Is there a way to determine the price after selling or buying BTC?

Wapfika

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on March 09, 2023, 06:16:16 PM

There are online tools that show order book depth on big exchanges, but I doubt you can reliably predict what will happen to the price just by looking at the orders. They can be taken down or placed instantly as a reaction to some event by bots. And price movements can cause cascading effects - one whale dump could make other whales or traders panic and place sell orders that weren't there 1 minute ago. Or maybe it's the opposite, maybe there's a while that waits for dump to buy low and counter it with their pump.

I’m aware on the bots that keeps placing order both buy and sell but this bot has limited liquidity and very noticeable since just keep change the order price but use same liquidity.

I’m not expecting that there’s a free tool like this that can clone copy an exchange orderbook real time. I’m just curious on this since DEX can provide a price impact percentage when a certain number of tokens enter on the buy and sell field. I wonder why CEX doesn’t have this kind of feature while they definitely have the full control on the CEX orderbook liquidity since it’s centralized.

Closing the thread now. Just PM me in case some know this.

hatshepsut93

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There are online tools that show order book depth on big exchanges, but I doubt you can reliably predict what will happen to the price just by looking at the orders. They can be taken down or placed instantly as a reaction to some event by bots. And price movements can cause cascading effects - one whale dump could make other whales or traders panic and place sell orders that weren't there 1 minute ago. Or maybe it's the opposite, maybe there's a while that waits for dump to buy low and counter it with their pump.

wajik-tempe

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CEXs (Centralized Exchanges) typically have order books that record the liquidity of the exchange and can process the price impact of a large buy or sell order on the order book. In fact, many exchanges have APIs (Application Programming Interfaces) that allow developers to access and analyze this data in real-time.
Regarding the potential impact of Silvergate's fold in crypto and their liquidation of Saylor Bitcoin, it is difficult to say exactly how much of an impact this would have on the current order book of exchanges such as Binance, as it would depend on the size and timing of any such liquidation

jeraldskie11

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Quote from: joker_josue on March 09, 2023, 04:34:39 AM

Quote from: jeraldskie11 on March 09, 2023, 03:57:15 AM

Quote from: joker_josue on March 09, 2023, 04:34:39 AM

Not necessarily, the chart shows a price increase, not an increase in supply.

Usually if there is a lot of supply and little demand, the price goes down. If someone wants to sell a coin, it is available to lower the price to sell fast.

It just an example and this happens only if there's a fixed circulating supply.

The candlestick in the image shows that the demand is so much higher than the supply that's why the market does an impulsive move to the upside.

Quote from: tranthidung on March 09, 2023, 05:22:55 AM

Quote from: jeraldskie11 on March 09, 2023, 03:57:15 AM

Quote from: tranthidung on March 09, 2023, 05:22:55 AM

You are saying opposite to the truth.

I apologize. This is supposed to be division symbol instead of multiplication Grin

There's a lot of cryptocurrency who has the same mechanism of Terra Luna, I mean has "elastic supply". If the circulating supply increases it "surely" affects the price. As I mentioned above, to know the price of a currency, we have to follow this formula:
Market Cap ÷ Circulating Supply= Price

cryptoaddictchie

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Quote from: Wapfika on March 09, 2023, 02:22:04 AM

I'm trying to picture out what will be the outcome price in an event that a whale that sell or buy specific amount of Bitcoin. I'm looking for a tool that records the liquidity of exchange orderbook and can process how deeper or higher the price impact when a certain quantity of coin dump on that orderbook like the price impact on DEX.

Is this possible on CEX. I become curious on this after reading Silvergate recent fold in crypto. In event that they might push to liquidate Saylor Bitcoin to pay his loan. I'm wondering how huge will be the impact on the current orderbook of exchange let's say Binance.

Im not sure if the liquidity or the impact can be quantify on this simply they cex working centrally and thats ie jeaky its hard to measure up. Only if this is gonna be open to public and on track wholr liquidity being inject on the pool. Unlike when using dex, which us more patient and the pool can be seen or monitored and the price stabilize already when there is some sell orders on bulk. Dextool usually shows the changes.

joker_josue

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Quote from: Wapfika on March 09, 2023, 06:52:28 AM

I just want to get a hypothetical price impact for a certain number of Bitcoin once it dump on exchange. A minor difference on exchange orderbook snapshot is acceptable since there’s no way the liquidity will change a huge percentage on a short time interval. Also I’m curios on how much Bitcoin will a certain exchange can absorb once a whale dump massive holdings. I’m asking this based on the actual liquidity on exchange not the total supply of Bitcoin on all the exchange.

But this data is very biased, as many of these exchanges have bots moving currency.
So the perspective that this information presents is very wise and can give a totally wrong idea of reality.

Wapfika

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Quote from: tranthidung on March 09, 2023, 05:22:55 AM

Quote from: Wapfika on March 09, 2023, 02:22:04 AM

I'm trying to picture out what will be the outcome price in an event that a whale that sell or buy specific amount of Bitcoin. I'm looking for a tool that records the liquidity of exchange orderbook and can process how deeper or higher the price impact when a certain quantity of coin dump on that orderbook like the price impact on DEX.

Is this possible on CEX.

You must use on-chain data from providers like Glassnode.com. If you are not afford to spend money, you can enjoy Glassnode Insights' free weekly reports there.

Alternatively, Whale shadows chart from Lookintobitcoin.com.

Quote from: jeraldskie11 on March 09, 2023, 03:57:15 AM

Market Cap x Circulating Supply = Price

You are saying opposite to the truth.

Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating supply.
Fully-Diluted Market Cap = Current Price x Max supply.

Bitcoin circulating supply won't suddenly increase exponentially like Terra $LUNA token or many shit tokens because it can not be minted by a click, therefore any significant increase in Market Cap is certainly related to considerable price change.

Thanks to this, Actually I’m aware on Glassnode tool that’s why I asked for a tool as an alternative since I can’t paying those premium just to get such kind of data for my own curiosity.

I just want to get a hypothetical price impact for a certain number of Bitcoin once it dump on exchange. A minor difference on exchange orderbook snapshot is acceptable since there’s no way the liquidity will change a huge percentage on a short time interval. Also I’m curios on how much Bitcoin will a certain exchange can absorb once a whale dump massive holdings. I’m asking this based on the actual liquidity on exchange not the total supply of Bitcoin on all the exchange.

tranthidung

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Quote from: Wapfika on March 09, 2023, 02:22:04 AM

I'm trying to picture out what will be the outcome price in an event that a whale that sell or buy specific amount of Bitcoin. I'm looking for a tool that records the liquidity of exchange orderbook and can process how deeper or higher the price impact when a certain quantity of coin dump on that orderbook like the price impact on DEX.

Is this possible on CEX.

You must use on-chain data from providers like Glassnode.com. If you are not afford to spend money, you can enjoy Glassnode Insights' free weekly reports there.

Alternatively, Whale shadows chart from Lookintobitcoin.com.

Quote from: jeraldskie11 on March 09, 2023, 03:57:15 AM

Market Cap x Circulating Supply = Price

You are saying opposite to the truth.

Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating supply.
Fully-Diluted Market Cap = Current Price x Max supply.

Bitcoin circulating supply won't suddenly increase exponentially like Terra $LUNA token or many shit tokens because it can not be minted by a click, therefore any significant increase in Market Cap is certainly related to considerable price change.

joker_josue

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Quote from: jeraldskie11 on March 09, 2023, 03:57:15 AM

So when the Market Cap increase's 10%, the price will also increase 10%. So the price would be 11 instead of 10.

Not necessarily, the chart shows a price increase, not an increase in supply.

Usually if there is a lot of supply and little demand, the price goes down. If someone wants to sell a coin, it is available to lower the price to sell fast.

jeraldskie11

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Market Cap x Circulating Supply = Price
If there's any changes in both of them, price will also change.

Let us say the Market Cap is 1 Billion; the Circulating Supply is 100 Million.
If we divide that, the price would be 10.

So when the Market Cap increase's 10%, the price will also increase 10%. So the price would be 11 instead of 10.

In my opinion, this is the reason why Centralized Exchanges didn't make a tool for that, not because they can't but because it's not necessary. If so, they have to know all the order books in all exchanges so that they can calculate.

But, maybe this could help you. Take a look at the chart below in order to know how many percent increase in a previous day or any specific time frame.

Almnsory

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There are several tools available that can help determine the price impact on an exchange's order book after selling or buying BTC. One popular tool is the "order book depth chart" which displays the buy and sell orders at different price levels. Additionally, several websites and trading platforms provide real-time data on an exchange's order book liquidity, including volume and price spread.

Regarding your question about possible impact on order book liquidity in the event of a whale sell or buy, it is difficult to predict with certainty. However, many factors can influence the price impact, including the size of the transaction, market sentiment, and liquidity of the market. It's essential to gather as much data as possible before making any trades or decisions.

pooya87

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It depends on a lot of factors and it is very difficult to analyze based on liquidity or even by having snapshots of the order books. No whale can single-handedly cause a significant price change specially since this is no longer 2013 where >85% of the trades take place in one exchange. In other words even if the whale had a lot of money they still have to dump on all exchanges to cause a significant drop.

What causes the drop (market manipulation) isn't the whale selling alone, it is how the market reacts to the market manipulation. Consequently it depends on the market situation. For example back in 2017 price was rising up at certain time around mid year but some bear-whales didn't want to accept that and tried manipulating the market by dumping large amounts. Long story short, price continued going up and those whales lost a lot of money. The opposite is true also meaning if the whale dumps when the price is already going down the panic sell can become a lot bigger.
As you can see this is not something you can see in order books since when they start panicking, new orders will be placed after the panic starts and possibly after the whale dumped.

_act_

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Quote from: Wapfika on March 09, 2023, 02:22:04 AM

Is this possible on CEX. I become curious on this after reading Silvergate recent fold in crypto. In event that they might push to liquidate Saylor Bitcoin to pay his loan. I'm wondering how huge will be the impact on the current orderbook of exchange let's say Binance.

It is not possible. Assuming I am a whale, I do not have any coin on an exchange, I suddenly moved millions of dollars worth of the coin to an exchange and I use market price to sell it, if the coin is having a huge marketcap, having a high trading volume on the exchange, the trade would be filled immediately and all you will start to notice is huge drop in price of the coins. It would have even happen faster than you think.

joker_josue

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I think this will not be possible. The price of Bitcoin is determined by supply and demand.

Usually when there is a lot of BTC for sale in the market, and few are available to buy, the price tends to go down. If the demand is high, but there is little supply, the price will rise.

Now how will the market react, if a whale dumps a lot of BTC into the market? We do not know.
Phase at current value, I would say that it would not generate a great impact, because many are within their average purchase price, and therefore would certainly buy more.

But we really couldn't know how the market would react, whether or not to buy this highest offer in the market.

Wapfika

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Bitcoin makes the world go 🔃

I'm trying to picture out what will be the outcome price in an event that a whale that sell or buy specific amount of Bitcoin. I'm looking for a tool that records the liquidity of exchange orderbook and can process how deeper or higher the price impact when a certain quantity of coin dump on that orderbook like the price impact on DEX.

Is this possible on CEX. I become curious on this after reading Silvergate recent fold in crypto. In event that they might push to liquidate Saylor Bitcoin to pay his loan. I'm wondering how huge will be the impact on the current orderbook of exchange let's say Binance.

Topic: Is there a way to determine the price after selling or buying BTC? (Read 143 times)