Topic: Is the US default a reality? (Read 568 times)

The only reason all these countries are still transacting with USD is because they literally have no other choice - except for European countries I guess, they can just use Euros and get away with it.

Literally bringing a new world currency into the mix such as bitcoin threatens the existing order, and that's why everyone who is US-aligned are hostile to most "challenging" currencies that are not the dollar. (Interestingly, BRICS-aligned countries are also hostile to Bitcoin, but that is only because they want to prop up the BRICS currency.)

I'm sure the US economy is still strong and doesn't worry me even if I keep assets in USD, as the world's economic and political ruler, of course the USA will try to protect the USD, even when there are many countries that don't have diplomatic relations with the USA but they still trust and transact with USD.

Due to the global dollar crisis, inflation-like events are becoming frequent in various countries. And this phenomenon may increase further in future more inflationary phenomenon may increase in different countries. Inflation is being warned in advance in various countries around the world so that people can deal with inflation but many people are still not paying much attention to this issue. I have seen such cases before, before the emergence of the coronavirus, everyone was warned in different ways about the corona virus, but no one paid attention to this warning, as a result of which a large number of people in the world died due to this virus. 
So we cannot make this same mistake again. We need to be aware of this in advance and we need to plan how we will live our lives during inflation.

What's so surprising? There will be no default, not for the foreseeable decades. there is no real reason for it. there is hysteria, there is manipulation, there is "issue resolution", but there will be no real US default, neither on domestic debt, much less foreign debt.
It is more interesting to watch the reaction of the world's pariahs, who are jumping for joy, promising "well now, the U.S. is definitely finished.  Nothing happens, and all these hysterics stick their "tongue up their ass" and keep quiet until the next hysterics

Well, enough time has already passed with information about the possible. default, as we see, there are no changes.

It was obvious that the default was just a political game. This game was also played by the stock market sharks, who panicked and bought the stocks they needed on the cheap. Once again the truth was confirmed - if you want to make money in the market, you should not give in to panic, otherwise you can just lose money.

I would have guessed that even though China is the biggest holder of USA debt, they would not dare to sell it all and affect very deeply the economy. Because, in the end, as far as I understand. China's biggest economical buyer and partner continues to be the United States of America. Sure, they may be strategically trying to find new business points around the world, but they cannot replace the volume of exportation and importation kept with USA yet.

China and USA kind of need each other, and has been that way for a while now.

You should not think that the US default story is over, it is just beginning. China is the largest holder of US debt after Japan and is gradually reducing its share. The Middle East is also systematically reducing investment in US debt, and increasing investment in US debt, mainly the countries of the Big Seven, which themselves are in debt as if in silks. The exit of Chinese, Arab and Russian money from the US debt will spur inflation in the dollar zone, so the key rate is already high and will remain high, the next four trillion the US government will have to borrow at a high percentage of junk corporate bonds. And the first trillion should be borrowed urgently right now.

yes, it's too late to run somewhere and it's pointless, if there is a default, we will not affect it in any way.

I will not argue, it is pointless, you assess the situation based on the expectation of a default, and you will not accept the arguments. I will write only one thing - NOTHING WILL HAPPEN

And I will answer your answers:
1-3. There is no default and never will be. Now the whole world is preparing for a recession and another global crisis. ALL countries have problems, not the US and the dollar. And that's okay!
2. The seizure of power in the US, especially by "creditors", is a very good joke Are we talking about internal debt? About the outside? Well, try to describe the scenario of "seizure" of power. Halfway through, you yourself will understand the problem of this fantasy.

the specific actions you should take will depend on your individual circumstances, risk tolerance, and the details of the situation at hand. It is essential to carefully analyze the situation, seek reliable information, and make informed decisions rather than making knee-jerk reactions based on rumors or fear.

So I think they have so much money from different patron countries that default is impossible. They can easily do this to distract from other topics, say unemployment.

Considering how a bill to raise the debt ceiling for two years (?!) is inside the House right now for voting, and the slingshots being fired around by conservatives to try to change it at the last minute, I'm not quite sure what outcome to make out of this situation, but I wouldn't be surprised if at this rate of procrastination and "avoidance tactics", they end up defaulting on their loans.

The debt increases the amount of money that needs to be printed. At the time of default, drastic and unconstitutional measures to decrease inflation and monetary supply are taken. Including impositions on the people, and on trade. Yes, people will always look at the debt and say "wow"...rightfully so. However it becomes a much more important topic when a default is on the table.


Not true. It is at a detrimental point now where default is truly on the cards and the creditors of the United States are in a position of power to take over the country. This is much different to the past, and in 2 years it will be a much different debate to today.


Not true. The dollar will continue to devalue from monetary policy, yes. However, this will not solve its problems forever. If so, then why would anyone be worrying? I think it would be unwise to believe that raising the debt limit will be raised every 2 years from now.

In real:
- For 2 Years, the topic "look at what debt they have" - leaves the stage, and becomes of no interest to anyone
- In two years, in the worst case, it will simply repeat itself with the same decision. Everyone will watch a great show, someone will raise a populist war, but that's it
- In 2 years, the US economy can really adapt and solve the problem of growing debt. If not, they will print more money, and again the problem will be solved. This is not even a problem, it is most likely to be attributed to the "features" of the US economy.

I'm already expecting to read some statements like this. Although it is indeed hard to imagine that USA, a powerful country, will undergo such default but being a large country with lots of allies and creditors will certainly not help them prevent it from happening or at least cannot help the USA in this instance. Since the USA reached its debt-ceiling, I think it is already safe to assume the likelihood of having a default due to their present situation plus there's the move from China and Russia of using the Chinese Yuan in purchasing Petrol which could put some fuel to the fire in-relation of the current situation of the USA.

For now....
The limit has only been increased for up to 2 years and it came with the goal of "reduced government spending". In the meantime, the Fed will continue to conduct "quantitative easing" over the coming years and it will flood the US money supply. In the meantime, politicians will prepare for the default. When a plan is in place (that will most likely NOT benefit the people of the U.S) then they will default. The country will be in the hands of the Fed. The whole country will work like a bank, and the currency will be like credits in a game. A sad game of a grey life for US citizens...while the currency is not usable anywhere else.

I also love this kind of subtle humor
I especially enjoy reading North Korean news, ratings and forecasts!
Before watching or reading, I strongly recommend that you definitely take cold water and sedatives with you - it’s almost impossible to stop and stop laughing! Of course, China is far from them, but some are trying ...

By the way, I highly recommend, after such assessments, to find the previous forecasts of these companies. The funny thing is, I used to think too - it’s unlikely that they will write about dummies in the news, but no, in the context of the articles they indicate, and it seems that these are some really significant companies. And if you look at their history, then they didn’t have and won’t have steeper forecasts than “the water is mostly wet” ...
Moreover, one must take into account the current position, where China has decided to put itself in the place of the second poles of the world, and here any means are good to support itself ...

PS Now I'll go on the fence and publish a rating from the world famous, anti-lich, market company: Gold Brilliance Super Luxury International Economics Morgan Rodschild Murdoch analytical galactic company! In terms of the real value of information, it will be commensurate with China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co


UPD There will be no default, we disperse, dedollarization is over! 

There will be no default in the US. US President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy have reached a preliminary agreement to raise the national debt limit of the country. This will allow the States to avoid default. The agreement was announced by the press service of the White House. They noted that, according to Biden, reaching an agreement will also: reduce costs;
protect critical programs.
Biden and Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy have reached a tentative agreement to end the $31.4 trillion government debt ceiling.
Sources:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-65521190&ved=2ahUKEwjrxNrljJr_AhWDhf0HHVFVAU0Qy58BegQIDhAB&usg=AOvVaw3h7NHr2VdeMys6U4ngLEjN
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://vovworld.vn/ru-RU/%25D0%1202579.vov&ved=2ahUKEwjrxNrljJr_AhWDhf0HHVFVAU0QFnoECBoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0Spg5_LxuwIUG5pkWUG nDZ

one of the American channels suggested that the default would be 05.06 and turned on the timer. Therefore, we will monitor what to expect.

Meanwhile, China's Top Rating Firm Downgrades US in Echo of Global Rivalry

What does this chinese nigga allow himself?

Well, apparently it could have been a technical default, since there were no strong repressions. If there was a real default, then everything would fall down like a house of cards.

In my opinion the risk of default is simply being used as a bargain chip by the Republican Party but in the end, even the most radical anti-spending lawmakers know that a default of the USA would be catastrophic for everyone with stakes on the economical growth of the nation and even worldwide.

My prediction is that in the end the Republican lawmakers will approve the new debt ceiling without condition or the Democrats will go for the plan to mint the 1 Trillion Dollar platinum silver.

They cannot allow such predictable economical reversal to happen.

For me it's easier than you think. Let's try.
1. The US economy and the total power of this state is based on three pillars:
- printing a $100 bill costs the Federal Reserve 17 cents and it's a fucking lucrative business
- "hard power", there are several aircraft carriers with which it is easy to scare the natives from the banana republics
- "soft power", which, through the financing of numerous NGOs, blackmail and bribery of corrupt officials, sows instability, discord and chaos around the world

The scheme worked steadily until the United States believed in itself too much and ran into the wrong guy, namely Russia. After that, something went wrong and over the past year, the share of the dollar in international trade has fallen sharply by 8%, and inflation, which was successfully exported along with tons of hundred-dollar bills to countries with less developed economies and settled there under mattresses in the form of savings, poured back in USA. Now the United States has serious problems that it is not even clear how to solve.

2. It is more convenient for me to formulate conceptual sketches of possible contours of the future world order in my native language, but I think this is not a problem for you.

I think the potential for US default depends on a variety of factors, including political dynamics, fiscal policy, economic conditions, and the willingness of policy makers to address the debt ceiling issue and I'm sure Economists will also warn that not paying debts for a long time can plunged the American economy into a deep recession with soaring unemployment. Does this positively work? If the US fails to pay, it is predicted that Bitcoin will increase by more or less by 68%, I want to know too.

For me, it is incomprehensible how you deny reality, trying to pass off what you want as reality. I am ready here and now to bet that there will be no problems in the USA, regardless of the development of events, regarding the "usual" dilemma of managing the national debt!

And here's what you have in mind regarding "paradigm change" - please, try to be clear, argumentative and with facts. With facts - without fakes, i.e. without links to Russian/pro-Russian resources. Well, if you can, and not just habitually manipulate "in public" with "clever words"?
I will simplify your task, I will help, as usual
1. Arguments that the US economy and the total power of this state have lost their positions
2. Arguments that there is a real alternative?

Good way! As always, I look forward to your interesting explanations!

It is worth reading only proven information channels. Since information chaos is everywhere, one channel has one thing, another has another. You should also read between the lines so that you don't post any nonsense yourself. Default is impossible in such a big country, it's like a barrel, everything will explode.

So the media are catching up with panic, and such a big ship with such an economy if it collapses, then a chain of evo-returns will simply be launched and the markets of this world will be showered. I believe that these headlines are needed to distract attention from other news happening in the world. So that people create even more panic. A distraction to draw attention to simpler problems .

We are getting close.

The Secretary of the Treasury says that June 1 is the date that the U.S. will begin defaulting on debt. That day is only one week away.

Also, note that even if some agreement is reached before June 1, it still may be too late to prevent a default because bureaucracy moves slowly and the government may not be able to start making payments in time.

You somehow manage to scold totalitarianism in an incomprehensible way for me and at the same time you do not see an alternative to the unipolar model of the world with a single leader. The alternative to the world leadership of the bankrupt US is not the leadership of China, or Russia, or India, or Guatemala, or anyone else. This is not about changing the leader within the framework of the previous paradigm, which has long outlived itself and failed again, but about changing the paradigm itself.

ps Debt-ceiling talks stall amid revolt from Kevin McCarthy’s right flank

Absolutely agree about the circus!
Rather, it's even a show for those who have nothing to do and want to play the role of politician/prophet/expert. That's the show!

About "Why do we need such a world order, tied to the internal movements of a separate country with a not quite intelligent elite and a bubble economy?"
I don't agree. The arguments are simple and clear:
1. The elites may or may not seem sane to us, and the economy is a bubble, but.. the US economy and the US state itself - the last decades - the world leader is mostly directed, and there is no alternative in sight yet. Bad democracy is much better than ideal totalitarianism, or some bloodthirsty and really inadequate regime.
2. The world order is not built by the USA, but by the whole world. And it is more convenient for the world. Do you have an alternative? I understand China that way? So this is a totalitarian country, with a lot of debt, and total dependence on technologies from the "bubble economy" The EU - for the most part, adheres to the existing system and world order.

PS Are there any other subjects who could play the role of a new world leader? Seriously?

One thing is sure that they are not going to default especially on this time, they would probably will raise the debt ceiling like the usually happen. In the other hand US is big country with number one in military and economic and default is not their option right now. The Congress might already think about it.

I already wrote once - I was born in the USSR
And this narrative already then climbed out of "all sockets"
What else was left for a country that threw all its forces into militarization and propaganda, but did nothing for the local population. We needed "reasons", and even then they drove it into everyone's heads that:
1. The West is to blame
2. But the West is weak and will soon lose to the "great socialist country"

But as I say, singing mantras that are pleasing to the ears does not change reality. The USSR is no more. This mantra was picked up by everyone who cannot improve their lives, but at least some justification is needed, and some kind of HOPE that since you are bad, the "enemy" will also be bad

Although the image of the enemy is formed for the primitive local population, and the ruling elites are happy to accumulate savings in dollars, live and study in the United States, do business there ... And laugh at their slaves, who blame the "damned West" for everything and wait " the collapse of the United States" Nothing complicated - just manipulation of the consciousness of a not very smart part of the population ...

PS The funny thing is that many lovers of noodles on their ears think that even if the United States declares a technical default, nothing will essentially happen for the United States and its citizens But from countries screaming about the collapse of the United States, life for the population will most likely worsen

If we talk about politics in the U.S., I really find this to be the country with the most chaotic politics, the parties are constantly fighting and using all means to vie for power. The 2020 election riots are an unprecedented shame for the US government. If it continues to use its power in that way, the United States will become more and more divided than is almost certain, and that will be the factor in America's loss of world leadership.

Regarding the US government default, I like everyone else, I don't believe it will happen, what is happening is just a show, and they are scaring the world. If they default, the world economy will also end.

Treasury confirms U.S. default as early as June 1 without debt ceiling hike

How Wall Street is preparing for possible US debt default

upd:

In general, the story of raising the debt ceiling is like a fucking circus. I think few doubt that at the last moment a solution will be found, the world will once again be saved from the collapse of the dollar, everyone will hug, drink champagne and launch fireworks into the sky. Why do we need such a world order, which is tied to the internal movements of a separate country with a not quite sane elite and a bubble economy?

I do agree that there's a psychological magic trick being performed here. Nations and their leaders have been known to employ misdirection, much like a magician uses a flourish to divert the audience's attention from the secret sleight of hand. It's the oldest trick in the book – if the internal situation gets rough, create a common enemy or a looming threat. The "US default" narrative maybe an interesting example of this strategy. This narrative often exaggerates the scale of the US debt issue to the point of impending doom. However, such narratives conveniently ignore the fact that the US dollar serves as the world's reserve currency and the high demand for US Treasury bonds.

Now, I don't want to come off as a jester trivializing a serious matter. Of course, the size of the US debt is significant and warrants close attention. But to frame it as an impending catastrophe often serves as a distraction from more immediate internal issues within nations employing this narrative. It's like obsessing over a distant storm cloud while ignoring the leaking roof directly above. Let's remember to laugh a little at the absurdity of it all, but not forget the essential truth it hides.

Almost all countries in the world today are facing and suffering the effects of inflation, and all of that depends on the skill of the leader of each country. If the leader can show concern for the people under his jurisdiction, for sure he will be able to manage his country correctly and he will know what to do correctly despite facing this inflation rate.

Soft default is a reality, hard default is speculative.   France just soft defaulted on its pension obligations to much protest but that will go ahead as they cannot afford to pay excess costs.
   A soft default is gradual, a reduction in value not agreed but nominally repaid perhaps.  The inflation and failure to retain value in currency is so regular the FED aims for it to be consistent as a target to achieve.   This is a soft default, currencies paper or otherwise are designed to hold value not lose it on purpose.  Hard default would be absolute zero tomorrow, the paper or cotton dollar would only be worth the value of 2nd hand cotton not so much.   In the great depression when they ate the grain, they used the bag as clothes for kids thats the kind of event likely in a default scenario.

I am not much aware of the US economic current problems baseline and I have no idea on which grounds you are talking. Still, it is in my sharing that the US unofficially defaulted due to the collapse of the banking system which is a reality because the US banking system wastes the backbone of the economy but most of the central banks got bankrupt. More news is in the hype that a few will be on the way to bankruptcy which indicates this News to be true. You can say that the US technically defaults if the news is legit but they haven't declared it yet, and they will not declare it in the near future as well this is my opinion on it because it is absolutely an alternative way they are gonna prefer to save the economy.


The logic seems to be acceptable, lest wait and watch the scenario.

The "US default", like the mantra "look at the domestic debt of the USA" is a CLASSIC attempt to divert the attention of their peoples from their real problems (almost hopeless). There is such a technology - to shift attention, by describing a negative scenario for the development of the situation with the "enemy".
And rogue countries are trying to use this long-obsolete technology to only divert attention from the pressing problems of their system, economy and other problems. "We need an external enemy. And our invented victories" - this is the technology for managing a disenfranchised society!

The economy of the United States is a highly developed country with a mixed economy. There will be no US default, they can adapt to any situation. The central role of the US dollar in the global economy despite the waning of US political and strategic control on the international stage, the dollar has once again asserted itself as a more durable currency than previously thought. The central bank has also taken supportive steps to maintain the dollar-based monetary system of the Federal Reserve, indicating a longer US controlled financial system.

Biden's recent interview was where he clearly says that he will not allow default to occur. But one bank has already gone down, how will the others behave, I eat more or less large ones. It will be difficult for them to borrow from each other in this vicious circle, except to borrow from ordinary people. Take their deposits temporarily.

If you mean the US default related to the debt ceiling crisis, I don't think there is any fear at the moment, they often save the situation at the last minute.

But in general, The collapse of the US economy means the collapse of the global economy as a whole because the global economy is linked to the US dollar, so the best solution in this case is to resort to saving gold or bitcoin.

I agree with you that the US will not default on its debt, and all this news is nothing but a joke by US politicians. But how can you bring in bitcoin, and just because they own 678,436 BTC, they won't default? The total capitalization of the entire crypto industry is just over 1 trillion dollars, and that number is even smaller than the total capitalization of their companies like Apple or Microsoft. That amount may be huge for 3rd world countries like El-Salvador, but it is nothing compared to the US economy. Even if they hold all 21 million bitcoins, it won't be able to save their economy if it collapses.

It's quite damaging that these debt ceiling negotiations keep coming up every few years because it seems that politics has been increasingly polarizing over the last decade. At some point the political parties will get so far apart and cause so much friction between themselves, that they will fail to negotiate on raising it. This would have massive repercussions to American power around the world if it ever did happen in the fullest sense. As huge amounts of American debt, which is considered one of the most reliable in the world, would suddenly become shaky and potentially cause massive ripples. There have been backup options discussed in the past but they are just sticking plastic measures, like the President issuing a 1 trillion dollar coin to the US treasury/

In my vision, these are all fuds, like, how can a country with the solid economy base on which many other country's economies are dependent? currently, they are facing with the banking crisis, debt ceiling, and many other economic situations but they have faced them in the past too and overcame these problems at that time. Then why now making so much noise out of it? As this is not something new that comes in front of them surprisingly, because it's the result of their actions that they have made and they knew about it, and must be prepared for it.

All I can say is not possible for the US to default as they have a strong economy even if we want to see in the context of acquiring BTC then they have more than 678,436 BTC which worth a lot, and how can a country which has not legalized BTC as legal tender as El-Salvador has done and El-Salvador is decreasing its inflation rate (source) while they have only 2381 BTC.

The point is, the USA has people behind it that can do anything to save their assets and they will come up with any policy to save it.

The US default not only affects many countries, and I would say it will affect the world, the risk of a global economic collapse is very likely. The United States is the country that controls, dominates, and has the greatest influence on the world economy. So once they fall, we will be hit hart.
But the possibility of them defaulting is really very difficult, I do not believe the information spread in the media because politics in the US is so messed up. News is unreliable because the media can be manipulated.

They are the country that holds the world's money printing machine and specializes in exporting inflation to allied nations and the world. How can they default? The drama they created has gone viral for decades rather than just the last few years, it's really nothing new for us to discuss or fear.

I am not a fan of American imperialism, but I also never believed they would default under any circumstances. They will remain the leading country in the world, and our world will still depend on the USD. But I hope that will change soon in the future and there will be another country to take their place.

Interesting calculation. He includes future obligations in social spending to arrive at this figure which seems reasonable as there has been zero indication the U.S. would ever cut back on social security, medicare/medicaid, etc. The problem with U.S. politicians is cuts to social welfare programs are only feasible during second terms of the Presidency. One cannot simply cut entitlement programs and expect to win reelection. The congress has little incentive as well, as each of those politicians are seeking their own reelection campaigns.


Right. My point is mainly that debt default exists only in theory, not practically, which is why I mention that much of this talk of a debt default is attention grabbing for its shock value but has no actual consequences. Raising the debt ceiling just means more borrowing now and in the future. If they elect to "default" by not raising the debt ceiling, nothing changes due to the fact USD is a currency that can be generated. No one actually loses money. They just lose purchasing power as a result of the inflation that results when the U.S. decides to generate more currency units. I suppose the result would be lost confidence in USD. Though for that to happen, one would have to entirely forget previous debt ceiling raises, or that the U.S. has debt to the tune of 30 trillion. It seems as if there is so little confidence in USD, that none more could possibly be lost. I'm amenable to being corrected in this regard, as the bar just gets lower and lower for fiats. Looks to me USD holders are just riding the wave until everyone agrees the gig is up.

The least likely option
Always, the envious of the United States consider only one side. In order not to break your fantasies
If you look at it from all angles, and not selectively, then the picture will be completely different. Yes, the United States has both high domestic and foreign debt. But there are always two sides to a coin... Have you ever considered how much other countries owe the United States? And try it. And you will understand that the US debt is "a couple of kopecks."
So if we talk about the possibility of a US default, we must talk about a global default, when all market participants will face the dilemma - total bankruptcy ... or ... total mutual cancellation of debts!

For a country like the United States to default is absolutely unrealistic. To continue fulfilling its financial obligations, the United States need only increase the amount of printing of its dollars. After all, their number does not depend either on the gold and foreign exchange reserves of this country, or on other similar factors. And I don’t see big problems with the US economy now. This problem is more contrived.
However, it never hurts to be safe. Therefore, it is better to keep part of your savings in bitcoin or other top coins.

If there is a default, it will affect many countries. News is written in advance, not knowing the subtleties. To say whether it is really impossible, there is very little information. Here they refer to the fact that a large bank has gone bankrupt and the rest may fall too.

Exceeding the debt ceiling is in itself a technical default, to call a spade a spade. It's just that the word is too scary and the US government prefers to call its actions after exceeding the debt ceiling extraordinary measures. The suspension of contributions to state pension funds looks like a default.

Every country is in economic turmoil, no one will go out of their way to save the US. The only savior will be who it is in debt to, the banking sector. Once the banking sector takes over the country, the country will become like a top-down managed business. Everything will be controlled, managed, tightened to be maximal efficiency for their interests, for production, for profit. The livestock (people) will serve no other purpose than to serve the interests of its new god-like leader.

This might sound ridiculous to some, however it is the message in all dystopian novels and films from decades ago til now. That's the fate of the US. How it will effect other countries is yet to be discovered.

This issue happens almost every year. There might be a government shutdown while they work to find a solution how to cut spending but they will raise the debt ceiling and won’t default. A default would create havoc and make things worse.

They already printed money like crazy so why stop now. The 1m yield for US bonds is very high. However it’s not out of the norm like with a 10-20% yield which would mean there is a huge possibility of a default. Hence why I don’t think there will be a default.

I think it's all a show for the gallery, like so many other times.


So in reality your buddy has been working in banking since Nixon's default in 1971 ending the convertibility of the dollar into gold. It is a default that does not want to be recognized as such, but it was, going from a system that was only partially based on faith to a fiat system, which is based entirely on faith.

Its bullshit but politics are very polarized in USA 🇺🇸 so the dems and the reps have the power to do it.

Frankly if they do it they should be tried for treason but that will never happened.

I have watched and lived US politics for 60 years. I remember the Cuba crisis in 61-62

and a ton of shit since then.  USA pollies are greedy motherfuckers. So I do not think they have the will to crash and burn 🔥 the system.

I have a buddy that has been in banking since 1970 he says a deal will be cut no later than Monday.

The probability of the US defaulting may not be high, but the risk is there. The commotion that is currently happening is an ordinary political problem because the house of representatives is held by Republicans while the government is Democrats, of course they don't want to submit to the government so easily, they will definitely fight to be able to fight against the Biden government, but of course this problem will not lead to default to the US, it is certain that the government and the opposition will find common ground regarding this issue. It is possible that the Biden government will cut their spending budget so as not to cross the debt ceiling or the house of representatives may agree to increase the debt ceiling, but that chance seems quite small.

I just wont to say The possibility of a US default is a matter of speculation and prediction but,  a US Default will have far-reaching consequences for the global economy. What I'm focus on here is the ability of the US government to work in maintaining the stability and credibility of its financial system.

I think it really depends on the trust and confidence of investors and international markets. If not, there will be doubts about the ability of the US government to manage its debt, it can cause loss of confidence, market volatility and trigger inflationary pressures and economic downturn.

While it's true that any country that prints its own currency can avoid default by printing more currency, the U.S. can still default on its debt by choosing (through inaction) not to avoid default.



In sounds like you are saying that the U.S. is in default because it has exceeded its debt limit. That is not true. The debt limit itself is not a condition of default. The reason it is a factor is that the U.S. spends more than it takes in, so it must go deeper into debt in order to pay its current debts, and it cannot because of the self-imposed debt limit.

It seems you are not well informed about the current state of affairs. The US debt ceiling is $31.4 trillion, and the US external debt is already over $31.7 trillion. The debt ceiling was exceeded on January 19 of this year and, strictly speaking, a technical default has already happened. So the answer to the question in the thread title is yes. It's up to you to panic or not.

Obviously there is no such thing as an actual default because eventually you owe everything to Fed or the Central Bank of the country. But yes practical default as you say is extreme inflation. But honestly that situation is far far away as of now. A extremely bad inflation for any country is like around 30-40% CPI level even that is recoverable in many circumstances. As of now we aren't in that scenario this sort of inflation which we have in US is pretty normal for any developing nation.

Although I don't think it's just propaganda, I also don't support the default. Money printing and raising the debt ceiling are always risky, and something needs to be done about it. Unless there is a perceived serious threat, things often remain unchanged. Therefore, I believe that the default rhetoric is intended to focus on this significant issue that unites citizens and their political representatives, pushing for greater financial transparency from the government and ending the reliance on borrowing more money (even though in this particular circumstance it may be the quickest or only solution). Even if they are toying with fire, the US will be alright.

There are so many different ways to avoid default in the US.... 

First, the US government owns several trillion US dollars of valuable property.  First of all, these are land plots.  These land plots can be pledged, bonds can be issued against this security and the money necessary to pay off the debt can be received. 

Secondly, you can use an even more non-standard solution - the Fed can issue a banknote with a face value of 1 trillion US dollars and transfer it under a loan agreement to the US government.  Formally, this is possible. 

Do not forget that the US economy is the strongest in the world, and a possible default is just a formality.

I think this is just the media exaggerating and sensationalizing events for dramatic effect on viewers and readers. As you know, the United States has led the economy for the past few decades. So it is very unlikely that the United States will break me. Even if the USA is about to reach the ceiling, those things haven't happened yet, have they? Therefore, we should still remain calm rather than panic, because panic will make it very easy to be manipulated by people. In general, it is still necessary to continue to follow the news every day, and in addition, it is also necessary to have a reasonable approach.

In general, you are right. The problem with US debts has become much worse not so much because of another excess of the debt ceiling, but because, against the backdrop of an increase in the key rate, even simply servicing debts has become too expensive. Plus, the debt problem can be compared to an iceberg, only a small part of which is on the surface. According to economists at AB Bernstein, in 2019 the total US debt burden was 1832% of nominal GDP. Since then, the situation has deteriorated markedly.

It's political theatre, every time. There is no penalty for the U.S. to raise the debt ceiling, and whoever's in office faces the brunt of the political theatrics in order for the other side to try and get their political victories.

A country that prints its own currency can't default on its debt, they would simply print more currency units if required. That's been the general practice since the gold standard was done away with, except debt's been exponentially rising over the last few decades because the U.S. created a hole that they can't escape. The interest on the debt alone will consume them, requiring even more borrowing.

 Nope. The US, however it may look to most people out there (even to me, I feel like they've fallen from grace and has become a shell of its previous glorious state), there's no way in hell that legislators in the country would allow itself to default from debt. As what @Husires has told you in his post, it's all political issues really, and barely economical, because for the most part the reason why there's no movement in the part of deciding whether to increase the debt ceiling or not is because legislators and politicians couldn't decide at the moment on what the best path to take is. Eventually they come and will come into a solution, that's always been the case for US anyway. The US will not default on its debt, financial crash would be delayed another time, and all that kind of stuff.

I don't really get why Mccarthy pushing his luck, I mean he can do whatever he wants to, nobody can force him to do anything, but lets be honest and realize that Democrats have enough votes to block him anyway, so he can't get whatever he wants, he can negotiate for a positive voting, which would mean he will ask for cuts, but he can't get the cuts neither all by himself at least. So all in all this would just go on.

Eventually public will ask when he will finally raise it, because otherwise millions of government workers won't get paid and they will know who is responsible for it and they won't enjoy that and republicans will bleed out even more votes and will be in trouble. They are barely standing as it is, doing this would only hurt them.

I don't think it's purely propaganda, but I don't believe in the default either. There's always a risk to money printing and raising the debt ceiling, and something should be done about it. Unless there's a perception of a big threat, things normally don't change. So I think the default rhetoric is meant to big this big issue that unites people and their political representatives, pushing for more financial accountability of the state and stopping to rely on borrowing even more money (even though in this particular situation it may be the fastest or the only way out). The US will be fine, even though they're playing with fire.

I think the rumors are just to bring down crypto developments as it has happened so many times before. well if it is profitable for those who can control the current price of crypto we call whales. it's a good idea to really save on fiat because a big sell-off of crypto assets is imminent. but it will never hinder the development of crypto until now. crypto continues to grow with many trends until now.

I don't remember exactly how many times this rumor happened, but if I'm not mistaken, it's been a topic for years, and I've never seen the US government default. I don't know what is the purpose of American politicians when they make this news every year. But if anyone still believes this will happen, it is naive and you will continue to be led by their media. I'm pretty sure that will never happen until their economy is actually challenged by China or some other great power. For now, that's not going to happen, and you'll keep hearing about it next year.

The possibility of a US default is real only for the Russian and Chinese propaganda.
I'm sure that the Republicans will agree for increasing the debt ceiling, in exchange of something else(I don't know what).
By the way, I watched some banker from JP Morgan being interviewed on CNN and he said that there shouldn't be a debt ceiling at all.
I guess that a part of the US bankers want the USA to have unlimited debt, without any ceilings. I wonder what will happen to the US dollar, when such thing happens.

It is real. The other possibility is also as scary and as real. That's hyperinflation. The US can't forever print money to pay their debts. That's impossible. If you see the history of the Roman Empire, it collapsed the same way. There are only 2 exits from here and both of them leads to a road covered with shit. A) Immediate default, B) Hyperinflation. The debt gets paid either way. We already know which one they are going to choose and that's option B.

I think you forgot the payment deadlines here, as the United States currently has a debt that is overdue, while many countries that borrow from the United States may not want to pay their debt now.
China, for example, all of its trade surplus is used in the form of dollars for nothing but manipulation of the value of yuan in order to promote exports.

I agree with you that the United States has several ways of repayment, so it can, for example, devalue its currency and thus reduce the value of its debts, but there are many catastrophic effects of this decision.
The easiest solution is more debt.

Default simply means that the U.S. does not pay off a bond or make a payment as required according to the contract. Such a default is entirely possible and there are legal and economic ramifications.

The possibility of a default is already having an effect.  In 2011, the U.S. credit rating was downgraded due to a similar possibility of default. It is likely to be downgraded again this time, even if there is no default.
 
If there is a default and it is brief, and payments are delayed maybe only a few days, then I believe that the immediate impact will be relatively small, though it will cause more severe problems down the road.

However, if the default drags out, it could cause severe economic problems even if the debts are eventually repaid. For example, U.S. bonds are treated globally like cash. Large payments are made using bonds instead of dollars. If U.S. bonds suddenly lose all value because they can't be redeemed, even temporarily, these payments can't be made and global commerce will grind to a halt.

Default is not possible. This is done for information agitation. In the past year, some countries were defaulted, as a result, it was of a technical nature. Nothing has changed in these countries at a critical level . And default is the same inflation that almost the whole world is in now.

what people dont realise is although US "owes" other countries $30trillion+
other countries "owe" the us substantial amounts too

an easy option is 1-for-1 cancelation of linked debts between countries

EG if japan hold $1.1trill of US debt. but japan has more then $1trill separately owed TO the us.. they can cencel each others debt thus bring both sides debt totals down

take it one stage further
if japans high DEBT amount of $10trill is owed to multiple countries. the US can do a deal where if the UK cancels its debt with japan. the UK can cancel its loan to the US.
and the US can then further cancel its loan to japan. as a 3 way debt reduction

I adhere to the fact that your answer is correct. It is impossible for such a large country to fall into default. There may be some speculation and markets and inflation, but not default.

This is not accurate. Under the Marshall Plan, the United States subsidized the economies of war-torn nations in Europe and Japan in the form of cash in exchange for a commitment that every dollar abroad could be converted into gold at $35 an ounce. This was possible with the huge reserves of gold that the United States possessed. .

With the recovery of Germany and Japan and the increasing public debt from the Vietnam War and the rise in inflation, this led to a decrease in the value of the dollar against the gold that the United States owned, and with the need to print more dollars, maintaining the price of $ 35 an ounce was impossible, and here came the shock of Nixon with Executive Order No. 11615 in 15 August 1971 without taking any approval from the countries holding the dollar.

Did the US default here? No, global growth has recovered after this shock and the subsequent oil crises, and the petrodollar has become the new benchmark.

In any case, when the economic conditions are bad, the United States always finds a way to pay its debts, and with the exposure of most of the world's economies to the dollar and the existence of a global monetary reserve from it, it is impossible for the United States to default on its debts as it has never done before.

Default in such a large country is impossible, it has many allies and creditors who will help prevent this. A lot of things revolve around the United States, and such a default takes place only if it is, as you wrote, technical. In fact, it doesn't mean anything and it doesn't make sense to move from place to place and so on.

Headlines screaming US teetering on the financial cliff? Drama, folks, pure drama! Media loves a show. Could Uncle Sam default? In theory, sure. But in reality? That's another kettle of fish. Imagine the US economy as a mega ship – it might get a bit wet, but sinking? Not without a fight! And a US default? It'd send shockwaves worldwide, something the big shots would dodge like a bullet. So, should you be racing to the bank, ready to snatch all your dough? Doubt it. Spread your bets, keep an eagle eye on the economic pulse, and don't let the media circus spook you. Remember, panic is the worst money manager ever!

The usa as far as I am aware has defaulted twice prior.   During Woodrow Wilsons presidency and when the usa came off the gold standard.   

I think you are referring to the US default on its debt, which is linked to the debt ceiling crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling, whose solution is political, not economic. So, will the US default on its debt? Absolutely not, because this is how the global banking system works.
Politicians will continue to argue until the last moment, and after making some concessions from one of the parties to avoid political damage, an agreement will be reached and the debt ceiling will be raised. Therefore, do not worry, even if the markets did not calculate any possibility of the United States falling behind, otherwise we would see strong corrections in stocks.

The pace of raising the debt ceiling is terrifying, and perhaps after 10 years we will see a real danger of continuous raising operations.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

It's good to know that the USD has never defaulted on its debt but hit the debt ceiling on 19th January of this year. This has raised concerns, speculations and debates amongst experts and the key people involved in the US government, including the House and Senate. I know the country is filled with knowledgeable people, and a very good decision would be reached before it would cause a default. The default would cause chaos in the US as the government would not be able to fulfil its basic obligations and this would cause a chain reaction to the detriment of the country.

The debt ceiling should have been reviewed long years ago since the US population now and the government's obligations have increased compared to when the agreement was reached. However, this will not cause panic to the extent that people will now be leaving the US.

Sure, it will affect them, but it's the government and its workers that will be directly affected. While those that rely on the government for tax returns will also be affected. Be it businesses, families or individuals.

Now all the news is writing about a possible default, is it real in the modern world, or is it information propaganda? How do you feel about this situation and what will happen for the rest of the world, you should be afraid of inflation or subsidence of the entire market. how to act in this situation and not lose money? It is worth now to run to withdraw money from the account or change it to the currency of other states. What kind of alignment awaits and what to analyze in general. Perhaps the extreme situation is a technical default, which does not pose a particular threat, but you need to prepare for non-standard options for the development of events.