least we do expect and this is where we should really prepare ourselves for whatever things that we might be able to encounter ahead.There's no way that we could really tell on what would be happening in the future. The lowest price on where the public or community is been aiming is on that 10-12k price point
which they are really that always saying up those levels of prices.

We cant tell whether we would be heading down and reach out those points or would really be just experiencing these casual retest and pullbacks in towards it price but slowly having
those gradual increasing pace that most people do fail on noticing it out.

kamvreto

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In the world of cryptocurrencies, black swans can be in the form of hard fork cancellations, massive hacking of cryptocurrency exchanges as happened on several exchanges in the past and FTX collapse events which ultimately hurt many investors. changes in government regulations that result in large losses for investors can also be called black swans. These events are very difficult to predict and often have a large impact on the crypto market. Therefore, investors must be wise and careful in making investment decisions in crypto, and must be prepared to deal with sudden changes that may occur.

Nobody expected a black swan event when they had to be in one.
it was totally unexpected, but some people who haven't entered expected a black swan event to happen to wait for the bitcoin market price to crash.

STT

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In Feb 2020 BTC signalled a negative pullback but it as the later pandemic playing out that made the low worse. It would have gone down anyway I think. As to now its similar in that BTC price action is amplified by the background market moves, US dollar has been going back down again since the Autumn which greatly helps restarted any positive action in BTC.
We will very likely revise prior action throughout 2023, that could be a dramatic recovery or sideways as you say. For now just making it through 20k prices is probably enough.

darewaller

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Quote from: yhiaali3 on February 06, 2023, 04:26:33 AM

Definitely not expected, if anyone was going to predict this event surely this wouldn't be a black swan event, simply because it is sudden and no one can predict it?

Yes, the FTX exchange event was a black swan because it was surprising to everyone because FTX seemed to be strong and its star was starting to shine brightly in the crypto market and suddenly everything collapsed.

You don't have to worry that when a black swan event happens, everyone will know about it.

For us the FTX collapse can be a black swan event because we didn't expect that it will happen but for those who are behind the FTX, it may not be because they might have planned it ever since the start but they try to hide it so that more and more people will trust them and then more money they can be able to steal.

The black swan event is an unexpected tragic event. People won't help it but to worry when it comes. The FTX collapse is not the first and it won't be the last, therefore a black swan event is always expected to happen but we shall only hope that the next one won't be severe as the FTX and the past black swan event's so that the growth of cryptos won't be disrupted again

yhiaali3

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Definitely not expected, if anyone was going to predict this event surely this wouldn't be a black swan event, simply because it is sudden and no one can predict it?

Yes, the FTX exchange event was a black swan because it was surprising to everyone because FTX seemed to be strong and its star was starting to shine brightly in the crypto market and suddenly everything collapsed.

You don't have to worry that when a black swan event happens, everyone will know about it.

MoonOfLife

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Quote from: KiaKia on February 02, 2023, 12:15:38 PM

Why is no one talking about the black swan event? Or are you saying we aren't going to see that again? Is there a chance that things won't always be the same with crypto? Is the FTX crash the only pain part we will see in this bear market? If the pandemic of 2020 never happened we won't have seen a buying opportunity of 3500$ for 1 Bitcoin. What do you guys have to say about this? Are we going to keep side ways until 2024 BTC halving now?

Every bear season, there will be a few black swan events to cause the market to crash, and in 2022 we saw 2 black swans, and I think that should be enough for this bear season. If you want to expect another crash, then you can wait until the next bear season and sometimes without bad news, bitcoin can crash as it is still a manipulative market.

hatshepsut93

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Because if you base all your actions on being prepared for a black swan, you won't achieve much. If you spend your money prepping for an apocalypse, you miss out an opportunity to enjoy life. If you don't buy Bitcoin because you are afraid of it crashing by 50% in a few hours, you miss out on opportunity to profit from a halvening cycle. If you are afraid of rapid economic collapse and hoard gold, you miss out on profits from stocks or real estate.

In my view getting prepared for a black swan event is a premium option, since it's a lot probability event, you should dedicate only a small portion of your portfolio to it. And if your portfolio is small, it's kinda pointless to do it at all.

goaldigger

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Probably yes, probably no.
There’s a lot of uncertainty in this market and talking about the black swan event, there’s still a threat of economic crisis and a war so technically there’s still no assurance for the big pump. This is why you should always take profit and timing the market, you can’t expect a big drop if there’s no negative news so for now focus on the pump and try to make profit out of it.

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Quote from: KiaKia on February 02, 2023, 12:15:38 PM

Why is no one talking about the black swan event? Or are you saying we aren't going to see that again? Is there a chance that things won't always be the same with crypto? Is the FTX crash the only pain part we will see in this bear market? If the pandemic of 2020 never happened we won't have seen a buying opportunity of 3500$ for 1 Bitcoin. What do you guys have to say about this? Are we going to keep side ways until 2024 BTC halving now?

Ok captain hindsight, what black swan event you need us to be talking about? Because all we have is black swan events in the past. It's by definition something unpredictable so we can agree that they will happen in the future or not. Most likely they will happen as they have in the past.

I really am hoping for sideways movement for a while. Moving too high now would be unsustainable and crash would kill portfolios as it would be many times worse with alts.

(Also i don't know where you got number $3500 for bitcoin dip, that doesn't seem to make any sense.)

stompix

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Quote from: mk4 on February 02, 2023, 11:59:10 PM

Just a quick note that a black swan event is an occurrence that will come out as an surprise. Literally the main point of a black swan event is that people aren't expecting it and you're asking if we should expect one?

That's the funny part!
Why is nobody expecting a surprise that would catch them off guard?
Guys, please be off guard as I surprise you!!!

Quote from: Husires on February 03, 2023, 01:22:47 PM

What happened from a temporary decline in march 2020 cannot be compared to what is happening now, because the price down from about $8000 to $3,867, which is less than 200 week-avg

Nope, it's not like the price would care about some 50-200 or 1000 moving averages of any kind! I've seen so many myths busted about the price not going below something the last year that I'm pretty sure that line is just asking to be crossed more times than you scratch a lottery ticket.
So many myths have been busted in the last year looking at any TA is like reading an alchemy book.

Quote from: Husires on February 03, 2023, 01:22:47 PM

All we expect is to continue with these prices unless a major event such as:

Third world war.
nuclear strike.
Binance bankruptcy

And yet, the crash happened without any of those happening, so what is preventing another?

Husires

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What happened from a temporary decline in march 2020 cannot be compared to what is happening now, because the price down from about $8000 to $3,867, which is less than 200 week-avg

So a collapse that bad is often followed by a quick rebound, which is not going to happen at the moment.
All we expect is to continue with these prices unless a major event such as:

Third world war.
nuclear strike.
Binance bankruptcy

buwaytress

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Really? Seen plenty enough mentions of it. And guilty here, I've mentioned it a couple of times since end of last year, last week I think most recently.

I personally think we haven't seen it yet (FTX and before that, Terra, those were confined to Bitcoin) -- I consider a proper one to have impacts across markets.

And, by definition, (again mk4 first to point it out) it should hit us by surprise. So probably when we all think we're out of the woods Wink

OgNasty

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Quote from: mk4 on February 02, 2023, 11:59:10 PM

Just a quick note that a black swan event is an occurrence that will come out as an surprise. Literally the main point of a black swan event is that people aren't expecting it and you're asking if we should expect one?

Yes, expecting a Black Swan sounds a lot like living a life of extreme paranoia so that you're right when something insane happens... If you could predict a black swan event, it wouldn't be a black swan event, it would just be an event.

Quote from: adaseb on February 03, 2023, 12:18:23 AM

I am pretty sure us going from $69K all the way to $17K and then everybody thinking we bottomed only to get the FTX implosion plus the contagion that came with it is the black swan. Look how much panic it caused. I was even freaking out. I almost sold all my crypto and sent to my exchange to withdraw into my bank account where it would be safe.

Yes I can be wrong and we can still go lower. However right now it all depends on the CPI data and unemployment numbers. If inflation is going to go up then we might get more rate hikes and if that happens then we might have some bad bank implosion like Lehman.

I agree. The timing of it being at the bottom of a 4-year cycle somewhat made it seem like regular market activity, but the truth is that Bitcoin would have hit $100K easily if it weren't for FTX stealing everyone's coins, dumping them on the market to buy shitcoins, and letting people think they owned Bitcoin when they really didn't. Given the timing, insanity of management, and where the money went (liberal politicians) I find it hard to believe this wasn't an orchestrated "black swan" event (if that counts).

adaseb

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I am pretty sure us going from $69K all the way to $17K and then everybody thinking we bottomed only to get the FTX implosion plus the contagion that came with it is the black swan. Look how much panic it caused. I was even freaking out. I almost sold all my crypto and sent to my exchange to withdraw into my bank account where it would be safe.

Yes I can be wrong and we can still go lower. However right now it all depends on the CPI data and unemployment numbers. If inflation is going to go up then we might get more rate hikes and if that happens then we might have some bad bank implosion like Lehman.

mk4

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Just a quick note that a black swan event is an occurrence that will come out as an surprise. Literally the main point of a black swan event is that people aren't expecting it and you're asking if we should expect one?

TravelMug

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Quote from: KiaKia on February 02, 2023, 12:15:38 PM

Why is no one talking about the black swan event? Or are you saying we aren't going to see that again? Is there a chance that things won't always be the same with crypto? Is the FTX crash the only pain part we will see in this bear market? If the pandemic of 2020 never happened we won't have seen a buying opportunity of 3500$ for 1 Bitcoin. What do you guys have to say about this? Are we going to keep side ways until 2024 BTC halving now?

We can never discount that we could still a black swan this year, no one see Luna or FTX. I know it has nothing to do with bitcoin but it did affect the market in a bad way.

Regarding the pandemic, probably, it's the biggest opportunity for us when the price goes down to $3500 in March 2020.

But I don't think that we will see that kind of opportunity again, most likely a black swan even can affect the price in the $10k-$12k levels.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: KiaKia on February 02, 2023, 12:15:38 PM

Why is no one talking about the black swan event? Or are you saying we aren't going to see that again? Is there a chance that things won't always be the same with crypto? Is the FTX crash the only pain part we will see in this bear market? If the pandemic of 2020 never happened we won't have seen a buying opportunity of 3500$ for 1 Bitcoin. What do you guys have to say about this? Are we going to keep side ways until 2024 BTC halving now?

Oh I see you are a type of person that, after seeing first black swan, bet that every next swan will be black. Its not how it works. Black swans are not called black swans without a reason. Its because of the fact that its an extreme rare event that no one expect to happen. Its not an every bear market must have. It would not be a black swan if it would happen every time market expect it to happen.

And stop thinking about halving as a 100% certain pump event, because a black swan event for you may be a dump instead of pump after halving. How about that? And why halving is not that important in my opinion?

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on January 31, 2023, 07:59:22 AM

1st halving reduced monetary inflation from 25% to 12%. Second halving reduced monetary inflation from 9% to 4,5%. Now we are getting closer and closer to the 4th halving that will reduce bitcoin monetary inflation from 1.5% to 0.7%. Both numbers are negligible compared to 8% official CPI in US, 10% in EU or 80% in countries like Turkey. Halvings fundamental impact on bitcoin price is getting lower and lower with every next halving in oppose to macro data, FED decisions, interest rates, recessions and of course ADOPTION.

jackg

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I'm fairly sure I fell asleep on that day when the price was at $8/$6k and woke up the next morning with the price at $5k, if you think that's something you can time well then go ahead with that thought but there's probably a decent chance you can't (I don't think it took too long to recover either). You also then need the resolve to buy a falling asset (and potentially watch it keep falling). If you were awake and online at $4/$5 when you bought, would you have coped with turning $5k to $3k over the course of an hour if you were monitoring it very diligently.

We might not even see a crash on that level either unless the stock markets crash too (like they did last time). There's a lot of strategies you could use and there's probably a lot of people on the sidelines with a bit of money waiting to buy events like that to make a quick profit but I don't think that's money you'll then be able to continue holding in your investment either (and would probably sell most of it when you think you've made a good profit expecting the same event to happen again).

KiaKia

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Why is no one talking about the black swan event? Or are you saying we aren't going to see that again? Is there a chance that things won't always be the same with crypto? Is the FTX crash the only pain part we will see in this bear market? If the pandemic of 2020 never happened we won't have seen a buying opportunity of 3500$ for 1 Bitcoin. What do you guys have to say about this? Are we going to keep side ways until 2024 BTC halving now?

Topic: Is the black swan event not to be expected anymore? (Read 199 times)