Topic: Is the US economy in recession? (Read 649 times)

Let me explain everything better
1. The topic about the petrodollar, I like it too
I always ask the question - is it impossible to sell oil for another currency? For some reason they don’t give an answer, or they tell all sorts of fairy tales. Because the answer is - IT IS POSSIBLE, but no one needs it
The dollarization of the world did not occur because of some kind of oil-market relations, but because a lot of changes took place after the Second World War. Both political and economic. And all over the world. The world needed to find some kind of universal, fairly stable, massively recognized means of mutual settlements and valuation. The only option at that time was the US dollar. Other countries either lay in ruins or did not realize this possibility. In a word - let's forget the fairy tale about the petrodollar!
2. “So countries like Russia, China, India and others have carved out a new niche. But when they wanted to exchange their rupees and yuan for high roller dollars, the high rollers were not very enthusiastic. The age-old adage “no exchanges” was used. It was like waiting for a feast at a herbivore's house, only to get an exquisite set of greens." - Yes, that's exactly what happened - India and China are simply tearing Russia apart, buying everything for a penny. It's like the game of the ancient conquerors of America - they gave the local population worthless glass beads, in return they got gold, just like now China and India give Russia beautiful multi-colored yuan and rupees, take away everything that is still possible to take from Russia, and smile sweetly, calling themselves friends and partners

Here we stand, ensnared in a tangible round of the grand old game of Monopoly, with the big leaguers contemplating a "From Dollars to Something Else" stratagem! But allow us to hit the pause button and take a trip down memory lane to grasp the full scope. The Petrodollar play has been on the board for some time. Several nations attempted a plot twist by distancing themselves from the dollar system. But lo and behold, the dollar is like that perennially over-performing student - omnipresent! And just like in the schoolyard, not everyone is keen on swapping their prized possessions for your DIY denomination.

So, nations like Russia, China, India, and others started a new niche. But when they wanted to exchange their rupees and yuan for the high rollers' dollars, the high rollers were rather unenthusiastic. The age-old adage of "no tradebacks" was invoked. It was like anticipating a feast at a herbivore's home, only to be served an elaborate array of greens.

So yes, the so-called "alternative" currencies aren't exactly flourishing in the playground of world economics.

The USA is the world's strongest economy, and it can be said that the US economy dominates the world. If there is a problem with the US economy, it is certain that other countries' economies will also have problems. Of course, we still remember the economic recession that occurred in the USA in 2008, when the economic conditions in many countries also experienced difficulties and recession.

yes, i saw USD inflation is not good. it will make price more expensive so people stop buying some stuff so it will be a problem for people who are in business.
ROI is going down, the unemployment rate rises while the price is going up. several companies failed to pay debts and and several companies went bankrupt.

The whole global economy is in the road to a long term recession because the graph proves that almost every country is hit by inflation and reoccurring inflation gives birth to recession.
But talking about USA, for now they are not on recession unless a link is shown me where the opposite is said. For recession to hit a stable economy like USA, it therefore countries like my own (Nigeria) should be roasting in recession. Even if USA is into recession it will take them lesser time to escape than many other countries.

Well, about to be in a recession, but is staunched by a lot of stuff including the recent increase in the US debt ceiling which is something that is highly needed in order to fend off the impending recession. But thus far, it must be noted that almost all efforts made by the country is all just band-aid resolutions meant to stop the inflation for the meantime, and until two years from now increase in debt ceiling will definitely work its charm but after that, we might have to face the music.

This recession's been a long time coming with US belligerently misusing its funds during the height of the COVID pandemic, plus other stuff that's been bugging them for the last 10 years. All of this contributed to an already hard to counter situation, and it's only time that will tell if the US will be able to really fend this off for good, or a recession is to come.

Recession is going on all over the world, in some countries it is less and in some countries it is more. If I say from my opinion then I will say yes USA can fall into financial recession. And the reason for this is that many states are now moving away from their circle. However, a large part of Europe is on their side, and many countries in Asia are also in their circle, but many of these countries are now bordering Russia and China. And as a result of this their power has now started to weaken. And in view of this it can be said that in the future they may have economic recession

I don't think anyone would allow the U.S. economy to slip into recession. Yes, they talk about it all the time, but the purpose of this is to manipulate the market and redistribute property (people scared of a supposed recession are selling a lot for next to nothing, but that's their choice).

When you tell such fabulous stories, don't forget to give real facts about how this "alternative" actually looks like
Let's look at the reality: after sanctions and an embargo on the supply of hydrocarbons were imposed against the country of the terrorist, the "friends of Russia" - India and China - immediately became active. And it was they who suggested - "let's de-dollarize the market, to spite the United States, and we will sell everything for our currencies, and they are better than the dollar, really!" And Russia began to sell gas, and primarily oil, to India and China, for Indian rupees and Chinese yuan. And they sold a lot of oil, with huge discounts! Before this stage, except for the "penny prices" for which Russia sells oil to these "friends", everything was going well.
But when Russia decided to exchange rupees and yuan for dollars, which Russia "needs like air", it turned out ... That they cannot be exchanged for dollars! And no one sells sanctioned goods for rupees and yuan. Well, or buy low-quality "copies" of sanctioned goods and technologies from India and China

I think it was a "perfect plan"

Kids know the economic definition of recession, but as a citizen, all that matters to me is not the definition of recession, but rather the impact of recession, which appears in people losing their jobs, lack of spending and families trying to rationalize in the hope of achieving a net economic profit until the individual finds a job.
Citizens do not feel the slight, phased and controlled inflation, which does not affect their jobs to the extent that causes citizens to panic or stop the economy. Deep inflation is what causes problems for individuals, and that panic may have greater effects than inflation. United States is aware of the seriousness of inflation and as long as the economy is predictable. Even if it happened, the results would not be catastrophic.

I think from the time being US economy is currently not in a recession, though it experience a down trend last 2020 due to pandemic. Usually a recession happens when there is a decline in economic activities that could last for several months and if there are decrease in the gross domestic product, employment and the others. Recession could have significant impacts on individuals and businesses., including job losses and decreased in  spending. So i think the recession is not occurring for the meantime in the US.

I think people can easily see problems such as the decrease in production and sales of businesses, the purchasing power of consumers, as well as the interest rate and decrease in investment,... to know that cause of the economic downturn. While assessing a recession accurately, it is necessary to consider medium and long-term economic developments, the influence of internal and external factors, and market fluctuations. Methods to quantify a recession include tracking the movements of key economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, industrial output, and trade. Information on economic activity, sales of goods and services and consumption indicators is also another predictor of economic activity.

I'm just asking does the U.S have a gold back-up? As far as I know there is none, besides that the U.S. is deeply in debt right now. And what I also know is that its debt is worth 31T$, and it looks like it's running out.

       We don't know if the U.S. will default or not, either of these two today until tomorrow we will know if the value of bitcoin will rise or fall down? When bitcoin goes down, it's probably because of the recession, maybe, this is just my opinion.

Latest debt of US - https://www.pgpf.org/national-debt-clock?

I think the US economy is still strong and stable, if there is a recession the central bank will immediately resolve it, of course we know that if there is a problem with the USA it will have a global impact because many countries make the USA their economic standard and many owe it to the USA.

Regarding whether the US economy is in recession, we must refer once again to existing economic data, whether there has been the latest posted data update from related parties, even though previously the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth has shown consecutive negative numbers as you said. I think that even though the US is in a recession, the economists are also thinking hard about reducing this impact so that there is no significant decline in overall economic activity.

To measure a recession, there are core elements to consider. One is to evaluate negative GDP growth in two consecutive quarters. However, this is not the only factor used in recession assessments. Other factors include changes in the unemployment rate, business investment, private consumption, and other economic indicators.

If I'm not mistaken Recession is generally defined as a significant reduction in economic activity, usually measured by a decrease in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters. However, if you look at other very complex economic indicators, such as declining employment, industrial production, and consumer spending, they are also considered when assessing the state of the economy.

To measure a recession, economists usually look at a variety of indicators, including GDP, employment rates, industrial production and consumer spending. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is responsible for announcing the start and end of a recession in the United States. NBER uses a variety of data sources and economic indicators to determine the duration and severity of recessions.

U.S. economy? Massive! But hold on a second. A pandemic? The inequity of our system is shown in a glaring light. They all got rich, but what about the others? Major difficulties.

Individuals must take precedence over corporations. Healthcare, education, and welfare are not privileges that should be reserved for the fortunate few. Chinese technology used in the United States? That's fantastic, but don't neglect Mother Nature or the hardworking people who inhabit it.

We require a sustainable and equitable system. A world that does not favor the wealthy above everyone else. We need to switch things up and try something new.

Mainly due to the decrease in the growth rate of the United States, the overall world economy will deteriorate. These countries are the main export destinations of developing countries. For that reason, if the economy of these regions loses momentum, the growth of developing countries will also slow down. The plight of the global economy has been blamed on high inflation as food and fuel prices around the world rose last year due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Political reasons have reduced the Western world's dependence on Russia's fossil fuels.

I think that if the housing market finally crashes in the US, we might be able to call it a recession, there's a decline in GDP, consumer spending, the impending abandonment of USD as reserve currency by BRICS and then the credits are already tightening, US is on the verge of an economic recession if they're not already there.

So, has the National Economic Research Bureau (NBER) recently announced the latest recession in the US? Because the latest news from them really needs to be known in order to see how far the recession level has arisen there. After all, it is really related to the economy so that each country can be very prepared for a recession when it starts happening in its own territory.

Meanwhile, US sovereign credit default swaps are flying to the moon. Shutdown is coming.

The economic recession is common on all countries based on their economic Capacity. Because United States have enough funds to back up, the won't come to the economy recession.Maybe the GDP of the US may be get a false input and output may be skipped on the real new. The news which he shared, and economy advisor had gain a lot for us. They will reduce the economy burden by skipping the unwanted expenditure by the country.With my knowledge, the US doesn't affect by any Economic crises.They also allow the college students loan wavier with minimum wavier of 10,000 dollars for all eligible.

I think theoretical definition of recession is this only whatever you said but practically it's not necessary that all the symptoms of a recession will be visible in this scenario. Chances are that only a few signs might be visible or chances are no signs might be visible in a lot of sectors. Sometimes even stock markets also don't resonate to this because eventually stock market also take in consideration future aspirations which might appeal good. So recession is honestly a set of too many vague scenarios.

Consequences of excessive money printing and disunity in world politics. The American economy thrives on blatant wars and resource plunder. Pedro dollar is one of the forms of robbery. All countries that want to buy oil must use dollars. That is the absurdity that the world must accept. That inflationary export helps the Fed issue more currency and is richer than any other institution.
Russia, China, India, some Middle Eastern and Asian countries have agreed to use a currency system other than the dollar to eliminate dependence. This creates a new pole in the world economy.

And another thing is that the opening of China after COVID makes the source of goods more abundant and makes the world economy more comfortable.
The collapse of the US economy was mainly caused by excessive interest rate hikes. The American people are mainly in debt, so the banking system is at risk of illiquidity. People's assets are being squeezed. Businesses also easily fall into bankruptcy.

Excess Money printing may increase inflation, but that alone may not cause recession because higher inflation negatively impact people who have higher savings. Those who doesn't have a large amount of savings are not that much impacted. At this point new jobs are being created in the United State since there is net addition of jobs in the market at this point recession looks unlikely. However the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is a big concern and it can  increase  the chances of recession in the future.

Like everyone after 2019, with the onset of the pandemic, the economy experienced a downturn. There are a lot of reasons - stopping production, death, restrictions .. All this is definitely not for the benefit of the economy and the country as a whole.
Yes, unlike most other countries, the United States has done as much as possible for its population - from a monthly check for each resident, to free food packages on a regular basis for everyone in need. And this by itself left a mark on the economy - inflation.

But the US economy is really the most powerful economy in the world to survive this test.
Plus, geopolitical factors, in a certain sense, helped "uplift the economy." This is the terrorist war in Ukraine unleashed by Russia. Assistance from the United States for Ukraine is enormous. And behind it is the military-industrial complex, which has been idle in recent years. Now there are orders, there are jobs, there are jobs for related suppliers. And this is taxes and an impetus for the economy.
Technological sector - the migration of high technologies from China has begun, back to the USA, as well as other countries (India for example), where specialists are also needed, and technologies from the USA.

All together gave a really very good picture in the economy

If that money printing creates excess liquidity for those who receive it, then yes. But if money printing isn't fast enough to offset inflation, the people won't have excess liquidity that they could put into crypto. During Covid the inflation hasn't hit right in the moment when it started, but financial support from the government kicked in and did create excess liquidity. This only counts on average of course, not everyone was able to make any investment decisions during the pandemic.

The thing is that the retail market often can't hold onto their Bitcoin for as long as the bigger players. When we see a big recession and people decide to escape into Bitcoin, they might see themselves getting forced into selling it again in order to be able to get by. Inflation is a real problem and devaluing currency through money printing can end up in an unstoppable downward spiral. There are countless examples for it and often I think that people believe this can't happen to seemingly successful Western economies, but of course it can as well.

In the social media we see that US is near a recession, the inflation rates are all time high, the banks in the US are collapsing and the dollar is under severe pressure, but this is what the outside world sees.

One of my relatives lives in the US and when i talked to them, they say that situation is not so much worse as it is being presented. The US still enjoys free education and free medicine, and the common man does not face any issues which we assume sitting outside the US.

I think it will take another decade before we may see the US economy in recession. Right now the economy is strong enough to survive another few years.

Yes I know since everybody expect a recession then there won’t be one however it seems like we will at least get a minor recession and won’t get a soft landing.

However it doesn’t mean that stocks or crypto will crash. Remember when we hit massive unemployment during Covid while the stock market hit new highs. Might be the same story since the fed might have to cut rates and lead to more money printing and it’ll cause stocks to soar higher.

The more they talk about recession, the less likely it is to happen. I think recessions are a scarecrow just to take more assets out of weak hands. There will be a presidential election in the U.S. in November 2024. So it's unlikely that a recession will actually be allowed to happen. But if President Biden's administration finds a way out, it will give Biden extra points in the presidential race.

I think people are confusing recession and inflation, both have a negative effect on the economy of a nation but they are different. Inflation is a rise in prices, which can be translated as the decline of purchasing power over time, as purchasing power drops and people suffer the consequences. A recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. A common rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth mean recession.

The current economic recession is not only faced by Uncle Sam's country or America, but almost all countries are experiencing it. As for countries that will experience an economic recession, they will continue to work hard to reduce inflation in their countries. there are many countries that continue to strive to avoid the economic recession that will befall their country, America for example, according to the recognition of the US finance minister Jannet yallen, inflation in their country has started to decline in the range of 6%, but it is still at a high level compared to their target is 2%. even so, according to the US finance minister economic growth in America has started to appear and the country will avoid an economic recession.

https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20230303100106-4-418558/sri-mulyani-bilang-as-lolos-dari-resesi-2023-ri-gimana

actually many say so, because during the 2020 pandemic, the government printed a lot of money and distributed it to their citizens for not working.
but other theories also say that America is still within reasonable limits.
it depends on who the media is reporting on it.
but for the truth we can see directly the impact on the country by time.

In 2020, the US experienced a significant economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to widespread business closures, job losses, and a sharp decline in GDP. However, by the end of 2020, the economy had shown signs of recovery, and growth continued into 2021, although at a slower pace than before the pandemic.

I think its not going to really happen just yet, that will take a bit of a while. I think the problem would be a bit more about what will happen after July, that could actually make some changes in order to cause it. I need to focus on the fact that inflation could be a lot higher than what it is when that happens and when inflation is higher than what it is right now then recession would not be a problem. I prefer inflation over recession, recession means there is no money when things are still expensive, inflation at least means we are having a problem but also we are making more to cover that difference as well. This is why its not in recession now, but the future may hold a recession in the near future as well, so we need to be careful about it.

I do not think that the US will ever go into recession because I know they worked so hard to grow the countries economy in the past centuries the United States of America has been a country with a great and lovely vision there is no nation on earth that does not have a business deal with them although the whole world went through a lot of crisis which we all fought to overcome but has nothing to drain the countries economy
The world today is making sure to go against anything that will cause each nations downfall especially the United States being the world power

If the US economy enters a recession, the world enters a recession. It happened in the 1930s and 2008. But in 2022 despite the contraction in gdp, the US economy created around 2.7 million new jobs. That's why the higher officials in the US have argued that  the US economy is not in recession even if the GDP contracts for two successive quarters.

The world is suffering from the effect of the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Most globally sound economies are falling into recession. America's case is not peculiar because household debt is increasing because of high cost of goods and inflation. But America has a very sound economy that can withstand the effect of this global economic challenge. 

I think, Not only is the US economy currently in a recession, this is inseparable from the slow economic recovery since World War II. However, it is important to remember that the US economy is a strong economy. It won't go down forever and will soon regain its footing and bounce back.

The truth is that the US economy is undergoing a series of changes and will continue to do so. What we've experienced so far are just a few bumps in the road. As a result, there should be little reason to worry about the state of the economy. With governments around the world pushing ahead with stimulus efforts, employment appears to be at its most volatile at the moment. Another potential recession may lie ahead, but it's too early to say if it will happen or when it will.

the latest news CPI has dropped to 8.7%, of course inflation could happen because the CPI was at 9%, and that is the highest level since the last 41 years,
there is news on the internet and several newspapers, if America ends inflation and recession, then there is a possibility that Bitcoin will also be affected,
whether it will have a positive or negative impact, the important thing is to be careful

It appears we are in global slowdown for the most part but there are some mixed signals as to whether the US is in a recession, even though inflation makes it feel as such but unemployment rate and hiring sort of hints at something different.  In either case, time will tell, particularly this winter.

That's because the whole world went through the pandemic together, meaning all world had to stop, and that means everyone had to get paid even while not working, which meant printing money, which meant high inflation, which meant higher rates to withdraw that money from the markets, which results with recession. This type of track happened in all nations because we all went through the same things together.

I am not saying that it is the best available option, or a great life to be in, but at the very least I understand why it is happening. This is why I think it is clear to me why people are worried about something worse to happen in the future, because they saw how bad it could get.

The U.S. economy is already in recession, inflation is high, the Fed is raising interest rates, the stock market is in a bear market, and stagflation has all informed the recession. Diess responded that the U.S. economy was in a "transition period." But I don't think so.

The USA economy becomes a global economic and signal, if the USA recession economy, there will be many major impacts on global, namely directly affected, in my opinion the USA can always overcome economic problems, if there is a recession then this will not be long and the economy will soon recover.

Probably every economy is in recession. It is either a short term recession, long term recession or future recession. As the year goes by, purchasing power across the countries reduce. A property you bought with a certain amount this year, you might not get it again in same price next year. So, every country us travelling in same recession lane and inflation.
While the big countries might take a while and prove difficult to notice, smaller countries suffer much. But on the global index, it will surely be known that a country is no longer in it's stable state.

Governments do not have any other option, they are not bound by the ignoring capability of bitcoin, bitcoin may have caused a lot of people to lose a lot of money and there is nobody at the top to care, it's decentralized so when you lose a lot, then you lose a lot.

But in a government if your citizens are losing a lot, and they are in poverty and lost millions, you have to do something or you would not be elected again ever, you would be disgraced out of office and that is not something politicians would want. This is why I believe that they did this and they would have done it again if given chance because it allows them to get a good amount of "saving the face" chances when the elections come.

Like you said, a recession is defined as two consecuitive quarters of negative economic growth. In economics textbook terms the USA is in recession, but the Biden admistration is trying hard to avoid that word. The issue here is that we are in a high inflation environment that reduces economic growth. Usually this would be a stagflation, failing growth during times of high inflation. But the unemployment rate is not high enough for it to be a real stagflation. So the government argues that economic indicators are not accurate and economy is stronger than it appears. It remains to be seen how the growth rate will be next quarter, if its negative again I don't think people can avoid calling it a recession.

I think it is all politics playing out with the US economy. The government of the day trying to hide the reality on ground while inflation has increased in the economy, the less income earners are feeling the hit and the opposition watching and blowing the heat more. I believe the US economy is having some economic indices not favourable to them and that may be the effect of trying to protect the NATO territory also.

Yes, it is in recession. There is a clear definition of what a recession is and according to it, the US is in recession. What happens is that it is not in the interest of the Biden administration to say that the USA is in a recession for the next elections, as if the people on the street are not feeling the problems of the economy in their own flesh, and it is in the interest of the Republicans to try to make the economy look worse than it is, because although the economy is technically in recession, the downturn is not as bad as the Republicans want to make it out to be.

Guys, just stop with the inflation thing!

Japan has experienced a recession on the same levels as the US is doing now without having inflation at all, the great depression in 1929 happened while there was ample deflation, and inflation was barely above 3% during the 2007-2008 crisis in the EU and US, the largest inflation Greece recorded while near defaulting was 4.71 %.



Since when does the US, the largest exporter of LNG in the world need gas from Saudi Arabia?

Biden has rush to Saudi Arabia to ask for the oil and gas supply.
He has to survive midterm election and for that he has to win the heart of everyone. But I think Biden administration is a poor administration and I believe Trump America was a better America.

This is a sign of recession. Inflation is felt highly in an economy where recession is setting in but I'm not sure if USA is already facing this but it has witnessed increase inflation during the Biden administration. Another factor is when cash flow is not circulating. If fiat and the means of better living is in the hands of few and far from the reach of the masses. This is a sign for recession and high level of borrowing. I don't think US is lacking finance on their economy for now.

I think a legitimate case could be made for economies of the world being in a recession since 2020, when the COVID pandemic hit.

Drug overdoses, suicide, violence and crime all increase significantly during recessions. And I think everyone around the world is witnessing an uptick in these trends. Federal reserve (QE) quantitative easing and global monetary helicopter drops can mitigate the negative effects, over the short term. But eventually the shoe will drop and the harsh reality will be felt by everyone. If they haven't already noticed effects in their food and gas bills.

Hardcore doom and gloomers would say the US economy has been in a recession since the financial crisis of 2008, and never truly recovered. The US stock market did trend upwards since 2008. Which many view as an indication of a recovery. But I think that many are noticing stock market numbers can be influenced. Pfizer was delisted from the NASDAQ index. Exxon was delisted from the DOW. Considering pfizer and exxon both reaped high profits from COVID vaccines and rising cost of oil, respectively. The turn of events surrounding those delistings becomes an interesting topic.

The United States had entered into recession but it is still unclear to many people about what's going on. The Biden regime has been a time where we all have to fix our belts and get ready for the worse because this looks like the beginning of inflation and we should be expecting more. It is not in the US alone that inflation is affecting people and also in other parts of the world where people exist. The effect of the covid-19 had affected many countries making things to go wrong.

Inflation is not a component of recession. There are recessions both with and without inflation. However, inflation has typically preceded recessions that are the result of speculative bubbles or central bank action.

I think that whether there is a recession or not, the US economy is still in a very alarming position.  GDP growth for 2 consecutive quarters was "negative" as a result of the Fed's adjustment to raise interest rates, causing a decrease in consumption output/demand.  Accompanied by inflation, high energy prices, interrupted supply... I guess even if the US gets through the door of recession, the result will also mean that the US economy will also shrink, economic prospects  slow economy.

Perhaps the most optimistic thing for the US economy is the hope of Russia defaulting on its debt.  Lol

Given that others names the traits of a recession already, I'll comment on whether it's coming. I think the US economy is entering a recession (or, as I've heard some people call it, 'something that will feel a lot like recession). Maybe it's not fully showing yet because we're at a start. But to be fair, I don't think it's just the US; it's the global economy trend which is expected every once in a while and then with the pandemic it was supposed to become evident at some point.

Very interesting, It is very useful to start by understanding what a recession is, as it is often confused with depression. A typical year has its ups and downs. The economy goes up, then down—sometimes sharply. This can be an interesting time to invest in the market, especially if you have a very long investment time frame.

It's hard to say if the US is in a recession because many factors are considered. If the economic growth rate is negative, it is not a positive sign. The US economy has not faced this kind of turmoil in a long time. While some believe we are in a recession, others believe there is no sign of a slowdown in economic activity.

There are different ways to quantify recessions around the world, most countries see a decline of two quarters in a row as a recession. However it seems that America requires some other criteria to additionally qualify - like the unemployment rate rising during the same time period. It slightly makes sense, however we seem to be in this bizarre netherworld where all the indicators are flashing bright red and the sirens are wailing, but the stock markets are still up in the sky (well, besides the NASDAQ which was always highly overvalued). Generally though, it feels like this will be a slow and steady ride, but a big jolt could quickly cause a fast drop like we see in many recessions before - the shock always comes from somewhere new.

I don't think so. Inflation is on the rise around the world, but this doesn't imply that the US economy or many other economies are in recession. COVID has definitely hit the global economy hard, but it's already recovering in a slow and steady manner.

If inflation continues to rise, the US economy will definitely be in recession though I don't expect that to happen.

According to Investopedia, a recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. The term is typically used to describe a cycle that goes on for six months or more and lasts at least two quarters. In light of the Commerce Department's announcement that GDP declined by 0.9% in the second quarter, a second consecutive quarter of contraction, many are declaring the U.S. economy in recession. But, is it really? I don't think it's that simple.

Yes, we can say recession at this level is not severe because it's inflation that is fueling it. But, it becomes severe when other data signalling decline in economic activities.

And both are right, one of the conditions of technical recessions (as not everybody agrees with the 2 quarters period) has been met while on the other hand there are different signs that economic activity is not really declining with more and more jobs being added and taken and with the US finally inches away from reaching pre covid levels of employment:


Employment, consumption expenditure, manufacturing, retail, and trade sales.
When they all go down, you clearly are in a recession.

LE:
FixeD employment as it didn't make sense.

Inflation
Decrease GDP
Unstable economy
Unemployment
Increased Poverty
Natural disasters
Budget deficit

These are some of the elementary causes or determining factors to recession, when what you have on ground is unabke to meet uo with the needs demanded within a country after considering both the input and output of the natural resources and man power but still lacking far behind


When there's a constant inflation and poverty levels increasing instead of decreasing while all the above mentioned determinant rrmain constant

Yes, I think the two negative consecutive GDP growth rate is a symptom of recession.

Slow job growth in the private sector, low consumer spending, low wage increases, among other things.

Some of these are lagging indicators. You've seen hiring slow down, but job layoffs and unemployment won't happen contemporaneous to the GDP reports. The economy is generally slow moving unless there's market shock. Anyone suggesting that the U.S. economy is not in recession will point out these lagging indicators which will eventually catch up to capture the true state of the U.S. economy. They won't have these numbers to rely on for long.

The economic data of the US is clearly showing a two consecutive negative GDP growth rate. While some analysts believe that the economy is in a recession, economic advisers are saying there is no major decline in economic activities.

What are the core elements of a recession?

How do we quantify a recession?