Is the upcoming Bitcoin halving triggering the rise of Bitcoin?

Oceat

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Quote from: omonuyak on June 22, 2019, 02:03:45 PM

Quote from: DustyRah on June 22, 2019, 01:41:09 PM

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

I think bitcoin is becoming something that poor people may not be able to use it in future based on the way things are going. If we are having halving in 2020 and the market has started to react to that now that we are in 2019 it means by 2020 June bitcoin may be above $100,000. I am hearing about this reduction in supply of bitcoin by 2024 and that is going to create scarcity and bitcoin may be more than $1,000,000 then.

I still don't think so, there would be no chance that Bitcoin would reach that price by next year. You are basically asking a 10x growth of price in the next six month that is unlikely to happen. Let's just be realistic here by looking at the chart price of Bitcoin in the previous months. How would you find it that the price next year would touch the six-digit?

cocoadreamboy

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Quote from: DustyRah on June 22, 2019, 01:41:09 PM

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

If you have no idea of what the creation cost is, how would you know how the halving will affect the price?

You can get creation cost data here:

https://www.amsinger.org

Hope you find it useful!

Aaron

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Quote from: South Park on June 26, 2019, 04:07:56 PM

We are almost one year away from the day the bitcoin halving will occur so if this rally is based on that only I doubt we will be able to sustain the growth that we are seeing, so I prefer to think there are other reasons for it, probably the most obvious was that the price of bitcoin was artificially low and whales took advantage of this and bought huge quantities of bitcoin for a cheap price, and once the growth started people looking for fast profits immediately joined the market fueling the current bubble that we are seeing.

If I'm not mistaken, the price was not increasing much back then prior when the last halving occurs. Should be the same for today's trend? Not that I will say completely NO since we can fairly say that Halving might be "ONE OF THE REASON" since most people now know what happened after the last halving.

There are no specific reasons why we are seeing a price movement like this today but there are lots of factors that can be considered. The price sustain its foundation at each price level resulting for some people to think that "it's now the right time to make an entry!" that further adds some fuel.

But honestly, even I like what's the price is showing today, I'm slowly seeing the same 2017 hype. Hope it's not.

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Quote from: DustyRah on June 22, 2019, 01:41:09 PM

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

We are almost one year away from the day the bitcoin halving will occur so if this rally is based on that only I doubt we will be able to sustain the growth that we are seeing, so I prefer to think there are other reasons for it, probably the most obvious was that the price of bitcoin was artificially low and whales took advantage of this and bought huge quantities of bitcoin for a cheap price, and once the growth started people looking for fast profits immediately joined the market fueling the current bubble that we are seeing.

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Quote from: Shinpako09 on June 24, 2019, 04:36:10 PM

As we've seen in the past, yes, it could be the one triggering the price. We all know if it's halving then we are also expecting a new ATH to be set. We are still in June 2019 but look the effect of upcoming halving is taking on. If we are going to have increased in every month until the end of this year then, maybe we'll doubled or tripled the previous ATH.

With some confirmed statement we can't say this to be the triggering factor for the rise in bitcoin price that we're experiencing at the moment. It is also a factor corresponding to the rise on the price of bitcoin. Thinking about the previous bull run that we experienced by 2017 it can be understood clearly that the growth took effect once after the days of 2016 halving.

BitHodler

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Quote from: veleten on June 24, 2019, 03:32:36 PM

my guess would be the infamous Libra news triggered the bull run

The bull run started the moment we saw that $1000 candle from $4000 to $5000 in April. Nobody at that point knew of Libra, nor did people know that Facebook would announce their coin this or next year.

As technicals improve, algorithms pick up on that and trade the market up. Averages crossing in a bullish manner help them become even more bullish. Based on that I'm saying that it started as a technical rally.

Another thing is that Litecoin has a positive effect on Bitcoin, and with how it has been pumping due to the halving being so close, it takes Bitcoin with it because we're going to see a halving take place as well.

Shinpako09

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As we've seen in the past, yes, it could be the one triggering the price. We all know if it's halving then we are also expecting a new ATH to be set. We are still in June 2019 but look the effect of upcoming halving is taking on. If we are going to have increased in every month until the end of this year then, maybe we'll doubled or tripled the previous ATH.

magneto

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Quote from: DustyRah on June 22, 2019, 01:41:09 PM

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

I think that there will be two main factors that will contribute to halving pushing prices up.

Firstly, the fundamentals that it brings mean that newly mined coins become more scarce, which essentially means that the average cost of mining a coin will most likely increase. This should push supply of new coins entering the market significantly down, and prices up.

However, the more important aspect of this in my opinion is actually the psychological aspect, which may result in bigger effects than the fundamentals. People have certain expectations for the halving now because of how prices have historically went up with the halving event, which means that it becomes almost like a self fulfilling prophecy.

I think it's too early to speculate on magnitude of the rally the halving brings, but I think that it'll be imminent that a rally does occur.

veleten

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the halving influences the price , historically , but this one is too early to affect the price
my guess would be the infamous Libra news triggered the bull run , but this can be a plethora of factors
this article is pretty good at describing the halvenning* and its influence on the bitcoin price :
https://blog.usejournal.com/bitcoin-halving-price-effects-and-historical-relevance-b63458216d97

adaseb

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In the previous bitcoin halving cycles the price went up in a similar way but at a much slower pace. If you look at a chart and see the 50/25BTC halving dates you will see that it went up slowly, not parabolically as it is right now. So this drive might not be due to the halving.

Another thing you need to consider is that the halving will reduce block reward from 12.5BTC to 6.25BTC, so it means only 6.25BTC less per block. This had a bigger effect in the 50/25 halving since it removed 25 BTC per block. However the price right now is much higher. So if you consider the first halving where BTC was like $10, it means that $250 less of selling pressure. If you consider the 25/12.5 halving the price was $650 so about $8125 less selling pressure. If we assume BTC will stay at $11K for next year until halving it means about $68K less selling pressure.

I just think this is BTC continuing its bubble from $1K to $20K and to $3K correction and now should broke the $20K again. We will see what next year brings.

STT

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Its still a year away and this is too much of a rise just to be explained in that way. Part of the rise is a rebound from artificial lows from forced selling individuals connected to forked BTC chains, these sellers represent pricing outside market demand and lower the price for that moment but not by overall long term market consensus.

I wish I had realised at the time that deliberate and forced selling could mean the price is then weak enough at that point to bounce back so forcefully, but lesson learned. There are other factors but that one would be larger then the alteration of the block reward in the future, that event itself is speculative as the change is only cumulative

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Quote from: omonuyak on June 22, 2019, 02:03:45 PM

I think bitcoin is becoming something that poor people may not be able to use it in future based on the way things are going. If we are having halving in 2020 and the market has started to react to that now that we are in 2019 it means by 2020 June bitcoin may be above $100,000. I am hearing about this reduction in supply of bitcoin by 2024 and that is going to create scarcity and bitcoin may be more than $1,000,000 then.

Bitcoin hitting $100,000 or more in the future doesn't mean most people can't afford to use Bitcoin. The minimums of most exchanges are usually lower than 1 BTC or fiat equivalent of 1BTC. Despite the network getting filled every day with unconfirmed transactions others that don't want to spend a lot on miner fees can always make use of off-chain transactions with the Lightning Network.

thecodebear

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I think the halving this time around is going to be more priced in than the last time, because people have been talking about the halving being a big deal for the past year. As such, I think this bull market might be coming to an end about a half year after the halving, rather than it really starting to heat up a half year or so after the halving. Of course the halving will have a direct effect on supply and therefore price, but the increased demand due to halving hype I think has certainly already begun.

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If it is then the price increase should have happened on a much later date not as early as right now. If we are talking about the demand rising because of the halving, it would just simply be too far off to be even considered. The price increase we are just seeing now is due to the fact that Bitcoin's bull season is way overdue and we are just experiencing the effects from it right now.

WinslowIII

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Maybe it's whales who want to shut the door on avg Joe being able to buy a whole bitcoin? because if that was the motivation, I do believe they have succeeded (assuming it doesn't dump below $5k again.)

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While the bitcoin halving is still about a year away, quite possibly. Simply due to multiple bitcoin/crypto news sites releasing articles about the anticipation of the halving next year hence hyping bitcoin up, but people are also speculating other reasons like the trade war and such. There's really no way for us to know what exactly caused the price rise.

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Quote from: LimLims on June 23, 2019, 09:35:10 AM

Quote from: DustyRah on June 22, 2019, 01:41:09 PM

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

I can say that,
You are partially wrong and partially correct.
The part in which you are correct that, LTC will rise, it will.
But you are wrong that Btc will rise next year, as of now i can see that BTC is increasing at present.
And maybe for this , the prices of the other coins are also increasing.
Hope this helps you.

Litecoin is the original shitcoin, hardly anyone outside of crypto has heard of it or gaf about it. Bitcoin has by far the best chance with mainstream success, if you think the price won't rise the year of it's halving you are a real idiot.

Not sure what the trigger for this rise is, but I think that the longer it stays above $10k the shorter the correction will be if/when it happens. I do expect a big litecoin dump in August, and that will probably result in a dump in the whole crypto market.

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Quote from: DustyRah on June 22, 2019, 01:41:09 PM

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

I can say that,
You are partially wrong and partially correct.
The part in which you are correct that, LTC will rise, it will.
But you are wrong that Btc will rise next year, as of now i can see that BTC is increasing at present.
And maybe for this , the prices of the other coins are also increasing.
Hope this helps you.

BitHodler

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Quote from: peter0425 on June 22, 2019, 04:52:43 PM

Are you saying that people have started to accumulate bitcoin prior the the halving? If that is the case if might be the true reason for the sudden surge. However, the price increase doing look good and the pump should have expected after the block halving and not before, in my opinion.

People tend to front run events, especially when they are guaranteed to play out, and the block halving fits in that category. From there it's pretty easy to assume that people are buying up Bitcoin to sell the event.

Selling the event doesn't mean we won't go up after the block halving anymore, which we will, but the price increase in the run-up to the block halving is so extreme that it has the cut in rewards calculated in by ~200% already.

This is obviously leveraging the charts of the past, but it so far has been quite a reliable indicator. Cycles don't exactly repeat, but they tend to rhyme in the crypto world, which is more than enough for me to take it serious.

pooya87

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historically the rises that happened in the past because of bitcoin halving has only happened about 1 or 2 months before the halving and anything else before that is just the same rises that we have all year long without being directly connected to halving. so no this rise has nothing to do with bitcoin halving which is going to take place in nearly a year from now. and litecoin halving has nothing to do with bitcoin even if people talk about bitcoin at the same time.

Mahanton

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Quote from: DustyRah on June 22, 2019, 01:41:09 PM

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

Possible but its still far away but the market is already moving as it should be just like before when we do reaching up the Halving event.If it does then its better
to accumulate more bitcoins as much as we can but still it do needs risk management with your funds because we wont know on what would happen next.

peter0425

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Are you saying that people have started to accumulate bitcoin prior the the halving? If that is the case if might be the true reason for the sudden surge. However, the price increase doing look good and the pump should have expected after the block halving and not before, in my opinion.

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Quote from: LeGaulois on June 22, 2019, 03:46:26 PM

When you compare previous charts, you can see the Bitcoin value increased AFTER the halving, in a period of several months. If you make a forecast following the previous halvings, you can see the BTC between $80,000 to $100,000 and the crash we got is 'normal'
Too soon right now to say Bitcoin halving is the reason. This rise started on April 1 for nothing we're not aware of

Yes, this rise can't be predicted by looking at previous charts, it has no precident 1 year before halving. Something else is going on, the most likely is that people are getting smarter and investing earlier. I expect a more steady climb up with a less drastic bear market drop over the next few years compared to the last few years.
Or maybe I'm just full of shit and there is a reason for this rise that I don't know.

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When you compare previous charts, you can see the Bitcoin value increased AFTER the halving, in a period of several months. If you make a forecast following the previous halvings, you can see the BTC between $80,000 to $100,000 and the crash we got is 'normal'
Too soon right now to say Bitcoin halving is the reason. This rise started on April 1 for nothing we're not aware of

WinslowIII

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Quote from: exstasie on June 22, 2019, 02:39:37 PM

Quote from: WinslowIII on June 22, 2019, 02:35:35 PM

Such nonsense. One bitcoin has 100 million satoshies - even the poorest of poor will be able to use and benefit from bitcoin for the forseeable future. Will a poor person be able to obtain a single bitcoin? absolutely not, a single bitcoin is out of reach of billions as I type this.

It's incredible how quickly owning just 1 BTC is becoming unattainable for most people. What a time to be alive, and to have had the opportunity to get in near the ground floor! Still kicking myself for being bearish in 2015 and not buying all I could. Live and learn!

Yeah, I don't know how many people in the world who have an extra $10k to invest in what is still perceived as a gamble by the average person, but the % is small. So many people living paycheck to paycheck, and that's among the most developed countries.
If someone has acquired 1 bitcoin it makes no sense to sell unless you have to. Sit on it until you are a millionaire is my advice.

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Quote from: WinslowIII on June 22, 2019, 02:35:35 PM

Such nonsense. One bitcoin has 100 million satoshies - even the poorest of poor will be able to use and benefit from bitcoin for the forseeable future. Will a poor person be able to obtain a single bitcoin? absolutely not, a single bitcoin is out of reach of billions as I type this.

It's incredible how quickly owning just 1 BTC is becoming unattainable for most people. What a time to be alive, and to have had the opportunity to get in near the ground floor! Still kicking myself for being bearish in 2015 and not buying all I could. Live and learn!

DebitMe

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Not yet, the price will rise eventually due to the halving, but historically it has always been after the halving, and in the case of the last one, took over a year to happen. So we will see rockets eventially from that as well.

WinslowIII

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Quote from: omonuyak on June 22, 2019, 02:03:45 PM

Quote from: DustyRah on June 22, 2019, 01:41:09 PM

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

I think bitcoin is becoming something that poor people may not be able to use it in future based on the way things are going. If we are having halving in 2020 and the market has started to react to that now that we are in 2019 it means by 2020 June bitcoin may be above $100,000. I am hearing about this reduction in supply of bitcoin by 2024 and that is going to create scarcity and bitcoin may be more than $1,000,000 then.

Such nonsense. One bitcoin has 100 million satoshies - even the poorest of poor will be able to use and benefit from bitcoin for the forseeable future. Will a poor person be able to obtain a single bitcoin? absolutely not, a single bitcoin is out of reach of billions as I type this.

exstasie

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Quote from: DustyRah on June 22, 2019, 01:41:09 PM

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

Halving hype is definitely a thing. The market usually front runs the event and pumps before it happens. The recent LTC/BTC bull run is no exception.

I'm not sure if it'll mean a new ATH or not by that time. In the 2012 and 2016 halving pumps, the market topped out at 50-70% of the previous ATH. It might go higher sooner this time given how strong this bull run is, and how far away the halving still is.

Or, maybe this rally will end in a blow-off top soon and we'll range downwards for the next several months. Then the old model is still possible.

omonuyak

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Quote from: DustyRah on June 22, 2019, 01:41:09 PM

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

I think bitcoin is becoming something that poor people may not be able to use it in future based on the way things are going. If we are having halving in 2020 and the market has started to react to that now that we are in 2019 it means by 2020 June bitcoin may be above $100,000. I am hearing about this reduction in supply of bitcoin by 2024 and that is going to create scarcity and bitcoin may be more than $1,000,000 then.

DustyRah

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So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

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