Topic: Is there a way to actually get to know the real price of Bitcoin? (Read 303 times)

A good question, something different from technical analysis these days many traders are focusing on blockchain data to find answers for the price movement. I think one key many of them have found is the Inflow/Outflow data on the blockchain. Traders try to study the flow of bitcoin on exchanges assuming that if the bitcoin is coming on the exchanges it is coming for selling and if the bitcoin is going back from exchanges to wallets it might have been brought and now no more dumps would come. Similarly if stablecoins reserve on exchnages increase it's a sign that either we might see bitcoin pump or alts pump.

Unfortunately this is not possible, but think about this positively, if you do not have that tool and we know that it s impossible to create it then this means that no one else has it either.

So while the size of our capital can vary all traders and investors are competing under similar circumstances which means that as long as you improve your performance and your ability to predict the markets then you will make money, the markets are the fiercest meritocracy in existence, so as long as you put the effort you will eventually make money, something that is not always true in many other activities.

There are not that many things in life that has "real price" by this logic as well. Like what is the "real price" of a brand new iphone? Is it the price that is sold at Apple stores? Is it what Apple pays for sweatshops in China? Is it what the Chinese spend on creating it? What is it? We really can't say what is the "real" price of it.

So, basically everything is worth at what people are willing to pay for it, if nobody (or very little amount) of people were willing to spend $9999 for a brand new iphone, you would drop the price, and if a lot of people are willing to buy at $49 then you increase the price, in the end you would find a price that is both profitable and also not too little or too much. Same goes for bitcoin but in a decentralized manner, whatever people are willing to pay for it, is the true price of bitcoin and that is it.

But with the volatility of the market and abrupt changes, even knowing the real price is way impossible as surely it will change from time to time.
Relying upon CMC and Coingecko to know the real price can't assure that it all be reliable unless you are in the focus to exchange as updates can't be done instantly. It was advisable to use the top exchanger if we want to know how the market works and to be more updated than using CMC.

He wants to determine his imaginary price of Bitcoin without the use of exchange which is absurd to ask because trading is what gives value to Bitcoin so the only way to determine the price of an asset is through the exchange which is the venue for traders to buy and sell there Bitcoin without using escrow.

CoinMarketCap and Coingecko are price aggregator which they gather all the price on the exchange using the API to automatically updates its record and average all the price to get a more stable price display for Bitcoin.

In the first place, what is the reason for the OP to know the real price of Bitcoin? Because as we all know, you can't get exact of it since there are a lot of exchanges now or depends on people how much they are selling their Bitcoin.

Another thing is I am curious about some websites like coinmarketcap or coingecko, since these websites are one of the ways to check the price of any cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin, are these websites used to get the average price of exchanges then the price they will display on their site is the average or what?

The price on the exchange is what another buyer on the opposite is offering their bitcoin to be sold at. When these two match the order gets executed. But strictly speaking, this comes to play only when fiat is being used as a mode of payment and thus the price gets quoted in fiat units. 1BTC always remains 1BTC just like 1gm of gold remains 1gm of gold provided there is zero attrition due to chemical reaction.

So there is nothing called right or wrong in terms of bitcoin price. If someone is selling bitcoin for 1$, then the price is one dollar, but why would they do that unless they are being an idiot in terms of making a profit, but it is defenitely possible on an OTC trade done personally.

Bitcoin has successfully demonstrated that the third party can indeed be eliminated, and it's quite simple to send some BTC from one non-custodial wallet to another. As for the price, some maintain 1 BTC = 1 BTC but I disagree that it's the best way to approach it. Money is defined by its purchasing power, and there's a big difference between affording a pizza for 1 BTC, a good bicycle or a small flat. So the value does matter (it doesn't matter if we measure it in the USD for convenience or not, but taking it into account is very rational). As for manipulations, I don't believe there's enough evidence to prove that big markets like Bitcoin or Ethereum are being manipulated by whales. Sure, there are some media events that seem to trigger FOMO or panic selling from time to time, but it's different from a rich entity pouring money in or out, causing disruptions to the market. And you can believe the price is too much or not high enough, but there's no 'real' price of Bitcoin, and there's no way to predict where the price will go.

You are correct true it is suppose to be is there a way to know the trend or a way to ride the trend because as far bitcoin is, no accurate time for sell or buy is known all is under probability even with the professionals , they look at support and resistance and also they watch and analysis the charts before taking a decision.

How many times we said that bitcoin is not built for eliminating blah blah blah.... in most topics they talk about bitcoin will eliminate cash but here you talk about bitcoin will eliminate exchanges but if there are no exchanges how can people trade their bitcoins?

Okay you can remove centralized exchanges but there are also p2p exchanges and decentralizes exchanges and if an exchange is legit, they wont allow fake trades and manipulation. The price of bitcoin is high because it is already predicted or calculated based on different things like its supply and maybe to some factors that you mentioned above but there is no way to accurately predict its value because it is not stable.

If there is a way, then no traders would have lost their money in Trading. Bitcoin price cannot be predicted accurately, we can only predict what's gonna happen to the market, but still not 100% accurate all of the time, that's why a lot of traders still lose their money on the process of getting to know the cryptocurrency world very well.

The only thing we can do is to ride the trend in order to make profits, not go on the opposite way of the trend.

There is no reliable way to predict bitcoin price because bitcoin simply responds to the law of supply and demand.The real price of bitcoin is the price it has at any given moment. If the price of bitcoin is 60k, its users have decided. If it is 50k, its the same thing. Bitcoin is not something predictable,certainly nobody on this forum can predict that for you.

The fiat comparison is not there to make sure bitcoin has a value, fiat itself doesn't have any value, it only has value compared to items you could buy with it. If you spend 999 dollars to buy a phone, you have a vague idea of how much 999 dollars worth, it worths one phone, so if someone asks you 999 dollars for one watermelon you know that it is too much. Without the items you can buy, the fiat that you hold in your hand as banknote has zero value, it only has as much value as the items it can purchase.

Bitcoin is similar, but instead of checking the item per item calculation, we just use fiat which is already doing that and makes it easier for us to calculate the value.

Haha well of course it is not as expensive, but at one point, 10 million or 100 million makes no difference when the attacker has to consider profit above all (why else to manipulate right?) and it is hard to imagine a scenario where a person has enough to SPEND 10 million and make profit too. But of course I get your point

No, that is really impossible otherwise, Bitcoin becomes centralized. It is a way to think that it can never be changed even we know there are manipulations happening in the market. Whales, rich people are aiming to change the position of the market but still, they fail.
Thus, knowing the real price of Bitcoin in the future can never happen even we use all the tools to make TA and no chance that history repeats itself.

I'm doubting if exchanges set price of bitcoin. Everything about bitcoin is decentralised and no direct manipulation of bitcoin. What I think is that demand and supply are two major factors that can change price. Exchanges will not be able to manipulate the bitcoin price, if they do it means exchanges should have prices that is far different from each other.

The main thing that could really affect market price is to those big movements made out by neither those whales/institutions or simply with those retail traders that do share up on the same mindset

or decisions in mind depending on what would be the market sentiment would be.Knowing on whats the real price  then this would be a never ending one considering that we've been having this

market for a decade but still the price couldnt be determine on whats the ending point.As long recognition and adoption do continue out then it would never be a stable one.

It doesn't expensive as 51% attack but definitely need few millions of dollars to shatter the trading price because atleast the trade should be executed for 30 to 50K BTC.

When the price increase it becomes impossible that is why people need new strategies to become billionaires.

bitcoin wasn't intended to have an intrinsic value of it's own it still relies on fiat to attain a value but your non custodial wallet gives you full privacy to your bitcoin and this non custodial wallet have saved the issues of this third party as most non custodial wallet provide the exact bitcoin prices even  as prices fluctuates

Forget the whales what controls the market is demand and supply in every economy including Bitcoin. The whales don't manipulate the market rather the bitcoin market responds to the demand and supply curve which means anyone with the highest offer can also make the market dance to any direction with the whole process published on the distributed ledger that is not altered or manipulative

I think there's no way to predict bitcoin prices because as we can see it, it has no fixed pattern. Its price keep changing everyday thats why we cant really tell of what is the exact price of bitcoin.Bitcoin price/value depends on how valuable the market. Its prices depends on the supply and demand.

Not on a big enough exchange. Anyone even trying to do so now with the impossible size of the orders will be at best enjoying a few minutes of desired price. The cost of doing that to me is the same consideration as the cost of 51% attack... no one has the financial resources to pull it off. AND even if they did, the rest of the market/players will pull back so quickly and regroup.

If the exchange is small enough to try price manipulation, then it's probably not worth it.

Its is not actually an easy task to manipulate the price, it comes with huge price tag as well for example currently bitcoin is trading at 42K so if a whale wants to increase it upto 45K then he needs to create multiple sell orders gradually until that price reaches so that people will be manipulated meanwhile any user can take that into an advantage as well.

You will never get the right price for Bitcoin because the price of Bitcoin is completely decentralized. Bitcoin prices vary slightly on different exchanges. However, you can visit different exchange sites and find out the exact price.

Well, people had to wish that they would know the real price of Bitcoin years from now. But unfortunately, the market hasn't been designed like that, and even using all of these tools that you have mentioned, that still it gives no way to point out the real price of Bitcoin instead, we are still predicting it.

We can't change the volatile nature of the market as that was supposed to be. Whether we like it or not, that remains unpredictable, or else, we, therefore, say that manipulation wins over it.  

I have talked about a scenario that mathematically can be responsible for pumping.

and to quote further "50k USD isn't big enough"

You are contradicting yourself.
How come the buy order will be big enough to be completed "exactly at the moment" and at the same time,the order will not be completed?This doesn't make any sense.

Let's say that a crypto whale creates a buy order for 50K USD for a relatively big amount go BTC.
The buy order will be executed immediately,because everyone would want to sell at a price,that is way above the current Bitcoin market price(42K).That's instant profit.
In the end,the crypto whale will just buy a bunch of overpriced Bitcoins.This might pump the Bitcoin price for a while,but the price pump will be weak and temporary,because a FOMO phase cannot be created by a single  buy order.

How I wish there will be something that could predict the Bitcoin's price and I owned it. Only me.  There is no need for speculations and prediction anymore. The sad part is there is none and if it really exist then we won't be talking here anymore. Consider it just another coin manipulated by someone else or simply a stable coin.
Would you still buy it? Will it still be a new type of asset? Or you could just save your money in your piggy bank because it's just the same, probably better.

This is why you can't see the real-time supply and demand via blockchain because you can't see what's going on inside the exchanges as they have hot and cold wallets.
You may see the in and out transactions in btc addresses but you have no idea when they actually trade it inside the exchange platform. So the aim of knowing the actual supply and demand is not possible. You will only base it from what's going on in the market. And to determine the actual figure will only be futile move and a waste of time.

Movements in the supply and demand can only be calculated after the fact, and more importantly you will not get the full picture.

When you buy or sell any coin in the exchange this does not generate a transaction on any blockchain, the exchange just update their database about the size of your holdings and that is it, and since most traders and investors keep their money at exchanges for the majority of the time then you will not see how the demand and supply changes inside exchanges on the data reflected on the blockchain.

No. This is currenty physically impossible. You would need live info on everybody including their mind processes. How would you know if some really rich guy wants to buy Bitcoin during the next few minutes? You can't. Not unless he tells someone.

The closest you can get to predicting the price is looking at the same chart that everyone else is looking at and well....Try your luck.

Although personally, for me, it isnt luck. Its an investment. If I can take a profit, I take a profit. If its a bad trade, I won't take any losses by selling. And it stays a long term investment.

predict the price? .. no

know the floor/roof of value. yes

take the hashrate in terrahash(exahash*1m).. divide it by 110
then you know how many current gen asics are mining it efficiently.
multiply that number by $12000 to give you the 2 year ROI of hardware cost of efficient asic.
divide that by 105,000 blocks(2 years) then divide that by 6.25 coins. and you got the hardware cost per btc.

then. using the same 'how many current gen asics' multiply that by 3.25
and you have the hourly electric use. divide that by 6 then divide again by 6.25 and you have the power consumption per btc.
(efficient asic: 110thash 3.25kw $12k hardware 2 year lifespan)

now to multiply that by 0.04 for cheapest mining electric rate.. (cheap electric countries like asia/eastern europe)
add on the hardware cost and you have the 'floor' base value.

now take the 'power consumption per btc' again and multiply it by 0.38 for the expensive mining electric rate
and add on the hardware cost per btc and you have the 'roof' top value (expensive electric countries like remote islands, japan, germany)

the PRICE will pretty much always sit somewhere between the floor and the roof.
no one can predict where about between the floor and roof it will be at any time.. but what you can see is if the price is nearer the floor, then its a good deal.. if its nearer the roof then its premium

if done right. .. use example hashrate of 190exa
you should get floor of $37572.29437
you should get roof of $88469.26407

Bitcoin is a speculative asset so it's difficult to determine its real value. Fortunately, there are inputs to mine Bitcoin and you can use those inputs to estimate Bitcoin price.
ASIC cost
Electricity cost
Maintenance cost
Internet connection cost
etc.
Bitcoin has its intrinsic value and is not created from thin air.

Good luck taking into account the likes of market sentiment and human emotion into the calculation; which are unarguably the most important factors when talking about factors that decides the price of a certain asset.

Bitcoin eliminated needing a third party to transfer, store or generally use your own money. And it does that perfectly.

First of all exchanges have nothing to do with bitcoin and elimination of third parties as I explained above.
Secondly exchanges don't decide the price, the people who trade on those exchanges do.

Altcoins are all manipulation but bitcoin manipulation is small and is shrinking as the market grows.

It is nearly impossible for the exchange to create anything fake that affects the market. Lets say the exchange places fake buy orders, it is possible that people sell into those buy orders that means the exchange has to pay them fiat so it costs them money and you can no longer call the order "fake" if they did pay money!

Another thing that happens is that the whale sells the bitcoins he has but the price doesn't go down and he loses money. For example last week a lot of whales did that trying to prevent the price from rising above $40k and lost millions of dollars.

It is a speculative asset and like any other speculative asset, it is bound to go up and down. Bitcoin was created with the idea of an alternative to fiat but it gained its own uses with time. How you are going to use it, is your choice though.

That is a big assumption to make. Do you have proof of the same? If not, then dont mention such things but keep your ramblings to yourself.

The price of 1BTC is always 1BTC. But that would be the prevalent statement if there was no fiat in this world. The only way to buy/sell bitcoin is using fiat and hence the price of bitcoin comes in USD or others. It is therefore not possible to predict the price, just like you cannot predict when the jackpot of a casino would be fulfilled.

Price depends on supply and demand, but you have something in mind, please do come up with it, I would be happy to see how it works.

Exchanges is needed to make transcation organized as well thet are the one’s who gives the amount or money we needed in return. It will depend on us on how good we are to do transactions. Some prefers P2P for lesser fees pr just thru exchanging their preferred token. Though for safer transactions we opt to choose known exchanges and for that we are required to pay for their system. If we prefer a lesser amount or no fees then p2p is what we need but it is risky.

Exchanges will not usually only provide a "last" price with regards to the price on their exchange, but will rather provide a series of bid prices in which their customers are willing to buy bitcoin, along with the amounts they are willing to buy, along with offer prices, along with the amounts they are willing to sell.

If you trust an exchange that provides the above information, you can use the above information to determine your own measure of a price of any coin you own or that you want to buy.
It is not possible to actually determine the actual hash rate. It is also not possible to determine the actual amount of electricity consumed to mine blocks (not is it possible to determine the cost of electricity to mine a single block).

If you ignore the above, there is still the issue that there have historically been limiting factors that prevented the difficulty (which is a general summation of the above measurements) from rising as quickly as the price. One reason for this is that there are limits as to how many miners can be manufactured in a given time period.

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If you currently hold coin, the value of the coin is the amount someone is wiling to pay for your coin at any given point in time.

I assume that supply and demand can be very accurately calculated by Blockchain data. And supply and demand can be calculated using Blockchain data by checking the active and inactive wallets and how much bitcoin flowed in from new orders. it can easily be manipulated by third-party exchanges but cannot be done by blockchain. A lot of exchanges were involved in spoofing and wash trading and who know at the time of you reading this, there is an exchange out there doing spoofing.

A Miner's average revenue and the Bitcoin network difficulty have a direct/indirect relation to the long-term value of Bitcoin to some extent.

When someone put buy or sell order, it's not actually a fake order if the order got filled... also when a whale put large amount buy order it's not always dump the price and vice versa.

Exchanges aren't manipulated the price, it will depends on supply and demand created by people. Back in few months ago when Bitcoin price still around $60K, India is banning Bitcoin and it caused panic selling on their local exchanges (e.g. WazirX) it ever touch $40K even though the international exchanges price still $60K.

The mining revenues and electricity consumed is depends on different factors and where you live, also hashrate and timestamp block doesn't affect Bitcoin price. I'd say the real price of Bitcoin is what you actually see in CMC, Coingecko, or top exchanges.

The "third party" that's eliminated is the requirement to have your funds held by a custodial company; because with Bitcoin, you can just hold it using a non-custodial wallet and no one can take away the coins from you. It's nowhere near realistic to expect that literally every single "third party" platform will be eliminated. That's just wishful thinking. We're always going to need third party platforms here and there; and what matters most is that you're not required to use them.


Look. There's definitely manipulations in the market, but that's with ANY other market. And it seems like you seem to think that these types of manipulation maneuvers are something that's guaranteed to work well for the "wHaLe" or something, because it's definitely not. It can definitely work well for them, but it could just as easily go south for them.


Seriously dude, imagine if we could lmao.


Demand is what will dictate bitcoin's price, not on-chain metrics. This should be pretty obvious.

Bitcoin was solely built for the purpose to eliminate the third party and yet we let the third party[i.e. exchanges] decide the price of Bitcoin today.

Bitcoin & Cryptos come with a downside of manipulation as for example:

Consider an anonymous whale "A" created an order for Bitcoin big enough to be completed exactly at that moment and this data is taken into account with the Institutions, Investors, and especially the EXCHANGEs which in turn creates a fake situation in the market about the demand of Bitcoin which then taken into account by charts, gives us the prediction of the price rising and in turn the order by the whale is not yet completed.

This, in turn, raises the price of Bitcoin, and meanwhile, the order is still not completed, the Whale "A" gets a good position to sell some bitcoins which again dumps the price. Now again the Whale has a good position to Buy the same bitcoin he/she sold at a very lower price.

This is what happens when you have big Bitcoins in your hands.

Aside from this many exchanges also manipulate the price of Bitcoin by creating fake Buy/Sell orders.


Is there a way to actually predict the price of Bitcoin?

consider using Data from the Blockchain itself, for eg. the Timestamp of the block, mining revenue, cost of the electricity consumed to mine the blocks, Difficulty in the hash rate, etc.