Topic: Is the halving already priced in? (Read 737 times)

For all I know, this halving period is different from the rest. Spot ETFs were approved before the "big event", triggering a massive "pump" on BTC's market price. I'm yet to see if the market will remain bullish during the remainder of the year. While BTC did reach a new ATH, it's still far from the projected $100k - $150k market price. Within 1-2 years from now, it's hoped the market will turn bearish. I mean if history repeats itself again.

You should always pay attention to the market to determine when it's the right time to buy and when it's the right time to sell. Buy low, sell high. The crypto market behaves in many strange and bizarre ways, so expect the unexpected.

This is what I've been waiting for. Many newbies and some veteran investors are making this mistake, most assuming that we will have a crazy bull season right after the halving is complete. But in the end, it won't happen and they will become frustrated, discouraged and will sell all their bitcoins at low prices because things didn't go as they expected. But when the majority has sold their bitcoins, it is also the right time to trigger the bull season, and those who have sold before will be Fomo and bought back at a higher price. That's how financial markets work, and I believe that as long as the crowd isn't complaining and isn't selling their bitcoins, there won't be a bull season.

I really appreciate those people who positively think that Bitcoin has a better future. Not all do this and many people change their minds when drops happen. Ever since, halving and ETFs has had a huge impact on the market making every halving another achievement.

History repeats itself is what we expect and people are not crazy buying Bitcoin without such optimism. It may be hard for Bitcoin to reach $200k but we believe that there is ATH around the corner after halving.

I buy some before halving, I think that is enough for now. Those who are not buying yet may consider this before the new ATH happens.

I do agree that people who sell based on news are making huge mistakes, sure there could be moments when they are wrong sometimes and there could be moments when they are right as well, so it is not like it is a new thing and we should probably look into that type of stuff as something important.

But, we are talking about a situation that is quite risky, it is clear that we are not going to get anything bigger than that. We could be considered as doing something nice, and that is why we need to focus on the coin itself, bitcoin is quite strong and while there could be bad news time to time, but we are not going to be getting anything better or bigger or worse in the end, just get it and hold it and you will be fine in the end.

It is good to see such optimism and I also share in this line of thought. Now it might seems like nothing is happening but towards the end of this year, when the effect of the halving will be obvious in the market, the price will likely begin to rise rapidly. The reduction in the mining reward will create the needed deficit to make this come to reality. At the moment, nothing much have changed because the halving just happened. Many people will be caught unawares in the coming bull run especially those who might be thinking that as we did not immediately see big moves in the market after the halving that the hype and excitement have gone. The market will respond to them in a way that they might end up regretting not trusting and holding tight.

Yeah, as a investor and been in the market for many years, we all know that halving price is not price in. It's that there is some emergence of new pattern like establishing a new ATH before the halving.

But at the grand scheme of things, we will see 6 digits at the end of the year. If not, then it could be early 2025 and then new all time high. This has been the cycle and it will still continue despite seeing for the first time that we have reach it before the halving.

I've always hinted at this in all related posts, it is a serious consideration and we should be very careful due to that. Not that we are perfect in our view but cautious for a possibility that what happened in the last 8 months could have affected the post-having effect of this season which is always believed to be greeted with a huge bull run. But since Bitcoin had even hit above the former ATH before this year's halving, I seriously doubt what could become of it this time going forward. It might be a situation where it will disappoint us all or a situation where the bullish effect will not be as much as people expected.

This should have been ascertained in the next 1 year from now, and if Bitcoin cannot breach the new ATH which is around $73,850, it will be a serious problem for the coin to move higher. However, it has nothing to lose as a good coin since I am sure it might preserve itself above the psychological level of $50,000. Doing that alone means that it has achieved a lot already. However, a breach of $73,850 could send it easily to $75,000 and above in a matter of days.

I would say that the sudden increase in price to $73k which gave rise to a new ATH compared to the old ATH was indeed beyond the expectations of many speculators so it does not rule out the possibility that your simple analogy will come true. The fourth Bitcoin halving based on a 4 year cycle is marked by a price comparison reaching $10k between $63k to $73k and high fees even though congestion has occurred several times.
This means that there will be a bull run which will make prices much higher after this halving.

Not even close, we are not even pricing in the halving at all, we are nowhere near that level yet. I am 100% sure that we will be on the road to 100k this year, before the year ends, either we are going to reach 100k this year, around the end of it, or we are going to reach it by the start of next year. I am sure that it is going to be pretty good, and we are going to end up with something that can benefit us for sure.

It is just that we need to make sure that we are not making any mistakes, sometimes there are some news and people react to that news and sell, then they make a big mistake, but because they sold, the market drops as well and their mistake ends up hurting us as well, we should try to avoid that as much as possible.

The market was correct himself after the many bull run in the market,So it was essential for the traders to hold their bitcoin at the bear run.Because the bear run won’t affect the traders who hold their money at the bear market.Only the new traders would not ready to hold the money in the bear market,they will cash out the money and use for the personal expenses with the minimum profit.The traders should not do this trading like the gambling,he should ready to hold the money like he doesn’t have any assets.The first thing should be learn by the trader is to hold for the longer period as much it’s possible.


The price of the bitcoin was stable now at the 60k mark,so the traders who satisfy with this price can sell their bitcoin.But the trader who doesn’t have any personal demand for money should hold the money in the bitcoin.Because we know the halves will happen through out this year.So the next halves will bring the traders with back full of dollars by just holding your money in the bitcoin.

Let's see it this way;
It is a fact that after halving will come bull run which will lead to the price of bitcoin attaining a new ATH;
This fact hasn't changed for the past 4 halvings and bull runs;
This time around, before the halving and the accompanying bull run, a new ATH is already attained;
What does this mean;
This should mean that the anticipated bull run will now be very massive than the previous ones. This is just a simple analogy.

We can expect the next bull run to work in the cryptocurrency market cycle and we will see something interesting. The point is that the next upswing in the market happened sometime after the bitcoin halving. This decrease in bitcoin supply is the catalyst for a bull market. Bitcoin prices rose after the halving although other factors may affect the market and there is no guarantee that this pattern will repeat itself. has traditionally influenced market dynamics making the halving a highly anticipated event in the cryptocurrency world.

The price of Bitcoin is fairly stable right now. Which is why it can be said that Bitcoin has not yet reached its maximum ATH. It may take months to a year, it's just that no one can provide this information accurately. Bitcoin is currently valued at $66,000. A few days ago I also saw the price of Bitcoin when it was 62000 dollars. It appears that Bitcoin may have started its bull run when the price of Bitcoin reached its peak and then Bitcoin halved its value. Past history shows that there have been several previous Bitcoin halvings where the Bitcoin price peaked at ATH and then halved again. I think Bitcoin's new ATH will cross $100k this time.

Yes. It is very interesting to follow the Crypto market after the Halving later where this moment gives birth to a new spirit. For now, what we should do is hold and avoid short-term volatility. If it does look like a crash, take it easy, because if not, it will also affect us too, many users feel pressured and will take revenge trading actions to recover it and eventually lose everything and in my opinion, anything can happen a strong decline or reversal at this moment where Bitcoin outflows from various financial institutions are high, So, read and work wisely otherwise we don't fall in the same hole.

I would say that the pump we have seen so far since October last year was probably related to the upcoming halving and now there is some uncertainty, but the halving has had its effect already. I think any positive price movements in the future are based on more people seeing the value in BTC.

But I think that the fees are highly problematic during these times when BTC is producing some good price action. Imagine you are a newcomer and want to purchase some BTC and move it around and suddenly you realize how expensive it is to move BTC. It could scare away some people. It's definitely not very positive when interested people realize this issue. I am not sure what to expect in the coming years regarding the fees, but it has been and will probably be a big issue in the future.

Bitcoin price halving has taken place in 2024, and Bitcoin price has the highest opportunity to increase after this halving. You will notice that since the Bitcoin EPF approval, the price of Bitcoin has pumped to the highest level and the halving is organized at the moment of this pumping. Due to which the price of Bitcoin has increased to the maximum and created new records.

Its always priced in because its a known quantity easily predictable but all the other factors we cant be sure on.  The dollar itself is constantly changing so no price is solid known now and into the future.

Over time the reduction in supply is measured vs the unknown quantity of demand that might occur, people selling into the market itself is a large factor also which is why I mention dollar because thats such a large factor in overall market sentiment and strength or weakness vs a speculative asset like BTC.

The lows of April have been in line with the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the prior ATH so maintaining that on a closing basis is quite bullish and some time or other we are going to resolve upwards beyond the old ATH as already been seen partially.  I dont believe havlening is enough to push us past before the autumn, other factors in combination might though.

It's halving time, but... The market isn't bullish yet. I ask myself how long it's going to take until we start seeing the impact of halving in crypto market for real. Actually, it would be too predictable to have an instant impact right now, and since it didn't happen, fear and insecurity take place in the hearts of the weakest investors who tend to sell their holdings in the first difficult they find ahead. As consequence the whales buy the dip and maximize their earnings as soon as the market gets bullish again.

Resistance level is hard to break at 64,000$, but Bitcoin is trying. Once it does, it will be good news towards more increasement in price. Support seems strong at 63,000$, so there is little margin for Bitcoin to play with for now (only 1000$). I see doubt and attentiveness in the air for the next steps Bitcoin is going to take. There is a feeling of unstability dominating crypto market, as many interests are at stake right now. It's an once in a life opportunity for many investors to become millionaires, and for few millionaires to become billionaires through Bitcoin.

You make a good point but since we are not going to be experiencing that soon therefore the opportunity at our front to buy Bitcoin when the price is dumping we have to take full advantage off and then sell before the whole liquidation of assets including Bitcoin starts happening when the world economy begins to collapse. The federal government do not care about the economy because they shouldn't be doing what they are doing by printing more money when they know it will only have a bad repercussions on the economy. The government wants to make it all look like everything is going on fine with their administration but they do not have things under control, they do not want people to lose trust in them but they are destroying the economy of the world by printing more money which is just an unfortunate situation.

In the short term? Yes. But in the long term, BTC should be able to reach a new ATH. The current dip could be attributed to rising tensions in the Middle East. Market prices will dip, but they're expected to "pump" in the long run as the world heads into uncertainty. I think the ETFs are just the tip of the iceberg. Who knows? The crypto market behaves in many strange and bizarre ways. So we should expect the unexpected.

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could eventually surpass Gold in terms of market cap. Buying and holding BTC now is the best decision to make. With Fiat currencies losing ground, I'm certain things will get better for Bitcoin and the whole crypto industry. The question is: Are you ready for the huge pump?

Prices have now dropped back below $60K slightly but are now around $60K.

Never assume that after the halving that time bitcoin will go up this will not happen so directly you have to know how the previous history is then I myself will be considered reasonable if after the halving the price is increasingly corrected maybe it will be associated with many other negative news.

There is no other way now except to survive or buy again, I think this is still a good opportunity even though in the end the price will still continue to fall but don't panic.

There must be changes and one thing for sure about bitcoin is that despite the ETF there will always be a price change, maybe the previous ATH that was gain was as the cause of ETF. Now we are about experiencing the halving which is just 3 days and some hours left away according to the record on coinmarketcap, the halving must surely plays its role since we do records new ATH after halving. Apparently, we can't dispute and neglect the history and for about 3 halving history has never changes, so the only changes we saw now was only the effects of the ETF which I still think there is every possibility we can still see more price surge after this halving comes 2025.

Few days before halving arrives yet ?

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/


I thought Yesterday is recovery but nope, it falls back to 62k and there is a big chances that
the price will fall below 60k, is this possible to happen as the halving mostly brings bad falls for the whole market.

Inflation means higher market prices for finite supply assets like BTC and Gold, right? With the global economy struggling to get back on its feet, we should expect BTC to reach a new ATH after the halving. Demand might've increased lately because of the spot ETFs approval in the US. But that's just the tip of the iceberg. The crypto market is unpredictable, so anything can happen.

Either market prices go up or all the way down the drain immediately after the halving. We won't know for sure until the event happens. One thing is certain and that is Fiat's days are numbered. Buying and "hodling" Bitcoin instead of saving money at a bank is the best decision you'll ever make. Who knows if BTC goes as far as replacing traditional currencies (Fiat) in the future?

It should be noted that the war situation in the world will also contribute to destabilizing the world economy. I expected 2024 would be the year everything entered a recovery phase and we would have a super cycle. But with recent news such as inflation showing signs of rising again, it is likely that the Fed will not lower interest rates this year as initially expected, news about war in the Middle East...Things are not as we expected and the bad macro situation will certainly have some impact on our bull season. But let's hope for a miracle, a market breakthrough like how bitcoin has shown during the Covid pandemic.

Bitcoin price will start to gradually increase only when the halving takes place, as there has been a lot of good news this year. All the good news coming in 2024 halving are positive so the peak Bitcoin market improvement is more likely after 2024 halving i.e. 2025 bull market. Bitcoin has made its new record high and is poised to make new records again.

This is an important realization and something that I have come across more often during those harder times in recent years.


There could also be the misconception at play that higher interest rates may give some people more money on the money they already have, but some of them might underestimate the undermining effect of fiat devaluation compared to higher income they are making from interest. Turning $10 into $12 doesn't give 20% more purchasing power.

There is also a trailing effect of shrinking prices in the real estate industry. That's where liquidity gaps can emerge from valuation of properties and interest rate effects when it comes to refinancing long-term loans when fixed interest rate agreements come to an end.

There is a lot of turmoil going on and all this uncertainty probably more negatively impact the ability and tendency of people to buy BTC as you said. Even more so, some see themselves forced to liquidate assets in order to keep their heads above water.

But the total effects cannot easily be assessed as we now have so many big players enter the stage at the same time and I can imagine that companies like Blackrock will hoard most of their BTC, removing them from circulation for the long-term.

Halvings will probably continue to have some psychological effect on the market, but I deem your points more relevant and probably gain more relevance throughout the future. It probably means that the share and power of commercial investors in the market will decrease as their scope of action will shrink first with continued economic turmoil.

The only thing that continues to worry me in this entire "cycle" is the worsening situation with the global economy. With the way they're printing money while increasing the interest rates they are going against all their own strategies since this causes both inflation and recession at the same time.

That means people will liquidate more of their assets (that includes selling bitcoin) to make ends meet as prices soar and also they'll have less money to invest. In other words inflation + recession means more sell pressure + less demand.

Last but not least the Dedollarisation hasn't been done enough to decouple other countries' economies from the dollar and the US economy that has been a Ponzi scheme for decades is heading for the iceberg like Titanic...

For me halving is already in place since bitcoin price or values cross forty thousand [40k] we all know that bitcoin halving has taken in place due to We have setup from the low variation of values since December last year, we started seeing a massive changes of bitcoin from 2023 and now the price has break another ATH, so we can not say right now that their is no halving...but in normal circumstances we  are suppose to expect halving in 2025 or within the middle of this year but the price of bitcoin might go down unexpectedly and return to variation of twenty five thousand to twenty thousand [25k/20k] if time is not taken the price will go down because it has happened before, after the price of Bitcoin rich 60,000 and the later it falls to Almost 25,000 before it started the rising again.

you are right because the gravity of the demand of Bitcoin makes the price to continue to accelerate in value so therefore I believe that the price of Bitcoin can be depreciated when the supplies higher than the demand so provided that many people are still holding their Bitcoin and they will be expecting the prices to be higher so that they will say that we continue to give the price of Bitcoin to be going up instead of coming down, but another thing that I can influence the price of Bitcoin right now is when a false information comes up that is when the price of Bitcoin can reduce in value but right now that everyone is holding Bitcoin the tendency of the price reducing is very high.

I think I will say that it is a speculation or exaggeration to people who thinks so, because right now I will say that nobody knows what Bitcoin can get into tomorrow we might enter 2025 and they will not experience having as expected by many people another information would also come up, and say that halving will commence in 2026, so what I want to ask you that if halving a commence today what indication that will show you that we are into halving except the price increasing.

Well, fees could rise post-halving. That is for sure. One should be prepared for such scenario by either moving to alts or using an off-chain scaling solution (LN). Within the initial days of the halving, there will be a lot of hype. Especially due to mainstream media propaganda.

I bet institutional companies will buy even more BTC, contributing towards higher market prices in the long term. Once they stop buying, we should see BTC losing a portion of its value in the short term. Many have predicted BTC to reach a price of $100k, so maybe the halving is not priced in yet. For what I know, the crypto market behaves in many strange and bizarre ways. As long as we're able to make profits, nothing else matters.

Hmm, that's absolutely right bro.
 
Bitcoin ETF is one of the main reasons behind the Bitcoin price like its new all time high of 74.2k . We can clearly see that since the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, the price of Bitcoin has skyrocketed and even still continues. And at the same time, the waiting time for Halving is about to end so first, the Bitcoin ETF will boom the price of Bitcoin and after that Halving will raise the price to the moon. And it will be a joy to watch when the price halve hits $200,000 I am so excited to see such things happening.
 
But anyway, beyond any doubt, if Bitcoin Spot ETF approval had not happened, then the price would not have reached this level. That is, if we see how much volume is bigger than ETF in Bitcoin. And those who used to call Bitcoin a pop up balloon are also surprised by Bitcoin and are trying to adopt it. Apparently, the massive gain that Bitcoin made was only possible with the approval of ETF. So when the halving happens and the price reaches 180k, 200k, then everyone will say that they are surprised that if they do not invest in Bitcoin, they will not get even an opportunity.

Well, I guess its normal because of the recent activity of bitcoin that it reached its new ATH and it keeps on crossing up to $70k. Consider that many might sell some portion of their holding, so its normal that the price of bitcoin will not stay in the $70k zone. Maybe after an event again like the ETF approval, I think one of the reasons that bitcoin is currently in a higher position now is because of the ETF and because bitcoin will now be easily accessed and they can easily buy bitcoin. Many brought bitcoin in the past weeks or months. Anyway, halving is coming near. I guess it will only take a few days. We will never know what will happen to bitcoin until it comes. Many say that bitcoin might skyrocket or the opposite; we can only wait for the movement, but I think the low possibility is that bitcoin will decrease in price.

I was wondering when we would see the "Is the halving priced in?" question coming up.
This came up just before the last halving too and it was just after a price rise then also
so some people were wondering if there would be a further pump after the event,
which there wasnt, the markets actually dropped briefly.

This time around is different though as is every halving really. Apart from the ETF's has
everyone who is speculating on the halving event bought in at this stage? I think its possible.

The Grayscale Bitcoin sell off has been a drag over the last few weeks, that has come to
an end from yesterday I think so that sell off is no longer an issue, we nay see a rise in the
markets from here on.

If this is what the priced in Bitcoin price looks then it is bad.  Very bad in fact.  We know Bitcoin has a lower percentage gain every Halving, but although lower, it has always still been an impressive one.

This time, we barely passed the last known All Time High.  If this is the priced in Bitcoin, it means we can barely make it to the All Time High now.  Which is SIGNIFICANTLY lower than expected, considering last time we went to this price up from around 20 Thousand Dollars.

So, better hope this is NOT the priced in one.  Remember Miners still have to earn a profit or to at least make it even in order to continue Mining Bitcoin.  With a Bitcoin that barely pushes to All Time Highs, this would be a very big red flag for Miners.

I sometimes don't understand the ones completely denying the pricing in!

For two years of bear market, we have only talked about the next halving, about the price will go up, about how that was the last opportunity to get cheap coins, how you need to hold and despite all those advice and strategies people have preaching about somehow there is no pricing in. How would that even be possible when everyone is taking the exact course of action that triggers the pricing, all have stopped selling because they want a higher price, this means the supply is already affected by the action devised on a strategy based on future events!


But it's still way up from the 20 million we were getting in September and October.
And if we hit 100k it will go to 45k, going above the read before the late February bull run that saw us top 50k.


Miners are business before anything else if you don't have cashflow and you risk either going completely offline or bankruptcy you will sell at a loss to keep the business going, for large miners under long-term contracts mining at -5% loss is way better than closing down with depreciated assets, debt and penalties.

The global economic situation has always been a trigger factor for Bitcoin to be slammed back.
Interest rates that continue to rise make selling pressure always there, even this is always a manipulative weapon.

The people behind interest rates will also want to buy Bitcoin cheaply, and then sell it at a fairly expensive price when interest rates are lowered.

As for how far Bitcoin's correction range will be, the $13k drop is quite a lot of decline, but it's still not over.
We will still see the actual correction that will occur when the halving is over, this will make some people start selling their holdings,
and they want to buy them again at a cheaper price.

Currently, the bitcoin trend is different from the previous halving trend and there are many influencing factors.
Most importantly, I am ready for any halving trend, will not sell my holdings until the real Bull run arrives.

Yes, it's safe to say $60k can be new support level and Bitcoin may not go below it but at the sametime it's been few days since Bitcoin has been used the $69k I don't think it would take long time for Bitcoin to crossover $70k once again. It's just waiting for one positive even tor now's and right now it's accumulation period.

What I am expecting now to Bitcoin is may it create a new floor price for halving and no longer revisit lower prices. After this, I would consider this as a longer term bullish sentiment. It's like a new higher low with an expectation not to get violated. At least 69K level for me to hold as if a resistance on higher time frame turn into support. Who knows? Price and social media is not crazy yet about crypto so I guess we are yet to create another top again. And until people turn euphoric, price will create a new high and hopefully won't trade below 60K.

That's the idea and so far we have seen this type of 2 phased rally on each halving which also is logical.
But keep in mind that there are still a lot of other things that are affecting the market like the situation in the global economy. For example I still have one eye on the interest rates and I believe if they go higher it will create a sell pressure on bitcoin, conversely if they go down they will create a massive buy pressure in bitcoin.

As for that correction, it already happened when price went down $13k (from $73k to $60k) and we are recovering from the correction heading back to $70k again.

The spot Bitcoin ETF was a different thing from the Bitcoin halving. Each of them may create its own hype. I guess the ATH was brought about by the hype of the spot Bitcoin ETF-- and, of course, the ensuing demand as well.

So, it is possible that the hype the halving brings might still push the price up. However, it is also possible that those who got the money which was supposed to be used to purchase Bitcoin in preparation for the aftereffect of the halving to the price have already used it in reaction to the spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

But I still believe that the bullish momentum created by the adoption of large institutions and will be followed by the halving would still bring the price to six digits.

If you are a trader then I have no opinion but if you are a long term holder then I don't think this is a wise move. While there is still a possibility that bitcoin will correct or plummet after bitcoin makes a new ATH before the halving, this is risky as it may or may not happen. No one can guarantee or be certain that bitcoin will correct deeper after the halving occurs.

We have been able to hold the bitcoins so far so there is no need to rush to sell bitcoins at this time. The 3 most difficult years of the bear season are over and now it's time for us to enjoy our efforts, I think we just need to wait a little longer. Selling bitcoin at this time for optimization is quite risky and not recommended.

I predict that this cycle has run faster than previous cycles. Therefore, instead of Bitcoin price breaking its ATH after the halving, it has now broken its ATH before the halving event. And with the correction of nearly 20% in recent days, it quite coincides with the period of Bitcoin adjusting after the halving event in previous cycles.

Maybe many people expect the correction to be as big as in previous cycles, but I actually think it's quite difficult when the cash flow from ETFs into market is still very steady and the real demand for buying Bitcoin has increased many times higher than before, so it will not be easy for Bitcoin price to adjust deeply.

I have noticed that people's psychology in the market has been quite confused recently when all historical data seems to be inconsistent with what is happening with Bitcoin price. They don't know whether to continue buying at the current price or continue watching to wait for a really big correction after the halving event. In my personal opinion, on Bitcoin's upward journey, there will always be adjustments, which are necessary for the market, but the level of adjustment in this cycle will not fluctuate sharply when possible decreased more than 50% in a few days like previous cycles.

So we just go through the first wave of rally, and the second wave will be bigger and will certainly reach a new ATH that is crazier but with slower timing than before.

The rally after the halving has been the most awaited, but before that happens I think the price will tend to correct first to gather considerable volume and then continue until a new ATH is created again, maybe above $100k according to the target that many people expect.

My experience and pure feeling about markets tells me it's not priced in. I am not reading all predictions from others or TA at this point as i knew it's going to be a bumpy ride.

During every huge bull markt there are always some perma bears ready who will jump to push their agenda when ever there's a slightest dip, and they see that as a confirmation for their bias. And of course once in a blue moon they are right, but this is not the time. And this goes both ways, as there are perma bulls as well.

Everyone who have seen few actual bull runs should see that we are in the middle of one of them. And they always have bounces because that's how volatility works. I would be really worried if bitcoin would just keep going up without any corrections.

Yes. I strongly believe that the halving has already been factored into the price we’re seeing today. Unless there would be another wave of hype, this is just about what we’re getting for now. However, I believe that after the halving, Bitcoin would gradually step up again, at least on or before the year gets to the 3rd quarter.

Halving is the only BTC event that we can be sure will happen after every 210K blocks, and coincidentally, it often drives rapid growth in BTC price in the 6-9 months after Halving. I think Halving with the narrative of doubling scarcity has become one of the important drivers for BTC price to recover from the bottom and continue to grow. Coincidentally, Halving happens every 4 years and the global economy also has a 4-year cycle, this could be Satoshi's careful choice to help BTC grow thanks to the loosening of money flow in the economy.

I also think that the positive impact of Halving has been absorbed into BTC price, meaning that Halving could be a sell the news event, causing BTC price to not be able to grow as strongly as expected, but will adjust in the short term to re-accumulate and transfer money flow to altcoins and we will have an altcoin summer similar to 2020.

However, we also have spot BTC ETFs, this product has contributed to creating ATH before halving, and when investment consultants can introduce this product to their clients, we can witness the growth of net inflows and BTC price will continue to receive positive impact from this. We have too many variables that make predicting BTC's price action around halving more complex!

Soon, Bitcoin halving will occur. It looks like reaching a new ATH before the halving, this might have a chance to happen, but it's not that big. markert will probably focus more on the halving first and see how it develops. Later, after the halving, that's the time to pump again, to try to test the price to the next ATH.

Although, currently, various price predictions are sometimes wrong, due to the case of selling confiscated BTC in the US yesterday. and also several down trends which made the BTC price volatile enough to go down. And maybe this isn't the peak of the drop yet.

but what is certain is that our confidence in BTC reaching a new and much higher ATH is definitely there, 99% will be there. And that happened after the halving, who knows a few months later. The hope is as soon as possible, even though that means we also have to get through this period as quickly as possible.

Yeah, it can be felt that for now where when previously the Spot ETF became a new milestone that bitcoin experienced a significant increase even to touch a new ATH where it rarely happens which makes the condition of bitcoin more difficult to predict its future but on the other hand I still believe that Halving always provides answers that are more in line with my expectations so in this case I think bitcoin will still exceed our thinking especially in terms of price so it is not impossible in the sealnjut period when bitcoin enters the halving time we will find a new ATH that we cannot predict before because indeed the movement of bitcoin with scarcity beyond our thinking, especially in terms of price so it is not impossible in the next period when bitcoin enters halving time we will rediscover a new ATH that we could not predict before because indeed the movement of bitcoin with better scarcity, there will certainly be a situation where the price will be higher and it is not impossible that for this new ATH always provides expectations in accordance with what we expect.

So many are already being skeptical about the price movement is now different from other years that Bitcoin actually waver around it's old ATH until after the halving before the new set ATH is achieved but for this year it's all different. But from my end although this is my first real involvement during a halving year so I think am still positive about the price moving or going up to atleast 100k after the halving is all over.

To be honest, I don't expect a massive pump before halving. Rather, I am expecting a pump after halving. The last pump was due to ETD hype, which was almost gone. Now that Bitcoin is stable, it is likely that during the halving we won't see significant price movements. From past history, we have seen the Bitcoin pump later halve. So this time it would happen the same thing. It's because Bitcoin has already pumped and is now taking a break. We can say we are preparing for another pump that will break the $80K zone. Even not this year, but next year expect to trade above $100K in Bitcoin. 

I don't think it is.
Historically, all halvings were beginning to be priced in months later and that's because the effects of the halving are long term. You can't expect the halving to move price right away because it affects coins mined in the future, but the farther we get from it the more of these new, more expensive coins enter the market and nobody will want to dump them below the mining cost. Many people underestimate the inflationary pressure from miners, but it's there and it's constant. We are getting 900 new coins every single day and it may not enter the market daily, but over the course of a month or two you can expect a large part of it to be sold. This is going to be cut in half soon and 450 btc less every day is a big deal. It's around $30 million worth of bitcoin less every single day!
IMO we're going to experience at least one more big push this year and possibly another one next year before the bear market comes. Cycles are still here but we got that early bull thanks to the ETFs which doesn't change the fact that bull market should last for at least another year.

Looking back in the history of Bitcoin prices, I have known that Bitcoin usually reaches its bull price peak a year after the halving has taken place. Although Bitcoin has never reached an all-time high before halving, since that has happened this year, that doesn't mean it is going to be the latest price of Bitcoin for the bull season; perhaps the bull season is not even yet over. Bitcoin is not yet priced in; we have until after next year to believe that we'll finally be facing a bearish season.

Bitcoin crosses its ATH in certain cycles and this crossing is much higher than the old ATH. The price is not currently at a high level relative to the ATH, so there hasn't been a pricing development yet. I think it's too early to talk about that because I think we will see a new ATH and that ATH will be much higher than the current ATH.

The halving might be priced in, but I think it's better to focus on the next ATH as we can't be sure about that.

I don't expect a big change in Bitcoin price after the halving, but if the pricing didn't happen before the halving, Bitcoin could make a positive price move. Still, being cautious protects every investor.

It appears that it has been priced in. I believe we are currently in the "post halving" dip.

I don't think with bitcoin has higher price when halving time, since break the all time high price until $73k bitcoin get difficult position break out more higher price again. Seems is the higher price of bitcoin and halving can't give any positive impact yet for bitcoin reaching more higher price behind two weeks left and bitcoin can't raise up significant.
Some investor keep waiting will has chance new higher price for bitcoin or will drop after halving time, current bitcoin have too expensive after raising drastically since dropping drastically last year. I have sold my bitcoin assets and waiting moment with bitcoin going drop to buy back or potential how bitcoin grow up to make another all time high price.

No one knows the real answer but everyone hopes that it will go much higher

I don't think that price of halving will be same as that of current price and 73k$ is all the time high price but we will soon see that price will hit this value too. Halving has not taken place yet so everyone is Estonished that if the value is 73k$ before halving then what will be the price during or after halving so it has created a thoughts among the people that may be bitcoin does not exceed than 73k$ in current year.

But I think that it will go more higher than 73k$ and halving price will be totally different from that of present price. People are still waiting for another ATH so I think if buying become more successful then very soon halving will bring the value that will not be in our mind as everything is unpredictable.

Imho opinion yes. The price will normally correct harsh after the approval of ETF confirmed that pump the price to around 40k to 50k that time. Bitcoin halving effects makes the pump from ETF longer and sustain to 60K level even though the price show some weakness sometimes.

People are still not in panic mode because they knew that halving event is still upcoming. Usually the effect of Bitcoin halving take effect before the event then price discovery will follow after the event slowly.

I'm of the opinion too that halving is not priced in, considering that we've seen for the first time a new ATH before it, and the bull run is still in it's very early stage, it's most probable that during post halving after supply is cut in half that we're going to experience price surge and see a new ATH. Except for the Bitcoin ETF that made us to see a new ATH before halving, I think that everything will go as it used to during the past halvings, although I'm expecting a massive bull run that'll give us a mind-blowing ATH in it's peak.

Like the cycles we have gone through, the difference that is most difficult to predict is when the ATH has been reached while the Halving has not occurred. You could say that it violates the previous halving scheme which was basically Halving -> ATH but now it is reversed to ATH -> Halving, automatically our calculations will be reversed or even with a phenomenon like this the future cycle will also change. It makes sense what you say where it could be that the Halving is now relatively the same price. There is only one thing that makes me doubt, namely regarding adoption which is supported by the decreasing supply in circulation. In other words, there are 2 schemes, namely first, the price during the halving is relatively the same or vice versa the price will record new history again.

People are debating if the upcoming halving's already factored into the price. Some folks say it is, but frankly, they're missing the bigger picture. The Bitcoin market is smart, but it can still surprise you. Saying something as huge as the halving is completely priced in? Thats naive. The halving cuts the supply of new coins - simple economics, that makes things more valuable. We've seen this pattern before.

Maybe some short-term effects are priced in, but the long game is different. Markets react ahead of time, but the real impact comes later. With the supply dropping, and demand staying strong (which, lets be real, is likely with Bitcoin), prices have room to grow. And remember, Bitcoin's a revolution, not just another stock. Spot ETFs in America, thats a major step - more investors, more acceptance. This is about long-term growth, about making Bitcoin a truly established asset.

So, is the halving priced in? Partly, maybe. But keep your eyes open, because the best part is yet to come. Markets are never static, there are always more factors than just one event. The months after the halving could be steady, sure, but theres major potential for growth too.

we cannot completely assume for what is likely to be the outcome of this halving this month if the market will rise more immediately or go bearish then later continue to pump, we can recall on the way or pattern we had with the approval of bitcoin ETF in the beginning of this year, we realized a bear market and later everything begin to change all of a sudden, this year halving may also come in with such patter whereby the market may fall after the halving only to find an avenue of rising beyond targets to new all-time high, but let's keep speculating and expecting on what may come in before and after the halving.

Of course the best we could do is speculate.

No one will know for sure how will the market move or which way it will go however there is a huge chance that it corrects post-halving before it pumps. Now that we are in the month of april, expectations run high. All we have to do now is to plan the best way we can and always expect the unexpected.

The halving is not priced yet because basically, the price is just within the range of the previous ATH so we should be expecting some post halving pumps which will be during the bull market because since the price reached a new ATH before the halving it is expected to create another ATH that will take over the $73k it is now and it can be achieved during the bull run

Yes, this is the only model you need to see the proof:

https://planbtc.com/s2fchart.png

This probably describes best what's going on. Coming up with a technical explanation for the BTC price to rise or not around the halving isn't very helpful on an individual basis. It still remains pure speculation, but the psychological tendency of the majority of people is probably the assumption that the price still rises. The perceived increased scarcity when the block reward drops is likely to have a bigger impact on the price than the idea that the scarcity concept is already priced in and people may take profits around the halving.

It is the same with expected and actual inflation and how expected inflation drives actual inflation. It often needs time and only via a moving average can realistic conclusions be drawn where people really thought the inflation rate would end up being.

BTC's price could be overpriced, or underpriced, but the interesting thing about expectations in the BTC network is that halvings are hard-coded. Inflation isn't hard-coded and can depend on a million of things, like a pandemic, logistic problems, war, trade wars, climate, etc. One could assume that expectations could be priced in easier for the BTC network since increased scarcity isn't the result of unexpected events, and yet it is a hard nut to crack.

I believe it is more about a narrative when it comes to halvings. They have manifested themselves as being BTC price booster, but technically they shouldn't be as everyone can look up the schedule and then make up their minds about a potential future price tag. The truth is that BTC reflects far, far, far more of the complex world than just a pre-defined halving schedule / programmed emission curve / scarcity. But the halving schedule is the easiest to understand of all the things that BTC interacts with. It's something people can easily follow via a countdown. However, complex developments like geopolitical tensions or aspects from political economy aren't something that many people can reasonably evaluate. That's why I think these halvings, despite being perfectly predictable, can still set free some of the known herding behavior.

People have said this every cycle & it’s always been proven that the halving is not priced in. Expect more aths in 2024 & 2025. I don’t make the rules, this is how Bitcoin works.

Yeah, ever since COVID recession, the cycles in Bitcoin world has been broken and market is not acting the way we are used to. So we see "new" things ever day like the last cycle (the one between this one and the 2017 bubble) was cut short abruptly and we never actually had a true ATH/bubble like all the cycles.

Halving rises have always had 2 phases:
1. The pre-halving rally
This is a rather quick and small rise mostly based on hype where market participants emotionally keep buying bitcoin knowing the price goes up. It always ends as we get close to the halving date (usually ~1-2 weeks till halving IIRC). Then there is a correction.
So far things look like before. A big "emotional" rise followed by a correction.

2. The post-halving rally
This is the actual rise which is a lot bigger and it happens because the supply creation rate is actually cut by half (50% reduction) by then and its effects show up in the market and on the price. This starts slower and continues speeding up until we see that big bubble at the end (assuming the same cycle-type thing happens this time).


Considering that we are about 2 weeks away from halving and price doesn't seem to like to rise anymore we can say that the  first phase is priced in.

Bitcoin did dump immediately after the ETF approval, but massively climbed up just two weeks later. No other event could have caused such a price increase on such short notice. Actually, Nasdaq.com explains perfectly why this phenomenon occurred. According to Nasdaq, this phenomenon (Bitcoin's crash after ETF approval) is caused by "selling the news, which is the act of profit-taking by shareholders after a good news break.

Quoting the rest of the paragraph for reference:
As thecodebear already mentioned, Bitcoin has surpassed the previous ATH, but it's still at the previous ATH levels. With that being said, from how I see things, Bitcoin's halving effect hasn't taken place yet, as we've seen massive differences in ATH after the each cycle, and what we're seeing are the results of the ETF approval and pre-halving anticipating effects that are driving up the price.

Yes, it is difficult to predict what bitcoin will do after the halving, it could be dumped the same way market makers did when the ETF was approved . I remember when the news that the ETF was approved by the SEC was released, everyone was excited and waiting for a crazy price rally with that news. But suddenly bitcoin was dumped and people became disappointed, and while everyone was disappointed bitcoin suddenly pumped up. I believe that scenario will be used again as the halving approaches , but in the long term, I am still waiting for a big bull season later this year and into 2025 .

They say that there will be a bigger correction that's about to come. So, if those speculations you will give it to them then it's not yet priced in and there will be a lesser price before or after the halving comes.

But what's even with that?

The price of BTC regardless of being priced in this halving or if there will be a greater correction, the ones that have been holding for so long will never get affected or worried with this.

Oh, that strong sensation of deja vu....I recall several threads speculating about what BTC might do pre/post-halvening, and IIRC members who thought that it was priced in were shot down (or at least there wasn't much support for that theory).

I happen to think all of the halvings are priced in, and that's if there's anything to price in at all.  There's no reason why bitcoin should do anything when the block reward gets chopped in half, right?  Just because the miners need a higher price to keep them in the black doesn't provide an impetus for anything at all to happen to the market.

And I remember writing a few times that no matter what my opinion is, bitcoin could rise based on people speculating that the halving is going to boost the price, and I think that's happened.  Ah, I don't know.  I'm just going to watch like I always do and root for $100k--but I'm hoping it gets there gradually, not in a massive 2017 spike.

I had a different views from yesterday and backward but after reading through your post, I'm giving it a second thought. What I think will happen is that the halving might not initially trigger big surge in price because most of the gains have already been recorded as a consequence of the ETF approval. But later in the year when the supply of freshly mined Bitcoin will reduce causing scarcity in the market, that will trigger the imbalance in demand/supply, hence the surge in price will become noticeable.

I'd say it greatly depends on how you look at it.
Technically I think that we can consider halving priced in, but then we trivialize/almost ignore the buying pressure coming from ETFs.
And of course, if we take only ETF into account, then we can say that halving is not priced in.
I'd say the truth is somewhere in the middle and neither halving, not ETF are fully priced in, hence the price will keep rising.
Just don't expect miracles in the halving day. Maybe blatant market manipulation, but that's also uncertain.


PS. This may be more appropriate for speculation, don't you think?

I agree if the priced in is limited to during halving event i.e. April 19-20, 2024, but if you meant for price in the next year too, I have to disagree.

$73K is small IMO, I'm sure Bitcoin won't have any problem to reach $100K, $100K is the smallest speculation in this halving event, I expect it could reach $150K in the next year.

The ETFs volume is keep increasing everyday, even though the adoption isn't as high as last month.


https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/bitcoin-etf/cumulative-spot-bitcoin-etf-volumes

It’s hard to say. These bitcoins etfs are difficult to predict how they will affect prices. As soon as they launched, Bitcoin dumped.

It went below the $40K and all of a sudden the flows were positive and they were positive
Until $74K top and then they started to flatten and turn a little negative.

So was the halving priced in? Hard to say. When we hit $40K, I didn’t think we would hit a new ATH either.

It is a first time in Bitcoin history and it is contributed a lot by speculation on probability of Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals, then after approvals it was contributed by massive new capital from those ETFs. Without them, Bitcoin would have not made a new all time high many weeks before its halving in 2024.

First we have to look at its new ATH that is not too higher than 2021 ATH and today price is around its ATH in 2021.

Second we have to look at trading volume. Trading volume recent weeks in 2024 is about one third or half of trading volume around days when Bitcoin made 2021 ATH.

I believe price will not have reason to take off quickly after halving but we will gradually see new capital in and new ATHs in 2024.

I don't think it will ever be the same as the price is now because as there are known scarce amount of BTC that will ever be, it's supply would just be less and less and if we are just here and the price is already at this range, as long as no one sells their BTC, it would increase more in price. The longer we stay in a certain range, the more likely it could go up because people would get used to that price already and would not want to sell for that amount.

At this point, your theory would be valid because bitcoin never had this before which means that it could go with either halving making the price go even higher or lower or stable, what happens after halving because of this happening could be an endless possibility, it will not be the same as when halving starts and passes, expect the price to rise, it's not the case on this one anymore. It's going to be more preparations more than ever too because with all the possibilities, you need to prepare on each situations that would happen; in the case that the price goes up, you need to up your investment game and increase what you're hodling, in the case that it would go down, you need to increase your savings in fiat so you can get more value out of bitcoin and you don't miss out when the price of bitcoin gets cheaper and in the case of stability in prices, probably do both I guess but much more milder.

If the halving being priced in meant that all Bitcoin did was return to around the old ATH, then all it would ever do is return to the old ATH each cycle, and not actually go up further. Follow me?

Bitcoin is ONLY around the old ATH. Every cycle Bitcoin goes MUCH higher than the old ATH. So the halving can't possibly be priced in, because we haven't even yet had a bull run that goes massively far above the old ATH.


Every market cycle, once the ATH high gets broken by a good amount, the media gradually starts reporting more and more about how Bitcoin is crushing its old highs, and gradually over months more and more new people come into the market. That hasn't even started yet. The next retail wave has even started coming into the market. We're honestly probably a few months away from that even starting, because first they are going to need to be hearing about Bitcoin blowing past the old ATH for a while. Going a few thousand dollars above the old ATH for a couple weeks doesn't do the job.


If the price were currently at like $140k or something, you could reasonably ask if it is already priced in. But seeing as its currently about a thousand below last cycle's peak, the answer is no, it isn't priced in, the bull run is barely even getting started. To compare to the last two bull runs, right now it's like early 2017 when Bitcoin was hanging around the previous ATH for the first few month of the year, of in late 2020 when the price hung out around $17k-$19k for a few weeks before finally breaking $20k. Of course the details will never be the same, and thanks to the ETFs the price got up to the old ATH about half a year early, so we can't say "oh well last time it was a few weeks and then doubled quickly so this time we should expect it to double by end of Spring". That obviously doesn't work. But what we can say is that the price is only at the old ATH, which means the bull run is only just starting, or about to get started. The big frenzied hype boom phase hasn't even started. We should probably be looking for a peak for this cycle within 12 months, perhaps very late 2024 or winter/spring 2025. You really don't need to be worried about it being priced in yet. Just as in 2017 the halving wasn't priced in when the price hit ~$1150, and in 2020 the halving wasn't priced in at ~$20k.

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.